bluewave

You know it’s warm when the NYC low of 46 is 6 degrees warmer than the normal high of 40.

bluewave, that is an interesting concern. I have read, from a couple mets, that the desire for colder outcomes in the East eventually rested in part to a weakening of the record +IOD. I did not come across any mentions of weaker IOD influence leading to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases. Unless, I misunderstood what Webb posted, I thought that when the IOD weakened it would enable more traditional and assertive West Pac forcing to arise, and even the possibility of increased -NAO phases. I would appreciate why you feel the weakening + IOD might be a concern. Honestly, I was happy to see the + IOD weaken, now you have me concerned. The +IOD was associated with subsidence near the Maritime Continent during the first half of December. As the +IOD weakened, forcing returned there the last 10 days. It coincided with all the record warmth across the US this week. Now the Euro has forcing returning to phases 4-5 in early January. But there is a lag with the MJO. So the first few days of of January will have a lingering mild phase 5-6 influence. Then a colder pattern following the phase 7 passage. Finally, that cool down may be followed by a phase 4-5 warm up. The pertinent forcing changes are all within the more reliable day 1-10 period.

Yeah, it was a steep +IOD decline over the last few weeks. This coincided with our late December warm up and mild MJO 4-6 forcing. Looks like the first few days of January have a lingering mild 6 pattern .By Jan 5h, models are producing more of a phase 7 look. This could mean a return to normal or below normal temperatures. Beyond the 5th, models are hinting at forcing returning to the Maritime Continent 4 -5 phases. Obviously, these day 11-15 forecasts have been very low skill. But my concern is that the weaker IOD influence may eventually lead to more amplified forcing in those unfavorable phases.

Snowfall totals from NYC out along the South Shore of Long Island were on the low side this month. The Pacific Jet has still been very fast with the record low pressure in California and rainfall in Seattle. The mean Pacific ridge position has been stuck north of Hawaii since last winter. Maybe we need a stronger El Niño development down the line to flip the Pacific out of this stagnant pattern. But it seems like all the warm PAC SSTs west of the DL are mismatched with the El Niño development. Those same warm WPAC SSTs amp up the MJO in the unfavorable phases.

The main problem since last winter has been the unfavorable Pacific with plenty of cutter and hugger storm tracks. The temperature departures haven’t been the big issue. A cold first 3 weeks of December was only able to produce 2.5 inches of snow in NYC. Areas Inland from the coastal plain can did much better. Even last January that went -0.1 in NYC was only able to produce 1.1 inches of snow. It’s no coincidence that the best snowfall rates this December and last January in NYC were snow squalls.

This week was another great example of the week 2 forecasts not being able to see the SE ridge. But you knew this would happen with such an unfavorable Pacific. Forecast Verification

Day 11-15 models have been underestimating the influence of the SE ridge and WAR the last few years. Like we saw this week, the ridge verified much stronger than the old long range forecasts. This has created the week 2 favorable looking pattern that keeps getting pushed back.

Chicago went from record snow on Halloween to record warmth around Christmas.

Pretty big cold departure shrink in the last 4 days. ............25th...21st EWR....-1.0....-2.1 NYC....-1.2.....-2.7 LGA....-1.2.....-2.5 JFK.....-1.4.....-2.5 ISP......-0.5....-1.4 BDR....-0.9....-2.0

We still haven’t solved the scaling up problem. That why I agree we need much more research. Even in countries like Germany where they take the subject seriously, their energy transition has stalled out. This is a much more challenging issue than any of the topics that you mentioned. Those are simple compared to climate change. That’s why it looks like our default position will be business as usual and doing the best we can to adapt. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610457/at-this-rate-its-going-to-take-nearly-400-years-to-transform-the-energy-system/ https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition

I don’t see why anyone needs to bring up what x or y politician says when discussing climate change. You realize that science and public policy are two separate fields. The world isn’t in a rush to develop technology needed for a transition to a post carbon society. So understanding how our weather and climate are changing is crucial to our successful adaptation. People can make their own choices like building smarter and becoming educated on how to negotiate more extreme weather. I honestly don’t care what people’s personal political views are. Just try to refrain from disparaging the science.

Same to all the great members that we have on the forum.

The forecast strength of the TPV is near record levels for this time of year. That’s why the models have such a strong +AO rise coming up.

Looks like 2019 will go out with the prevailing stuck weather pattern. Storm track corrects warmer from the initial day 10 forecast. So it’s fitting that this year will end on the mild and wet side. New 120 hr Old 240 hr

Same to you and your family. We can have a back and forth without any hard feelings.

All that information has been posted in the climate change forum.

You don’t get to pick and choose which scientific fields you think are hoax.

Yes you did. Go back and see how life was before the scientific revolution.

The temperature rise is extremely rapid for such a short period of time. Calling science a hoax is never a good idea. That kind of world outlook is straight out of the dark ages.

Temperatures in rural NJ are rising at the same rate as NYC. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/ New Jersey may seem an unlikely place to measure climate change, but it is one of the fastest-warming states in the nation. Its average temperature has climbed by close to 2 degrees Celsius since 1895 — double the average for the Lower 48 states.

This looks more like LA with the smog trapped under the inversion.

November and March have been our only reliable cold departure months in a sea of annual warmth. Notice how they have had a similar departure relationship. Maybe some aspect of the background forcing state is behind this unusual pairing? The only year this decade the relationship didn’t work was 16-17. The years that they were both warm like 09-10, 11-12, and 15-16 were among the warmest on record. NYC Season...Nov....Mar 19-20.....-3.8 18-19.....-3.3.....-0.9 17-18.....-1.1.....-2.4 16-17.....+2.1....-3.3 15-16.....+5.1....+6.4 14-15.....-2.4.....-4.4 13-14.....-2.4......-4.8 12-13.....-3.8......-2.4  11-12....+4.2.....+8.4 10-11.....+0.2.....-0.2  09-10....+3.4.....+5.7

But the rural, suburban, and urban temperature departures are similar.

We know that warming can be an uneven process. But this late month warmth is an interesting feature. You would think that the warmest temperatures for NYC would occur earlier in the month. The average NYC high on 12-1 is 48 and 39 on 12-31. NYC had 5 years from 2011 to 2018 with the monthly highest temperature occurring between the 21st and 31st. It used to be uncommon for NYC to have its warmest December temperature beyond the middle of the month. NYC highest December temperature dates after the 20th 12-21-18....61 12-27-16....60 12-24-15....72 12-22-13.....71 12-21-11.....62 tie with earlier dates

What does consider the source mean? This holiday week warming is a widespread story. It’s not just localized to a small area.