bluewave

50 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Absolutely pouring here

Nice collision between an outflow boundary and the sea breeze front.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=OKX-N0Q-1-48

29th day at JFK with a maximum dew point of 75 or higher. The last 3 years redefined what it means to be humid here.

Record high minimum this morning at LGA of 79 degrees. Today is the 26th consecutive day at or above 70 for LGA. This is the 4th longest streak on record.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KLGA

#1....34 days....2006

#2....32 days....1980

#3....28 days....2010

#4....26 days....2018

Wildfire smoke from the West has made it here. So the sky has a hazy appearance instead of the recent Bermuda Blue pattern.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_NE/loop60.html

56 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Where would you put a sensor in NYC that wouldn't be disproportionately affected by the heat from cars/grates/etc? The middle of the Brooklyn Bridge?

The old location in Central Park before the 1996 move was fine. It was out in the open near the castle. The current temperature sensor is in the shade blocked by trees and other vegetation. There are rules for ASOS/ COOP/Mesonet  sites that the sensors can't be blocked. In rural or park settings the ideal location is in a clearing like the sensors at BNL. The video below describes the proper siting that NY Mesonet uses. Notice the sensors are in a clearing and not underneath trees.

The NYC ASOS photos below show how poorly the site is sitted. Tree growth over the sensor has had another 5 years to grow since 2013.

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

Rare combination of top 10 warmest temperatures and rainfall for August 1-14 across the area. 

Station...T rank....P rank

EWR......6th...10th

NYC......12th...6th

LGA.......3rd....6th

JFK.......9th....5th

ISP.......3rd.....6th

HPN.....4th.......5th

35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend. 

It's our friend when the teleconnections and temperatures support snow. But record warmth runs the table  when the teleconnections favor a strong WAR like Dec 15 and Feb 18. That's how we have been getting these recent winters with extremes of warmth and snow.

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Blue - this is continuous right?  Whats the total (top 5) number of 70+ lows?  Ill have to find uncs for the park and dig into EWR.

Yes, 23 consecutive days and counting for LGA. Monday was the 46th day this year at LGA with a 70 or warmer minimum. That is the 5th highest number of days by August 13th.

Most LGA days with a 70 degree or warmer minimum through August 13th:

#1...54 days....2010

#2...52 days....2012

#3...51 days....2006

#4...47 days....2013...2005

#5...46 days...2018

The total number of 90 degree or warmer days ranks a little higher by August 13th. 26 days through August 13th ranks in 4th place.

#1...38 days....2010

#2...28 days....2002

#3..27 days.....1949

#4..26 days.....2018...2012..1999...1955

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Actual 60s this morning

LGA is keeping the above 70 degree streak going. Monday was the 23rd consecutive day which is the 5th highest number of days on record. 

#1...34 days .....2006

#2...32 days......1980

#3...28 days......2010

#4...24 days......1999...1995

#5...23 days.....2018...1988

The WAR continues to beat long range forecast expectations. We keep adding 90 degree or warmer days when the long range forecast looked cooler. The normal Newark split for 8-15 is 84/68. So we will boost the monthly warm departure for the rest of this week.

Old day 10 EPS forecast

Current short range forecast

The highest 3 day total that I could find in the OKX zones was 6.60 at the NWS in Upton.

During a record breaking summer for 75 degree or higher dew points, we are even getting them with a NE wind.

Southold         N/A     75  75 100 NE2         N/A

Rare combination of warm and wet this August since 2000. All the other Augusts in NYC with over 5.00 or rain were cooler than this month so far. This pattern continues in the forecast  with more heavy rain and 90 degree days around the area this week.

NYC August rainfall over 5.00 and monthly temperature departure

2018....5.15.....+4.0 so far

2011..18.95.....+0.2

2008....5.58......-1.3

2007....7.18......-1.1

2006...6.08.......+0.7

2003...5.85......+1.6

Another very impressive torrential  downpour in a short amount of time just inland from the South Shore of Nassau today.

0120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTH BELLMORE          40.69N  73.53W
08/12/2018                   NASSAU             NY   SOCIAL MEDIA

            2.05 INCHES IN 40 MINUTES CAUSING MAJOR FLOODING ON
            MANY STREETS. FIRE RESCUE RESPONDING TO MULTIPLE RESCUES
            FROM VEHICLES.

Lowest precipitation related visibility at JFK since the winter and spring blizzards.

Kennedy Intl   HVY RAIN  72  72 100 VRB5      30.05R VSB<1/4

SPECI KJFK 121700Z VRB04KT 0SM R04R/1000V2800FT VCTS +RA BR BKN014 OVC019 22/22 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 LTG DSNT E P0050 T02220222

Pretty impressive sea breeze front eruption in the flash flood warned areas just inland from the South Shore.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_PA/loop60.html

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ179&warncounty=NYC059&firewxzone=NYZ179&local_place1=East Meadow NY&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning&lat=40.7199&lon=-73.5593#.W3BmvChM4lI

Top 10 summer warmth continues in the forecast for places north and east of Manhattan.

Warmest June 1 to August 11 on record for Northeast stations:

LGA.......77.5....7th warmest

ISP.......73.1.....8th warmest

BDR......73.7.....8th warmest

ALB.......72.9....4th warmest

BOS.....73.3.....5th warmest

BTV.....71.9.....4th warmest

CAR.....66.0.....3rd warmest

Today is day 22nd day in a row  that LGA stayed at or above 70 degrees. This is the  6th longest streak on record with more days to come.

Most consecutive days at or above 70 degrees for LGA

#1...34 days...2006

#2...30 days...1980

#3...28 days...2010

#4...24 days...1999...1995

#5..23 days....1988

#6..22 days....2018...2016...2012

1.33 around here so far with 1.00 of that coming in a 15 minute period. Very impressive stretch of these torrential downpours across the area going back to mid-July

The crystal clear Bermuda blue sky pattern has been replaced by smoke giving a hazy appearance today.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GOES_US/loop60.html

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/10/us/smoke-california-wildfire-reaches-nyc-wxc-trnd/index.html

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Very large temp swings this morning from the north to the city. Of course, 9am straightens it all out.

Nonetheless, it is alarming how warm the city and immediate areas have been staying at night. I know the reasons, but it is still alarming.

It's interesting that the rate of increase for summer minimum temperatures is similar for urban and rural areas since 1981. The big all-time warm minimum record this summer was Burlington, Vermont at 80 degrees. But the UHI combined with the long term warming trend will make places like LGA have the warmest actual minimum temperatures. I just posted earlier how LGA is at 20 consecutive days above 70 degrees yet again.

Summer minimum warming per decade since 1981:

BTV...+0.7F/Decade

ALB....+1.0

LGA....+0.8

ACY....+0.8

PHL...+1.0

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

8/11

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

maybe both 8/11 and 8/12

August has had the greatest number of these extreme rainfall events during the 2010's at 7 so far.

8-17-18....4.73...North Merrick

8-18-17....3.80...East Shoreham

8-20-16....3.85...Calverton

8-1-16.....5.34...New Windsor

8-13-14...13.51...Islip

8-15-11...10.20...Lido Beach

8-28-11...8.92....EWR

28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wet weekend on tap:

The
mesoscale predictability of where the heaviest convective rainfall
axis will be is still low at this time, but potential exists
somewhere across Central CT/Central LI westward into Lower HUD/NE
NJ/NYC metro. In this region, threat for locally torrential rain and
localized swaths of flash flooding exist late tonight into Saturday
afternoon, with shortwave lift encountering increasingly deep
moisture of 1-2 +std PWATs, apparent instability gradient, and a
focus for development/SW-NE training along a stalling frontal
boundary.

Pretty impressive flash flooding soundings. High PWAT's, enough instability, and slow training storms.

Precipitable water:        2.22 inches

Lifted Index:             -2.00 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb:     -1.56 C
Lifted Index @700 mb:     -1.81 C
Showalter Index:          -0.42 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable

Storm direction:                 242.2 at    9.9 knts

Today is the 20th day in a row that LGA remained at or above 70 degrees. It is the 7th longest streak on record. 

Longest 70 degree and above streaks for LGA

#1...34 days...2006

#2...32 days...1980

#3...28 days...2010

#4...24 days...1999...1995

#5...23 days...1988

#6...22 days...2016...2012

#7...20 days...2018...2015...2005...1994