bluewave

Yeah, a near to record Great Lakes cutter for this time of year.

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update.

Luckily, a drought in a region like ours without a well defined dry season like the West into the Plains hasn’t historically become as severe yet since we average much more precipitation here. The worst 1960s droughts in the Northeast didn’t have the same consequences as the Dust Bowl in the Plains during the 1930s or the historic drought issues being experienced in the West during recent times. Yes, the NYC reservoirs are doing much better since the last water restrictions in 2001-2002. But agricultural and gardening interests will have issues in a warmer climate era with the heat causing more evaporation than the old days. My area near the CT Shore had one of its driest summers last year and all the vegetation was brown. Even some local reservoirs dipped to low levels leading to some watering restrictions. Some smaller water district areas like portions of NJ they are getting close to having water supply conservation again after some reservoirs running very low a few years ago. We need more rain to remain out of drought since our climate has become so much warmer. Plus the expansive nature of the drought across the entire CONUS will have major impacts for many areas. So just by saying that NYC is doing fine compared to 2001-2002 misses the other consequences of expanding drought.

Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June.

Hopefully, the EPS is correct about the wetter pattern for late June. Coincides with the cooler pattern and a deeper trough in the forecast. Very long range forecasts are trying to bring back the warmth for early July. So we need to get some rains before more potential drying warmth.

The ridges have become more expansive than the troughs leading to the record drought across the CONUS.

Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool. So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern.

Looks like a rain shadow east of the mountains like they get out West.

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM. The models runs in late June will give us some clues. Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

The 7th driest June 1st to 16th at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Driest June 1st to 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967-06-16 T 0 2 1994-06-16 0.15 0 3 2005-06-16 0.23 0 4 1988-06-16 0.27 0 5 1999-06-16 0.31 0 6 2021-06-16 0.36 0 7 2026-06-16 0.38 0 8 1981-06-16 0.64 0 9 1973-06-16 0.67 0 10 2004-06-16 0.68 0

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4. 1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ June 10th 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6

The expanding drought has enhanced the daily high temperatures. We have been more on a La Niña background pattern through the WPAC warm pool leading to a strong ridge setting up over the East and ongoing national drought. Looks like the record El Niño will began to exert some influence next few weeks with the more standard Great Lakes trough and Western ridge for June El Niño climo. We could briefly see some 90° readings on Thursday. But the next few weeks will be a relaxation for the record heat of the first half of June. We will have to wait until we get near the start of July to see how much the El Niño and marine heatwaves in other regions like the WPAC influence the July pattern.

Some recent studies show that the local cold blob in the North Atlantic is a result of stronger winds from the more persistent +NAOs rather than a slowdown in the AMOC. ‪Anthony Masiello‬ ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬ · 7mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. ‪Sang-Ki Lee‬ ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬ · 7mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests: ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org

Impressive and record breaking Nino 3.4 lead over 2016 and 1997 for June 14th at 29.32C or +1.61 C.

Could be some great radiational cooling tonight into the upper 40s at usual radiational cooling spots.

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East. Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative. But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme.

Not too big of a surprise that the models have less rainfall in the forecast this week than in earlier forecasts. New EPS forecast June 15-22 Old EPS forecast June 15-22

While the CFS missed the summer PDO drop last summer, it’s still forecasting the PDO to remain negative into next January. Mostly due to the stronger ridge and lighter winds east of Japan. The main reason the current PDO is less strongly negative than recent years at this time is the record +PMM. In the past record +PMM patterns often coincided with a robust +PDO before the warm pool emerged east of Japan.

The area experienced a top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of June. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Top 5 Warmest June 1-14 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-06-14 72.3 0 2 2008-06-14 71.4 0 3 2026-06-14 70.2 0 4 2021-06-14 69.9 0 5 2007-06-14 68.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2005-06-14 72.4 2 2 2008-06-14 72.0 0 3 1984-06-14 71.5 0 4 1999-06-14 71.1 0 5 2026-06-14 71.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1973-06-14 77.2 0 2 1984-06-14 76.8 0 3 2008-06-14 76.3 0 4 2005-06-14 76.1 0 5 2026-06-14 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1984-06-14 75.4 0 2 2008-06-14 73.8 0 3 2026-06-14 72.8 0 4 2024-06-14 71.5 0 - 2005-06-14 71.5 0 - 1999-06-14 71.5 0 5 1971-06-14 71.4 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2008-06-14 72.0 0 2 1984-06-14 71.8 0 3 1973-06-14 71.5 0 4 1999-06-14 71.4 0 5 2026-06-14 70.6 0

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997. Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America. Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

Looks like the warmth backs off starting Monday with temperatures closer to seasonable for the next 5 to 10 days. Could still sneak in a few 90° days along the way. But most days probably staying in the 80s after this current heatwave ends.

Yeah, the tree growth over the equipment since the 90s when the trees are leafed out from the spring into late fall has been creating an artificial high temperature cooling there. I can remember when the station was out in the open and often had warmer highs than LGA and sometimes Newark. More record highs today around the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 98 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE, HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 72 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 70 DEGREES, SET IN 1973. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 530 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN PHILADELPHIA PA... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 95 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1947 AND 2015. RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA PA AREA DATE BACK TO 1872. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES TODAY AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT NJ... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 94 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT NJ AREA DATE BACK TO 1943. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 528 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED IN TRENTON NJ... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT NEAR TRENTON NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1933. Data for June 12, 2026 through June 12, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 97 NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 95 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 94 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 93 NY CENTERPORT COOP 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 93 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 93 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 92 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 92 NY SYOSSET COOP 92 NY ST. JAMES COOP 92 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 92 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 91 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 91 CT GUILFORD COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 90 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 90 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 90 Data for June 11, 2026 through June 11, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 93 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 92 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 92 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 92 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 92 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91