bluewave

This will be one of the coolest Memorial Day weekends (Sat-Mon) since 2010 in NYC. It’s only the 3rd year with no 85+ high temperatures in Central Park. Memorial Day weekend(Sat-Mon) maximum high in NYC since 2010 2019...86 2018...89 2017...71 2016...92 2015...85 2014...86 2013...73 2012...89 2011...86 2010...86

These SST patterns can shift very quickly since they just respond to the surface and upper air patterns. So it usually comes down to what they do as we approach the peak of the hurricane season later on. But in the near term, the cooler SST’s and MJO will promote more of a trough pattern over the Northeast as we start a June. So the first 90 of the season will probably be late compared to recent years.

This year the cold pool extends further south down the coast than last year. It was mostly just east of New England at this time last year. Notice how much cooler the SST’s are off the entire East Coast now. This is a function of the much cooler April and May than last year. This year Last year Difference

It’s been a while since we had a cold pool off the coast in late May like this.

Looks like some cool 40s tonight on the strong NE flow.

Tail end of the slow moving cutoff that lead to those two dam failures in Michigan.

First inch+ heavy rain event here in SW Suffolk since mid-April.

Radar estimates of 2.50 inches of rain to the south of Jones Beach.

Some recent rainfall reports from NJ Somerset County... Somerville 1.73 in 0901 AM 05/23 CWOP Middlesex 1.63 in 0845 AM 05/23 IFLOWS Blackwells Mills 0.96 in 0905 AM 05/23 CWOP ...Sussex County... 0.7 NE Flatbrookville 1.22 in 0900 AM 05/23 HADS

So far a quick 1-2 inches of rain under the heaviest bands of training thunderstorms.

Radar estimates of 1.00 inch of rain in the last hour with the training thunderstorms near SMQ.

The new HRRR v4 has been doing pretty well this spring. It has areas that get 1-2” under the best banding. But areas outside the main bands will get less.

Euro has first 1-2” rain event since mid-April tonight into Saturday.

There had been a June cool pocket over the Northeast since the super El Niño in 2015-2016.

The last below normal AMJ was in 2003. 2020 39.1 40.1 48.0 50.4 57.2 M 2003 27.5 30.1 43.1 49.8 58.7 68.4

The MJO is only spending a brief period in the warm phases next week. So it quickly returns to the cooler 8-1 phases to start June. This is pretty much opposite of what happened from mid-December through March.

Cool onshore flow continuing into early next week. Then we transition to a warmer 80+ pattern away from the shore. The warm up is followed by the next cool down to start June.

15th negative departure day this month in NYC. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 68 MM 93 1996 72 -4 71 MINIMUM 46 MM 40 1907 55 -9 56 AVERAGE 57 64 -7 64

If you have Verizon FIOS, then just go to on demand search and type In American Experience. It will be the most recent episode. You Tube also has it.

Mr. Tornado was one of the best Meteorology documentaries of the last few years. It’s available on demand if you missed it. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/mr-tornado/

50s along the South Shore. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Jones Beach N/A 52 N/A N/A S8 N/A Wantagh N/A 59 46 63 S8 N/A

Record lows this morning at ISP and JFK. It was the 2nd latest last freeze on record at FOK. Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2002 05-22 (2002) 32 10-15 (2002) 31 145 2016 05-20 (2016) 32 10-11 (2016) 31 143 2008 05-20 (2008) 31 10-07 (2008) 31 139 2003 05-19 (2003) 32 10-03 (2003) 29 136 2000 05-16 (2000) 30 10-09 (2000) 32 145 2013 05-15 (2013) 32 10-19 (2013) 32 156

This cool pattern since early April really dropped the SST departures to our east. Unusual to see them colder than normal for a change.

It probably is a piece of the puzzle some years. But we were wet during the summer in 2018 with that record WAR. 2017 was a little cooler than average with higher dew points. But a dry summer in the rainfall department. A good chunk of the summer rainfall in 2014 was with that 1000 year deluge over just a few hours. And we can’t forget the record breaking rainfall during the summer of 2011.

Even with the record high dew points since 2016, the only wetter summer than average at Islip was 2018. The lower dew point summers from 2010 to 2014 were wetter. Go figure... JJA average rainfall 11.68” Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 2019 10.64 0 2018 12.94 0 2017 9.41 0 2016 5.25 0 2015 7.27 0 2014 18.82 0 2013 13.21 0 2012 18.54 0 2011 17.02 0 2010 7.67 0