bluewave

This may be the first time so early in the season that a low during and El Niño year backed all the way into the Jersey Shore from the east. The perfect storm back in October 1991 looped offshore but didn’t make it all the way back to the coast. The January 1992 storm backed in off the ocean into the Delmarva. But the Christmas 1994 subtropical low did make it all the way back to the coast from the east. These patterns are mostly a result of very strong 500 mb ridging north of the Great Lakes and into the Canadian Maritimes preventing the storms from escaping to the east of Cape Cod like we usually see with coastal low tracks. This month the record ridge over the south was able to build north of the Great Lakes resulting in the capture of the east coast storm. Now the recurving typhoons are giving us a strong +WPO +EPO pattern in early October which we typically see during La Niña patterns this time of year. But this is only a snapshot of early October and could shift again mid to late month.

It’s just really wild to see a nearly +29°C warm pool in Nino 3 region this time of year. This is supposed to be the coolest part of the year for that SST region. SSTs this high have only been reached a few times but during the late winter into spring when the annual SSTs peak there.

Continuing to add to the record east based nature of this event with the first ever daily Nino 3 anomaly crossing the historic +4 mark.

Impressive tidal piling now on the GSB as the high tide from earlier today is having trouble draining out. I used to live not far from the tide gauge in Lindenhurst located close to Chateau La Mer. While the model did pretty well with this high tide this morning, it missed how much higher the water level is now than the forecast.

Getting some breaks of sun here between the bands. Great looking warm seclusion underway. Even some clearing near the center as we sometimes see with these.

At least MPO was able to drop below 40° this September. While still the 4th warmest monthly minimum for September, it was a little cooler than the last few years. JFK finished 2nd warmest on their minimum for September so far. Plenty of onshore flow this month keeping the mimimums up. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep Top 5 warmest minimum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 44 0 2 2025 41 0 - 2024 41 0 - 2023 41 0 - 1933 41 0 3 2018 40 0 - 2011 40 0 - 2002 40 0 4 2026 39 5 - 2022 39 0 - 2021 39 0 - 2012 39 0 - 1952 39 0 5 2010 38 0 - 2009 38 0 - 2004 38 0 - 2003 38 0 - 1954 38 0 - 1945 38 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Top 5 warmest monthly minimum temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 56 0 - 2015 56 0 2 2026 54 5 - 2021 54 0 - 2018 54 0 - 2017 54 0 - 2002 54 0 - 1994 54 0 - 1968 54 0 3 2010 53 0 - 1987 53 0 - 1982 53 0 - 1960 53 0 4 2025 52 0 - 2012 52 0 - 2008 52 0 - 2003 52 0 5 2023 51 0 - 2016 51 0 - 2014 51 0 - 2004 51 0 - 1999 51 0 - 1971 51 0 - 1952 51 0

Impressive subtropical or hybrid characteristics with that one and also during an El Niño year.

Gorgeous sunset this evening near the CT Shoreline.

The AIFS did a nice job looping this back to the coast from over 220 hrs out last week.

Yeah, the mean tide forecast tomorrow for the GSB is just below the Hurricane Irene mark which maxed out at the +5.5 level.

Yeah, Sandy Hook could reach the 9ft level or a bit higher which would only require a 3.5 foot surge on top of the 5.5 astronomical level with the full moon tomorrow morning. A 4 foot surge coinciding with the morning height tide would get to the 9.5 foot level. The back bays of Long Island could see an even higher surge relative to their locations. The models have a tide level in Freeport forecast close to 8 foot mark. That would approach the Hurricane Irene tide level.

Latest tide forecast gets Sandy Hook near the 10th highest tide level tomorrow and highest tide of the 2020s. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8531680

Latest SPC HREF Max is similar to the RGEM showing 5”+ potential on Long Island where the best banding develops NW of the center. But the location of these bands often shifts right up to storm time. So we’ll have to review again later with the new guidance today.

Another PDO drop as we approach the all-time warmest SSTs this time of year ENE of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

The Euro and NAM keep the 10”+ maxes offshore due to the loop back west occurring further to the south. So the exact track will make a big difference here. But all the guidance is saying the same thing just with different tracks.

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore. An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like 13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far. The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event. The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides.

A combination of Cocorahs and COOP sites. Your area does pretty well and is on par with MPO. It’s too bad they don’t have a contract snowfall observer at MPO. Since there is quite a bit of missing snowfall data there when there weren’t volunteer observers nearby in the past. Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAKE HARMONY 2.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.4 PORTLAND 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 50.2 BOWMANSTOWN 3.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 41.8 PALMERTON 5.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 41.6 TATAMY 0.2 WNW CoCoRaHS 39.0 SLATINGTON 6.0 WSW CoCoRaHS 38.7 TREMONT 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.9 MARTINS CREEK COOP 37.7 SCHNECKSVILLE 1.7 ENE CoCoRaHS 37.4 NAZARETH 1.1 W CoCoRaHS 36.8 ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 35.5 Data for October 1, 2025 through April 30, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RICHMONDALE 0.1 NE CoCoRaHS 59.1 MILFORD 8.7 NW CoCoRaHS 58.1 MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 57.9 DYBERRY 2.1 W CoCoRaHS 56.7 CANADENSIS EAST COOP 56.1 PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP 53.8 EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 53.5 LORDS VALLEY 2.5 SE CoCoRaHS 52.6 CANAAN - 11 CoCoRaHS 52.3 MOSCOW 4.9 E CoCoRaHS 51.5 EFFORT 3.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 46.9 PROMPTON DAM COOP 42.0 WEST HAZLETON 3.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 38.5 WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 37.8

It’s interesting that the greatest October +EPO variation from the El Niño -EPO mean occurred in 1982 and 1997. October 2023, 2015, and 1972 were more Nino-like in that regard. But the North Pacific low is becoming more active than it has been which you pointed out in your post.

While we are still only getting a snapshot for the start of October, a +EPO is classic La Niña for October. We’ll see if heights can rebound a bit near Alaska which is more typical for El Niño. Still to early to tell where the ridge and trough locations finish for the entire month.

If the difference is mostly on clear nights with calm winds, then it could just be variations in radiational cooling. Even a very light wind can make a difference between a spot that has completely calm winds. Plus there could be some differences related to varying altitudes. Data for September 1, 2026 through September 23, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 53.9 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 54.7 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 56.5 NJ SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW COOP 56.5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 56.8 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 57.2 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 57.7 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 57.9 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 58.3 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 58.4 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 58.4 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 58.8 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 59.6 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 59.7 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 59.7 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 59.8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 59.8 Climatological Data for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - September 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1576 1186 - - 78 33 3.19 Average 71.6 53.9 62.8 2.3 - - - Normal 70.0 50.9 60.5 - 121 21 4.03 2026-09-01 82 65 73.5 10.0 0 9 0.10 2026-09-02 69 62 65.5 2.3 0 1 0.41 2026-09-03 81 62 71.5 8.5 0 7 0.37 2026-09-04 76 63 69.5 6.7 0 5 0.00 2026-09-05 73 57 65.0 2.5 0 0 0.00 2026-09-06 72 52 62.0 -0.2 3 0 0.00 2026-09-07 72 48 60.0 -2.0 5 0 0.00 2026-09-08 74 47 60.5 -1.2 4 0 0.00 2026-09-09 75 53 64.0 2.6 1 0 0.01 2026-09-10 78 62 70.0 8.9 0 5 0.23 2026-09-11 71 50 60.5 -0.3 4 0 0.00 2026-09-12 72 46 59.0 -1.4 6 0 T 2026-09-13 76 62 69.0 8.9 0 4 0.44 2026-09-14 65 44 54.5 -5.3 10 0 0.00 2026-09-15 67 39 53.0 -6.4 12 0 0.00 2026-09-16 77 51 64.0 4.9 1 0 0.00 2026-09-17 71 63 67.0 8.3 0 2 0.66 2026-09-18 74 54 64.0 5.6 1 0 0.00 2026-09-19 63 53 58.0 0.0 7 0 0.05 2026-09-20 64 55 59.5 1.8 5 0 0.76 2026-09-21 64 50 57.0 -0.3 8 0 0.14 2026-09-22 60 48 54.0 -2.9 11 0 0.02 2026-09-23 M M M M M M M 2026-09-24 M M M M M M M 2026-09-25 M M M M M M M 2026-09-26 M M M M M M M 2026-09-27 M M M M M M M 2026-09-28 M M M M M M M 2026-09-29 M M M M M M M 2026-09-30 M M M M M M M

It will find a way to rain on the weekend especially here on the CT Shoreline. Bridgeport has seen rain nearly every weekend going back to July. I bolded the weekend days below to show how consistent this pattern has been. Rainfall Data for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-07-01 1.03 2026-07-02 0.00 2026-07-03 0.00 2026-07-04 0.46 2026-07-05 0.95 2026-07-06 2.85 2026-07-07 T 2026-07-08 0.00 2026-07-09 0.00 2026-07-10 0.00 2026-07-11 0.00 2026-07-12 0.00 2026-07-13 0.00 2026-07-14 0.00 2026-07-15 0.00 2026-07-16 0.00 2026-07-17 0.00 2026-07-18 1.15 2026-07-19 0.00 2026-07-20 0.00 2026-07-21 2.59 2026-07-22 0.00 2026-07-23 0.00 2026-07-24 0.00 2026-07-25 0.00 2026-07-26 0.00 2026-07-27 0.00 2026-07-28 T 2026-07-29 2.90 2026-07-30 0.40 2026-07-31 0.00 2026-08-01 0.00 2026-08-02 0.02 2026-08-03 0.97 2026-08-04 0.00 2026-08-05 T 2026-08-06 T 2026-08-07 0.33 2026-08-08 0.05 2026-08-09 0.00 2026-08-10 0.02 2026-08-11 0.00 2026-08-12 0.00 2026-08-13 0.98 2026-08-14 0.04 2026-08-15 0.00 2026-08-16 0.03 2026-08-17 0.18 2026-08-18 T 2026-08-19 0.00 2026-08-20 1.36 2026-08-21 0.00 2026-08-22 0.02 2026-08-23 2.36 2026-08-24 T 2026-08-25 0.00 2026-08-26 0.00 2026-08-27 T 2026-08-28 T 2026-08-29 0.00 2026-08-30 0.03 2026-08-31 T 2026-09-01 1.12 2026-09-02 0.09 2026-09-03 0.11 2026-09-04 0.29 2026-09-05 0.12 2026-09-06 0.01 2026-09-07 0.00 2026-09-08 0.00 2026-09-09 0.00 2026-09-10 T 2026-09-11 0.00 2026-09-12 0.00 2026-09-13 4.25 2026-09-14 0.00 2026-09-15 0.00 2026-09-16 T 2026-09-17 T 2026-09-18 0.01 2026-09-19 0.00 2026-09-20 0.43 2026-09-21 0.01

It’s as if the spring into summer pattern was influenced by the rapid reversal in the Arctic. Notice how we developed a strong blocking pattern over the Arctic following the record early SSW back in November. This pattern locked in through the record blizzard in late February. Then rapidly reversed in March and we continue to see a deep vortex near the North Pole that we have been discussing. It’s possible that’s why the +AAM didn’t translate to the mid-latitudes this summer. Since even the strong -PDO summer of 2023 was still able to have a more Nino-like 500mb pattern. The usual developing super El Niño summer normally has a strong 500mb ridge near the North Pole over the summer.

The warmer minimums this month relative to the maximums have been driving the departures. NYC stands out at the coolest major urban station with the trees too close to the sensor giving an assist to the cooler minimums relative to the nearby urban sites. NJ and Eastern PA have been the warmest sites this month to date. New England has been the coolest this month which was further from the record ridge to our south. 9-1 to 9-22 minimum departures MPO.. +3.0° NBW…+4.4° PHL….+5.2° SMQ…+3.6° EWR….+2.6° NYC…..+0.8° LGA…..+1.4° JFK……+3.1° ISP……..+1.8° BDR…..+0.7° HPN…..+2.2°

One of reasons February 1983 had such a memorable snowstorm and 1998 didn’t was probably related to how east based 1998 was in February. 1982-1983 really didn’t become east based until after the winter was over. It was more full-basin in February compared to 1998.

Interesting timing of the release date on this new study since we could at least see our first monthly global temperatures near +2°C. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10237-9 nature articles article Article Open access Published: 25 March 2026 Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes Effectively communicating worst-case projections of global future climate—hereinafter referred to as worst-case climate outcomes—is essential for risk assessment and developing robust adaptation strategies to global warming1,2,3,4,5,6,7. Yet, current approaches for identifying spatially consistent climate outcomes are limited, with worst-case global climates typically communicated via the average of climate model projections at high global warming levels, such as 3 °C or 4 °C above the preindustrial era8,9. Here we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. We derive these results by identifying sector-specific, spatially consistent potential high- and low-impact global climate outcomes through spatially averaging projected sector-relevant climatic impact-drivers across key global regions. Our approach can easily be adapted to a wide range of sectors to support the improvement of sector-specific climate risk assessment and to inform climate policy. As global warming approaches 1.5 °C (ref. 10), these findings underscore the urgency of rapid mitigation to limit warming well below 2 °C, as even a 2 °C world may entail severe impacts.