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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    You have to realize that this forum goes well beyond IMBY type posts. In order to understand the local IMBY weather patterns, you have to see the bigger picture. One of the key reasons our area wasn’t able to experience a repeat of 1995-1996 this past winter was the overpowering nature of the ridges and warmth to our West. So the cold and upper trough wasn’t strong enough to reproduce the historic outcome of 1995-1996. That warmth came east in March preventing the heavy March and April 1996 snows from repeating. Our weather patterns have greatly shifted warmer since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. So the areas where the strongest 500mb ridges have set up produced these +10 extremes which weren’t forecast ahead of time. There has never been an 11 year period since 1895 with 17 months this extreme. You can find a scattering of isolated cases back over time. Plus we are doing it with the warmest 30 year climate normals in record making it even more impressive.
  2. bluewave
    The actual tornado was in Brooklyn. But since the rotation remained so strong on radar into SW Nassau, the NWS maintained the tornado warmings out of an abundance of caution. I was glad there was no tornado when it got to Long Beach. But it was really cool to see the swirl in the clouds directly overhead when the weakened supercell moved over my area. September 1998 was the strongest tornado near the South Shore in my time living there. The Labor Day Derecho caused the sky to go dark between 2-3 in the afternoon. Then I had my only .75 hail and severe gusts from a single storm on the South Shore. The actual tornado was in Lynbrook and the damage path was clearly visible near the neighborhood close to Sunrise Highway.
  3. bluewave
    It also goes beyond what phase the ENSO is in. But the warmest actual departure was +17.5 at FAR in the Feb 2024 super El Niño. This past winter was a weak La Niña with each month from December to March producing a +10 at some stations in the CONUS. No seasonal model forecast this. So we have a total of 17 months since the 2015-2016 super El Niño increased the baseline temperatures with +10 departures at some CONUS stations. None of the seasonal models forecast these either. Prior to 2015-2016 there were only a few +10 or greater months across the CONUS. These were March 2012 and January 2006. The list below includes the 17 months and the station close to warmest departures during each month. So there were numerous other stations over the+10 level during these months. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  4. bluewave
    +10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF. But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge. The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. +10 months since 1997-1998 Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East Dec 2015 Much of East Feb 2016 Upper Plains Mar 2016 Upper Midwest Dec 2023 Upper Midwest Feb 2024 Upper Midwest
  5. bluewave
    I remember that morning really well. It was one of the biggest weather events from 2006 to 2008. The only time a rotating wall cloud came right over my location in Long Beach. So NWS issued a tornado warning for my area due to how strong the rotation was on radar. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 650 AM EDT WED AUG 8 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... EASTERN KINGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 715 AM EDT... * AT 644 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CANARSIE... OR ABOUT NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... JAMAICA BY 700 AM... KENNEDY AIRPORT BY 705 AM... CEDARHURST BY 710 AM... WOODMERE...VALLEY STREAM...LYNBROOK AND ATLANTIC BEACH BY 715 AM. WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
  6. bluewave
    Yeah, we got the record heat back in early July. This time it’s the high dew points making headlines. Straight from the tropics.
  7. bluewave
    Looks like the heat and humidity will begin to ease up next week.
  8. bluewave
    The list is different for each station due to local dew point variations. The record for Newark was set in 1995. While the JFK record was back in 2016.
  9. bluewave
    NYC just had their 2nd highest dew point of all-time at 79°. Probably some enhancement from being so close to the trees. As other stations weren’t quite as high.
  10. bluewave
    We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future. https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO2 levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO2 levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says. https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian. “The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”
  11. bluewave
    Matching all the summers since 2012 the extent falls significantly behind 2012 during the 1st week of August. Much lower pressures this summer than even the 2013-2025 lower means resulted in the Jaxa extent falling into 12th place behind 2012. Plus we didn’t get the early season preconditioning. But since most of the older MYI has melted over the years, the volume is still very low. Very impressive contrast between the best recent extent in a while closer to the Pacific vs the record low extent on the Atlantic side.
  12. bluewave
    23 out of the last 26 months in NJ takes time to resolve. https://www.northjersey.com/story/weather/2026/07/30/nj-drought-warning-remains-after-severe-july-storms-heres-why/91091896007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z115227p116850n00----l003450c00----e1117xxv115227&gca-ft=71&gca-ds=sophi
  13. bluewave
    Northern areas closer to the heaviest rains around SW CT like BDR this summer have moved out of drought conditions. But the drought continues further south. Though there was also some slow improvement in NJ also. THE BRIDGEPORT CT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 5 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 82 202 PM 97 2005 83 -1 83 MINIMUM 64 458 AM 55 1951 68 -4 68 AVERAGE 73 76 -3 76 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.56 2017 0.14 -0.14 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.99 0.67 0.32 0.08 SINCE JUN 1 15.84 7.76 8.08 2.34 SINCE JAN 1 30.11 25.89 4.22 16.94
  14. bluewave
    The Florida dew points have arrived with values around 80° in SNJ.
  15. bluewave
    We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now. The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme.
  16. bluewave
    We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs? This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998. Just add the accumulated heat in the WPAC to the mix and we get an historic event like this one.
  17. bluewave
    It does look like this El Niño is starting to blend into the pattern. But the trough which is generally located to the ENE of Japan is displaced further south due the ridge and record warm pool that has become a regular feature there. So at least a few areas will match the composite next week especially around Alaska and Western Canada which is better than what we have seen so far.
  18. bluewave
    2020 was a really wild swing for the Arctic. We had the very strong polar vortex during the winter and a late season snow in early May. Then the warmest Arctic summer since 2012 with the Arctic sea ice almost as low. December had a 40” snowstorm in BGM followed by a record rainstorm and warm up on Christmas.
  19. bluewave
    The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes. There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter. It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10. We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then.
  20. bluewave
    2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.
  21. bluewave
    That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.
  22. bluewave
    I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations. Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014. So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters. But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations.
  23. bluewave
    The variability could also be filtered through the tendency for stronger subtropical to mid-latitude ridging and weaker troughs than we had in 1997-1998.
  24. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the dew points have been going up over the years here. Much more like what the Delmarva used to get 20-30 years ago and earlier. I was mostly commenting on the better rainfall this summer up here. Last summer was the 5th driest on record in my new area. So everything was brown. Much greener looking this summer. Are you still near the Poconos? Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Top 10 Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 5 6 1957 5.26 0 7 2016 5.28 0 8 1949 5.83 0 9 1965 5.93 0 10 2014 6.23 2
  25. bluewave
    I see what you are saying since this a much stronger more east based event than 2023-2024. So if any event can have Nino dominant forcing, then this one would be it. But we could avoid the IO and MC forcing we had in 2023-2024 and still reach a very warm outcome. 1997-1998 had a much deeper trough in the Southeast than 2023-2024 with more typical Nino dominant forcing. But the portions of the Southeast were warmer in 1997-1998 than in 2023-2024.
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