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bluewave

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    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

    It's got to be a daily record for the territory. That total makes Maria the second wettest TC on record for Puerto Rico, behind only the October 1970 tropical depression which dropped a little over 40" over the course of many days.

    Yeah, the short term rainfall rate for Maria was off the charts. That 1970 event happened over 6 days.

    http://www.floodsafety.noaa.gov/states/pr-flood.shtml

    Another case of a slow moving tropical depression, resulting in rainfall over multiple days across the island, set the stage for the devastating floods of October 1970. The focus of the rainfall core shifted from day to day, but some areas experienced copious amounts of rainfall on consecutive days, causing rainfall amounts that could be measured in feet. The highest total over those 6 days was 38.42 inches at Jayuya and 41.68 inches at a station near Jayuya. Jayuya had a 24 hour total of 17 inches.

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    It's not really a true eye. It's convection trying to wrap back around what's left of the original vortex. I think you will see it tighten up later today. The latest IR loop seems to show the beginning of this.

    It's a 40 mile punchhole type eye following the disruption going over Puerto Rico yesterday.  

    Although the large, 40 n mi diameter, eye of the hurricane is still
a little ragged-looking, it is gradually becoming better defined,
and a ring of cold cloud tops is intensifying around the eye.
    • Like 2

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

    Until helicopters can survey damage it is impossible to know exactly how bad this storm was.  my guess is that it is going to be catastrophic.  The media has been camped out at the best hotels in San Juan.  When I visited Puerto Rico and toured the countryside there were so many poor towns with crappy construction.  These vast areas are where the real damage will be.  Power is out so information will be very spotty for a couple of days.  Also the power grid is so exposed.  Unlike the US mainland with Irma you can't just bring in crews from other areas.  Power will be out for many weeks, months..   Also lets not forget Dominica.  I haven't even looked today to see what exactly happened there.  

    Unfortunately, the aerial views look like Homestead after Andrew.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/dominica-pictures-show-total-destruction-after-hurricane-maria-n802931

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    In Guayama, on Puerto Rico's southern coast, video clips posted on social media showed a street turned into a river of muddy floodwaters. In the community of Juan Matos, located in Cataño, west of San Juan, 80 percent of the structures were destroyed, the mayor of Cataño told El Nuevo Dia, and half of the municipal employees lost their homes.

    "The area is completely flooded. Water got into the houses. The houses have no roof. Most of them are made of wood and zinc, and electric poles fell on them," the mayor told the publication.

    In the capital of San Juan, buildings shook and glass windows shattered from the force of the storm. Residents of some high-rise apartments sought refuge in bathrooms and first-floor lobbies, but even those who sought out safe ground found themselves vulnerable.

    Buildings that meet the island's newer construction codes, established around 2011, should be able to weather the winds, Rosselló said. But wooden homes in flood-prone areas "have no chance," he predicted.

    Macarena Gil Gandia, a resident of Hato Rey, a business district in San Juan, helped her mother clean out water that had started flooding the kitchen of her second-floor apartment at dawn.

    "There are sounds coming from all sides," Gil Gandia said in a text message. "The building is moving! And we're only on the second floor, imagine the rest!"

    Parts of Hato Rey were underwater. An electric gate for her building in the neighborhood was blown off, Gil Gandia said.

    In the lobby of Ciqala Luxury Home Suites in Miramar, a neighborhood in San Juan, Maria Gil de Lamadrid waited with her husband in the lobby as the rain and wind pounded on the hotel's facade. The door of the hotel's parking garage flopped violently in the wind. The sounds of the storm were so loud that it was hard for hotel guests to hear each other speak.

    Gil de Lamadrid spent the night in the hotel after evacuating her nearby 16th floor waterfront apartment, which has been prone to flooding during previous hurricanes. But even in a luxury hotel room, Gil de Lamadrid could not evade flooding; on Wednesday morning, inches of water began to seep into her hotel room through the balcony doors.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/20/hurricane-maria-takes-aim-at-puerto-rico-with-force-not-seen-in-modern-history/?utm_term=.13ca24280b97

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Paragon said:

    Chris, surrounding areas reported wind gusts in the 110s (113-117 mph).  Strongest gust I can find anywhere is 137-140 mph (112 sustained) on a small island just to the east of PR.

     

    The 113 mph gust was the last report out of San Juan. 

    A sustained wind of 64 mph (104 km/h) with a gust to 113 mph
(182 km/h) was recently reported at San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    1 minute ago, wxmx said:

    I see that, that's why I said that a TC approaching from the SE would be bad. But the absolute worse would be from the same TC coming from the NE...untouched RFQ with NW winds, longer time for piling surge as well.

    This is the realistic worst track since its very unlikely that that a major would hit there from the NE.

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    Got to hand it to both the GFS and ECMWF upper modeling. For four days straight, 300 to 200 mb maps all showed spectacular upper support evolving over the Lesser Antilles. It had me concerned as early as Wednesday. I just wasn't sure if the cyclone would develop and be positioned where it is now. All that is history.

     

    Unprecedented hurricane activity for under a month and an entire hurricane season for that region around the Hebert Box.

     

    track.gif.1e50c6a867ca58dc4ac2c64999cb8c1d.gif

     

     

     

    • Like 2

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    17 hours ago, csnavywx said:

    Yeah, pretty remarkable warming in that region.

     

    Also see:

     

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28386025

     

     

    I'm trying to dig up some of the figures from that, but if I recall (from reading it earlier in the year) the shoaling magnitudes were pretty remarkable. On average, the water layer had shoaled halfway to the surface on the order of a decade or so and is steadily progressing eastward. It was part of the reason (along with the warm weather) why it took so long for that ice to freeze up last fall/winter.

    Still looks like the paper is behind a paywall. But phys.org posted some of the key findings.

     

    https://phys.org/news/2017-04-eastern-arctic-ocean-atlantification.html

    (Phys.org)—An international team of researchers has found that the eastern part of the Arctic Ocean is undergoing what they describe as "Atlantification"—in which the ocean is becoming more like the Atlantic Ocean. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes how they tracked ocean temperatures over a 15-year period and the changes they found.


    The Arctic Ocean has traditionally been different from the Atlantic or Pacific in a fundamental way—the water gets warmer as you go deeper (due to inflows from the Atlantic) rather than the other way around, as happens with the other two. But now, the researchers with this new effort have found that may be changing. They have been using tethered moorings to record ocean temperatures at different depths for approximately 15 years and have found that changes have taken place—sea ice is melting from below, not just from above due to warmer air temperatures.

    In studying the data from the moorings, the researchers found that warm water from the Atlantic, which has traditionally been separated from melting ice because of the halocline layer—a barrier that exists between deep salty water and fresher water closer to the surface—has been penetrating the barrier, allowing ice to melt from below. It has also led to the water becoming less stratified, like the Atlantic. They describe the changes as a "massive shift" in the ocean that has occurred over an extremely short time frame. These new findings may explain why the extent of ice coverage has been shrinking so dramatically—at a rate of 13 percent per decade.

    The result, the researchers report, is a feedback loop—as more ice melts due to warmer air, more vertical mixing occurs, allowing warmer water to move upwards, which causes melting from below. They also acknowledge that it is not yet clear what impact the change might have, but suggest it is likely to be substantial—from the biogeochemical to geophysical levels, basic components of the ocean will likely be altered, causing changes such as phytoplankton blooms in places where they have never been seen before. They also note that there is another factor to consider—the massive amounts of fresh water pouring into the ocean from rivers in Siberia as permafrost thaws.



     

    Hurricane Maria

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    11 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

    As a total side note when Gmail started I took out the name herbertsbox.  So my email address is [email protected]   After signing up I realized it should be  herbertbox not  herbertsbox.  People always ask me what herbertsbox means.  No one knows but a true tropcial weenie like me...  Okay, back to Maria....

    Just a remarkable amount of intensity and activity in such a short time there. Almost like we are seeing some type of rebound effect after years of of dry air and suppression in that region. So we swing from one extreme to the other.

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