bluewave

Looks like August is currently tracking near the higher end of the range close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast from the 1st. https://celsius.earth/predict Aug 2026 MEDIAN 1.50 90% RANGE 1.34-1.66 SEAS5 DIRECT 1.66

Maybe the Walker circulation is finally beginning to weaken. The strengthening in recent decades went against model forecasts. Probably due to an incomplete understanding of how it works. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL105332 The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has strengthened over the past decades despite ongoing global warming, and the cause has been a puzzle. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50156-9 Our finding of a reversal in ENSO evolution from an initial increase to a subdued or collapsed amplitude toward 2300 highlights a strong nonlinear response of ENSO to persistent greenhouse warming. Under transient greenhouse warming, the fast warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, though initially contributing to an increase in ENSO variability, sows the seeds of a subsequent ENSO decrease by reducing the potential intensity and shrinking the climatological non-convective area of the equatorial Pacific. Establishing atmospheric convection in the reduced non-convective area induces small convective and wind anomalies that feed into the Bjerknes feedback. The associated curtailing effect eventually leads to the ENSO reduction. Although ENSO from a reduction to an eventual collapse is seen in some models, the likelihood in other models requires experiments integrated beyond the 23rd century, but such an evolution represents no good news, because it means that the oscillatory nature of ENSO impacts would be replaced by a quasi-permanent condition that is similar to an El Niño in many respects, therefore with a cumulative impact on affected regions.

This season is more conformation that the a long term regime shift occurred back in 2007. Thickness dramatically fell as the older sea ice melted. A June and July pattern like this season with deep low pressure north of Alaska before 2005-2007 would have resulted in a September minimum in the 6 to 8 million sq km range. But since the thickness was so low where the big Pacific side melt recently occurred, the area couldn’t hold the extent gains like it would have back in the colder climate era with thick multiyear ice more resistant to higher pressure and warmer recent conditions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-x Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties1. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing2. Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean The relationship between sea ice residence time in the Arctic Ocean and ice thickness distribution highlights the importance of coupled ocean–sea ice processes in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors of the Arctic (areas A and B in Fig. 3b). Several interrelated factors have become more prominent in the late twentieth century and have contributed to preconditioning the ocean–sea ice system before the stepwise changes in the ice formation areas: Arctic-wide rise of surface air temperature35, thinning of sea ice36, decrease of sea ice albedo37 concurrent with a reduction of multi-year sea ice38, increase of ocean heat flux through the Bering Strait39 and increase of the upper ocean heat content40. September sea ice concentration in the Siberian sector dropped below 40% in 2005 and the dramatic Arctic summer sea ice extent minimum occurred in 2007 (ref. 41). This series of events initiated intensive and widespread ice–albedo feedback in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors in the summer42,43, which resulted in a perennial increase of ocean heat content in areas of ice formation (Extended Data Fig. 1). After 2007, suppression of winter ice growth due to the accumulated ocean heat became conspicuous44 and the resultant thinner ice pack became more vulnerable to summer melt in the following year. Prolongation of the summer melt season promoted further ice–albedo feedback45 and has increased oceanic heat absorption in the summer7. Thus, summer ice extent and thickness in areas of ice formation has not recovered to the state before 2007 (Fig. 4c). In addition, continuing weakening of the cold halocline in the Siberian sector also influenced the upper ocean heat content46 and possibly slowed down ice growth offshore of the Laptev Sea in recent years17. Our analysis demonstrates the long-lasting impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time, suggesting an irreversible response of Arctic sea ice thickness connected to an increase of ocean heat content in areas of ice formation. The large reduction of summer ice extent in the Alaskan and Siberian sectors in 2005 and 2007 triggered intensive ice–albedo feedback42,45 and initiated the perennial increase of ocean heat content in these areas44. This resulted in the stepwise reduction of residence time of sea ice in the Siberian sector of the Arctic, and hence a nonlinear response of the system. Before the shift, sea ice formed in and offshore of the Siberian shelves overwintered (spent about 15 months) in this area before entering the TPD (Extended Data Fig. 2), during which the ice thickened and increased its deformed fraction. After the shift, ice stayed in this area only about 6 months on average (Extended Data Fig. 2), resulting in recruitment of newly formed younger ice into the TPD and more sea ice formation during TPD transit to the Fram Strait26. The younger ice is thin, weakly linked and features ridges with more shallow keels; hence, it is more prone to wind forcing pushing the ice towards the Atlantic sector of the Arctic28,47. This process accelerated the TPD from 2007 onwards (Fig. 4d), while enhanced wind forcing after 2007 may also have contributed to the acceleration of the TPD (Extended Data Fig. 7). Because of the shorter residence time, the part of the ice that has thermodynamically grown is thinner17 (reduction of modal thickness in Fig. 1b) and the relative amount of the deformed fraction of ice has decreased (Figs. 1band 2). Impacts of this regime shift in Arctic sea ice on the pan-Arctic environment are extensive and require further investigation. Thinner and less deformed sea ice causes reduced momentum exchange between ice and ocean, contributing to reduced mixing in the upper ocean underneath areas that are fully covered with ice. This may affect entrainment of heat and nutrients from subsurface to surface ocean with a potential consequence on the biogeochemical cycles involving higher trophic levels. By contrast, however, sea ice retreat in marginal ice zones and continuing weakening of the cold halocline in the Atlantic sector allows for more turbulent mixing and winter convection in the upper ocean46. These counteracting effects can influence the regional contrasts of the ocean environment between fully ice-covered areas and marginal ice zones in the Arctic. In addition, habitat conditions of younger, level sea ice are different from those in older multi-year ice and might affect the sympagic (ice-associated) communities and their diversity48,49. Ridged sea ice supports higher biomass48 and represents safe havens for organisms to hide from predators50. The amount of ridges and deformed ice has also consequences for human activity. Thinner, more level ice is less challenging for ship navigation than in thicker, deformed ice and, along with less ice/shorter ice seasons in general, may allow for an increase in Arctic maritime traffic. Finally, interdisciplinary studies in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic and downstream of the Fram Strait outflow are needed to shed light on the consequences of the described sea ice regime shift and its impacts on physical and biogeochemical processes. Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 3d It's time! Join me in tracking this year's #Arctic sea ice minimum! A new record is unlikely again this year. Sea ice melt substantially slows every September as solar energy decreases and temperatures drop in the far north. Follow along with the data at zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-i... ALT

HREF has a widespread 1.5 to 2.5 potential. Localized 3-5 possible where the best training sets up. So a continuation of the heaviest summer rains coming after we get the 100° heat early in the season. Like our local version of a monsoon pattern.

Starting to see +11 subsurface anomalies now.

Extent very close to last year at this time.

This was the first time that such a record WPAC warm pool was able to get pushed this far east.

Lake Harmony just got a snowfall observer starting with the 2020-2021 season. You guys do pretty well there. The elevation really helps out. Looks like 1995-1996 was just ahead of 1993-1994 for the top snowfall spot. But there wasn’t a Lake Harmony observer back then. Data for October 1, 2020 through April 30, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 77.4 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 30, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 41.0 Data for October 1, 2022 through April 30, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 48.5 Data for October 1, 2023 through April 30, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 48.7 Data for October 1, 2024 through April 30, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 48.2 Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.4 Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HOLLISTERVILLE COOP 135.4 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 125.5 LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 117.8 PAUPACK 1 WSW COOP 117.1 HONESDALE 4 NW COOP 104.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98.3 Data for October 1, 1993 through April 30, 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HOLLISTERVILLE COOP 132.1 LONG POND POCONO LAKE COOP 115.8 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 106.3 SHICKSHINNY 3 N COOP 92.9 HONESDALE 4 NW COOP 92.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 90.4

Really impressive how much stronger the record WWBs were in June and July 2026 than 1997.

Temperature pattern heading into late August looks close to average.

This event is really in a class all by itself. We are currently well ahead of our last east based super El Niño back in the summer of 1997. Large area of +10 subsurface now when only at +7 in 1997.

The highest temperatures during 1977 heatwave were mostly focused in Central Park when the thermometer was still out in the open and not under the trees like today. Outside of that 9 day run in mid-July, it was a cool summer by recent standards. There was a strong seabreeze that week so the South Shore spots like JFK had much cooler highs than Central Park. We are coming up on the 40th anniversary of the last August freeze at MPO. Along with the last August 50° low in NYC. Average High Temperature Data for July 13, 1977 through July 21, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 97.1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 97.1 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 96.9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 95.8 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 95.8 NY SCARSDALE COOP 95.4 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95.3 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 95.1 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 95.0 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 94.9 NJ CRANFORD COOP 94.8 NY WEST POINT COOP 94.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 93.9 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 93.7 CT DANBURY COOP 92.9 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 92.9 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 92.8 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 92.8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 92.8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 92.7 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 92.4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 92.3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 92.3 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 92.2 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 92.1 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 92.1 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 91.9 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 91.8 NY SUFFERN COOP 91.7 CT GROTON COOP 91.4 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 91.3 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 91.3 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 90.8 NY MINEOLA COOP 90.8 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 90.8 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 90.7 NY CARMEL COOP 90.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 89.8 CT WESTBROOK COOP 89.7 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 89.6 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 89.3 Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Aug Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1986 31 0 2 1965 32 0 - 1907 32 0 3 1987 33 4 - 1941 33 0 - 1940 33 0 4 1982 34 0 - 1976 34 0 - 1942 34 0 - 1923 34 0 - 1910 34 0 - 1908 34 0 - 1904 34 0 5 1979 35 0 - 1921 35 0 - 1916 35 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1986 50 0 - 1982 50 0 - 1976 50 0 - 1965 50 0 - 1885 50 0

Overall extent tracking similar to last year as the Pacific sector comes back closer to average after a slow start to the melt season. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Ongoing sea ice melt resulted in a big increase in low concentration ice and open water in the seas north and northwest of Alaska during the second week of August. Ice loss was especially dramatic in the Chukchi Sea in NSIDC data. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 4:11 PM · Aug 16, 2026

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow The first 14 days of August have blasted through the previous record for the Aug 1-14 period globally.

The summer of 1996 was the last time that JFK had over 50 days staying under 80° for a high temperature. Most Days With High Temperature Under 80°Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 66 0 2 1996 55 0 3 1956 54 0 4 1950 52 0 5 1979 51 0 - 1954 51 0 - 1951 51 0 6 1992 50 0 7 1982 49 0 8 2000 48 0 9 1989 47 0 - 1977 47 0 - 1975 47 0 - 1953 47 0 10 1958 46 0 - 1957 46 0 Coolest Summer Average High Temperature Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 77.2 0 2 1951 77.9 0 3 1996 78.2 0 - 1956 78.2 0 4 1992 78.4 0 5 1982 78.6 0 6 1979 78.7 0 - 1950 78.7 0 7 2000 78.8 0 8 1958 78.9 0 9 1976 79.1 0 10 2004 79.2 0 11 1957 79.3 0 - 1954 79.3 0 12 2009 79.4 0 - 1977 79.4 0 13 1975 79.5 0 14 1985 79.6 0 15 1965 79.7 0

Yeah, we aren’t going to know the exact location of the warmest winter departures until each month gets underway. +10 months have been fairly common during super El Niño events since 1997-1998. Areas adjacent to the +10s also had very high temperature departures. Regions with the most overlapping high departures across multiple months finished the warmest for DJF. But since all seasonal models default to general climatology due to long range forecast uncertainty, none of the months were forecast ahead of time to my knowledge. The most common locations have been from the Upper Plains and Midwest across to the East. December 2015 was the most extreme for the aerial coverage and magnitude of the 10+ area. As early as November 22, 2015, the EPS weeklies were showing just moderately above average temperatures across the Northern Tier for December. So the long range models gave no indication of what occurred. +10 months super El Niño months since 1997-1998 Dec 1997 Upper Plains to Upper Midwest Jan 1998 Upper Plains to East Feb 1998 Upper Plains to East Dec 2015 Much of East Feb 2016 Upper Plains Mar 2016 Upper Midwest Dec 2023 Upper Midwest Feb 2024 Upper Midwest

The warmer spots away from the seabreeze in our area have rivaled and exceeded the maximum heat from the 1980 to 2002 era since 2010. The warmest CONUS maximum temperature departures have split between the West Coast to Western Plains and the East. So the area in the middle hasn’t been as warm as that era. The other big difference between now and the 1980 to 2002 era is that we haven’t been getting the cooler summers between the warmest years. Notice that the cooler summers like 1982, 1985, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2004, and 2009 haven’t been occurring. So the coolest summer of the 2020s so far has been around 30 days reaching 90° at the warm spots instead of under 10 days like 1996. This is why it’s the first time the warm spots in NJ went 9 consecutive years without a break from 30+ days reaching 90° from 2018 to 2026. Notice how much warmer the only 3 relatively cooler summers have been since 2010 compared to 8 coolest summers from 1982 to 2009.

All the really big events share the warmth across the Northern tier states. But the exact location of the warmest departures from month to month and season to season varies from the Upper Plains into the Northeast. The record ridge with the 1877-1878 event parked just north of Minnesota. So the departures up in Canada may have been even higher than MSP. The big story in the East that winter was the lowest snowfall that we have records for at some stations during the 1800s. While it was cold enough to snow in general, the storm track got suppressed by the ridge in December so it was a dry month. In January and February the storm track in NYC was too warm for much snow and the big storms were mostly rain. So NYC finished only 8.1” that winter when the average from the 1840s into the 1870s was close to 40” in that much colder climate. So the actual variations within the larger theme this winter will emerge from month to month. At this point we know the strength of the event in the Pacific is the strongest that we have experienced in 150 years. There are currently +10 departures showing up beneath the surface. With the event already producing departures at the surface far ahead of anything that we have experienced in August. Record WWBs are continuing this week.

This is a stronger event than the 1877-1878 reanalysis. It has significantly more oceanic heat to work with. That event produced what is probably the highest consecutive three month DJF departures for a single CONUS long term weather station. So not a stretch to say this is the strongest El Niño event in a long time. MSP Dec 1877…..+14.5° Jan 1878…..+10.2° Feb 1878…..+15.8° https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/11/jcli-d-19-0650.1.xml The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with independent SOI index derived from sea level pressure measurements in Darwin and Tahiti (Trenberth 1984). This El Niño event in ERSSTv5 is also consistent with the precipitation and temperature proxy data derived from tree rings and coral reefs and from the great famine record in southeastern Asia and Africa (Kiladis and Diaz 1986; Allan et al. 1991; D’Arrigo et al. 2008; Garden 2008; Hao et al. 2010; Räsänen et al. 2016; Singh et al. 2018; Lough et al. 2018). For example, Singh et al. (2018) used the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in Asia and demonstrated a record-breaking El Niño during 1877/78. D’Arrigo et al. (2008) used the PDSI in Australia and Lough et al. (2018) used the degree heating month index (DHMI) derived from coral reef in the tropical oceans; both showed a strong El Niño event during 1877/78. The strong 1877/78 El Niño in ERSSTv5 is consistent with that in HadSST1 (Fig. 2c; dotted blue) (Rayner et al. 2003). The Niño-3 index is approximately 0.5°C lower in HadISST1 than in ERSSTv5 from January 1877 to February 1878, which is in the range of the uncertainty of ERSSTv5 as indicated in Fig. 5d and Table 1. The temporal correlation between ERSSTv5 and HadISST1 Niño-3 indices between January 1877 and January 1879 is high (approximately 0.94). The consistency between the 1997/98 El Niño events in ERSSTv5 and HadSST1 is very good with strong correlations (0.99) between January 1997 and January 1999 (Fig. 2f). In conclusion, the strength (2.8°–3.5°C) and uncertainty (0.5°C) of the 1877/78 El Niño event are quantified by evaluating the selection of certain parameters in the ERSSTv5 ensemble. The strength of the 1877/78 El Niño appears approximately equal to those during 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16.

That’s the acceleration of the water cycle at work. So we see more swings between drought and flooding. I agree that flooding is more damaging for regions like ours and the Midwest. But the West is a different story. There they get extreme droughts leading to wildfires that are frequently more dangerous than rainfall flooding is in our area and the Midwest. Plus the smoke from the fires creates air pollution for the entire CONUS. They can also get serious floods from time to time especially in the burn scar areas.

It’s also a challenge when you aren’t speaking with someone in person. Many not written cues can get lost on these forums. I am sure if we all met in person things would be different. Also goes to how many interactions these days occur online vs in person prior to social media and the internet. So we don’t have the benefit of nonverbal cues which are common in actual life. Even with all of issues that pop up from time to on these forums, the benefits outweigh any negatives. Weather models and past statistics for various stations used to be very limited before the age of the internet. I can remember the old Alden Difax machines that was the only way to get weather models. Plus there were no freely available databases containing past reanalysis products with 500 mb patterns and temperatures for any given month or period.

I don’t take any of this personally. It’s more comical than anything else. The squabbles in these threads are more like Napoleon Vs Uncle Rico than anything really serious.

UHI has been a factor in NYC since the 1890s. It gradually spread out into the other boroughs and nearby NJ from the 1930s to 1950s. So elevated minimums are nothing new in the heat island relative to the outlying areas. But all areas have seen increasing minimum and maximum temperatures. The area on the average has seen many more 90° days since 2010 than at any other era. This is the first time the state of NJ away from the sea breeze has seen 9 consecutive years with over 30 days reaching 90°. In past we would get fewer summers with so many 90° days. Back then cooler summers were in the mix with even the urban stations staying under 10 or 15 days every several years. We have to go back to 1996 for even most warm spots to have under 10 days reaching 90°. You are definitely in a much cooler spot than much of the forum.

There is a difference between lighthearted humor and passive-aggressive behavior. Most people want to read about the strongest El Niño on record rather than have to wade through these types of nonsense or banter posts. While I take it all in stride, it will cause others to just leave the forum.

Your impulse seems to be focusing more on the patterns that you would like to see rather than the patterns that we have been getting.