bluewave

The last measurable snowfall of 2.1 inches in NYC was on January 18th. So NYC is currently a day ahead of 2002 for the earliest last measurable snowfall. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2002 01-19 (2002) 3.0 12-05 (2002) 6.0 319 1878 02-01 (1878) 2.0 11-07 (1878) 0.1 278 1925 02-12 (1925) 1.3 10-30 (1925) 0.8 259 2012 02-12 (2012) 0.2 11-07 (2012) 4.3 268 1903 02-15 (1903) 0.3 12-02 (1903) 0.8 289 1986 02-15 (1986) 0.1 12-09 (1986) 0.6 296 1979 02-19 (1979) 12.7 12-19 (1979) 3.5 302

Yeah, that record WPAC warm pool keeps the warm MJO phases going.

This record +AO pattern was more like something we saw around 1990. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Previous studies, led by University of Washington scientist Ignatius Rigor (e.g., Rigor et al., 2002), suggest that a positive winter phase of the Arctic Oscillation favors low sea ice extent the subsequent September. Wind patterns “flush” old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait and promote the production of thin ice along the Eurasian coast that is especially prone to melting out in summer. However, in recent years, this relationship has not been as clear (Stroeve et al., 2011). The potential effects this winter’s positive AO on the summer evolution of ice extent and the September 2020 minimum bears watching.

While you wouldn’t know it by looking at the RMM charts, the roundy plots and even the GFS have very strong forcing developing in the MJO 6 region. The model pattern coming up matches the March phase 6 composite very well. So it’s no surprise the models are going warm for us.

What’s interesting now is how extreme the Euro and EPS are going with the NPAC ridge near the Aleutians. The Euro has a +450 meter 500 height anomaly into early next week when we get our next warm up. Each amplification of that ridge drives the -PNA and strong SE Ridge pattern. Longer range, the Euro is snowing more of the same with the potential for a record +500 meter anomaly. So multiple warm ups in the pipeline for us.

While March 2012 was the warmest on record for Newark, the monthly high temperature wasn’t that impressive. Newark only made it to 79 degrees. Even February 2018 had a warmer monthly maximum temperature of 80 degrees. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2010 48.2 0 7 2000 47.8 0 8 1977 46.7 0 9 1979 46.2 0 10 1995 45.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 1938 82 0 6 2011 80 0 - 2007 80 0 - 1962 80 0 - 1946 80 0 7 2012 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1963 79 0

Maybe they should halt the online availability of the longer range GFS and GEFS forecasts until they figure out a cold bias fix. We could probably do very well with the Euro, UKMET, NAM, and HRRR. The GFS MOS products within 120 hrs have haven’t been too bad.

The surfers will love it. This is the first hurricane force low SE of the BM in a while. Our confidence that the winds will increase to hurricane force over the northern outer NT2 zones remains above average, and we also have high confidence with widespread gale and storm warnings.

It will be interesting to see if the warm spots can make it to 80 before the end of March. The only two years since 2010 that Newark reached 80 or warmer were 2011 and 2016. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2019 77 0 2018 62 0 2017 73 0 2016 82 0 2015 64 0 2014 67 0 2013 61 0 2012 79 0 2011 80 0 2010 75 0

The Euro continues this warm pattern until further notice.

Next Monday looks to be the warmest day of met spring so far. Euro and GFS MOS both have highs in the mid 60’s. So a guidance beat could push the warm spots near 70 degrees. But so far it has been the record warm minimum temperatures that have stood out.

10-7-18 may have been the best fantasy FV3 out of season snow so far. That would have been quite a feat with 80 degree temperatures. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2018-10-06 68 63 2018-10-07 79 67 2018-10-08 74 64 2018-10-09 77 66 2018-10-10 80 71

LGA did it in 2001-2002. 2001-2002 44.6 40.4 40.8 41.9

The GEFS cold bias has actually been worse than the GFS OP this winter. https://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

You wonder how things would have gone had they chosen MPAS instead.

The GFS finished last behind the number 1 Euro and EPS due to its extreme cold bias. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

If the rate of warming since 1980 continues, then we are on track for +1.5 C of warming around 2035.

Looks like we narrowly edged out 1990 for most positive February AO on record. Hopefully, a lingering +AO and related SST warmth off the East Coast results in fewer backdoor cold fronts than average for spring. The one caveat would be an AO reversal before the spring ends leading to more backdoors like last spring. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/monthly.ao.index.b50.current.ascii.table 2020 2.419 3.417 1990 1.001 3.402

Our first possible thunderstorms of spring are on track for tonight.

This is the first two years in a row since the 1990’s without at least a cat 1 Nesis snowstorm. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis

If NYC can hold the low of 50 degrees so far, then it will be a new record warm minimum temperature for March 3rd. The average low is still just 32 degrees. It will probably come down to the timing of the convection and frontal passage tonight. So March is getting off to a more springlike start for a change. 3/3 48 in 1991 47 in 2004 47 in 1878 https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KNYC&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Same old story of the fast northern stream suppressing the southern stream. Notice how the jet hitting the PAC NW knocks down the ridge out west too quickly. With a raging +AO, we would have needed substantial help from the Pacific.

Even a temperature departure closer to 2016 or 2010 would be impressive. March...EWR...NYC...LGA 2019.....-1.2...-0.8...-1.0 2018.....-1.7...-2.4...-1.4 2017.....-2.3...-3.3...-1.2 2016...+7.0...+6.4...+6.8 2015....-4.4...-4.4....-4.3 2014....-4.3...-4.8....-5.1 2013....-1.8...-2.4....-1.7 2012...+9.2..+8.4...+8.6 2011...+1.5...-0.2....-0.3 2010...+6.1..+5.7....+5.8