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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    2020 was a really wild swing for the Arctic. We had the very strong polar vortex during the winter and a late season snow in early May. Then the warmest Arctic summer since 2012 with the Arctic sea ice almost as low. December had a 40” snowstorm in BGM followed by a record rainstorm and warm up on Christmas.
  2. bluewave
    The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes. There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter. It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10. We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then.
  3. bluewave
    2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.
  4. bluewave
    That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.
  5. bluewave
    I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations. Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014. So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters. But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations.
  6. bluewave
    The variability could also be filtered through the tendency for stronger subtropical to mid-latitude ridging and weaker troughs than we had in 1997-1998.
  7. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the dew points have been going up over the years here. Much more like what the Delmarva used to get 20-30 years ago and earlier. I was mostly commenting on the better rainfall this summer up here. Last summer was the 5th driest on record in my new area. So everything was brown. Much greener looking this summer. Are you still near the Poconos? Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Top 10 Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 5 6 1957 5.26 0 7 2016 5.28 0 8 1949 5.83 0 9 1965 5.93 0 10 2014 6.23 2
  8. bluewave
    I see what you are saying since this a much stronger more east based event than 2023-2024. So if any event can have Nino dominant forcing, then this one would be it. But we could avoid the IO and MC forcing we had in 2023-2024 and still reach a very warm outcome. 1997-1998 had a much deeper trough in the Southeast than 2023-2024 with more typical Nino dominant forcing. But the portions of the Southeast were warmer in 1997-1998 than in 2023-2024.
  9. bluewave
    A stronger east based event. Not necessarily the exact anomaly distribution. What do you mean by trending colder since we are just starting to get into the winter range now from earlier forecasts?
  10. bluewave
    This is an even stronger east based event than 1997-1998 was. The charts below are for what actually verified in C and F departures for that era. It was more extreme than general El Niño correlations.
  11. bluewave
    Super El Niños are significantly warmer than canonical El Niño patterns. None of the seasonal models were warm enough for either 2023-2024 or 2015-2016. This was probably the case also with whatever guidance they were using for the 1997-1998 winter forecast also. Correlations can give general ideas of which areas will be typically warmer or relatively cooler, but are not designed to handle extreme events like this one and the magnitudes of both 500 mb ridging and warmth.
  12. bluewave
    Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler. Verification in °C
  13. bluewave
    The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at. The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new. Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past.
  14. bluewave
    The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998. That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027. Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.
  15. bluewave
    Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.
  16. bluewave
    It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the warm pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records.
  17. bluewave
    Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer.
  18. bluewave
    Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan. This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012. While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing. But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence. If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America. Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.
  19. bluewave
    At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern.
  20. bluewave
    That’s why this forum is such a great resource. It allows people from all over to share ideas. Having all this information in one central location is very convenient.
  21. bluewave
    Yeah, my area along the CT Shoreline is showing marked improvement compared to how dry last summer was. Much greener now at the open spaces around Tweed airport. It was completely brown last summer. The water levels at my local reservoir are much higher this summer. Very impressive high dew point surge starting tomorrow and perhaps lasting till next Tuesday. Another near record ridge amplification. So continuing opportunities for convection.
  22. bluewave
    The expansion of the boreal forests into the tundra raises another set of issues. https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/boreal-trees-are-spreading-into-the-arctic-tundra-405025 In an increasingly warmer world, the Arctic tundra is becoming more forestlike. This process, known as borealization, is particularly widespread in Eurasia and in Arctic mountain regions, where the distance to the boreal (northern) forest is shorter. Many species of grasses and shrubs that can live in both the tundra and the forest are gaining ground in the tundra. This is shown by a new large-scale study of 1,100 sampling sites across the entire Arctic biome. Consequences “If this trend continues, it could have a number of consequences. For example, it could accelerate the melting of the permafrost or change the seasonal migration of reindeer. It could also affect the traditional livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, who rely on hunting, reindeer herding, and gathering plants as a part of their subsistence and cultural practice,” says Robert Björk, a researcher on Arctic ecosystems at the University of Gothenburg. When shrubs and other tree-like species expand, they trap more snow in winter and cover the ground in summer. This changes the ground temperature and can accelerate the thawing of the permafrost. As a result, large amounts of carbon that have been frozen for thousands of years could be released, contributing to global warming.
  23. bluewave
    Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America. Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer. This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper.
  24. bluewave
    The issue at hand is the expansion of wildfires in the boreal and other forests. Places like Canada have seen both national and regional record fire activity increase due to the warmer and drier conditions. The recent record fire in Ontario produced the record smoke from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. I don’t count that as a positive.
  25. bluewave
    Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.
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