bluewave

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A trip through 7/8/1/2 would be the holy grail-still in lala land though but better trend last night.

The key is getting the successful transition from 7-8. But we have plenty of time to see how things play out.

7 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Ahem.

 

Now you believe me huh 

Believe you? I have been saying that the EPS was probably too weak going into phase 6. So we probably get a 6 looking composite around the 17-24th. That is a transition phase with lingering influences from 5 with the -PNA. If we go phase 7 last week of January, then we get improvements in the EPO and PNA. But the real prize people are hoping for would be getting to 8 first week of February. Would match our recent backloaded winters theme. Hopefully, this works out.

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

That's a big change on the GE FS rmm plots for the mjo. Takes it through 6 very Amplified almost to phase 7 at the end. Yesterday had the wave dying off in six and looping back towards five. Also if guidance is remotely correct starting next week Thursday we look to more seasonable to below-normal temperatures while the mjo is still in  its warm phases

We can always get transient cool shots behind cold fronts in phase 6. But root for the GEFS to keep going  to phase 8 by the start of February. 
 

29 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

hmm so in years 1932 1950 and 1907 when their was no global climate change january 1-15 were warmer..

That 1932 record warmest January still stands for NYC. It’s the only winter month that hasn’t set a new warmest record since 2015.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Top 3 warmest winter months in NYC

Dec

50.8...2015

44.1...2001

43.8...1984

Jan

43.2....1932

41.4....1990/1950

40.9....1913/2006

Feb

42.0...2018

41.6...2017

40.9...2012

NYC already in the top 10 warmest January 1st to 15th periods before the warmest temperatures arrive.

13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Any reports of rain or snow on the South Shore of Long Island or Central New Jersey Radar returns look good there

Light rain just began here in SW Suffolk at 40 degrees.

This is the lowest snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere on January 6th since 2007.

14 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

 

Run to Run Day 10 adjustment in the means / More trough in the east, more ridge out west.

 

 

 

 

The PNA goes pos later in the period. The trough splits and a piece heads east.

 

Let`s not start moving the goal posts and start talking about the PNA in here, the last few days we have been talking about the squashing of the SE ridge after day 12.

Today it`s after day 10. ( this fix began 2 days ago on the EPS ) 

If you want to have another convo about the PNA we can have one, that takes longer to develop.

 

But the SE ridge that you and I have been talking about over the last couple of days is doing exactly what I said it would do, feel the effects of the trough being ejected off the WC in the LR.

 

I think most on here care more about what the SE ridge does when a storm is ejecting out of the Plains and Rockies. A flatter SE ridge in the means relative to the next week was expected post phase 4-5 peak. So you need to see improvements in the EPO and PNA before things get more interesting. But you will want to see those improvements make it to day 7-8 to have more confidence in the forecast. The 
day 10-15 range is always subject to change once within the 6-10. And the the 6-10 still changes once to within days 1-5.

The day 10 EPS still shows a strong -PNA pattern. That’s what people are concerned about. So anything too amped could easily cut. The difference between the old and new runs at that time is the more +EPO.

New run

Old run

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes but that was a pattern that was bad for the coast.  It was good for areas to the far northwest of us.

 

Yeah, all cutters and huggers. Only 1.9“of snow at at JFK for 8.03 of total precipitation in December. 

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I see that system over the weekend is trending drier as the storm track is trending even further west and north of us.  Really more like a summer pattern, not even a spring pattern.  You're going to see thunderstorms all the way into Canada!

A near record +5SD jet streak over 200KT along the gradient in SE Canada. 

No surprise that the SE ridge is correcting stronger this weekend with such an extreme MJO 4-5 event.

New run

Old run

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

You can see the RMM plots are starting to correct towards the colder phases. They have a bias cod in the long range typically. 

That’s actually one of the EPS biases. It tends to be too weak with MJO 6 after phase 5. Probably another reason that we could see plenty of model volatility after phase 5.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0862.1

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yup, that was prevalent during the late 80s and early 90s.  Note how cold our Jan avg temps were during the 80s with low snowfalls.  Thats a good side effect of our increasing precip totals since 2000- it's now difficult to get a below avg temp month combined with below avg snowfall, however it can still happen if the pattern dictates cold/dry followed by warm/wet followed by cold/dry, etc.  And such a pattern is very stable and difficult to dislodge.

Storm track is very important. Just looking at the DJF temperature departures in NYC doesn’t tell the whole story for snow. March 2017 and January 2019 a great examples of this. But the one common denominator for NYC is that it needs a cold winter to reach 50 inches of snowfall.

NYC winter temperature departures since 2010 and seasonal snowfall.

18-19....+1.2....20.5

17-18....+1.1....40.9

16-17....+4.2....30.2

15-16....+5.9....32.5

14-15....-3.7.....50.3

13-14....-2.2.....57.4

12-13....+1.7....26.1

11-12....+5.4....7.4

10-11....-2.3....61.9

09-10....-1.3.....51.4

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Some people are too sensitive and dont want to hear different reasonings. Bluewave is a good poster but he seems a warmnista. Nothing wrong with that though.

That is an outright false statement. The actual pattern is the only thing that matters. Being biased cold or warm just degrades the discussion. Just get out of the way and let the  pattern speak for itself.

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's possible that the SE ridge could be weakened enough to get a nice battlezone going b/w the ridge and the colder air to the north-put us on the right side of the gradient and we'll be in business...but need the ridge to be weakened a fair amount or we see what we're getting this weekend-60's and rain while NNE gets snow and ice.

Yeah, we need the a strong enough -EPO to at least bring the PNA back closer to neutral. A little -PNA is enough to pump the SE ridge out ahead of storms. I think the last time a strong -PNA really produced for us was back in 2014. 

You can see the struggle that the models are having as they transition from phase 5 to phase 6 longer range. Phase 6 composites move the NPAC ridge closer to the West Coast. So those wavelength changes may be hard for the models to properly resolve until under 10 days. We can see more of a -EPO emerge when we start getting closer to 6-7. But you need a strong enough -EPO response to really knock the SE ridge down from such an amped up phase 4-5. 

Just now, PB-99 said:

 

I did not see an attempt to correct is false statement that the cold was delayed. you quickly posted a day 10 to day 8 fix.

 

So I felt it was my obligation to let the posters know that the EPS did not delay anything. 

 

Don`t be sensitive. 

It’s not my job to correct what other posters say about the LR. You are probably more sensitive than I am. You will notice that I just let the winter is over type posts roll off my back . These always pop up when people get bummed out by the current pattern. You seem to get angered by them. But you shouldn’t since opinions can’t drive the actual pattern. Defending misrepresentations of my statements isn’t being sensitive.

2 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

@bluewave this the post you responded to.

 

You posted a day 10 to day 8 change , when yesterday`s 12z was the 1st to correct ( that`s what he was alluding to and then the 0z run drove more trough into the N/E )

Jan 21 is day 15. The EPS did not delay the L/R.

 

The EPS corrected again on day 11.

 

Responding to a post doesn’t mean I am endorsing the posters specific POV. Notice how I brought the discussion back to the day 6-10 and mentioned the uncertainty of the longer range.

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

A good thing about late Jan is that you dont need temps to be abnormally cold to get a significant snowfall event.  Storm track is essential though.

 

It always comes down to getting favorable storm tracks. We can have snowy warm patterns or relatively snowless colder periods. Just look at the difference between January 2019 and February 2017.

NYC

Jan 2019....32.5....-0.1....snowfall....1.1

Feb 2017....41.6....+6.3....snowfall...9.4

Just now, PB-99 said:

 

I am not starting arguments. I am just pointing out what the model actually did at 12z yesterday and 0z this morning that should have everyone aware that the EPS sped up the trough and did not delay it.

 

Sorry man, when I am here I am factual not argumentative. 

You misrepresented what I said,  so that is not factual. I never make definitive statements about the period beyond day 10. I always say that if something happens then we could see a particular outcome. But nothing is set in stone. 

1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

Don`t post that we corrected warmer in the LR when we did not. 

We did with the the current day 8 from the previous 10. Why do you like to start arguments about the long range when the models  have the least skill. It just isn’t worth it. 

19 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

This is from 2 days ago , the LR got colder in means overnight from day 12 on The correction started yesterday. 

Day 12 on is still outside the good range of the EPS. If that 12 day survives to day 8, then we have something. 

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would appear the people who said the the models were too quick with the change to colder yesterday, were correct, they have backed down from what they were showing yesterday. Looks like a slower, post 1/21 change now..

The Jan 20-31 period will come down to the MJO and how it interacts with the pattern. Models seem to agree that we into phase 6 by the 20th. It’s always tricky trying to time out any 500 mb changes past day 10. Since model errors in the day 8-10 time frame just seem to get compounded further out in time. You can see how the SE ridge is a little stronger day 8 than the previous day 10 forecast indicated. 

New run
 

Old run

12 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

There's definitely cold air around, this weekends storm is showing that, we are just a bit too far south to access it in this pattern. 

Near record jet streak to our north with such an extreme temperature gradient.