bluewave

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially  when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other.

This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th.

5 minutes ago, doncat said:

The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

 

I think that they can do better if they try. It would make things so much easier. It’s tough having to wade through all those posts since it takes the attention away from the actual weather. Makes it harder to find relevant posts that get lost in the mix.

There are probably a few things that we can do to make this place run more smoothly. We should refrain from posting certain types of maps that have been proven to be very low skill.

Any snowfall maps beyond 120 hrs

10:1 snowfall maps in marginal conditions.

Any very long range OP runs such as the GFS from 240 to 384 hrs

Some helpful hints to improve the model discussions

When discussing a 6-10 day storm threat or pattern, try to rely more on ensemble means until we get closer to 120 hrs.

Remember that human nature likes to extrapolate the current conditions forward. This means in warm pattern we get a bunch of winter cancel posts that seem to derail the threads. The same thing happens in cold patterns when some posters claim that it won’t eventually get warm again. And if a warmer forecast is presented when it’s cold, don’t go after that poster for hating winter or having a warm bias.

Respect your fellow posters and never shut down  conversations that presents varying opinions about an upcoming forecast.

Following these guidelines will improve the long ranges forecasts and discussions.

This is officially the warmest midnight to 6am hourly temperatures of all-time at Newark in January. Newark has been at 65 to 66 degrees with 3 new hourly records and two ties.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&month=jan&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

when did I say I was taking it seriously ?

 

While you hope we get a favorable storm track for heavy snows at the coast, just pointing out a colder pattern coming around the 20th isn’t a guarantee. That’s why storm tracks are so important. Late last January with a similar 500 mb pattern we only got some light snows. 
 

23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

GFS is not cooperating-WHERE IS THE PRECIP MAP FOR THE GEFS ????

 

Ensembles begin to correctly pick up the general 500 mb pattern in the day 8-10 range. So I never really pay attention to what the operational GFS shows for an individual storm that far out in time. The NCEP should follow the ECMWF lead and stop running the OP beyond 240 hrs. Notice how the ECMWF only has the control and ensembles day 11-15. And those are often too low skill to be of use that far out in time.

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. I agree.

Forecasts beginning around the 20th look very close to the phase 7 composite.

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The MJO had an amplitude of 3.131 when in it was in Phase 4 on January 11, 1986. The highest January amplitude when the MJO was in Phase 5 is 2.712, which occurred on January 16, 1990.

Looks like we have a chance to beat both those readings the next few days when the site updates.

Looks close to the MJO phase 4 record for January.

&_ACCESS_wind
        2020           1           9   3.0007334     -0.43843362               4   3.0325940     

53 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Actually, we have had colder days in August, twice in Central Park history has a daily August maximum failed to reach 60 degrees.

Yeah, the 70 at Newark was warmer than 8-29-17.

The 68 at POU is only 2 off their all-time January high of 70 in 2007.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kpou

This was the 6th year that Newark made it to 70 degrees in January. It was the 4th time since 1998.

1 hour ago, frd said:

And, as as Don stated yesterday,  that higher amplified state in 7 increases the odds of snowfall in the East towards the end of Jan. 

bluewave,  any thoughts on the developing NAO domain block we are seeing in the GFS and the Euro ?

Do you believe it will indeed be transient in nature and then giving way to the more pronounced - EPO  ?

I know Isotherm thought if we were going to get any significant pv disruptions and  a -NAO it would be later in the winter. Wondering the implications for Feb and even March and what happens too with the NAM state.     

We can always get a transient -NAO from a wave breaking event. But more lasting -NAO episodes are usually associated with MJO phase 8 and SSW’s.

This is another case of the SE ridge surpassing expectations in situations that allow for it. While not as extreme as what happened in February 2018, this is close to the record 500 mb height for January at OKX.

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. 
 

Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth. 

I am guessing that it is related to the MJO. We lingered in 6-7 later last January before the push into 8 during February. But we are much more amplified this year than last year. 
 

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change 

Funny how similar that general forecast 500 mb pattern is to January 20-31 last year.

Impressive temperature jump in NW NJ from 45 to 61 in an hour.

More extremes from the jet stream. This is a 5 SD max near 220KT.

NYC already approaching the record high and it’s only 7 am.

Current temperature in NYC 59

This is pretty cool.

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

The historic snowfall run from 12-13 to 17-18 was epic on Long Island. My guess is that these amounts for a 6 year period may have been a 100 to 200 year event under older climatology. But who knows what the return period will be for this to occur again under our new more extreme climate.

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now. 

It’s very difficult to predict how long the lull periods between active benchmark tracks will last. We had the record breaking 95-96 season followed by the 96-97 to 01-02 lull. The only decent snowfall season in that 6 year run was 00-01. Things really picked up in 02-03 and were great until 05-06. We saw another downturn from 06-07 to 07-08. Some slight improvement for 08-09 before the big ramp up lasting until 10-11. Then another big step down in 11-12 before another uptick in February 2013. Nemo in February 2013 opened up our greatest 6 year benchmark track run through March 2018. Since last year, we have been in a consistent cutter or hugger storm track regime. There were also a few disappointing southern stream suppressed storms like in early December 2018. So the big question is when the rapidly deepening benchmark storm track will make a return.

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, but that first March 2018 storm took a perfect track and still skunked the coast. We had some nice track last winter but no cold air around. With the pac improving I wouldn’t be shocked to see the track you are looking for. But  to not expect mixing issues along the coast in any storm is unrealistic expectations.

Like I said, mixing issues with KU  benchmark storm tracks are not a problem. We had some mixing issues with the last March 2018 storm and still went 10-20 inches of snow. But these 1-3 or 2-4 front end thumps then sleet or rain have been a big disappointment since last winter. That’s  what  we get with storm tracks to our west that cut or hug. Hopefully, we return  to a rapidly deepening benchmark storm track.

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The early March snow here last year (2019) was all snow and I'm on the coast (I know it wasn't further south)

The South Shore only had 4 inches last March vs 30 plus in March 2018. Nobody minds some mixing if you get double digit snowfall total. But you need rapidly deepening dynamic systems to the south to pull that off. Hopefully, the intense benchmark storm track will come back to life soon.