bluewave

I had to add an extra step to those instructions for it to work. I changed the x to twittter but didn’t get the paste as plain text message. So I hit the back key and closed out the post. Then hit post again and pasted and got the post as plain text message and then it worked. Been hearing this issue is happening to many forums across the web following twitter changing to X. I thank everyone for the suggestions and am glad I got it to work with the extra step I added.

Yeah, our sensible weather here in the Northeast is determined by the combination of several teleconnections or 500mb anomaly centers acting in concert. But the +PNA influence during the last 7 summers left open the possibility of a slightly cooler than average outcomes when combined with factors such as the NAO and AO. This was the case in the summers of 2023 and 2017. So our summers since the 2015-2016 super El Niño have featured 6 out of 8 warmer than average to record warm summers. The winters have featured 9 out of 9 warmer to record warmer years in a row since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This has been more impressive with the record Western Pacific warm pool driven MJO 4-7 record activity. We will probably need to find a marine heatwave somewhere else strong enough in coming winters to shift the dominant forcing away from the Maritime Continent if we are to see a colder than normal winter again. But I am currently not seeing where or how such a shift away from a warm to record warm winter pattern of the last 9 years will happen.

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. I posted earlier on the lack of 90° days during the last week of May since 2010 at Newark and fewer total annual 90° days than the years with 90°+ heat. This pattern continuing into the first week of June is running counter to the other El Niño to La Niña transition summers. These summers have traditionally featured very high 90° day counts. Either the pattern turns around during the 2nd half of June or the competing marine heatwaves around the world are interfering with the traditional El Niño to La Niña summer pattern this year. We probably will need more time to sort things out.

We now have competing explanations on that North Atlantic cold blob. Some studies find it’s related to the slowing AMOC and others to stronger winds from increased storminess and +NAO. So it may take some time to figure out which feature is having a bigger influence. https://www.psu.edu/news/institute-computational-and-data-sciences/story/increased-storminess-may-give-rise-north-atlantics/ In a study published in Climate Dynamics, the researchers report that a northward shift in the jet stream is contributing to a cooling of about .7 degrees Fahrenheit over the past century. Using computer simulations, the researchers found that more than half — 54% — of the observed cooling trend is a result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere. Strengthened local convection — whereby ocean mixing brings cold water from depth to the surface — explains another 38% of the trend. According to the team, storminess increased in the region because the jet stream moved northward. As a result, there are more frequent and more intense storms in this region. The increase in storminess creates a stronger heat loss from the ocean and induces stronger convection in winter, leading to cooler temperatures in the region. https://www.psu.edu/news/research/story/north-atlantic-oscillation-contributes-cold-blob-atlantic-ocean/ UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — A patch of ocean in the North Atlantic is stubbornly cooling while much of the planet warms. This anomaly — dubbed the "cold blob" — has been linked to changes in ocean circulation, but a new study found changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns may play an equally important role, according to an international research team led by Penn State. “People often think the atmosphere has a very short memory, but here we provide evidence that atmospheric circulation change is significant enough to induce some long-term impact on the climate system,” said corresponding author Laifang Li, assistant professor of meteorology and atmospheric science at Penn State. Sea surface temperatures in the subpolar North Atlantic have decreased by about .7 degrees Fahrenheit over the last century, and a trend toward a more frequent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) may have contributed significantly, the scientists reported in the journal Climate Dynamics.

A great map demonstrating why the -PDO was near daily record lows the last few days. There was an area of SSTs south of the Western Aleutians which were the warmest on record for the month of May. Also notice large areas of the tropical Western Pacific were also the warmest on record for the month of May. https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1797698712766173461 May 2024 sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warmer than any other May on record. May 2024 SSTs exceeded the record set just last year by 0.11°C (18.76°C vs 18.65°C global averages).

The means are in 9th place for warmest. But the 90° heat has been muted by all the onshore flow, clouds, and showers. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-03 78.6 0 2 2011-06-03 76.4 0 3 2007-06-03 76.0 0 4 2016-06-03 75.8 0 5 2010-06-03 74.4 0 6 1986-06-03 73.9 0 7 2012-06-03 73.6 0 8 1989-06-03 73.3 0 9 2024-06-03 72.8 0 - 1999-06-03 72.8 0

Makes sense that the warming is lasting past the peak of other El Ninos since the warming also began earlier last year before the peak of previous El Ninos. So more conformation that there is something different is occurring with global temperatures surrounding this El Nino than previous ones. It’s possible we could see another record this June with recent global temperature rise the last few days. https://x.com/hausfath/status/1797658903297310756 We saw a notable spike in global temperatures in the final week of the month. If they persist, it makes it more likely we may see the hottest June on record as well: 11:57 AM · Jun 3, 2024 · 3,679 Views

Newark is on track for only the 3rd year since 2010 with no 90° readings between 5-25 and 6-7. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-06-07 89 4 2023-06-07 91 0 2022-06-07 98 0 2021-06-07 97 0 2020-06-07 91 0 2019-06-07 90 0 2018-06-07 92 0 2017-06-07 82 0 2016-06-07 96 0 2015-06-07 91 0 2014-06-07 88 0 2013-06-07 94 0 2012-06-07 92 0 2011-06-07 95 0 2010-06-07 95 0

The summer of 2017 to 2023 +PNA run was the longest on record since 1950 lasting 7 years. This June so far is a continuation of the streak. Everyone will be tracking the pattern next winter to see if the unprecedented 9 warmer to record warmer winters in a row around the Northeast makes it to 10 years.

Today may be the warmest day of the whole week with parts of NJ away from the sea breeze trying to make it to 90°.

Being driven by that ridiculous marine heat wave to the east of Japan and north of Hawaii. https://x.com/extremetemps/status/1797596879703908370 May 2024 in #Japan had a temperature anomaly of +0.67C above normal and was the 16th consecutive warmer than average month. Tokyo hasn't seen any colder than average month since late 2022. Maps by JMA. https://x.com/MercatorOcean/status/1795090981810819261 This week's Marine Heatwave Bulletin is online! For more data and forecasts, click here https

Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March. Newark Jun 1-2……….T May 25-25…..T May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 2 2024... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2024 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 86 112 PM 93 1989 77 9 91 2000 MINIMUM 62 406 AM 48 1945 59 3 64 1946 AVERAGE 74 68 6 78 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY T 2.96 1946 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE T 0.31 -0.31 0.00 The models are hinting at some shower and thunderstorm potential next weekend with the upper low closing off over the Great Lakes.

https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1797385397422432279 The black line on top is the 2024 sea sfc temp in mid FL Keys reef. The solid horizontal purple line is the bleaching threshold. We’ve already reached it, ~1 month ahead of 2023 - the worst mass bleaching event ever. To bleach, it would need to be sustained, but not a good sign

It also seems like our winter blocking episodes during the 2020s have shifted the strongest 500 mb anomalies further west into the AO domain. So we are getting weaker -NAO responses and ridging closer to Iceland. Even when the -AO was near record lows like in December 2022 closer to Greenland. So this has been allowing the further west blocks to link up with Southeast ridge. You can see the big difference between the La Niña Decembers of 2022 and 2010. December 2022 featured a -2.719 AO and -0.15 NAO with lower heights near Iceland. December 2010 had a -2.631 AO along with a much lower -1.85 NAO. My guess these shifts along with more south based -AOs in recent years are related to the global land and SST warming altering the way the teleconnections and 500 mb patterns manifest. The -PNA was even lower in December 2010 at -1.78 than the -0.66 PNA in December 2022.

Yeah, the +PNA -NAO tendency has been increasing during the summer. Winters have featured an increasing +NAO pattern. So while this winter was technically +PNA, the undercutting trough near the Western US functioned more like a -PNA. So we have had more of a -PNA 500MB look most winters since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Yeah, this would have been a great pattern last winter. Very impressive +PNA -NAO blocking for June. We’ll need to see exactly where the upper low closes off in order to know where the surface lows and rainfall chances will be the highest.

Yeah, right in cue the ridge is returning to the Western US as we start June. This has been the dominant summer pattern since the 15-16 super El Niño. But the winter pattern has been the opposite with more of a trough over the Western US and record ridging and warmth over the Northeast. So that record NE PAC block during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters shifted to the summer. And the winters have had trouble maintaining any type of ridging In these areas as a trough has been dominating out West. The recent exception was during January 22. That was the result of the MJO 8 pattern. But most of the winter MJO activity has been in the phase 4-7 range since the 15-16 super El Niño.

Unusual goings on with the stratosphere as such a strong -AO +PNA block isn’t what we typically see during El Niño to La Niña transition summers. Very comfortable early June temperatures for us. Almost looks like the Arctic pattern change around March 20th was so strong that it got stuck in place into the early summer. But now we have the +PNA to go with the -AO https://x.com/judah47/status/1795928965883826606

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/05/25/mexico-city-water-day-zero/#:~:text=Supplying water to 22 million,significant sinking around the city. MEXICO CITY — Raquel Campos’ water issues started in January, when her condo building’s manager sent residents a message saying that the city hadn’t delivered water to its cistern. Four days later, taps in the upscale residence went dry. Campos has lived in the wealthy Polanco neighborhood for 18 years and said she has never experienced water issues like this. Her husband paid to shower at a nearby hotel and she called water delivery companies that were overwhelmed with a sudden deluge of requests from the neighborhood. The water in Campos’ building came back within a few days, but with much lower pressure. Water is now delivered about every two weeks. Each unit has paid to cover the cost, increasing their monthly condo expenses by 30 percent. Water scarcity has long been an issue in Mexico City, with the brunt of the shortages happening in lower-income neighborhoods on the outskirts of the city center. But recently, residents in some of the city’s wealthier neighborhoods have also been running out of water as hot temperatures, low rainfall and poor infrastructure have converged to create a crisis across the sprawling metropolis.

Where is the plain text option since it doesn’t seem to show up for me?

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1796132632549339572

When I do the same thing it comes out as a link. https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1796132632549339572

32° this morning up in Saranac Lake. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KSLK

Yeah, I haven’t been able to get it to work. But I see that other posters have found a way since there are embedded posts in the last few days showing up in the various threads.