bluewave

The actual SSTs late this fall into winter may continue to be near +30C in spots along the West Coast of Southern Mexico and Central America. During a much weaker El Niño in 2023-2024 they were at +29C. Plus the magnitude of the warmth in Nino 3 and 4 are forecast to pull the forcing east. This happened in 1997-1998 with much cooler SSTs.

The stratospheric interactions are also related to the actual tropical forcing in addition to the state of the QBO. During the later portion of the winter in 1983, it was more of a full-basin SST configuration compared to 1997-1998. All the guidance has a warm pool extending up along the West Coast of Mexico. This along with the record warmth in 1-2 and 3 lead to the forecast for split forcing leading to a strong eastward lean. During many recent seasons warm pools off the equator had had areas of forcing west of Mexico and to the east of Hawaii.

RONI is a relative metric to SST outside the actual ENSO regions. But the BOM RONI for Nino 1 and 2 are higher close to the actual ONI readings. So this is why we maintain the ONI alongside the RONI. Plus the agencies in South America use both since the record streak of temperatures there are related to the actual ONI readings. Remember Nino 1+2 has been one of the few ocean regions of the planet which didn’t warm prior to the 2023-2024 super El Niño. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 23SEP2026 25.4 4.7 28.8 3.9 29.7 3.1 29.8 1.1

The east based nature of 1982-1983 backed off during the winter relative to 1997-1998. The stratospheric conditions were related to the different nature of the ENSO forcing between both those seasons. The Central Pacific warm pool has already shifted the farthest to the east it has ever been. This is only expected to increase in the coming months.

Plenty of missing data before 2000 at MPO including no observations at all from the record 93-94 winter in NEPA. The column on the right is total number of missing days for each year. Notice how this recent period since 2000 is the most complete. But since there is no contract snowfall observer at MPO, we have to look to the surrounding areas volunteer snowfall observations. The older observations prior to the airport being build in the early 1960s may have been at a different altitude than the airport due to where the coop observers in the area lived. So some of the warm records could have been from a lower altitude. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Missing Days right column Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 46.4 0 2024 48.2 0 2023 48.3 0 2022 46.4 0 2021 47.5 0 2020 47.8 0 2019 46.2 0 2018 46.4 0 2017 46.8 0 2016 47.4 0 2015 47.2 0 2014 45.1 0 2013 46.6 0 2012 49.3 0 2011 48.3 0 2010 48.0 0 2009 46.3 0 2008 45.7 0 2007 46.5 0 2006 48.1 0 2005 46.5 0 2004 45.9 0 2003 44.8 0 2002 47.2 0 2001 46.2 0 2000 45.0 0 1999 46.9 9 1998 48.5 33 1997 45.0 22 1996 44.9 36 1995 52.1 232 1994 M 365 1993 46.9 128 1992 43.9 39 1991 46.5 46 1990 47.2 96 1989 42.9 67 1988 43.6 31 1987 44.2 27 1986 44.2 9 1985 32.3 242 1984 46.1 0 1983 46.6 1 1982 45.3 0 1981 45.4 0 1980 44.9 0 1979 45.8 0 1978 44.0 0 1977 45.4 1 1976 44.7 0 1975 46.4 0 1974 45.8 0 1973 47.4 0 1972 44.6 0 1971 45.4 0 1970 44.9 0 1969 44.9 0 1968 45.1 0 1967 44.6 0 1966 44.3 0 1965 44.5 0 1964 45.9 0 1963 44.4 0 1962 44.4 0 1961 27.5 331 1960 46.9 137 1959 37.3 216 1958 44.2 4 1957 46.9 7 1956 45.6 3 1955 47.1 7 1954 47.0 4 1953 48.2 20 1952 47.1 0 1951 46.6 0 1950 45.8 1 1949 53.4 182 1948 47.1 92 1947 44.8 0 1946 46.5 0 1945 45.2 0 1944 45.1 0 1943 44.3 0 1942 45.6 0 1941 44.4 0 1940 41.7 0 1939 44.5 0 1938 46.0 0 1937 44.8 0 1936 44.6 0 1935 43.9 0 1934 43.3 18 1933 46.6 78 1932 42.5 0 1931 46.8 0 1930 44.6 56 1929 45.5 0 1928 48.5 61 1927 48.8 84 1926 51.3 204 1925 60.1 243 1924 43.2 151 1923 49.8 212 1922 51.4 181 1921 46.4 122 1920 43.2 0 1919 45.7 0 1918 45.3 0 1917 42.2 0 1916 44.0 0 1915 50.8 90 1914 44.6 122 1913 38.5 143 1912 43.9 0 1911 46.3 5 1910 45.0 3 1909 45.4 9 1908 44.7 11 1907 41.9 5 1906 45.3 1 1905 44.7 0 1904 41.9 1 1903 44.0 12 1902 44.7 4

The current forecasts have it more east based mid-season than 1982-1983. That one was more full basin than 1997-1998 during the winter. With it becoming most east based late spring into early summer 1983. Which was part of the reason that February 1983 was better than 1998.

Even though the CFS forecast was too weak with the current all-time daily +5 Nino 1+2, it has a 2nd peak late next spring into the early summer. These very long range forecasts aren’t as accurate. But even the Euro extended is showing something similar. 1982-1983 had a second Nino 1+2 peak in June 1983 which was stronger than the one from the fall. But this fall is so much stronger than 1982 that the models have a lower peak late next spring. The 1983-1984 La Niña was significantly weaker than 1998-1999 since it got off to such a late start with a much weaker cold pool. We’ll get a new update on October 5th to see if it has the same forecast idea from the August 5th extension. The Euro was much closer to the current +5 than the CFS.

Sandy was obviously the most extreme since it was such a strong system which occurred at the end of October in 2012. Henri was another much weaker system to come in from the east but was further north than this event. Henri lead to record flash flooding in August 2021. So these much stronger blocks to our north make these type of tracks possible. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/693bb9ddab5b4fb3a4aa5b79e5435b9f

Really unusual track for September. Most early season coastal storms or tropical systems track N to NE up or just off the coast. Can’t remember a September system coming in from the east into NJ before. Goes to show how strong the 500 mb ridging pattern has been associated with the record 600dm ridge a few weeks back and strong ridging since March.

March through September has been a pretty warm stretch for your area also. Only May was slightly cooler in your area. It was the 5th warmest March 1st through September 26th there since the new airport site opened in late 1999. So it makes it harder to compare to the older days before 2000 with so many data gaps. Station Thread for Mount Pocono Area, PANamePeriod in Thread1Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport10/01/1999 to 12/31/20252Tonyhanna Pocono Mountain Airport12/01/1961 to 09/30/19993Mt. Pocono09/12/1901 to 11/30/1961 Time Series Summary for POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, PA Warmest March 1st through September 26th since 2000 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-09-26 59.4 0 2 2012-09-26 59.1 0 3 2011-09-26 57.8 0 4 2024-09-26 57.7 0 5 2026-09-26 57.5 0 6 2025-09-26 57.4 0 7 2016-09-26 57.2 0 8 2021-09-26 56.9 0 - 2002-09-26 56.9 0 10 2022-09-26 56.8 0 - 2015-09-26 56.8 0 Mar…+5.5 Apr….+3.8 May….-0.4 Jun….+1.5 Jul…..+0.9 Aug…+0.7 Sep…..+1.7 On September 29, 1999, a major weather observation shift occurred in the Pocono Mountains when the Pocono Mountains Municipal Airport (KMPO) in Mount Pocono officially began automated reporting. [1] This marked the transition of the region's primary Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reporting site to a modern, standardized system. Prior to late 1999, data was predominantly recorded via manual, local cooperative observers or different measurement techniques, which occasionally led to minor visual bias reporting errors on scaling instruments. [1, 2] Impact of the 1999 Shift Standardized Automation: The introduction of the KMPO automated station allowed the National Weather Service to stream consistent, real-time meteorological observations. Climate Baseline: This shift established the digital baseline used to create the region's ongoing historical record and formal climate summaries. [1, 2, 3]

I think that’s why the long range models continue the WWBs and the extreme east based nature of this event right into next June.

The JMA summer El Niño composites are cooler for France than the NOAA charts.

Not really when you consider the strongest El summer composite of 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972 was cool in France which experienced the historic heat and drought this summer.

This was the reverse of the typical El Niño summer in Europe since the warmest anomalies were over Western Europe instead of Eastern Europe and Scandinavia.

Yeah, this was the strongest east based forcing summer pattern on record. So the IO and Maritime Continent had more sinking air than 1997 and 2015. But since the ridging was so strong leading to warmer SSTs from Japan to south of the Aleutians, we got the more Niña-like summer -PDO pattern. This enhanced mid-latitude ridging extended across the CONUS to Europe going against the previous cooler summers during developing El Niño summers.

This may be the first time so early in the season that a low during and El Niño year backed all the way into the Jersey Shore from the east. The perfect storm back in October 1991 looped offshore but didn’t make it all the way back to the coast. The January 1992 storm backed in off the ocean into the Delmarva. But the Christmas 1994 subtropical low did make it all the way back to the coast from the east. These patterns are mostly a result of very strong 500 mb ridging north of the Great Lakes and into the Canadian Maritimes preventing the storms from escaping to the east of Cape Cod like we usually see with coastal low tracks. This month the record ridge over the south was able to build north of the Great Lakes resulting in the capture of the east coast storm. Now the recurving typhoons are giving us a strong +WPO +EPO pattern in early October which we typically see during La Niña patterns this time of year. But this is only a snapshot of early October and could shift again mid to late month.

It’s just really wild to see a nearly +29°C warm pool in Nino 3 region this time of year. This is supposed to be the coolest part of the year for that SST region. SSTs this high have only been reached a few times but during the late winter into spring when the annual SSTs peak there.

Continuing to add to the record east based nature of this event with the first ever daily Nino 3 anomaly crossing the historic +4 mark.

Impressive tidal piling now on the GSB as the high tide from earlier today is having trouble draining out. I used to live not far from the tide gauge in Lindenhurst located close to Chateau La Mer. While the model did pretty well with this high tide this morning, it missed how much higher the water level is now than the forecast.

Getting some breaks of sun here between the bands. Great looking warm seclusion underway. Even some clearing near the center as we sometimes see with these.

At least MPO was able to drop below 40° this September. While still the 4th warmest monthly minimum for September, it was a little cooler than the last few years. JFK finished 2nd warmest on their minimum for September so far. Plenty of onshore flow this month keeping the mimimums up. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep Top 5 warmest minimum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 44 0 2 2025 41 0 - 2024 41 0 - 2023 41 0 - 1933 41 0 3 2018 40 0 - 2011 40 0 - 2002 40 0 4 2026 39 5 - 2022 39 0 - 2021 39 0 - 2012 39 0 - 1952 39 0 5 2010 38 0 - 2009 38 0 - 2004 38 0 - 2003 38 0 - 1954 38 0 - 1945 38 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Top 5 warmest monthly minimum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 56 0 - 2015 56 0 2 2026 54 5 - 2021 54 0 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1994 54 0 - 1968 54 0 3 2010 53 0 - 1987 53 0 - 1982 53 0 - 1960 53 0 4 2025 52 0 - 2012 52 0 - 2008 52 0 - 2003 52 0 5 2023 51 0 - 2016 51 0 - 2014 51 0 - 2004 51 0 - 1999 51 0 - 1971 51 0 - 1952 51 0

Impressive subtropical or hybrid characteristics with that one and also during an El Niño year.

Gorgeous sunset this evening near the CT Shoreline.

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.