bluewave

The technology involved is really impressive. https://www.ecomagazine.com/news/oceans/gliders-drifters-and-drones-solving-key-climate-question Types of autonomous instruments Here are some of the unmanned sensors that will be deployed by NOAA’s ATOMIC (the Atlantic Tradewind Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign) and the European EUREC4A (Elucidating the Role of Clouds-Circulation Coupling in Climate ) campaigns. Wave gliders: These are wave-propelled, solar-powered autonomous surfboards capable of sustained deployment over multiple seasons that convert the energy of waves into thrust. Each wave glider is made up of a 7-foot long surfboard-like float tied to a submerged glider that controls speed and direction along a programmed or remotely-piloted path. Wave gliders measure wave properties, currents, ocean temperature and salinity, exchanges between the air and water, along with surface weather. Data are transmitted to shore via satellite. Seagliders: Five of these small, streamlined, free-swimming vehicles will repeatedly dive and climb to make measurements of the upper ocean traditionally collected by research vessels or moored instruments, but for months at a time and at a fraction of the cost. They can survey a transect, hover at a fixed location, or receive remote directions to follow a set course. Saildrones: Five of these autonomous, solar-powered sailboats will operate in the larger ocean area around Barbados in January and February. It’s a unique instrument package that provides simultaneous measurements of the lower atmosphere and upper ocean: waves, ocean temperatures, salinity and currents, along with surface weather and ocean chemistry. Two NOAA-funded saildrones will be on extended operation from February through July, while the original saildrone fleet will return to Barbados for recovery. SWIFT buoys: Six SWIFT buoys - SWIFT stands for Surface Wave Instrument Floats with Tracking - will drift along the sea surface measuring ocean turbulence, wave properties, salinity, water, surface meteorology, and capture images of clouds. Argo floats: These battery-powered autonomous floats spend most of their time drifting at a depth of about 1.2 miles measuring temperature and salinity, then rise to the surface on a set schedule to transmit data in real-time via satellite. Argo floats cycle through these dives, or “profiles” for four to five years on battery power. Since its inception in 1999, the Argo Program has grown to include almost 4,000 floats and participation from 26 countries across the globe. Ocean Drifters: Ten enhanced drifting buoys will also aid in collection of ocean data. “Drifters” are composed of a surface float, which includes a transmitter to relay data via satellite, and a thermometer that reads temperature a few centimeters below the air-sea interface. The floats were also equipped with salinity sensors for this experiment. The surface float is tethered to a holey sock drogue (a.k.a. “sea anchor”), centered at 15 m depth. The drifter follows the ocean surface current flow integrated over the drogue depth. In the skies: Unmanned aerial vehicles or UAVs can fly slower and lower than larger piloted aircraft, making UAVs ideal for probing the marine boundary layer that connects clouds with the ocean surface, from 100 to 10,000 feet of elevation. The ability of these small craft to fly grids at different elevations offers the opportunity to obtain measurements unavailable with larger, faster aircraft. The UAVs can collect needed information on turbulence and its impact on the transfer of heat, mass, and momentum across the cloud base. NOAA scientists will deploy the RAAVEN UAV, carrying the miniflux sensor package developed by NOAA, CIRES and University of Colorado scientists in Boulder, Colorado, in flights just offshore, where ships and other ocean-based platforms can't operate. The measurements will explore the interactions between the ocean surface and the overlying atmosphere, as well as the interface between that boundary layer and the clouds that are generated. These roaming autonomous platforms significantly enhance the coverage of data available across space and over time compared to that from one location. These datasets will complement the intensive data collection also taking place at the ships, aircraft, and buoys during ATOMIC. Story by NOAA

This was the warmest melt season on record. A new paper is out on the continuing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean. This year the sea ice edge made it to 85°N on the Atlantic side. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Atlantification continues As discussed in a recent paper in the Journal of Climate led by colleague Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska, the process of “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean, first noted in the Barents Sea, is continuing, with significant effects on the sea ice cover during the winter season in the Eastern Eurasian Basin. The relatively fresh surface layer of the Arctic Ocean is underlain by warm, salty water that is imported from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The cold fresh surface layer, because of its lower density, largely prevents the warm, salty Atlantic waters from mixing upwards. However, the underlying Atlantic water appears to have moved closer to the surface in recent years, reducing the density contrast with the water above it. Recent observations show this warm water “blob,” usually found at about 150 meters (492 feet) below the surface, has shifted within 80 meters (263 feet) of the surface. This has resulted in an increase in the upward winter ocean heat flow to the underside of the ice from typical values of 3 to 4 watts per square meter in 2007 to 2008 to greater than 10 watts per square meter from 2016 to 2018. Polyakov estimates that this is equivalent to a two-fold reduction in winter ice growth.

Yeah, the record amplitude may allow allow a piece of energy to cutoff near the Rockies. So some rapidly changing conditions even by Rockies standards are possible. I guess we’ll have to see how this trough evolution influences the Western Atlantic pattern regarding any tropical systems. Courtesy of wx.us and Ryan Maue on twitter.

The first half of the month was cold enough to compensate for the milder second half. But even the second half of the month only made to 56° in NYC with the historic flood cutter. January 1996 finished 30.5° and -2.1. That was like a grand finale in a fireworks show. I never expected in 1996 that we would see such a snow drought from 96-97 to 01-02. It was my biggest weather surprise since the winter of 89-90 historic reversal from the record cold December.

95-96 was the last time for NYC that every month from November to March was below normal. Came close in 02-03 but March finished above normal. 13-14 and 14-15 got interrupted by the warmth in December.

Looks like any major heat will be limited by clouds and onshore flow. But the warmer than normal minimums may take the lead with the higher dew points and winds off the still warm ocean.

Less warm is the new cool.

Extremely amplified pattern coming up. Record 500mb heights forecast along the West Coast by the weekend. Then we see how strong the ridge off the East Coast can get in 7-10 days.

Numerous stations across the US experienced their warmest summer on record.

Yeah, those warming WPAC SSTs lead to the record MJO 4-6 activity during recent winters. This served to enhance the La Niña background state over the last 4 winters. It resulted in mild to record warm winters with the SE Ridge dominating and setting a new record in February 2018. But the location of the NPAC ridge made the difference between snowy and nearly snowless winter outcomes. 2017 to 2018 featured the ridge near the Aluetians and more NATL blocking with a snowy pattern. During the 2019 to 2020 period ,the ridge was much flatter near Hawaii. So we got the two recent nearly snowless DJF periods along with a strong NATL PV. While it looks like we could experience a 5th La Niña background state winter, we’ll have to see how the NPAC ridge and NATL pattern influence the snowfall potential.

Updated for August 2020. 8....2020...EWR...10..LGA...5...BDR...3...ISP....6

Several stations finished with August top 10 warmth. All our stations except Newark recorded a top 5 warmest summer. LGA established a new warmest summer on record. BDR tied for 1st with 2016 and ISP was a close 2nd to 2010. So numerous summers and summer months in the top 10 warmest just since 2010. EWR....#10 LGA.....#5 BDR....#3 ISP......#6 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 79.2 0 2 2010 78.7 0 3 1994 78.5 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2005 77.8 0 6 1988 77.7 0 7 2020 77.6 0 - 2016 77.6 0 - 1973 77.6 0 8 1999 77.1 0 9 1995 77.0 0 10 2012 76.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.8 0 2 1966 77.3 0 3 2005 77.1 0 4 2020 76.9 0 - 1993 76.9 0 - 1983 76.9 0 6 1949 76.8 0 6 2016 76.7 0 - 1999 76.7 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.5 0 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 4 2005 78.0 0 5 2018 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2011 75.8 0 5 2020 75.7 0 6 1983 75.6 0 7 1984 75.4 0 8 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 9 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 1p 2005 75.1 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.4 4 - 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 5 2012 74.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 74.7 0 2 2020 74.6 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2018 73.5 0 - 2005 73.5 0

I wonder what the 500MB height record is for Newfoundland in September? All the models are going near 600 DM In about 10 days.

Islip finally dropped below 60° ending the record streak at 74 days. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 60 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 74 2020-08-30 2 63 1967-08-31 3 62 2015-08-28 4 61 2003-08-23 5 58 2005-09-05

It looks like we will have a trough in the Great Lakes and Midwest at least into early September. There should also be plenty of high pressure to our north and east with onshore flow here. But we will just have to wait and see how many of the AEWs coming off Africa can actually develop into named systems.

It took until last October for the IO standing wave to emerge with the record +IOD. It continued until mid-December before the record SSTs north of Australia emerged. Then it was off to the races for the record MJO 4-6 which dominated from late December on. There was some research that the IO standing wave being so strong during OND was related to the intense PV which dominated last winter. So it will be interesting so see how the Indian Ocean and Pacific interact this coming fall and winter.

Numerous stations from Northern Maine to Southeast PA are currently in 1st place for the warmest summer. This includes LGA, BDR, and ISP in our area. It’s impressive how many high ranking summers there have been across this region since 2016. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67.1 2 2 2018 66.2 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 72.4 2 2 1949 72.2 0 3 2018 72.1 0 Time Series Summary for Manchester Area, NH (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2018 73.6 2 3 2016 73.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 2 1973 74.4 0 3 2005 73.9 0 4 2016 73.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.6 2 2 2010 79.1 0 3 2016 78.8 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 75.6 6 2 2016 75.4 0 3 2010 75.0 0 4 2018 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.7 2 - 2010 74.7 0 3 1999 74.5 0 4 2016 74.4 0 5 2011 73.9 0 6 2019 73.8 0 7 2018 73.5 0 Time Series Summary for Williamsport Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 74.6 2 2 2016 74.4 0 3 1949 74.3 0 - 1901 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 78.1 2 2 1966 77.6 0 3 2016 77.3 0 4 2010 76.8 0 5 1999 76.7 0 6 2019 76.5 0

The record breaking IO standing wave is making headlines again. Now it looks like it’s producing an early September pattern resembling MJO phase 1. So this translates into the big ridge along the West Coast and trough over the MW/GL. It will limit our early September 90° potential.

It really depends on how long the ridge says locked in along the West Coast. This hasn’t been our typical September pattern during the last decade. There has usually been a trough out there with a ridge over New England.

There are no other parts of the country with the population density of the OKX forecast zones. While Chicago has the change of seasons like we do, they don’t have the added challenge of coastal storms and hurricanes/tropical storms. So the OKX forecast office in Upton has a unique combination of high population, changing elevation, marine influence, tropical cyclones, and a wide variety of active changing weather throughout the year. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183600/population-of-metropolitan-areas-in-the-us/

All I initially mentioned was the challenges of forecasting for NYC and Long Island. You were the one that brought up NJ. When I mentioned other less populated parts of the country ,NJ wasn’t what I was thinking. The NNJ most densely populated counties also present their own set of forecasting challenges. I would say that the totality of the OKX forecast zones in NY, NJ, and CT are probably the most challenging part of the country to forecast for. Most densely populated part of the country with marine zones and mountains and a wide variety of annual changing weather. So our forum is quite unique in that regard.

Still about 2.5 million fewer people than NYC and LI. But most of the population is located in the northern part of the state closest to NYC Metro.

I was talking specifically about NYC and Long Island severe weather events. The narrow 25 mile wide zone of NYC and Long Island has a population of over 11 million people. So we have a very high proportion of the members in the forum. That’s why severe weather and snowstorm forecasts varying by 25-50 miles make a big difference for us. This is often within the margin of error for model forecasts. Not a big deal when it happens in less densely populated regions across the country. But there are more people to notice these small shifts in our tiny geographic region.

These enhanced or higher level severe outlooks usually verify in some portion of the outlined area. But since NYC/LI is only 25 miles wide from north to south, a small shift can make a big difference for us. The July 26, 2012 MDT risk wound up just to our north and west. But the September 8th, 2012 Breezy Point and Canarsie tornado was within that MDT risk.