bluewave
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Everything posted by bluewave
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The east based forcing would provide our 9th milder winter in a row. The forcing near the Dateline could help out with a rogue blockbuster snowstorm like 2016. So a relative improvement over the poor snowfall showing last winter.
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Big change in the North Atlantic SST configuration. First time with a cold pool off the Northeast in years. Not sure how long this will last.
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The Euro seasonal is going for split forcing near the Dateline and EPAC.
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Nothing has been able to shut down the the Nina MJO phases. Remember the MJO 4-6 activity with the record IOD in the fall of 2019 into 2020. Then the record MJO 4-6 in December 2015. The record WPAC warm pool has had been a big player.
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We got the WWBs but they were in the WPAC and EPAC instead of near the Dateline. Would be an interesting study to see what lead to this particular evolution. The WPAC kelvin wave development from last winter was in response to the IO WWBs crossing into the WPAC. Then the anomalous EPAC WWB in March rapidly warmed the EPAC.
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Yeah, this could be only the 3rd June after 1997 and 2015 with a +1 or greater anomaly in Nino 3.4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii
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The EPAC subsurface spreading west plus the new kelvin wave puts +2C in Nino 3.4 within reach. Never saw this happen before with WWBs in the EPAC and WPAC with little near the Dateline. The quick Nino 3.4 rise to near + 1C is matching some of the more aggressive model forecasts. Could result in our first 1.5C global temperature departure coming earlier than projected. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtm
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At least it isn’t 758 like a few years ago in Oregon but this is bad enough. https://www.insider.com/west-coast-hazardous-air-quality-worst-on-earth-wildfire-smoke-2020-9 But PurpleAir's monitors around Salem, Oregon, reported AQIs as high as 758 on Friday morning.
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Another one of these off the charts blocking ridges.
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Little bigger than pea sized hail here in SW Suffolk with giant rain drops.
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Got a brief downpour here in SW Suffolk.
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The Western Pacific is starting out more like 2015 than any of the other really strong El Niño years. Those +30C SSTs pull the forcing west closer to the Dateline instead of tucked in near South America in an event like 97-98. So more of a basin wide event rather than east based. The latest ECMWF has a +1.6 to+1.7 anomaly in Nino 4 which would average out to +29C to +30C.
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In the old days before the expansion of the WPAC warm pool. https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html A research group, led by Dr. Wenjun Zhang from the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology analyzed MJO activity of the super El Niño event during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015/16. Observations show that the western Pacific MJO activity was strongly suppressed during the peak phase of the 1982/83 and 1997/98 super El Niño events. However, during the crest of the 2015/16 super El Niño event, western Pacific MJO-related convection was enhanced. "It is apparent that the enhanced western Pacific MJO is mainly related to its sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly distribution and the associated background thermodynamic conditions." said Dr. Zhang. His team's complete research and data are published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. When compared to the previous super El Niño events, the warm SST anomaly, or change from average, of the 2015/16 El Niño was located more westward than during the other two extreme seasons. Additionally, no significant cold SST anomaly was detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the moisture and air temperature tended to increase in the central-western Pacific during the winter of 2015/16 unlike the previous super El Niño events.
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While the Euro forcing will be out soon, the meteo France forecast maintains more of a westward lean to the forcing even with 1+2 and 3 so warm. Probably related to the lingering WPAC warm pool and warmer waters spreading west into Nino 4. Plus it takes the WWBs longer in the forecast to get east of the Dateline. I believe this would be a first. Maintains the unusual WPAC and EPAC WWB pattern for a while longer. If this forecast verifies, the continuing odd WWB pattern will probably have papers written about it. Especially if some of these model forecasts pushing +2C in Nino 3.4 work out. All the other events of this magnitude had strong WWBs near the Dateline from the spring onward. This one is the strongest on record so far in June with a split WWB pattern in the WPAC and EPAC. http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?language=en
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This was the 2nd lowest 500 mb heights near the pole for May with the deep +AO +NAO trough that was in place.
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Those El Niños evolved from strong CP WWBs driving the kelvin waves into the EP. This one is developing from EPAC and WPAC WWBs. So the effect at the surface is similar with 1.2 warming first and expanding westward.
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Reaching +0.7 to 0.8 in 3.4 this time of year is when we get some conformation that we could have a stronger event. Just emerging from the spring forecast barrier period. This is the first time since 1950 with this much warming with weaker WWBs in the Central Pacific. So a much different evolution this year than in the past. Longer range models hinting at split forcing between the WPAC and EPAC as the El Niño continues to develop. Spring 2023 much weaker WWBs in Central Pacific vs previous years near or over +1.0 in Nino 3.4 during June.
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Yeah, spring is our only season without a +1 monthly rise in temperatures with the release of the new climate normals. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5
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First 50° drop at SMQ in 2 days during June since 1999. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&v=tmpf&hours=36&month=jun&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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The dry conditions let the high temperature departures to warm up while the lower dewpoints allowed for great radiational cooling.
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1997 at this point was warmer east of the Dateline. But this year is warmer west of the Dateline. So the actual forcing is displaced further west. This is currently an east based El Niño by departures, but its forcing is further west where the warmest SSTs are located.
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We don’t usually see all those blues near the Dateline with a developing El Niño this time of year. So hard to say how much more 3.4 will warm beyond +0.5C. Maybe the light oranges near 120W will maintain Nino 1+2 around +2. But no WWBs as strong as we saw back in March. So +2.7 still looks like it will remain the peak in +1.2. The GFS is similar.
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One of the reasons I joined the old forum was the quality of Don’s posts. Then I just followed the whole crew over here. Uncle was another poster I enjoyed reading back in those days before I started to posting myself.
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Nice job by Don getting retweeted by the SERCC.
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The earlier arrival of spring sets the stage for these late season killing freezes. Albany Area, NYPeriod of record: 1874-01-01 through 2023-05-26DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 4/13 89 in 2023 87 in 1977 85 in 1945 4/14 89 in 2023 83 in 1968 83 in 1938 https://www.timesunion.com/hudsonvalley/news/article/grapes-apples-freeze-crops-18114499.php Grout was not alone. Several crops in the Hudson Valley suffered significant damage after Thursday’s unseasonably low temperatures, which saw temperatures falling to 28 degrees in Guilderland, 31 degrees in Colonie and 27 degrees in Hudson. One farming expert estimated that 30-35 percent of the region’s apple crop had been lost. Grapes were hit harder, with crops north of New York City impacted and some vineyards reporting losses of 100 percent.
