bluewave

29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January. 

Yeah, we need to get a shift in that ridge position north of Hawaii to allow more of a -EPO to develop. We usually see the ridge position pull back toward NW Canada and Alaska during and El Niño February. Hopefully, that ridge north of Hawaii doesn’t interfere. That region experienced a historic marine heatwave in 2019. You can see how persistent that ridge has been this winter.

NYC finally dropped below 23 degrees. This was the 2nd warmest minimum temperature from 12-21 to 1-16 on record.

Central Park   FAIR      22   5  48 NW8    

12 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Great to see you post here. Yeah at the  end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. 
 

I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. 
 

On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol. 

 

I think that there is also another wild card. We keep seeing that ridge build over the warm pool around Hawaii. Very tough to get the ridge into Alaska with that feature there. I mentioned the ridge pull back that we normally see in an El Niño February the other day. I just hope that this more Niña-like feature doesn’t interfere.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Good post by Ryan Maue about the pile of garbage models have been this winter:

Ryan Maue

 

@RyanMaue

 

I'm taking even more interest in Weekly weather forecasting since much of it lately is awful. Forecasters have strong biases that aren't rectified leading to repeated busts. So, is winter canceled or not?

The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny.

Impressive CONUS warmth for the 1st half of meteorological winter.

The warmth for the 1st half of February was more impressive to the north of NYC. It was the 2nd warmest on record at Albany and 6th warmest in NYC. That’s +14.6 in Albany and +10.2 in NYC.

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Do you think will then get more of a classic Nino February? The stj is definitely going to become more active and with are at the coldest climo part of the year. We don’t need -25 over are heads to snow in late January 

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

The departures and rankings for the first 13 days of January have been even warmer to the  north of the NYC area. Albany is a +14.2 with NYC +9.9. This was the 2nd warmest for Albany and 7th warmest in NYC.

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. 
 

It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th. 

 

Perhaps this extreme MJO event can jump-start the El Niño. We are getting a decent WWB event unfolding now in the Pacific. I would like to see the northern branch stop competing with the southern stream. A strengthening El Niño could allow the STJ to take over with less  interference from disturbances moving through the Great Lakes.

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss. 

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January. 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I actually turned off the heat here Saturday to Sunday-set it back on last night before we went to bed.    Amazing

Big differences between what the forum and the general public consider to be a good winter. I guess the 15-16 and 16-17 winters would be considered a perfect compromise. Many of us got our 40 inch snowfall seasons. While the general public had their 40 degree winter with lower heating bills.

I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record.

We have made it to 70 and above for each winter month since 2015.  Top 5 warmest temperatures in December and January. A new record warmest in February at 80 degrees.
 

New all-time January record highs in Boston and Providence.

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

And then the grande finale

 

 

I just don’t get that while the storm is in progress. I saw a bunch of similar  posts while I was  trying to go through the storm observations.  You guys really had your hands full. The Euro and EPS forecasts from 7-8 days out were superb.

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/10913-evaluation-forecasts-hurricane-sandy

The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees.

34 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Half of them get hidden.  Mods can't be on here 24/7.  Every Christmas I'm asked what I want.  And all I want for Christmas is for people on here to act like adults! 

I wasn’t referring to the moderators. The post was addressing ways for the members to make this a better place. You guys have enough to do without having to worry about this type of behavior. The whole moderating team does an amazing job here. I can’t imagine what it was like for the moderating team to have to delete all the Sandy is going to bust posts that day. It was a stressful situation enough without all that side drama. My electricity was going on an off and the bust posts made the thread very hard to read.

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

69 degrees 

67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows.

65 degrees here on the South Shore and it feels like spring.

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Great educational nugget for me, thank you.  And my sincere request for everyone: Please keep posts respectable and don't troll.  This isn't the place for it.  I am here to learn and expand my knowledge.  Not here to witness childish drama.  Thanks.  We all share a passion for weather and let's keep that front and center. 

This paper discusses the lag with the MJO.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0&

This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites.

This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8.

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

so now you are saying the short range MJO analyses is incorrect along with the long range beyond day 10 ??????

Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially  when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other.

This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th.

5 minutes ago, doncat said:

The problem is some posters are just a broken record...same thing every post. Ever notice how with some, you know what they posted even before you read it lol.. It's amazing how well that works for some.

 

I think that they can do better if they try. It would make things so much easier. It’s tough having to wade through all those posts since it takes the attention away from the actual weather. Makes it harder to find relevant posts that get lost in the mix.