bluewave

We may not start to get a better idea about things until the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude 500 mb pattern actually couples with the El Niño. This continues to be a strong -PDO 500 mb pattern which has translated into the drop in the SST PDO and the near record ridge north of Hawaii. Have never seen the Southern Hemisphere so fully coupled with the El Niño standing wave while the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes are so out of sync. I will compare the VP charts for July in early August against previous super events when JMA posts them. My only guess is that the standing wave appears to be centered more to the south of the equator than usual. But not really sure since we haven’t seen this disparity with the summers of 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. Perhaps the pattern will slowly begin to shift in the Northern Hemisphere to more of a standard Nino look in the next few months.

2009 was one of my favorite summers back in Long Beach. Comfortable temperatures and smaller beach crowds. Really the last time that we had a cool June and July by long term climate standards. The 19th coolest June and July average temperature at Newark with records now back to the 1840s was very impressive. The actual coolest average temperature since 1940. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest June 1st to July 31st Periods. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1859-07-31 67.8 0 2 1862-07-31 68.2 0 3 1903-07-31 68.3 0 4 1857-07-31 68.8 0 5 1867-07-31 69.1 0 - 1863-07-31 69.1 0 6 1924-07-31 69.3 32 7 1860-07-31 69.5 0 8 1861-07-31 69.6 0 9 1902-07-31 70.1 0 - 1871-07-31 70.1 0 - 1864-07-31 70.1 0 10 1916-07-31 70.2 0 11 1918-07-31 70.5 0 - 1907-07-31 70.5 0 - 1869-07-31 70.5 0 12 1904-07-31 70.7 0 - 1851-07-31 70.7 0 13 1893-07-31 71.0 0 - 1875-07-31 71.0 0 - 1855-07-31 71.0 0 14 1868-07-31 71.1 0 15 1881-07-31 71.2 0 16 1897-07-31 71.3 0 17 1915-07-31 71.4 0 - 1914-07-31 71.4 0 18 1940-07-31 71.5 0 - 1884-07-31 71.5 0 - 1873-07-31 71.5 0 19 2009-07-31 71.6 0 - 1874-07-31 71.6 0

Given the much larger WPAC pool than 1997-1998, this makes sense. Many decades of steady ocean warming since then. So it also would not be a surprise if the stronger WPAC warm pool resulted in less ENSO cooling than 1998-1999 to 2000-2001. We could even see this event linger longer into 2027 due to how much ocean heat will be accumulating in the ENSO regions. It will be an important case study on how the tropical Pacific responds once the +30C warm pool gets pushed so far east of the Dateline which has never happened in our modern climate. It would be interesting to know why we couldn’t get WWBs this strong in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 to really tap the expanded WPAC warm pool until now?

Cutoff lows with training convection are a pretty good signal for more flash flooding. Parts of the area are already 10.00+ for July. So the wettest month here in over a year. If this keeps up next few months, then it could be a sign of the longer term drought since September 2024 is beginning to relax. We’ll see more gradual improvement when the drought monitor and soil moisture updates this week. Last week the CT Shoreline experienced extreme rainfall rates. Many spots recorded more than 3.00 inches in one hour and 1.00 inch + in only 15 minutes.This lead to the rapid runoff from the land to the sea carving out 5-foot canyons through the beach. Locals have never seen this before in the area. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 11.98 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 11.66 CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 11.60 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.42 CT DANBURY COOP 10.70 NY PEEKSKILL 2.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.59 CT NEWTOWN 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 10.54 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.35 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.20 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.11

NYC can have a similar temperature as Newark on days with S to NE cooler onshore flow. Newark gets a cooling breeze off the bay and Central Park doesn’t since it’s not right on the water like the airport at Newark is. A few days ago with more offshore flow Newark was warmer again since they didn’t have a cooling breeze. The days when the trees have a more significant cooling influence relative to the airports are more offshore flow days with SW to NW flow at Newark. Also cloudy days since this removes the cooling influence of the trees when it’s not sunny. Onshore flow similar temperatures CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 26 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 85 310 PM 99 1940 87 -2 85 1989 2005 MINIMUM 65 526 AM 57 1953 70 -5 76 AVERAGE 75 78 -3 81 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 2.72 1985 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 4.31 3.84 0.47 3.21 SINCE JUN 1 6.83 8.18 -1.35 5.50 SINCE JAN 1 20.65 26.55 -5.90 20.56 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 T 2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 14 -14 10 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 10 13 -3 16 MONTH TO DATE 359 343 16 437 SINCE JUN 1 674 588 86 767 SINCE JAN 1 829 672 157 849 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 10 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (190) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 15 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SE (150) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.5 822 CDUS41 KOKX 270634 CLINYC CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 26 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 85 211 PM 98 1940 85 0 85 MINIMUM 64 536 AM 55 1920 70 -6 74 AVERAGE 75 78 -3 80 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 3.24 2000 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.69 3.78 -0.09 3.43 SINCE JUN 1 7.08 8.32 -1.24 5.89 SINCE JAN 1 21.51 27.49 -5.98 24.45 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 4 15 -11 16 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 10 13 -3 15 MONTH TO DATE 314 327 -13 368 SINCE JUN 1 576 553 23 640 SINCE JAN 1 714 634 80 697 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 9 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION NE (40) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 16 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION NE (50) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 1.6 Offshore flow Newark 5 degrees warmer with no cooling seabreeze CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 219 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 90 348 PM 108 2011 87 3 80 MINIMUM 72 1159 PM 56 1944 70 2 67 AVERAGE 81 78 3 74 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.78 2019 0.16 -0.16 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 4.31 3.21 1.10 2.70 SINCE JUN 1 6.83 7.55 -0.72 4.99 SINCE JAN 1 20.65 25.92 -5.27 20.05 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 0 14 -14 10 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING YESTERDAY 16 14 2 9 MONTH TO DATE 326 291 35 372 SINCE JUN 1 641 536 105 702 SINCE JAN 1 796 620 176 784 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 22 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (350) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 32 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (270) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.2 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 432 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 22 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 85 249 PM 104 2011 85 0 81 MINIMUM 72 1202 AM 58 1871 71 1 67 1890 AVERAGE 79 78 1 74 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.86 1880 0.15 -0.15 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 3.69 3.17 0.52 3.42 SINCE JUN 1 7.08 7.71 -0.63 5.88 SINCE JAN 1 21.51 26.88 -5.37 24.44 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUN 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SINCE JUL 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 0 0 0 0 SINCE JUN 1 4 15 -11 16 SINCE JUL 1 0 0 0 0 COOLING TODAY 14 13 1 9 MONTH TO DATE 281 275 6 308 SINCE JUN 1 543 501 42 580 SINCE JAN 1 681 582 99 637 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 14 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION W (270) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 24 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (260) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 7.2

The current -PNA is mostly a reflection of how strong the ridge is north of Hawaii is. That’s the really strong 500 mb -PDO we are getting in July. The SSTs are mostly a lagging indicator since the 500mb pattern drove the PDO decline last few months. There’s probably a background feedback between the SST and atmosphere which has kept the -PDO so negative during the 2020s. This summer PDO drop has been a common theme during the 2020s with a gradual rise to less negative or neutral by the winter. So our new 2020s seasonal cycle. We can’t really predict the PNA beyond the short term so too early to put out a precise winter PNA forecast. But just to say that the 2023-2024 super El Niño with a -PDO had a less positive winter PNA than 2015-2016 with a strong +PDO DJF 2023-2024…….PNA…..+0.58…..PDO…..-1.34 DJF 2015-2016……..PNA……+1.42…..PDO…..+1.07

Nice change for them following the warmest July 1st through 4th. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Warmest July 1st through 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 84.5 0 2 1966-07-04 82.1 0 3 2002-07-04 81.6 0 4 2018-07-04 81.3 0 - 1964-07-04 81.3 0 5 1955-07-04 80.4 0

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño. This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time. Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. July PNA during developing super El Niños 2023.. +1.15 2015…+0.76 1997….+0.56 1982…+0.97 1972….-0.76

More more comfortable temperatures here than areas to our west.

The -PDO 500 mb index has been more impressive than the SST index. Notice the near record high pressure north of Hawaii. This has displaced the Aleutian low into Alaska with the local cool there and warmth everywhere else in North America. This is a first during the month of July for such a strong El Niño. The Aleutian low is usually closer to East Asia with a developing super El Niño. The seasonal models as recently as around May 1st were going with this super El Niño composite especially on the Pacific side. So another case of seasonal models just defaulting to past El Niño climatology rather than seeing the actual pattern. The run around July 1st once the period was starting to do a little better. But still missed the magnitude of the pattern. July composite strongest El Ninos Verification July 1-20th with the 500 mb -PDO index one of the strongest on record for the period

Models hinting at a rainy cutoff low this week. Details as to where the heaviest convection focuses will have to wait. Since the timing of how soon the upper low cuts off and captures the surface low vary from model to model.

Data reporting issue that didn’t get removed yet. But they did get close to the all-time February low set in 2015. The cold records in the Southeast were the most noteworthy this February. On May 24, 2026, weather monitoring stations in Youngstown, Ohio, experienced a data reporting issue where a spurious (erroneous) low temperature spike was briefly logged. Actual weather records show that May 24, 2026, was actually a mild spring day, with temperatures hovering around a normal low of 54°F and reaching a pleasant high of 66°F. [1] Time Series Summary for Youngstown Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 -16 0 - 1934 -16 0 2 1979 -14 0 3 2026 -13 0 4 1963 -11 0 - 1961 -11 0 - 1951 -11 0 5 1973 -10 0

Don’t be surprised if the models like the Euro increase the El Niño regions SST forecasts again on August 5th once the effects of this near record WWB get incorporated into the new model run.

Yeah, this is a nice change following the record heat. The July normals have been increasing steadily across the area. So an average finish near 78.2° at a spot like Newark is still the 26th warmest July. The last time we finished in the top 20s for a cool July was 2009. So departures this month would be higher if the departures were fixed at period like 1961-1990 or even 1951-2000. Adjusting the departures warmer every 10 years really masks or normalizes the long term warming. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Warmest Average Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 2025 82.1 0 6 1994 81.9 0 7 2024 81.3 0 8 2013 80.9 0 9 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 10 2023 80.6 0 - 2019 80.6 0 11 1955 80.5 0 12 1988 80.4 0 13 2002 80.0 0 14 2016 79.9 0 15 1887 79.8 0 16 1983 79.6 0 - 1966 79.6 0 17 1995 79.5 0 - 1949 79.5 0 18 2026 79.4 8 - 2006 79.4 0 - 1987 79.4 0 19 1981 79.2 0 - 1952 79.2 0 20 2015 79.0 0 21 2021 78.8 0 - 1980 78.8 0 - 1878 78.8 0 22 2008 78.7 0 23 1973 78.6 0 24 1876 78.5 0 25 2005 78.3 0 - 1982 78.3 0 26 2018 78.2 91-20 Mean Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Coolest Average Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1859 70.3 0 2 1862 71.0 0 3 1867 71.1 0 4 1860 71.3 0 5 1871 71.6 0 6 1895 71.7 0 - 1861 71.7 0 7 1884 71.8 0 - 1857 71.8 0 8 1869 72.2 0 9 1902 72.5 0 - 1865 72.5 0 10 1864 72.6 0 11 1904 72.7 0 - 1888 72.7 0 12 1914 72.9 0 13 1923 73.0 0 - 1875 73.0 0 14 1956 73.1 0 - 1863 73.1 0 15 1853 73.3 0 16 1922 73.4 0 17 1858 73.5 0 18 1909 73.6 0 - 1893 73.6 0 - 1874 73.6 0 19 2000 73.7 0 - 1903 73.7 0 20 1996 73.8 0 - 1962 73.8 0 - 1933 73.8 0 - 1918 73.8 0 - 1899 73.8 0 21 1920 73.9 0 - 1915 73.9 0 22 2001 74.1 0 - 1945 74.1 0 23 1969 74.2 0 - 1967 74.2 0 - 1873 74.2 0 24 2009 74.3 0

The -PDO continues to exceed seasonal model forecasts.

This California Coast weather is much nicer than the top 5 warmest June 1st through July 15th that much of the Northeast just experienced. This was a first for such a strong El Niño. All our other developing super El Niños were much cooler. So a continuation of the very warm 2020s summer -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern even with such a strong El Niño. This was also the first time the area had 104° to 106° heat during such a strong developing El Niño at any point in the summer. Most other years with such high maximum temperatures were La Ninas. Developing super El Niño June 1 to July 15 average temperature EWR 2026….77.0° 2023….74.8° 2015…..73.8° 1997…..73.2° 1982….70.6° 1972….71.0° HPN 2026….72.6° 2023….70.4° 2015….69.4° 1997…..70.8° 1982….68.5° 1972….66.8° ISP 2026….72.8° 2023…70.8° 2015…70.3° 1997….70.3° 1982…66.7° 1972…66.7° Data for June 1, 2026 through July 24, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 Data for June 1, 2023 through August 31, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 96 NY WEST POINT COOP 95 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 95 Data for June 1, 2015 through August 31, 2015 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 98 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 96 Data for June 1, 1997 through August 31, 1997 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 100 Data for June 1, 1982 through August 31, 1982 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 102 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 101 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 100 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 100 Data for June 1, 1972 through August 31, 1972 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 98 NJ PATERSON COOP 97 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 97 NY WEST POINT COOP 97 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 96 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec All-time maximum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 108 0 2 2026 105 161 - 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 - 1918 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record. 1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026 Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates). 9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026

Still have a ways to go to reverse this long term drought. Some areas saw small improvement. But the heaviest downpours were more localized which is common with convection.

An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far? We’ll have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter. Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up.

The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS.

The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen.

Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 8mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 8mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 1

I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall. This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026. 2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall. This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Those winters featured cold storm tracks. Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s.

The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.