bluewave

Evolution of winters around 32° and colder in NYC since the 1970s showing the expansion of warmth to our west.

Flagstaff has seen one of the more impressive monthly maximum high temperature beats for the CONUS. They exceeded the previous March record high by 11°. If Newark had a similar March record high, then it would be 100°. I don’t think this extreme of a record would be possible here since we can’t rival the kind of heat generated with drought in the Desert SW. My guess is that our max potential here in March would probably be around 93°-94° in some future March heatwave when the primary ridge is centered in the East instead of the Desert SW. Time Series Summary for Flagstaff Area, AZ (ThreadEx) - Month of Mar Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 84 11 2 2007 73 0 - 1988 73 0 - 1966 73 0 3 2025 72 0 - 2015 72 0 - 2004 72 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2025 85 0 4 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 - 1921 84 0 - 1910 84 0

Looks like a 70° warm up on Sunday for the usual NJ warm spots away from the ocean influence followed by the typical backdoor influence that we usually see this time of year heading into early April.

Reversion to the March 2020s snowfall mean following all the great 2010s Marches. March Monthly 2020s Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March 2010s Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

Yeah, the record ridge covering the West into Central states completely overpowered the pattern with warm and dry for much of the country. So we have moved past the usual old school La Niña correlations. This is now the age of the super 500 mb ridge that is going to cancel your winter in the locations where it gets stuck stuck in place. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow A remarkable 42% of the Contiguous U.S. had record Dec-Feb 500 mb heights. 10:41 PM · Mar 8, 2026

The lake effect zones usually do pretty well unless there is a strong El Niño.

Yeah, back to our regularly scheduled programming following a rare 4 month hiatus.

One of the few spots that did well during 2001-2002. Top 10 Snowfall Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 319.8 0 2 1996-1997 272.2 0 3 2000-2001 268.0 0 4 2022-2023 265.1 0 5 2025-2026 262.7 198 6 2008-2009 246.0 0 7 1995-1996 235.9 1 8 1989-1990 234.9 0 9 1981-1982 233.8 1 10 2006-2007 230.5 0

Just goes to show how narrowly focused the cold was this winter into the East. While we had our first winter near 32° around NYC in 11 years, this was the 2nd or 3rd warmest winter overall for the CONUS depending on the dataset. So once the effects of the record early SSW in November wore off this month, the warmth from out West quickly came east. The shrinking geographic footprint of the cold is one of the reasons that this was our only winter this cold in the 2020s so far while we had 4 winters this cold back in the 2010s prior to the big warming shift with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

A small piece for Saturday into Sunday but the 80° warmth should stay to our south.

Yeah, the HRRR did a great job with this event.

This was the 9th warmest March 1st through the 16th average temperature with numerous top 20s during the 2020s including the warmest back in 2024. Warmest March 1st to 16th Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-03-16 50.6 0 2 1977-03-16 48.9 0 3 2016-03-16 48.6 0 4 2020-03-16 48.3 0 5 1973-03-16 47.8 0 - 1921-03-16 47.8 0 6 2012-03-16 47.5 0 7 2000-03-16 47.3 0 8 1946-03-16 47.1 0 9 2026-03-16 46.0 0 10 1878-03-16 45.9 0 11 2010-03-16 45.0 0 - 2002-03-16 45.0 0 - 1983-03-16 45.0 0 12 2004-03-16 44.9 0 13 1903-03-16 44.8 0 14 2025-03-16 44.7 0 - 1990-03-16 44.7 0 - 1871-03-16 44.7 0 15 1964-03-16 44.5 0 16 1985-03-16 44.3 0 17 1898-03-16 44.1 0 18 1945-03-16 43.9 0 19 2022-03-16 43.8 0 20 1974-03-16 43.6 0 - 1902-03-16 43.6

This closest analog in our area for out of season historic warmth and 500mb ridging was probably February 2018 with that record ridge and early 80° heat. But this heat will be more extended and of a greater magnitude over a larger region. Plus the location and coming a month later allows for much higher actual temperatures.

I mainly posted to show the continuing snow hole near State College. It’s difficult for the map generating program to get the grids perfect with such a large gradient involved with the snowfall. This map below has some added numerical percentages. But the resolution is always going to struggle unless you can create a more zoomed in map.

Our summer forecast will probably come down to how far east this ridge can expand since it has been stuck in place since November. This month we are getting dual ridges out West and in the East. Could be some very impressive summer warmth expanding across the CONUS if we get a similar linking up between the ridges like we have had this month. But the magnitude of the coming Western warmth will be higher than in the East even though several spots like NYC experienced their earliest 80° warmth on record.

The big Miller A storm track east of the APPS has gone dormant for 20 years now. So JB is in one of the worst snow holes around Central PA. State College requires that particular storm track to reach near to above average snowfall. Just like our area needs benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall. Miller A Cutters west of the APPS and weak Miller Bs that dryslot Central PA aren’t good for our area or Central PA. At least we finally got a solid benchmark season here after so many below average seasons since 2018-2019. But our issue has been the dominance of all or nothing seasons since 93-94 where we finish well above average or well below snowfall. The mid range 18-29 season which dominated from the 1960s to early 1990s has become a rarity. So our snowfall seasons either hit some nice home runs or we strike out. The risk in a warming climate is that the strikeouts start to become more common than the home runs. But it’s still nice to know that we can get a great bounce back year like this one from time to time.

It’s interesting how we got a much warmer and less snowy version of 2013-2014 and the 2014-2015 the last two winters. This is what I was getting at in my discussions over the last few years. The cold pool and polar vortex over North America was much smaller during the last few winters with a more expansive and stronger 500 mb ridge. So Boston couldn’t challenge their snowiest winter in 2014-2015 with the February 2015 cold and the Great Lakes couldn’t approach 2013-2014 record snow and cold. The last few winters were a warmer and less snowy reflection due to the big global temperature jump which occurred with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter. The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America. But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter. If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists of 3 multiyear periods since 1981. 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters

Yeah, I agree. It was significantly deeper than the Blizzard of 1888. Had March 1993 taken a benchmark track instead, then we would have had a 40”+ jackpot with 80-100 mph gusts somewhere in the OKX forecast zones and drifts approaching 6-10 feet high in spots. https://www.weather.gov/media/ilm/Overview_Kocin_Schumacher_Morales_Uccelini.pdf

That was the last time many locations near the coast had a 10”+ snowstorm after February with the exception of our local snow capital and nearby spots back in 2018. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ After February Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 18.2 1956-03-19 0 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 14.8 1958-03-21 0 13.9 1960-03-04 0 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 12.7 1993-03-14 0 - 12.7 1956-03-20 0 12.5 1960-03-03 0 12.1 1941-03-09 0 12.0 1941-03-08 0 - 12.0 1924-04-02 0 - 12.0 1924-04-01 0 - 12.0 1852-03-18 0 - 12.0 1852-03-17 0 11.9 1993-03-13 0 11.5 1896-03-16 0 11.0 1867-03-18 0 - 11.0 1867-03-17 0 10.5 1851-03-08 0 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After February Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 18.4 2018-03-22 0 17.0 1967-03-22 0 16.0 1982-04-07 0 - 16.0 1982-04-06 0 15.0 1967-03-23 0 14.9 2018-03-21 0 13.5 2009-03-02 0

Some of the strongest backdoor cold fronts on record in the Northeast during the spring have occurred following record warmth. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ma/east-boston/KBOS/date/2002-4-17 PM 93 °F 51 °F 24 % W 18 mph 23 mph 29.83 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 4:54 PM 93 °F 49 °F 22 % W 17 mph 26 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Partly Cloudy 5:54 PM 91 °F 49 °F 23 % W 14 mph 0 mph 29.82 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 6:32 PM 66 °F 50 °F 56 % NNE 26 mph 33 mph 29.87 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy / Windy 6:54 PM 59 °F 50 °F 72 % NNE 25 mph 35 mph 29.91 in 0.0 in Cloudy / Windy 7:54 PM 55 °F 49 °F 80 % ENE 7 mph 0 mph 29.95 in 0.0 in Mostly Cloudy 8:54 PM 55 °F 50 °F 83 % N 8 mph 0 mph 29.96 in 0.0 in Partly

We’ll see if the long range EPS is correct about the backdoor potential for later in the month as it has a return to some Greenland blocking.

Parts of Florida also experienced some snow following a record 80° day back in January. Climatological Data for Pensacola Area, FL (ThreadEx) - January 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-01 68 41 54.5 1.1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-02 71 51 61.0 7.7 4 0 0.03 0.0 0 2026-01-03 74 58 66.0 12.8 0 1 1.47 0.0 0 2026-01-04 65 51 58.0 4.8 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-05 65 50 57.5 4.4 7 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-06 76 60 68.0 15.0 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-07 77 64 70.5 17.5 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-08 70 62 66.0 13.1 0 1 T 0.0 0 2026-01-09 75 65 70.0 17.1 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-10 80 62 71.0 18.1 0 6 0.19 0.0 0 2026-01-11 62 43 52.5 -0.4 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-12 52 36 44.0 -8.8 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-13 58 31 44.5 -8.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-14 61 45 53.0 0.2 12 0 0.10 0.0 0 2026-01-15 50 32 41.0 -11.8 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-16 65 30 47.5 -5.4 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-01-17 59 44 51.5 -1.4 13 0 0.03 0.0 0 2026-01-18 49 32 40.5 -12.4 24 0 0.10 T RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 145 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PENSACOLA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS SET AT PENSACOLA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 79 DEGREES SET IN 1957.

It’s great that we got a one month relaxation of the Northern Stream from late January into late February. But now it’s back as strong as ever. This is the main reason that our significant snowfall chances have diminished after February.