bluewave
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Posts posted by bluewave
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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
is this in concert with the extremely warm Gulf causing all this severe weather?
how are these cold airmasses able to get this far south so late in the season?
I'm rooting for a solar flare to bake us now lol since longer days seem to be useless for warmth.
Yeah, the record Gulf SST’s helped fuel all the severe weather this month. The strong -EPO blocking near Alaska and -NAO allowed a piece of the TPV to drop into New England today. Notice how that block near Alaska pushed further east from the March position. Just a slight shift in concert with the -NAO flattened out the SE Ridge and delivered the cold.
March
April
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Record low 850mb temperatures this morning.
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46 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Man, if this pattern would have been 30 days earlier we would have had snow by the feet. Incredible. So much for that weekend warm up lol
The EPO reversal since the winter has been very impressive. The vortex cooled the NP SST’s over the winter. Now the warm blob south of Alaska is making another appearance with the strong ridge. There is also a sharp Atlantic SST gradient with cold to the north and warm south.
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NYC is on track for only the 8th time not reaching 70 degrees in April. Pretty impressive that most of the other years were in the 1870’s and 1880’s. Just goes to show how strong this -EPO/-NAO pattern has been.
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.RankYearHighest Max TemperatureMissing Count1874 64 0 1873 64 0 1940 67 0 1875 67 0 2020 68 9 1883 68 0 1884 69 0 1876 69 0 
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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:
Not again... Wasn't two wet years in a row enough?
The caveat being that much of the warmth was due to high minimums not high maximums.
The maximum July temperature departure at Newark was +3.5 vs +3.0 for the minimum. JFK came close to their all-time record heat index late in July with the record heat and humidity. There were numerous record highs on July 20th and 21st.
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10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
What is your location? Don't remember it being like that out here.
The whole region finished +1 to +2 with numerous top 10 warmest Julys.
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42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
If I recall last Summer was on the cool side. Wouldn't mind a hot and relatively dry Summer if we're ever allowed to leave our houses again. Would make for some great beach/shore vacation weather.
It was a +1 to +2 summer across the area with a top 10 warmest July. The only recent cooler summers at 0 to -1 were 2017 and 2014. The record high dew points last several summers made it feel as warm as the warmest summers since 2010.
Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.RankYearMean Avg TemperatureMissing Count1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2002 80.0 0 -
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This was the first time that I saw it pour pea sized hail along the South Shore. It was enough to briefly whiten the ground.
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LGA gusting to 52 mph.
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Severe gust in Philly.
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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
Radar echo appearance doesn’t always tell the whole story. Had plenty of lightning with 30-40dbz echoes earlier. Not only is the line lie topped but it’s still really far away from the OKX site and KDIX is down.
I guess that they are are relying on TPHL.
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Be interesting to see if that line is strong enough to verify the warning.
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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:
Still no warnings in eastern Pa for the squall line. Even with the lapse rates it will get contaminated by cloudy sky’s. The showers ahead of the line will be more impressive then anything after.
This first batch produced hail just below severe limits in Monmouth County, NJ.
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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:
The 15z run of the HRRR shows the line blowing up as it comes down off the mountains.
This first line developed very quickly. But you can see both HRRR versions with a second line sweeping through right behind it. Don’t need much sun or clearing to get storms going with such steep midlevel lapse rates.
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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:
It'll probably just be some heavy showers. Activity out west doesn't look like much
The storms don’t really develop until they reach our area where the steeper midlevel lapse rates are located. JFK already gusting over 40 mph ahead of the storms. You can see some storms ahead of the main energy firing over NNJ with this steep midlevel lapse rate plume.
Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 52 48 86 S31G41
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The squall line is beginning to develop over SE PA.
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11 minutes ago, uncle W said:
no year had a March that was warmer than April...1946 came the closest when March averaged 49.8 and April 50.4...
Also our first year since 1998 when the March maximum temperature was higher than April.
Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.YearMarAprSeason2020 77 68 77 2019 75 80 80 2018 62 82 82 2017 70 87 87 2016 79 82 82 2015 62 80 80 2014 66 77 77 2013 59 82 82 2012 78 88 88 2011 77 83 83 2010 74 92 92 2009 70 92 92 2008 63 84 84 2007 78 86 86 2006 74 83 83 2005 63 87 87 2004 70 85 85 2003 69 88 88 2002 72 96 96 2001 57 87 87 2000 71 75 75 1999 74 80 80 1998 86 73 86 -
First time since 2000 that we are getting a cool April after such a warm March.
Top 5 warmest Marches in NYC since 2000
Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.YearMarAprSeason2012 50.9 54.8 52.8 2016 48.9 53.3 51.1 2010 48.2 57.9 53.0 2020 48.0 50.9 49.1 2000 47.2 51.0 49.1 -
48 minutes ago, uncle W said:
the blocking from the ao/nao isn't forecast to be that strong or lengthy...still we will be looking at the coldest temp for April 2020 this week...
The +PNA takes over once the NAO and EPO flip positive. So we still get a lingering trough over the Northeast. It will probably stay in place as long as the MJO remains around phase 3.
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If the NAM is correct, then we may be under a severe thunderstorm watch on Tuesday. Very impressive squall line potential with steep midlevel lapse rates and some surface based instability. Could also see an embedded meso spin up in the line with high helicity values.
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68 degrees will be the high temperature in NYC for the first 20 days of April. This is -15 below the average maximum of 83 degrees since 2010.
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.Ending DateHighest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 20Missing Count2020-04-20 68 1 2019-04-20 80 0 2018-04-20 82 0 2017-04-20 87 0 2016-04-20 82 0 2015-04-20 80 0 2014-04-20 77 0 2013-04-20 82 0 2012-04-20 88 0 2011-04-20 81 0 2010-04-20 92 0 -
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April 2020
in New York City Metro
Posted
Had a light mix of sleet and snow here in SW Suffolk this morning.