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bluewave

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  1. Month...Year...Station...Rank

    3...2010...EWR...7...NYC...6...LGA...5...JFK...4...BDR...2...ISP...3

    4...2010...EWR...1...NYC...1...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...2...ISP...2

    5...2010...EWR...4...LGA...5...JFK....4...BDR...4...BDR...4...ISP...5

    6...2010...EWR...2...NYC...4...LGA...2...JFK...1...BDR...2...ISP...1

    7...2010...EWR...3...NYC...2...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...3...ISP...2

    8...2010...EWR...10...LGA...8...BDR...10

    9...2010...EWR...5...LGA...6...JFK...7...BDR...7...ISP...7

    ...............................................................................................

    4...2011...EWR...10

    6...2011...EWR...9

    7...2011...EWR...1...NYC...5...LGA...10...JFK...2...BDR...4...ISP...3

    9...2011...EWR...7..LGA...10...BDR...4....ISP...4

    11..2011..EWR..5...NYC...6...LGA...6...JFK...5...BDR...3...ISP...4

    12..2011..EWR...5...NYC...5..LGA...5....JFK...7...BDR...3...ISP...6

    ................................................................................................

    1...2012...BDR...8...ISP...7

    2...2012...EWR...3...NYC...2...LGA...2...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...2

    3...2012...EWR...1...NYC...2...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...2

    4...2012...LGA....4...JFK...4...BDR...3...ISP....4

    5...2012...EWR...7...JFK...3...BDR...3...ISP...3

    7...2012...EWR...5...JFK...6...BDR...7...ISP...7

    12..2012..EWR..10...LGA..8..JFK...10...BDR...7...ISP...5

    ................................................................................................

    7...2013...EWR...5...NYC...8...LGA...3...JFK...3...BDR...1...ISP...2

    ................................................................................................

    12..2014..BDR...10...ISP...9

    .................................................................................................

    5...2015...EWR...2...NYC...2...LGA...3...JFK...2...BDR...2...ISP...3

    8...2015...EWR...7....NYC...4...LGA...4...JFK...2...BDR...3...ISP...4

    9...2015...EWR...3...NYC...1...LGA...2...JFK...1....BDR...1...ISP...1

    11..2015..EWR...1...NYC...1...LGA...3...JFK...2...BDR...4...ISP...1

    12..2015...EWR..1...NYC...1...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...1

    .................................................................................................

    3...2016...EWR...3...NYC...4...LGA...3...JFK...3...BDR...3...ISP...2

    7...2016...EWR...9...LGA...4...JFK....5...BDR...5...ISP...5

    8...2016...EWR...2...NYC...3...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...2

    9...2016...EWR...3...NYC...5...LGA...3...JFK...5...BDR...2...ISP...5

    10..2016..BDR..9...ISP...8

    11..2016..EWR..9...LGA...5...JFK...7...BDR...10

    ...............................................................................................

    1...2017...EWR...10...LGA...6...JFK...6...BDR...1...ISP...6

    2...2017...EWR...1....NYC...2...LGA...1...JFK...1....BDR...2...ISP...3

    4...2017...EWR...4...NYC...2...LGA...2....JFK...2...BDR....2...ISP...1

    9...2017...EWR..10..LGA...8...JFK...7....BDR...8...ISP...4

    10..2017..EWR...1..NYC..1....LGA...1....JFK...2...BDR..1...ISP...1

    .....................................................................................................

    2...2018...EWR...2....NYC...1...LGA....2....JFK...3....BDR...3.....ISP....1

    5...2018...EWR...6....NYC...6...LGA....2....JFK...5....BDR...4.....ISP....4

    8...2018...EWR...5....NYC...9...LGA....2....JFK...5...BDR....2.....ISP....4

    9..2018....EWR...7....LGA...6...JFK.....8....BDR..6...ISP.....3

    ......................................................................................................

    4.....2019....EWR...10...NYC...8...LGA...10...JFK...10...BDR...9.....ISP...5

    7.....2019....EWR...7.....NYC..10...LGA...3....JFK....4....BDR...3.....ISP...2

    9.....2019....LGA...8

    10...2019....EWR...9...ISP...#7

    ....................................................................................................................

    1....2020...EWR...9...NYC...9...LGA....7...JFK...6...BDR...3....ISP...6

    2....2020...EWR...6...NYC...6...LGA....8...JFK...4...BDR...5....ISP...3

    3....2020...EWR...7...NYC...8...LGA....5....JFK...5...BDR...3...ISP...5

    6....2020...EWR..10..LGA...3...BDR...5.....ISP....5

    7....2020...EWR...5...NYC...7...LGA...1.....JFK...4...BDR....1...ISP....4

    8....2020...EWR...10..LGA...5...BDR...3...ISP....6

    11..2020...EWR....4...NYC...1....LGA....1...JFK...4...BDR...5....ISP....4

    .................................................................................................................

    3....2021...LGA.....9....JFK....10.....BDR....8

    6….2021….EWR…..2…..NYC….6……LGA……5…..BDR….ISP…..6

    8….2021….EWR…..2…..LGA…..6…..JFK……10…..BDR….3…..ISP….5

    9…2021…..EWR…..4…..LGA…..7…..JFK……7……..BDR…..5….ISP….4

    10..2021….EWR…..1…..NYC…..6…..LGA….3……..JFK……3….BDR…..3…..ISP….2

    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
     

    7…..2022……EWR…..#2….LGA…..#6….JFK….#4…..BDR…#10….ISP….#7

    • Like 2
  2. Statistical tie for 2nd place with 2007 on NSIDC.

    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

     

    Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss.

    That September ice extent nevertheless fell to second lowest in the satellite record is hence surprising. Averaged for July through August, air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (1 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average over much of the central Arctic Ocean, and near average to slightly higher than average near the North American and easternmost Siberian coasts. Reflecting the stormy conditions, sea level pressures were much lower than average in the central Arctic during these months.

    Why did extent fall to a tie for second lowest with 2007? The 2016 Arctic melt season started with arecord low maximum extent in March, and sea ice was measured at record low monthly extents well into June. Computer models of ice thickness, and maps of sea ice age both indicated a much thinner ice pack at the end of winter. Statistically, there is little relationship between May and September sea ice extents after removing the long-term trend, indicating the strong role of summer weather patterns in controlling sea ice loss. However, the initial ice thickness may play a significant role. As noted in our mid-August post, the upper ocean was quite warm this summer and ocean-driven melting is important during late summer. The science community will be examining these issues in more detail in coming months.

  3. James Overland has a nice presentation on the record winter warmth in the Arctic this year which set the stage for the record low sea ice extent levels that were experienced during May. The more favorable polar vortex pattern for sea ice this summer prevented this from being the year which beat 2012. 

    MAY.png

     

     

  4. New record sea ice minimums seem to take longer to achieve than most people expect. I can remember the articles calling for an ice

    free Arctic by 2013 after the record low set in 2007. That record held on for 5 more seasons... longer than it was thought at the time.

    And after the record was finally broken in 2012, it is still holding on 4 years later despite renewed calls by some for an ice free Arctic

    by 2015 or 2016. So it will be interesting to see how long it actually takes to get to 1 million sq km or lower on NSIDC. Then the

    discussion would probably go to how long to zero. That may take a while due to compaction of the remaining sea ice

    up against the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.

  5. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

     

     

    Looks like it was displaced a bit too much toward the Asian side though to produce the type of cold we saw in those other seasons. (1996 had the coldest June/July on record and 2013 was top 5) Still, it prevented a record from occurring when the ice was well beyond record lows in May.

    It's as extreme a pattern reversal that you are going to see from the winter and spring record warmth to cooler summer. That PV was so strong

    that the Pacific sector North of Alaska to near Siberia was actually colder than 2013 was.

    16.gif

     

    13.gif

     

     

  6. This is officially the slowest melt season from June 21st to August 21st on NSIDC going back to 2007.

    The only reason we are challenging 2nd or 3rd place is due to the record warmth and dipole pattern

    from the winter into spring. The 2012 record low will last at least 5 years just like the 2007 record low did.

     

    NSIDC 6/1-8/21 loss since 2007

    2016...6005

    2015...6328

    2014...6369

    2013...6599

    2012...7944

    2011...6735

    2010...6247

    2009...6451

    2008...6585

    2007...7156

  7. The 2012 record is safe no matter how much of an impact this storm has due to the reversal of the pattern in June.

    We would have had a good shot at at least rivaling the 2012 finish had that dipole persisted into June or July.

    https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

    While there are still three to four weeks to go in the melt season, a new record low this September is highly unlikely. A simple projection method developed by Walt Meier at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center uses daily ice loss rates from previous years to estimate possible trajectories of ice extent through the rest of the melt season.

    This approach yields a range of minimum values based on how sea ice loss progressed in previous years. By selecting from an average of multiple years, or using loss rates from a specific previous year, the method yields an estimate of the likely range of the minimum sea ice extent. As of August 14, using daily ice loss rates based on the 2006 to 2015 average yields an average projected 2016 minimum extent of 4.33 million square kilometers (1.67 million square miles). Using the slowest (recent) August to September decline, which occurred in 2006, yields a 2016 minimum of 4.76 million square kilometers (1.84 million square miles). Using the fastest rate of decline, from 2012, yields a 2016 minimum extent of 4.06 million square kilometers (1.57 million square miles). These two years bracket a reasonable range of expected 2016 minima. It is possible that this year will have decline rates that fall outside the range of previous years. However, this approach indicates that it is very unlikely that 2016 will have a minimum below 2012’s value of 3.39 million square kilometers (1.31 million square miles). A projection from August 1 was submitted to the Sea Ice Outlook.

    Figure4-2.png

     

    • Like 1
  8. Slowest loss of sea ice on NSIDC going back to 2007 from June 1st to August 9th. This has to be the most dramatic reversal

    from a record warm winter and spring dipole pattern to summer polar vortex pattern on record. The summer dipole pattern

    that dominated the 2007-2012 era has been replaced by more of a polar vortex pattern since then with the exception of

    last July. We really need that type of a pattern to beat 2012 and make a run on the first ice free minimum. 

     

    NSIDC sea ice losses from June 1st to August 9th since 2007:

    2016...5137

    2015...5442

    2014...5538

    2013...5629

    2012...6914

    2011...5921

    2010...5660

    2009...5645

    2008...5708

    2007...6614

  9. I compiled all the Newark summer temperature data going back to 2010.

    The 90/95/100 stats are for the warm season and the departures are JJA.

     

    Year....90...95...100...JJA

     

    2010...54...21...4.....+3.9

    2011...31...16...4.....+3.2

    2012...33...17...3.....+1.7

    2013...25...10...2.....+1.1

    2014...15....2....0.....-0.4

    2015...35....8....0.....+1.4

  10. Interesting new study out on Greenland melt.

     

    http://jasonbox.net/more-greenland-melt-under-cloudy-conditions/

     

     

    Our new study reveals that under warm and wet conditions, atmospheric heat can melt the lower 1/3 of the Greenland ice sheet elevations more than under sunny conditions. This was especially so during the 2012 heat wave when a record warm North America loaded the air with heat and moisture that drifted to Greenland.

    We recorded the largest ever observed daily and annual surface melt rates on Greenland under PROMICE. The 8-11 July, 2012 heat wave produced 0.9 m (3 ft) of ice melt for a yearly total of 8.5 m (28 ft), actually 9% less than the 2010 annual value of 9.2 m (30 ft). The peak daily melt rate was 0.28 m (11 inches) occurred on 11 July. To capture such high melt rates, we use a 12.4 m (40 ft) long ruler.

     

    A persistent air flow that drove air up and over west Greenland prevailed for 6 summers (2007 to 2012), parts of 2015, and in other years. This is the same kind of “atmospheric river” that can replenish California’s moisture deficit and cause flooding. In the case of Greenland, if it’s summer and air temperatures are high enough, there will be no snow, just rain and atmospheric heat delivered to the ice surface can do untold damage to the surface.

    The study decomposes the ice melt energy into contributions. Together, atmospheric heat and condensation delivered more energy to the lower elevations of the ice sheet than absorbed sunlight during pulses in July and August 2012. It’s counterintuitive that under cloudy conditions there can be more melting, especially because the surface is so dark in this lower 1/3 of the ice sheet elevations. It  goes to show that the ice sheet melt does not get a break just because the sun is blocked.

    Climate models under-represent this effect, by our estimate by a factor of two, and with the frequency of warmer air masses driven over Greenland expected to increase with climate change (Collins et al., 2013), the impact of atmospheric heat and condensation will probably bring Greenland ice melt loss faster than forecast.

     

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