bluewave

There is no underrepresentation since it all depends on what time interval you use. Set it to 24 hrs and the April 2003 drop is the top one. Anytime you have an afternoon within 24-72 hours with a 30°+ difference it’s noteworthy.

That one was in May 2020 but the one last May was equally as extreme for some locations. https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/regional/narrative/narrative.html Northeast Overview - May 2023 Notable Weather EventsAn upper-level low pressure system that had stalled near the region in late April finally meandered away during the first few days of May but continued to bring persistent below-normal temperatures and rounds of precipitation during that time. In fact, a rare May snow event occurred in some higher-elevation locations of West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania. The greatest storm snow total reached 20.3 inches in Davis, West Virginia, ranking as West Virginia’s largest May snowstorm and the snowiest May for any West Virginia site on record. Davis saw 10.1 inches of snow on May 3, ranking as the greatest daily snowfall for May for any West Virginia site. Meanwhile, Snowshoe, West Virginia, had its snowiest May since records began in 1975 with 16.0 inches and its snowiest May day with 7.0 inches on May 3. The site’s snow depth of 15 inches on May 4 was the greatest May snow depth on record for any West Virginia site. The event was also notable even at sites that saw less snowfall, such as Donegal, Pennsylvania, which had its snowiest May since records began in 1945 with 0.7 inches of snow. In addition, on May 1, a storm system associated with the upper-level low set record-low sea level pressures for May at least eight sites including Boston, Massachusetts; Williamsport, Pennsylvania; and New York City. Low temperatures on May 18 bottomed out in the 20s and 30s in multiple parts of the Northeast, running as much as 22 degrees F colder than normal. For instance, lows of 30 degrees F in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and 33 degrees F in Providence, Rhode Island, ranked among the 10 coldest low temperatures for May at those sites. After a mild April, some crops were ahead of schedule, leaving them particularly susceptible to the unusually cold temperatures. There was widespread frost/freeze damage to grape vines, particularly in central and eastern New York where early estimated losses of 70 to 100 percent of some grape varietals were reported at some vineyards. Early estimates indicate around a third of Massachusetts’ apple crop was damaged, while preliminary estimates from New Hampshire indicate damages to the state’s apple crop could exceed $1 million. Vermont officials reported severe damage to thousands of acres of crops, while Connecticut officials also have reported significant crop losses. The full extent of damage will take more time to assess.

The TPV looks even stronger this time near Hudson Bay maxing out near -5 SD. It’s forecast to weaken as it heads to Maine. But there will still be a late season possible hard freeze for interior regions. Both events followed a late season -EPO pattern after record warmth prevailed during the winter.

Something unusual is going on with the the TPV. It’s becoming consolidated and very strong for late April. The forecast is for it to approach record low 500mb heights for late April levels near Hudson Bay next week. All the guidance splits a piece off and it heads for Maine day 6-10. If this scenario verifies, interior portions of the Northeast could face a hard freeze.

It will be interesting to see if Newark can maintain a high only in the 40s tomorrow. It would be one of the more impressive 48-72 hr afternoon temperature drops during the month of April if they can pull it off. The last 80s to 40s in the afternoon in April over a few days was back in 2018. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&v=tmpf&hours=72&month=apr&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

You can see the artificial warm season daytime cooling at Central Park when the ASOS was installed under the trees around 1995. That’s when the decrease in 90° days began to occur. So these charts show the previous 30 years vs the 30 years since the deep shade became a factor under the trees.

Probably related to the big changes in the Pacific SSTs since 2014 along with the more frequent and amplified MJO 4-7s during the winter. A recent paper was just published on this remarkable warming in the North Pacific SST patterns since the 2014 marine heatwave. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078 The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone &Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable. In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolutionsince 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

The interesting thing is that we had those 2 cold winters just before the record 9 winters of record warmth since 15-16. Almost like our last really cool summer in 2009 was followed by all the record summer warmth since 2010. The lone top 10 coldest February 2015 month got answered by a record amount of top 10 warmest winter months since then including the +13.3 December 2015 and 80° in February 2018 not to mention all the 40° winters in recent years. Then our lone top 10 coldest June into July 2009 was answered by the warmest summer on record in 2010 and a record number of top 10 warmest summer months since then.

My guess is that the backdoor prevented us from reaching 90° this week. The long range models had mid 80s for Wednesday into Friday before the backdoor appeared in more recent forecasts. So they probably would have been at least 5°+ too cool like we have seen on the original long range forecast for yesterday.

Too bad we could get such a strong -EPO pattern which is forecast to coincide with the cooler backdoor this week when we needed it during the winter. All the best -EPOs since 13-14 and 14-15 have occurred during other seasons than the winter. Those were the last winters with wall to wall -EPO patterns.

The climate models that predict sea level rise will need a significant upgrade in order to factor in this faster Antarctic ice sheet melt from warming ocean currents. https://www.earth.com/news/antarctica-ice-shelves-melting-faster-due-to-ocean-currents/ Antarctic ice shelves are melting faster due to ocean currents This new discovery necessitates a reevaluation of our current understanding of the complex interactions between the Southern Ocean currents and the Antarctica ice sheet. Prior models primarily focused on wind patterns as the driver of ice shelf melt. This new research highlights the crucial role of ocean currents and seabed topography in influencing the movement and upwelling of warm water towards the ice shelves. Consequently, climate models used to predict future sea level rise will require significant adjustments to incorporate these newly discovered dynamics. “Our findings challenge conventional wisdom,” explained Yoshihiro Nakayama from Hokkaido University. By integrating this information, scientists can develop more accurate and nuanced projections of how much global sea levels might rise due to Antarctic ice melt.

Yeah, the 90s came too early last April. I remember a bunch of places having to turn the AC on more than a month ahead of usual. It was one of those reverse summers where the April heat was more imoressive relative to the summer means. While the summer was much cooler in 2009,the April warmth last year came ahead of a summer that was closer to average with much less heat than recent years. Developing El Niño summers tend to be more reasonable with the heat. Monthly Data for April 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ HARRISON COOP 94 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 93 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 93 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 92 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 92 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 92 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 92 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91 CT DANBURY COOP 91 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90 NY WEST POINT COOP 90 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 90 CT GUILFORD COOP 90 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 90 Monthly Data for April 2009 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY PORT JERVIS COOP 94 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 94 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 94 NY BRONX COOP 94 NJ CRANFORD COOP 93 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 93 NJ HARRISON COOP 93 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 92 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 92 NY WEST POINT COOP 92 CT DANBURY COOP 92 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 92 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 91 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 91 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 91 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 91 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 90

Closer to 70°.

Today looks like a great day. The HRRR has 78° around EWR and NYC. The model was 2° too cool last week with the warm up so 80° highs are possible.

This is one of those rare times that an advertised 6-10 day warm up underperforms. The much stronger 50/50 low and low over Iowa played a role here. It caused a narrower and more elongated ridge to allow a much stronger backdoor. New run Old run

El Niño to La Niña transition summers are usually pretty hot. So we’ll probably need to keep the pattern very wet to take the edge off the warmer potential. But that would come with the price of higher dewpoints.

Another study on how aerosol reduction is leading to more warming than originally forecast by some climate models.

My guess is that this persistent trough near the Northeast is related to the +IOD creating a MJO 2 type pattern.

A recent paper was just published on this remarkable warming in the North Pacific SST patterns since the 2014 marine heatwave. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078 The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable. In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first EOF.

Data for March 1, 2024 through April 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation CARMEL 4N COOP 11.49 BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 8.79 Data for March 1, 2024 through April 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.02 FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.87 PUTNAM LAKE COOP 13.84 STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 13.53 IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.70 NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.58 NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 12.44 NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 12.31 SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 11.90 BRIDGEPORT 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.84 RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 11.44 NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 11.37 DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 11.11 NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.76 BETHEL 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.72 RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.41 DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.39 RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.34 BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.30 DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10.29 BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 10.09 BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.85 DANBURY COOP 9.29

15.00” of rain this spring in spots is really impressive by April 15th considering the regional average for the whole spring (MAM) is around 12.00”. Data for March 1, 2024 through April 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 15.90 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 15.25 NY ST. JAMES COOP 15.16 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 14.24 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 14.21 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 14.20 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 14.09 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 14.05 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.01 CT GUILFORD COOP 14.00 NJ HARRISON COOP 13.97 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 13.88 NY CENTERPORT COOP 13.87 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 13.86 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 13.85 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 13.85

Addressing the issue is going to need creative solutions which aim to make life easier for the inhabitants of our societies across the globe and which appeal to their higher aspirations. So far we have heard from the politicians and world leaders how the average person needs to sacrifice to bring about changes. This is being done by individuals with giant carbon footprints in private jets who may mean well but have no idea the financial struggles and challenges that the average person faces on a daily basis. We knew the original idea being promoted for years was a non starter right out of the gate of levying a carbon tax which would inevitably be passed on to individuals. People need relief from the high costs of life not more economic stress. Countries like Germany have seen their electric rates shoot through the roof due to the high cost of trying to upgrade the grid to renewables which is extremely expensive. Instead of keeping their nuclear plants open they have now turned to coal to meet their additional energy needs. In this country there are many that in theory who want renewable energy. But once a large installation is proposed in their area they reject it. These installations take up large swaths of land and the local residents have moved to block them. Plus the current inflationary economy makes renewables less competitive since they were designed for a lower inflation environment. This is why their stock prices has been falling recently. Along with the cancellation of projects due to the higher costs. Renewables like wind and solar also take a long time to scale up and have the issue of being intermittent. So it’s no surprise that that the fossil fuels share of the energy mix still remains constant across the globe and has not dropped. Countries in Europe have demonstrated that nuclear has scaled up more quickly than wind and solar. But there has been too much resistance to nuclear over the years. We now have next generation nuclear which is much safer. So there is no need to wait for fusion to become viable. That could still take another 15-30 years. I see government plans to transition from internal combustion engine cars to electric vehicles. But electric vehicles like Teslas are very expensive to the average consumer who is currently economically stressed due to the high rate of costs and inflation. These are niche items for the more affluent who own their own homes with chargers. We still don’t have enough charging infrastructure for the majority of people who are apartment dwellers in big cities. Plus the grid is nowhere near the level needed to sustain a large vehicle electrification project. China has taken a different approach with mass producing EVs for only 10,000 which would be affordable to the average citizen. But there are some who want to block the entry of these vehicles into our market. The contradictions coming out of China are very notable. On one hand they have become the greatest emitter of co2 due to their rapid expansion of coal plants. But they are also working on EV technology at a fast rate and look to end up dominating the world market. So there is no way the planet is going to reduce carbon emissions without China experiencing a rapid transformation first. For all our issues in this country, we still have managed to lower our emissions somewhat. We have been using more natural gas which greatly reduces mortality and disease from air pollution. China could take a cue for us here since it along with India has some of the worst air pollution in the world.

Your views are based on the way you want the world to work and not how it currently works. I also have a soft spot for that sentiment since I think we could be doing so much more collectively across the world on a whole host of issues. Society needs to have things demonstrated to them first before they are willing to make big changes in the way they do things. Scientists are missing the fact that societies are more reactive than proactive. And climate change involves being proactive in order to avoid the worst outcomes as the climate continues to rapidly warm. Big changes in society have historically happened after major catalyzing events. But on numerous occasions these events were well forecast by people who were paying attention to the signs. So I am sure climate change will be no different. We have been conditioned by experience to react to immediate threats in the here and now and not what could eventually happen in the future. Don’t be surprised it it takes the beginning of a break up in the WAIS and much faster seas level rises than we have seen for climate change to rise to the top of many nations list of priorities. My guess is that a sudden rise of sea levels in a relatively short period of time will get all the countries of the worlds attention. But we are not at that point yet. Money is just another form of abundance in life. So it’s the currency that value across the globe is measured by. It’s a form of exchange that represents our current level of advancement. I am sure there are probably much more evolved civilizations out there in the universe where money isn’t such a dominant feature like on our planet. But we haven’t reached that level just yet. So climate change is going to need to start costing societies so much that collectively we all decide that we need to change the way we order our economies and societies. It would be great if we currently had some technology that could speed up the transition away from fossil fuels. But energy transitions throughout history have been slow. I don’t think that we can rely on government bodies to protect us from an increasingly more volatile climate. My focus on adaptation is based on the individual making informed choices on how to best navigate this change in climate. I don’t expect any government body to do it for us. So my focus is raising awareness of these climate issues so the individual can make their own best informed decisions.

The evolution 2020-2023 triple dip La Niña was different from 1998-2001 in several ways. First, this most recent one didn’t follow a very strong to super El Niño event. Second, it was driven more by the stronger SST contrast from the WPAC to EPAC leading to stronger trade winds. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JD038843#:~:text=Subsurface cooling in the equatorial,SST) contrast along the equator. This study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well as predictions for the two most recent triple-dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023. Subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific was stronger and more persistent during 1998–2001. In contrast, surface easterly winds were stronger during 2020–2023 as was the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) contrast along the equator. We argue that in the absence of appreciable equatorial Pacific heat discharge, persistent and strong surface trade winds and a strengthened mean zonal SST contrast across the tropical Pacific contributed to the development of the 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niña. In terms of the subsurface layer heat budget, the growth and maintenance of unusually cold SSTs during the triple-dip La Niña in 1998–2001 were mainly the result of ocean vertical entrainment and diffusion, as well as meridional advection, associated with enhanced equatorial upwelling; while for the triple-dip La Niña in 2020–2023, zonal advection was the largest contributor. The two events were mostly well predicted by multi-model averages at 1–8 months lead times. We hypothesize that mean state change with enhanced zonal SST contrast and trade winds over the last several decades altered the physical processes associated with the growth and maintenance of the most recent La Niña, affecting its predictability. Successful prediction in real-time of the 2020–2023 event more than half a year in advance was surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor. Key Points The physical processes responsible for the evolution of the 1998–2001 and 2020–2023 triple-dip La Niñas were different Ocean heat content as a precursor was more important for the predictability of the 1998–2001 La Niña than the 2020–2023 La Niña Stronger surface easterlies and zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific contributed to the predictability of the 2020–2023 La Niña Plain Language Summary El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the strongest interannual variability on Earth and the main source of global seasonal climate predictability. Here, we examine the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific during two triple-dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023, comparing the physical processes that gave rise to them and the skill in predicting them. Our results show that the processes giving rise to these events were different and likely affected by mean state changes in the tropical Pacific. In particular, the easterly trade winds and zonal SST contrast across the basin have strengthened that played a crucial role in the growth, maintenance, and prediction of the La Niña in 2020–2023. The evolution of the La Niña in 2020–2023 was successfully predicted in real-time more than half a year in advance, which is surprising because there was little memory in oceanic heat content which is often considered a key predictor.