bluewave
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Same here. Picked up .50 in 15 minutes. The atmosphere was saturated with 75° dew points and 2.00” PWATS. It’s one of the few times I had fog and light drizzle transition to such a heavy downpour in July.
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I was talking about the lower soil moisture south of I-78 in mid-June and how it would likely be a temporary situation before the heavier rains eventually arrived. This has been the pattern in recent years. Brief drier patterns of lower soil moisture before more impressive heavier rains than the brief drier patterns which preceded them. I also posted how the area has only seen D0 to D2 drought conditions since the last real drought here in 01-02 reaching a D3 requiring actual water restrictions in NYC. So in effect these have been nuisance dry patterns resulting in brown lawns. But here in CT we never really got into the brown lawn situation since it was cooler and wetter than in NJ. Whenever the dew points go 75° to 80° and PWATS reach 2.00”+ we always get very heavy to locally torrential downpours.
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It’s been the wettest July to June period up here with 80.00”+ in spots. Data for July 1, 2023 through July 6, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 84.92 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 83.36 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 82.91 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 82.61 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 81.36 NY WEST POINT COOP 81.33 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 81.25 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 81.21 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 81.07 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 81.05 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 80.81 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 80.58 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 80.39 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 80.14
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The forecast from the ECMWF for La Nada during NDJ is identical to this point in 2016 after that super El Niño. Remember the ECMWF runs warm with its forecast plumes. The forecast was for -0.2 in NDJ and -0.7 verified. The actual ONI weakened to La Nada -0.3 in DJF. It matched the other weaker La Niña to La Nada winters which had the very strong La Niña background state. So it will be interesting to see how this one ends up and whether we follow the recent pattern of the La Nada and weak La Niña running warmer than the stronger La Ninas. We probably have to wait until we get more clues in the fall. But every La Niña regardless of strength since 11-12 has been warmer than average in the Northeast. The stronger ones finished with a smaller warm departure than the weaker ones. Snowfall was more variable with the stronger events snowier than the weaker ones. This usually followed the October early MJO indicator. Plus we have had 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row following the new and warmer global temperature baseline following the 15-16 super El Niño. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2016-July-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ECMWF model -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
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Looks like .90” at Fresh Kills in only 10 min. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Yeah, close to the all-time highest dew points around your region today. The all-time highest temperatures missed to our south today. Glad you are getting better rainfall recently. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 438 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2024 ...ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT RALEIGH NC... THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 106 DEGREES WAS SET AT RALEIGH NC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS ALL TIME RECORD HIGH OF 105 WHICH WAS SET MOST RECENTLY IN 2012. TODAY'S OLD RECORD OF 102 DEGREES WAS SET IN 1999.
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We started to see a change during the 10-11 and 11-12 multiyear La Niña. 10-11 was one of our strongest La Ninas and best winters. The weaker 11-12 was much warmer and less snowy. Before this the weaker La Ninas were colder and snowier and the stronger ones warmer and less snowy.
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Looks like 2nd highest dew point at SMQ on the hourly updates since records started in 1999. Not sure if those off hour 5 min higher obs at 81° were considered official. The chart below is only for hourly updates. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSMQ&hours=72 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&var=max_dwpf&w=all&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=jul&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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The weaker ONI La Ninas over the last decade have been warmer than the stronger ones. Not sure if we get a continuation of this theme going forward. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
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SMQ is becoming the new Miami with dew points in the upper 70s again after last weekend. Somerville PTSUNNY 87 78
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If the -PDO and marine heatwaves in those areas continue to be this strong going into the fall and winter, then it would probably mean a highly amplified Aleutian ridge. You can see the last frame of the Euro showing this. The recent CANSIPS was also moving toward this look in its recent update. So a very strong La Niña background state even if the ONI is only in La Nada to weak La Niña territory.
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The Euro is similar to the SPC HREF next few days. Mid to upper 70s dew points and the potential for locally heavy downpours. Looks like the sea breeze boundaries and pre frontal trough will be the focus for convection and high dew point pooling.
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I am guessing that the weaker Nino 3.4 and stronger -PDO are related to the current global record SSTs. We are just coming off a borderline super El Niño event so it naturally takes longer for Nino 3.4 to cool. This is what happened during the 16-17 La Niña following the 15-16 super El Niño. It took until the following season in 17-18 for the La Niña SSTs and ONI to drop lower. So the Euro rushed the cooling of Nino 3.4 from the forecasts issued back in the spring. The same way it tried to weaken the current marine heatwave east of Japan and south of the Aleutians. So both SST areas are now warmer in the recent forecast issued about an hour ago. The current record -PDO is allowing a much stronger La Niña atmospheric response than expected from just using the official ONI SSTs. As per the MJO details, we usually have to wait until at least October to get some hints as it’s usually less amplified during the warm season. New Euro run stronger marine heatwave south of Aleutians and east of Japan continuing to drive the stronger -PDO heading into fall Older run weaker marine heatwave south of Aleutians and -PDO and stronger La Niña cooling in Nino 3.4
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It will be interesting to see if we can get some remnant moisture from Beryl next weekend.
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Those are just the RMM plots which are usually less amplified this time of year. But the main forcing as per the VP anomalies since June 20th has been MJO 3-6. It’s forecast to continue into July as the convection slowly travels east. So we are getting a very strong La Niña atmospheric response based on the ongoing marine heatwaves west of the Dateline in the tropics and east of Japan.
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Today looks like the beginning of our dominant July pattern next few weeks as high dew points and PWATS result in convection chances most days. Big WAR to our east and trough over the Midwest. So the daily focus for convection once the convective temperatures are met should be near the area.
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First time that both May and June had monthly -PDO readings under -3.00. So it appears that the -PDO is delivering a very strong Niña-like atmospheric response. Notice how the VP anomalies are similar to what we would see during a very robust La Niña in July. This means the actual La Niña SST values east of the Dateline may not matter as much as long as this -PDO continues at record low values. The record SST warmth east of Japan and in the MJO 4-7 regions are carrying the La Niña signal even though the official La Niña regions east of the Dateline are slower to cool after such a strong El Niño. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
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That 111° record at Phoenixville in July 1936 looks like another obvious error which wasn’t corrected. There has never been another instance of Phoenixville running 7° warmer than Philadelphia during a July heatwave with Philadelphia reaching 101° or higher. All other occasions of Philadelphia reaching 101° in July when Phoenixville temperatures were also available were within a 0 to 3° difference. July…1966 Philadelphia…104° Phoenixville…104° July….1936 Philadelphia……104° Phoenixville…....111° July….2010 Philadelphia….103° Phoenixville…..103° July……1995 Philadelphia…..103° Phoenixville…..100° July……1930 Philadelphia…..103° Phoenixville…..106° July…..1988 Philadelphia……102° Phoenixville……99° July…..1954 Philadelphia….102° Phoenixville…..104° July…….1917 Philadelphia…..101° Phoenixville……99°
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That ridge over the Atlantic may approach a new record this time of year around 600 dam. If it was right in top of us it would mean more 100° heat. But there is enough of a trough to our west for clouds and convection give us a break from 100° heat. But the very high dew points could give us 100° heat indices instead.
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Looks like a Florida pattern has we head into the extended July 4th weekend. PWATS over 2.00” and 75°+dew points. So as soon as we reach convective temperatures each day the thunderstorms will pop up.
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We can use the ESRL data as a proxy for the RMM plots. This year had the most convection for such a strong El Niño in the WPAC with the warmest SSTs in that region. It resulted in much stronger forcing in the WPAC than usual for such a strong El Niño. Also notice how much stronger the Aleutian ridge was than in the other El Niños. The heights were also higher than average over Mexico. So this was more of a hybrid ENSO event made up of a borderline super El Niño and Niña-Like -PDO and MJO forcing.
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Our last two strong to super El Niños in 15-16 and 23-24 had much weaker troughs along the Southern Tier than in the 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73 El Niños. My guess is it’s related to the record MJO 4-7 activity. It looks like the unusual ridge over Mexico for such a strong El Niño was a precursor to the record heat this spring into early summer there.
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72-23 was a much colder winter across the entire CONUS with a historic Southeast snowstorm. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/Feb1973Snow
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