bluewave

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

March even into April is some of their prime season in NNE/Adirondacks ski country.

Yeah, nice event for the ski resorts.

5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Up to 33.5 degrees with 1.12”, ice slowly melting here. 

40 and rain here.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

My wife’s cousin lives in Pine Bush, she said there’s real good icing up that way

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

I believe it, I’m just a bit south of there. Based on the traffic maps the roads are ok but I’m sure there some sights to be seen if I have the ice at 400’

Looks like a top 10 wettest March day potential.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Last year or the year before GA had a very damaging freeze for the peach crop after a freeze hit right after our new normal much warmer than average “winter” started the growing season early. Maybe this will be a more frequent occurrence in this new climate normal with the growing season starting earlier and earlier but still prone to cold snaps. 

The worst hard freeze that I ever had in my garden back on the LI South Shore was in November 2017. We had just come off the warmest October on record with numerous days in the 70s and 80s. The 70s persisted into the first week of November. This allowed my garden to have one of my latest fall blooms. All the impatiens were really blooming strong like it was still mid-summer into November. My Encore Azaleas had a unusually good fall bloom also.  So when we had 3 consecutive near record lows in the mid 20s around November 10th all the Impatiens and the Azalea blooms quickly shriveled up. The Azalea never came back the next spring so I had to replace it with some beautiful fountain grass which was much lower maintenance. That fall was a preview of the following winter into spring with the period of Arctic cold after Christmas coexisting with the historic February 80° warmth. So a continuation of the short Arctic outbreak pattern surrounded by much more impressive and longer lasting warmth. 

1 hour ago, dWave said:

Yeah, I got down to 28. Trees etc in bloom look unscaved. Many of the cherry blossoms were past peak anyway, and the later blooming varieties haven't opened yet.

The really damaging freeze around the region was last May when some spots in Upstate NY got down into the low 20s. 
 

https://www.wamc.org/2023-09-19/a-late-may-frost-caused-some-ny-farms-to-lose-most-of-their-apples

The evening of May 17 Critz turned on a large frost fan which helps mix warmer air from above with cooler air at ground level to try and prevent frost forming on the flowering trees. Then the temperature dipped down to 23 degrees.

"32 is okay," Critz said. "30, 29, you start having a little damage maybe 10 percent. You can go down to like 27 you'd be like 50% damage, but usually there's enough blossoms even if you lose 50% of them, you're still going to bear a good crop. Then it went down to 23 and just killed everything."

The apples he does have, have a frost ring around them. These apples will be pressed to make sweet cider and hard cider.

Looks like NYC only got down to 29°so it avoided the hard freeze some of the colder guidance was calling for. The GFS actually did better again that some of the other guidance which had mid 20s. So hopefully there won’t be much damage to the early blooms. 

A real soaker on the HREF with a 2.5” to locally 5.0” range where the best banding and training sets up. 
 

43 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the odd thing is I hear from people lately who have never had water and now they do-shows how high the water table got this winter....

October 2005 was the beginning of the shift to people having basement flooding when they never did before. Especially when I was living back in Long Beach. Numerous months since then with near or over 10” of rain at spots in the area. 

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

3-4 inch rain totals when all is said and done would not surprise me. It's going to be absolutely torrential in the metro area on Saturday 

This could push parts of the area close to 10.00” on the month. 
 

25 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The cold is going to be short lived

Today will be only the 10th day in NYC since 12-1 with a -5 or lower departure. But the +5 or greater days since then have been at 53. All the extended warmth makes these colder days seem colder than they really are since we get used to the warmer temoeratures.

Figures that the strongest MJO 8 since December would wait until the start of astronomical spring. So we may have to be really patient for our next 70° day. It could take until April if the models are correct about the next 10 days. 
 

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It depends what is meant by "related" in the bold.

If by that it coincided - temporal - than sure. 

However, global temperature response should not occur in the same temporal frame - the atmosphere has a noted lag wrt to warm ENSO phase.  Last March, the air and sea well outside the ENSO district ...everywhere, bombed temp apace and faster than the onset;  that does not fit either statistics, nor baser understanding of geophysical "relationship" between air and sea -

Think of it this way, the El Nino has to couple to the atmosphere first - it was not coupled when the heat flash took place.  In fact, the flash took place when technically the La Nina was still on the charts ...in process of attenuation, but still observed.  The El Nino was in fact manifesting underneath and I would also proffer the reason the super Nino failed is probably because these outer modes were in some variant of destructive interference.

Maybe such an extreme SST rise leading into the El Niño altered the usual timing of the global temperature response surrounding this event. 
 

59 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 at some of the model trends for this weekend. Good thing the rain’s desperately needed and there’s plenty of sand left to be eroded on the beaches! 

NYC is on track to make it to the top 10 wettest Marches. Some really hot summers followed years with this much March precipitation. 
 

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah... not to sound dismissive (ha)  really but that doesn't explain why both air and sea from pole to pole unilaterally increased prior to the onset of the warm ENSO phase.

The timing of the jump in temperatures this year was related to the onset of the El Niño. But the magnitude of warmth was a function of the record heat being released from the oceans. Much more heat available this El Niño than previous ones. So even a significantly weaker El Niño than 2015-16 had more warming potential. But it will still take more research specifically as to why this lead to a sharper temperature increase earlier in the year than past El Niño events. 
 

My guess is that this warming spike is related to the rapid subtropical SST warming which has occurred since the last super El Niño in 15-16. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the PDO. This pattern emerges only at the early stage (a few decades) of anthropogenic warming when absorption of heat concentrates in the upper ocean. On centennial (for the Northern Pacific Ocean) to millennial (for the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Hemisphere) timescales, when deep ocean water warms, the greatest ocean warming is expected to occur in the subpolar region, as indicated by paleo-reconstructions and the long-term and equilibrium climate simulations.

Extremely steep lapse rates and some CAPE should allow for gusts over 40 and small hail with the convection later today. 

Nature 627, 467 (2024)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00816-z

12 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

The 1980s and 1990s were no comparison to the warmth and lack of snow during the 2020s so far. I will use LGA stats to compare since NYC has been consistently undermeasuring snowfall. While we are only half way through the 2020s, we would need a significant cool down and snowfall increase next 5 years to avoid the warmest and least snowiest decade on record.

If global and local temperatures continue rising at the same rate, then we will eventually have a whole decade with the average snowfall under 10” and the average winter temperature over 40.0°. 
 

LGA 2020s so far snowfall average….15.8”….DJF ave temp…39.2°

………1990s………..27.1”………………………….36.7°

………1980s………..21.0”…………………………34.5°

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave @donsutherland1 Here is why all the stratospheric and SSWE hype failed all winter long. There is no denying that we are in the midst of major climate change/AGW anymore. We have to start rethinking the way we forecast long range winter outlooks
 

Yeah, it would be interesting to see specifically which aspect of the warming in the system lead to this outcome. Notice the extreme volatility of the AO between positive and negative. Maybe the IO to WPAC MJO driven Rossby wave train competing with the El Niño was interfering with the coupling. So every drop of the -AO was answered by and quick increase. 

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Who needs south shore beaches anymore anyways? This one if it sits for a couple days might be a TKO. 

Yeah, beach erosion and coastal flooding have become the new normal with the more extreme storms and rising sea levels. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro and CMC are very wet just off the coast-with the usual correction N and W we could get a ton of rain

 

Much more model spread than we typically see around 5 days out. The potential for heavy rains is there if everything gels. But this is a lower confidence forecast than usual since cutoffs in spring are the hardest for models to resolve. Each model has a different low position at 120 hrs. 
 

59 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Nice for ski country but too late as some are already closed

They did much better last March with the -NAO and record MJO 8.

Gorgeous photos of the roll clouds on the South Shore yesterday.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0ehVZDaAGaxnLjfGngNWK82TSG5WHZYNaYbRUhBtJ3u6WtsFnrfUuyyhYjH31z153l&id=100000492031103

It’s the areas that sustain a hard freeze in the mid 20s that are most susceptible to plant damage after an early bloom.

https://hortnews.extension.iastate.edu/faq/hard-freeze-early-spring-damaged-newly-emerged-growth-several-trees-and-shrubs-will-plants