bluewave

The wildest stat is that Baltimore had 77.0” during just a few months and a total of 69.6” over the last 7 seasons.

This storm will pull the trough into the East once it passes. So we have probably seen our last 80° day of the season. But all the cold is locked up in Siberia. So the trough will capture mild Pacific air. While it will be cooler than we have been experiencing recently, the airmass isn’t that cold for October. So the cooler days will probably be a little below average but nothing too cold for mid-October. But much more comfortable and fall-like than the record heat of the last few weeks.

Yeah, must be the really strong subtropical winter ridge expansion in conjunction with the faster Pacific Jet leading to all these winter into early spring -NAO -AO Southeast ridge link ups. Been noticing that during other seasons like we are seeing next few days we can avoid the Southeast ridge link ups at times. The last really solid -NAO -AO block that delivered a classic KU event was 1-31-21. The Jan 22 events were mostly Pacific driven with +PNA -EPO +AO +NAO.

Nice to see the 12z CMC finally come on board with a more NW phase and closer to coast surface low. https://weather.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

There hasn’t been any correlation with the NAO from one month to the other with how wild the swings have become in recent years between highs and lows.

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

We can say one thing for sure. The cutoff is now so deep on the EPS near the East Coast, that the trough axis stays along the East Coast next few weeks. So it does look like this past week will turn out to be the warmest of this whole month. So it’s possible that instead of 80s the warmest next few weeks is 70s with multiple days in the 60s.

I was happy for you guys back in 2009-2010 even though the jackpot that winter was to my south. You were able to get that outcome due to how cold the CONUS was that winter. Needed the 27th coldest CONUS winter at 30.70° to get such heavy snows a far south as the DC to Philly metros. Since the big shift warmer in 2015-2016, this last 2024-2025 relatively colder winter was 34.05° and the 27th warmest. So a colder winter during the post 1994-2015 snowy era was much warmer than a cold winter back in that era. The fall patterns were precursors to both winters. October 2009 was the 4th coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. October 2024 was the 2nd warmest on record. So another metric of how much warmer the climate across the seasons has warmed since 2015-2016.

Yeah, a subtropical or hybrid structure.

Yeah, we used to have the old Alden Difax machine back at college in the mid 80s. Sometimes we would come into the weather lab after the weekend and all the maps would be stuck inside. Even when the machine was working correctly, the model graphics weren’t very high detail.

https://weather.gc.ca/mainmenu/modelling_menu_e.html

The 12z Canadian is only showing up on the official site and is still OTS.

Seems like the vorts will need to phase further NW in order for the low to come further north like today. If the vorts phase further south, then it will take the low OTS. This is why earlier runs were more OTS. We’ll need a few more runs like today in order to have some confidence in the wetter scenarios. I don’t think we have seen a phasing scenario work in our favor in quite some time.

Just goes to show what a little elevation and distance west of the I-95 corridor can do.

That’s definitely not my intention. It’s just that this new and larger temperature jump in 2023-2024 is so new. We know that in the 8 year period 2015-2016 to 2022-2023 with the higher baseline temperature the ceiling at Boston was 59.9” and NYC maxed out at 40.9”. So we are all probably just taking educated guesses at to what the new ceiling at these even warmer levels will be. All we know for sure is that the most recent 7 year running average along the I-95 corridor is the lowest on record for the combined station average.

I don’t understand why anyone will come on these forums and openly mock anyone for having the courage to post long range ideas like we do here. While we may disagree from time to time, I have respect for anyone willing to make the effort of presenting their ideas. Another issue is that these temperature jumps have been occurring more frequently. So we had a longer period from 1993 to 2015 when we had similar background conditions responsible for the record seasonal snows. The more recent jump from 2015-2016 only lasted until 2024-2025 when another steep background temperature rise occurred. So it’s uncertain how much longer until we get at this new baseline before we see another big rise again. Not even sure if when I give a ceiling like 55” to 85” at Boston that this period will last long enough for something in the 70” to 85” to be even possible. Since the shorter number of years at each regime level may not allow enough time for the full temperature range to occur.

I am not sure if we will be able to forecast a season like that in advance though. It could just pop up after all the seasonal forecasts have been issued during the fall. Sometimes all it takes is one event finding the BM track and a few follow up storms behind it. But I don’t know when we could see another at least 1 month excursion like January 2022 with the brief return of the BM tracks. If we had a few more weeks of that pattern maybe Boston could have done 60-70”. Hard to say for sure.

I left a pretty generous possible ceiling in the 55” to 85” range going forward for Boston. For NYC Central Park I a going for a ceiling under 50”. So even if we don’t see a repeat of the 1993 to 2015 era, there could still be good snowfall outcomes to be had from time to time at some point in the future. Plus the areas to the NW of the DC to Boston I-95 corridor have a higher ceiling than the NYC and Boston proper areas since they are colder and at higher elevations.

I never said that. I know that you are probably in a rush. But just go back and look at my posts made yesterday.

Exactly. The great thing about this forum is that everyone can come on and discuss their ideas. I enjoy reading your posts and wouldn’t want you to stop posting.

New all-time October high of 83° set up at Caribou and several locations in Canada. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 83 25 2 2011 82 0 3 2023 79 0 - 2017 79 0 - 2005 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1947 79 0 4 1983 78 0 - 1970 78 0 5 2024 77 0 - 2021 77 0 - 2002 77 0 - 2001 77 0 - 1979 77 0 - 1950 77 0 - 1946 77 0

Water conservation measures announced in some localities as the reservoir levels get down to 70%. This has been a top 10 driest fall to fall period across the region. Nantucket has been one of the driest spots with the coastal storms getting suppressed to our south. https://www.wfsb.com/2025/10/03/bristol-mayor-announces-water-restrictions-amid-drought/?outputType=amp

We usually don’t get two mismatch La Niña years in a row. So I wasn’t expecting another one this year. Plus the ACE usually declines in the following years from peak seasons like last year which went 161.

So far we are getting the weaker October MJO 5-6 amplitude from the available forecasts. This is similar to 16-17, 21-22, and 22-23. Last October was the stronger amplitude like 20-21 and 17-18. So we got the much stronger +PNA mismatch from those winters. So the early indicators are this winter will be warmer than last winter was with a weaker PNA than last winter. But there could still be +PNA intervals. Snowfall is tricky since the snowfall was so low anyway last winter. So I don’t have a clear signal yet whether the smowfall will be below, similar to or above last winter. I will refine the snowfall forecast once we see what happens in December. If the areas around NYC are below 4” again like last years December La Niña, then it will be another below average season. The lower ACE this year is also following what we experienced in 2016, 2021, and 2022. Meaning that there was a step down following the higher ACE years like we saw in 2024, 2020, and 2017.