bluewave

It will initially start out as an over the top warm up with the near record 590 dm ridge for late October. But it takes several days for the warmest temps to make into the region like we saw over the summer. It’s late October so we will be getting highs of 75-80°. When we had a near record 500mb ridge back over the summer it was 95°-100°. We got lucky that this dry pattern since August 20th is well past the peak summer heating.

These big ridges over the Northeast have become the new normal as the GFS and Euro are both at least 590 dm.

It makes perfect sense if you understand that the ranking is done by the temperature and not the year. So multiple years can share the same temperature. It makes no sense to leave a gap in the ranks just because a tie occurs. Ties in scores are handled by giving the tied rows the same rank, and the next rank is then incremented without any gaps.

Stronger winds today than model forecasts since the high temps beating guidance again resulted in steeper low level lapse rates.

It’s a more accurate way of keeping statistical rankings when the distribution becomes more skewed to either the top or bottom of the range. The old way came about when we were in a stable climate era and month after month wasn’t in the top 10 warmest. So ranks aren’t skipped since there can be numerous ties near the top 10 in a rapidly warming climate. Creating gaps due to numerous ties artificially pushes similar temperatures out of the top 10. The NWS out in Upton has been doing it this way also. DENSE_RANK () does not leave gapsin the rank sequence when there are ties in the ordering. It ensures that rows with the same values in the ORDER BY clause receive the same rank, and the next rank is then incremented without any gaps

If this dry pattern continues through November, then it would be the first time that Long Island had a driest season since 2001-2002. The driest seasons at ISP were the fall of 1965, winter 2001-2002, spring 1995, and summer 1966. Even if ISP can increase the rainfall enough in November, it could still finish close to 2001 which was the 2nd driest fall on record. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 0.34 48 2 1965 3.31 0 3 2001 4.02 0 4 2013 4.86 0 5 1973 5.38 0 6 1998 5.96 0 7 1982 6.34 0 8 2007 6.50 0 9 1967 6.56 0 10 1994 7.42 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 5.38 0 2 1979-1980 5.51 0 3 1984-1985 5.67 0 4 1976-1977 6.04 0 5 1966-1967 6.58 0 6 2011-2012 6.86 0 - 1980-1981 6.86 0 7 1985-1986 7.47 0 8 1963-1964 7.94 2 9 2003-2004 8.04 0 10 1999-2000 8.05 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1995 6.00 0 2 1965 6.08 2 3 1986 6.49 0 4 1976 6.85 0 5 1981 6.95 0 6 2015 7.15 0 7 2013 7.22 0 8 1969 8.24 0 9 1985 8.30 0 10 1992 8.45 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1966 3.67 0 2 2005 3.74 0 3 1988 4.52 0 4 2022 4.75 0 5 1993 4.91 0 6 1964 5.10 0 7 2016 5.25 0 8 1974 6.13 0 9 1995 6.76 0 10 2015 7.27 0

Going to be tough to get much rain here with the models advertising a near record 590 dm ridge for next weekend.

While we still have big rainfall surplus since July 2023, several stations have had their driest start to fall. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-10-12 0.89 0 2 1941-10-12 1.24 0 3 1931-10-12 1.58 0 4 1953-10-12 1.78 0 5 2013-10-12 1.92 0 - 1970-10-12 1.92 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-10-12 0.83 0 2 2009-10-12 1.32 0 3 1986-10-12 1.73 0 4 1964-10-12 1.85 0 5 1970-10-12 1.90 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-10-12 0.34 0 2 1982-10-12 1.28 0 3 2019-10-12 1.38 0 4 1997-10-12 1.42 0 5 1986-10-12 1.63 0

No. I used dense rank sorting by temperature. https://medium.com/@kumarsatwik25/rank-and-dense-rank-in-sql-23ffcf77611e DENSE RANK (): The DENSE_RANK () function is a window function in SQL that assigns a unique rank to each distinct row within a result set, based on a specified ordering. Unlike the RANK () function, DENSE_RANK () does not leave gapsin the rank sequence when there are ties in the ordering. It ensures that rows with the same values in the ORDER BY clause receive the same rank, and the next rank is then incremented without any gaps.

The record warmth in Canada seems like a lingering El Niño influence combined with record Pacific WPAC warm pool going back to 2023.

Cooler week 1 followed by warmer week 2 with the dry pattern continuing. October 14-21 Oct 21-28

These new 1991-2020 climate normals as so warm that a small +1.4 summer in Boston was still the 9th warmest average temperature at 73°. While I know farming and energy customers need these regular climate normals updates, they tend to minimize the warming which has occurred. The next time we see a cooler winter in the Northeast, it could be a result of the new much warmer winter climate normals. But would have been considered a warmer winter in our older climate era. Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021 74.6 0 2 1983 74.1 0 - 1949 74.1 0 3 2022 74.0 0 4 1994 73.9 0 5 2019 73.7 0 - 2018 73.7 0 6 2016 73.6 0 - 2010 73.6 0 7 1952 73.4 0 8 1984 73.3 0 9 2024 73.0 0 - 1973 73.0 0 10 2020 72.9 0 - 2013 72.9 0

A rare October 40° temperature gradient today with 80° in NJ and closer to 40° in NY State.

The 38.5° NYC average over the last 9 years was a little warmer than the DCA 1981-2010 winter average of 38.2°. https://ggweather.com/normals/DC81.html

I believe this may be the first time in U.S. history that a part of the county experienced 9 consecutive warmer than average winters with numerous all-time winter warmth records being set. Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9

My dew point dropped 10° in a hour. Areas just to my north are in the upper 20s. So a continuation of the very dry theme with RH near only 20%. Meriden SUNNY 74 29 19 NW18G31 29.88R New Haven SUNNY 75 37 25 N17G30 29.88S https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmmk

It’s really impressive how strong and persistent the Aleutian Ridge had become this year. The ridge keeps driving this record breaking -PDO pattern. 500 mb heights have been at record levels for an extended period.

Yeah, I get some nice radiational cooling inversions here just to the east of KHVN. It’s a change from living on the South Shore of LI where it was tough to get any radiational cooling. It’s neat how quickly the temperature falls off once the sun sets under good radiational cooling conditions.

Yeah, a very sharp cutoff to the warmth somewhere near your area especially on the higher res guidance where the warm front stalls out.

Euro really struggling lately as we saw with several of those Milton runs which were too far north. We are back to getting warm sectored on Sunday now. So the 80° highs should push further north in NJ. A continuation of the northern and eastern sections doing better on rainfall. New run Old run

We are getting a very strong October La Niña atmospheric response with a record 500mb +EPO Alaskan vortex for October producing the winds to 100 mph in Alaska.

The 91-20 means have gotten so warm that a small +0.6 SEP departure at Newark still ranks within the top 20 warmest monthly average temperatures. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1961 74.5 0 2 2005 73.5 0 3 2015 73.4 0 4 2021 72.5 0 5 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 6 2010 71.6 0 7 1959 71.5 0 8 2018 71.4 0 9 2023 71.2 0 - 2011 71.2 0 10 1973 71.0 0 - 1931 71.0 0 11 2017 70.9 0 12 2019 70.8 0 - 1980 70.8 0 13 1968 70.7 0 14 1983 70.6 0 - 1970 70.6 0 15 2002 70.5 0 16 1998 70.3 0 17 1985 70.2 0 18 2007 70.1 0 19 1989 69.9 0 20 2024 69.8 0 - 2014 69.8 0 - 1972 69.8 0

We saw the same left of track averaged model forecast bias at play with Hurricane Charley in 2004. It was originally forecast to come closer to Tampa Bay. Some of the models had more of a bias than others as you mentioned. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/

I have noticed that the model forecasts which the official forecasts are based on have had too much of a left of track bias with the major hurricanes near the Southwest and Central Florida Gulf coast in recent years. Not sure if this is somehow related to frictional effects of the hurricane circulation encountering the FL west Coast or another factor? In any event, this has worked out for Tampa Bay since they never want to see the RFQ of a major hurricane landfall. So the storm was about 25-30 miles to the right of some of the earlier forecasts. Ian and Irma followed a similar forecast evolution pattern but were a little further right. Perhaps related to the longer land interaction?

At least May 2020 delivered.