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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    The key with the La Niña background state and +PNAs is that we need very strong +PNAs to prevent an upper low from undercutting the +PNA ridge. This coming week is an example of the +PNA not being strong enough to prevent the upper low from undercutting the ridge. This is the issue we have had during many recent winters. We need a stronger monthly +PNA to prevent the upper low from undercutting the ridge. Jan 2023 La Niña and the +PNA was too weak at only +0.21 for the month allowing deep trough underneath and +10 warmest January on record in the Northeast December 2011 +PNA too weak at only +0.36 allowing Baja Trough underneath and one of the warmest Decembers on record Jan 2022+1.01 +PNA allowed heavy snows especially east of NYC Dec 2020 +1.58 +PNA one of the strongest on record allowing historic 40” snow for BGM with -AO
  2. bluewave
    Looks like the models have shifter to weaker WAR next week so the low can come further north. 588 dm seems to be the key level. Higher and you get suppression like older runs. Lower like new and we get a wetter pattern developing. These are the highest tides with the full moon of the month so we only need around .5 to 1 foot of surge for minor coastal flooding. With the high to north and low to south we are looking at days of easterly flow. New run Old run Minor coastal flooding begins at 6.5 to 7.0 ft tide level
  3. bluewave
    Can’t really use any years as an ACE comparison to this one. All the other years with this level of activity by Mid-September were due to colder SSTs or El Niños. This is the first time that the Atlantic was this warm and only had 6 named storms by September 15th. The big shift in the ITCZ is probably playing a role.
  4. bluewave
    Luckily, we haven’t had major drought conditions here since 2002. While the South Shore has had brown lawn episodes from time to time, it was nothing like what we had in 1995, 1999, and early 2000s with those droughts. Plus many times there were watering restrictions in those days so you couldn’t even water in some areas if you wanted to. But it’s nearly impossible to avoid nuisance soil moisture dry patterns from time to time. We learned this growing up on the South Shore when the sea breeze fronts often favor the North Shore especially early to mid summer. Long Beach always had issues with trees dropping leaves in the summer . All those Long Beach Sycamores were notorious for early leaf drops before all the Sandy damage. Then nearly all of them that were left had to be removed due to the salt water damage from the surge. The last 15 year period has also featured the most wind damage to trees we have ever seen across the area. So the tree removal and trimming business probably has never been better. We had to have a bunch of trees removed when I was back in SW Suffolk due to wind damage.
  5. bluewave
    We’ll gladly take some drier weather up here as parts of CT have seen over 100” of precipitation since last July. Some spots in Rockland are also getting close. In NJ the areas around 90” are north of 80. So I can see how areas south of 80 haven’t been able to get the amounts the areas further north did. Even though Central NJ has had great long term totals, they have been in and out of short term soil moisture dryness. Mainly a function of how hot the summer was. Parts of Central NJ saw their first year with over 20 days reaching 95°. So it’s tough for spots with that much heat not to have the vegetation get dry when much of the convection was riding north of 78 and 80. Data for July 1, 2023 through September 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 101.74 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 98.99 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 97.95 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 97.27 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 96.85 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 96.31 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 96.16 NY WEST POINT COOP 94.95 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 94.81 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 94.53 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 94.26 Data for July 1, 2023 through September 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ MINE HILL TWP 0.4 NE CoCoRaHS 91.06 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 90.12 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending most 95° days on record 1 2024 21 2 2002 17 0 3 1955 16 8 4 1953 14 0 5 2021 13 0 - 2018 13 1 - 2016 13 2 - 2010 13 4 - 1988 13 0 - 1949 13 0
  6. bluewave
    Places in Canada that recently saw the record early snow will also have the highest departures as these over the top warm ups have become the new normal.
  7. bluewave
    The interesting thing this time is that the 500mb low will be near the deepest on record on the West Coast for the month of September. It would be average for the winter. Also record positive 500 mb heights for Eastern Canada.
  8. bluewave
    If not next week then perhaps some time later in the month. Very rare to get a top 10 driest month these days. But if the WAR keeps flexing then who knows. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 0.08 19 2 1941 0.14 0 3 2005 0.45 0 4 1951 0.95 0 5 1972 1.03 0 6 1948 1.14 0 - 1939 1.14 0 7 1931 1.19 0 8 1953 1.25 0 9 1964 1.30 0 10 1967 1.35 0
  9. bluewave
    Models struggling with the energy digging into the West and the ridge over the Northeast. This is why every run has been different with the rainfall forecast next week. On one hand this ridge has been correcting stronger in the long range. But the other side of the coin is that these shallow drier patterns seldom last long. So a tug of war between these competing patterns. New run Old run
  10. bluewave
    Even the summer of 2022 was nothing like how brown the lawns were back on the Long Island South Shore in July 1999.
  11. bluewave
    The lawns and all the grass around Tweed look really great.
  12. bluewave
    We have had such a huge surplus of rainfall that everything is just as green and lush looking here as it was before the recent drier period.
  13. bluewave
    Parts of Long Island and CT have had 15-20” over the same period. Data for July 13, 2024 through September 12, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY ST. JAMES COOP 19.35 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 19.20 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 19.11 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 17.96 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 16.75 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.55 CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 16.45 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 15.95 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 15.92 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 15.90 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 15.86 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 15.64
  14. bluewave
    The real heat was always forecast to go north relative to the averages. New run Old run
  15. bluewave
    The Southeast Ridge or Western Atlantic Ridge has been the most dominant feature of the last 9 winters. This is why the Northeast has seen an historic 9 warmer winters in a row. We have never seen a run like this going back to 1950 regardless of what the other teleconnections were doing. So it may be time for a new custom index.
  16. bluewave
    It been a -3 start to September but it looks like we will eventually turn positive as the rest of the month looks well above average.
  17. bluewave
    That ridge is the main reason we have had 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row.
  18. bluewave
    Won’t be much rain up here if two near record 590+ dm ridges verify. You can see the shift in just one Euro run. Hopefully, this isn’t a preview of next winter. New run Old run
  19. bluewave
    Yeah, I am south of Route 1 not far from the shore. We had dinner the other night up on Route 80 and it was a few degrees cooler. Thanks, it was always a challenge getting much radiational cooling south of Merrick Road in Suffolk. Same went for living on a barrier island back in Long Beach. I radiate better here being near a nice woodland area. Saw two deer, a wild turkey, and a fleeting glimpse of a coyote running in the distance.
  20. bluewave
    One of the things I really enjoy about living in CT is how fast it cools off once the sun goes down with the great radiational cooling. I didn’t have this back on the Long Island Shore. Already had 8 nights in the 50s this month so far.
  21. bluewave
    All you would need to do is build a snowman in Times Square if we could ever get such a favorable Atlantic and Pacific pattern again in the coming winters like Jan 16.
  22. bluewave
    These south based blocks linking up with the Southeast Ridge didn’t really become more common until the 2020s. We seldom had issues with these during the epic snowfall run from 09-10 to 17-18. Teleconnections don’t operate in a vacuum as they are influenced by our warming climate as these competing marine heatwaves expand their coverage. As I have shown these recent -PDO -PNA -AOs -NAOs are much warmer and less snowy than their counterparts from the 1950s into the 1970s.
  23. bluewave
    It will probably be suppressed for the next 7 days as this ridge over the Northeast is one of the strongest on record. Plenty of days of easterly onshore flow and building tides and waves as we approach the full moon on the 20th. Hopefully, we get something at the tail end as the low will probably eventually lift north as the high weakens by later next week.
  24. bluewave
    Great late summer weekend coming up with upper 80s to around 90 for the unusual spots in NJ away from the sea breeze. This will be a near record ridge for mid-September around 591 dm. So it’s why the long range models are suggesting that a tropical system or subtropical low will try to cutoff underneath.
  25. bluewave
    February 16-17th was a strong -EPO+PNA like I mentioned as being favorable for snow in our area. It wasn’t a hostile -PNA pattern. But the issue is that these transient favorable patterns that I mentioned can be too brief for more than a few highly localized decent snows like that narrow corridor in NJ got. The favorability window was just too brief for a great area wide event. That’s why in our local thread last winter I was talking about that brief window of opportunity as the forcing finally shifted well east of the Dateline closer to an MJO 8 configuration. We literally had one week to work with in mid-February and it was in the 60s before and after this period. Very hard for widespread parts of the area to reach normal snowfall with such a short period to work with. Many more places did better in the Jan 2022 +PNA -EPO since it was a month long pattern. The big issue is that these Pacific patterns turned more hostile in 18-19. So the only above average snowfall season in NYC in the last 6 years was 20-21. We had that great +PNA -AO-NAO pattern. Even though the snowfall outcome was the best of the decade so far, it was still a warmer than average winter in our area. This is how we have put together a record breaking 9 warmer than normal winters in a row.
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