bluewave

While the warmth in the Northeast during super El Niño winters has been a main feature for us, the snowfall has been more variable. Would need SPV activity at least somewhat like 2015-2016 to at least make the snowfall a little more interesting than 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. But probably wouldn’t be able to forecast such a reversal until the winter is already underway. So not many people would be willing to include it in their seasonal forecasts with the warmer risks of such an extreme El Niño event that is developing. Plus not sure if we could go 3 winters in a row with such strong blocks like we had in February 2025 and the 2025-2026 winter at different intervals. 2015-2016 was a reversal of the record +NAO +AO pattern in 2014-2015 +AO. So may not be able to use it as a reasonable blocking analog. Very extreme NAO and AO reversals have become the norm since 2009-2010. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025288 In January 2016, Asia and North America experienced unusual cold temperatures, although the global average of surface air temperature broke the warmest record during a strong El Niño event. This was closely related to the remarkable phase transition of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which can be explained by stratosphere-troposphere interactions. First, the quasi-biennial oscillation changed to its westerly phase in summer 2015 and the stratospheric polar vortex was stronger in early to midwinter 2015/2016. As blocking did not occur in December, the associated downward propagation signal resulted in a strongly positive AO in late December 2015. Second, after late December, the positive phase of Pacific-North America pattern became apparent in El Niño event, which strengthened the Aleutian anticyclone in the stratosphere. In addition, an equivalent barotropic (“blocking”) anticyclone was established in the troposphere over Asia. The coexistence of blocking over Asia and North America characterized the negative AO and a strong zonal wave number 2 pattern. Due to stronger zonal wave number 2 signals from the troposphere, the stronger stratospheric polar vortex was elongated, with two cyclonic centers over Asia and the North Atlantic in January. The resultant southward displacement of polar vortices was followed by rare snowfall in the subtropical region of East Asia and a heavy snowstorm on the East Coast of the United States.

Yeah, the other overlapping marine heatwaves are adding warmer La Niña-like influences to the mix. Especially when the forcing extends closer to the Maritime Continent which pumps the Southeast ridge. This is why the pattern has been so much warmer in the East this spring into June than we have typically have seen during past developing super El Niños. But the next 10 days look more Nino-like with a trough centered near the Great Lakes and less warmth in the East. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=24&which=cd&csector=conus&var=high&w=rank&p=day&year=2026&month=5&sdate=2026%2F06%2F01&edate=2026%2F06%2F19&cmap=RdYlBu&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Unfortunately, another even more extreme heatwave less than a month later. Translated from French The average thermal anomaly for the next 7 days could reach +9.0°C, which is greater than during the exceptional episode of May 2026, whose return period was estimated at more than 1,000 years. We're just two weeks after breaking that supposed millennial record... The June 2026 heatwave could thus become the most anomalous episode ever observed in France over a one-week period, across all seasons and all durations combined. Furthermore, Monday could enter the Top 3 of the hottest days ever recorded in France, alongside the historical benchmarks of July 25, 2019 (national average temperature of 29.40°C) and August 4, 2003 (29.35°C). If the forecasts hold true, this day would join the most significant dates in French climate history.

Warm spots like Newark are currently in 2nd place for most 90° days by the summer solstice. But the area will see fewer 90° days in late June with the pattern closer to seasonable. So Newark should fall further back closer to 4th or 5th place by June 30th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 21st Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-21 14 0 2 2026-06-21 13 3 3 2021-06-21 12 0 - 1987-06-21 12 0 4 1986-06-21 11 0 5 1988-06-21 10 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 90° days by June 30th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-30 18 0 2 2021-06-30 16 0 - 2010-06-30 16 0 3 1987-06-30 15 0 4 1986-06-30 14 0 5 2026-06-30 13 12 - 1965-06-30 13 0 - 1943-06-30 13 0 6 2024-06-30 12 0 - 1994-06-30 12 0 - 1993-06-30 12 0 - 1880-06-30 12 0

Yeah, a near to record Great Lakes cutter for this time of year.

Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Euro increases its ONI Nino 3.4 forecast plumes a bit more with the coming July 5th update.

Luckily, a drought in a region like ours without a well defined dry season like the West into the Plains hasn’t historically become as severe yet since we average much more precipitation here. The worst 1960s droughts in the Northeast didn’t have the same consequences as the Dust Bowl in the Plains during the 1930s or the historic drought issues being experienced in the West during recent times. Yes, the NYC reservoirs are doing much better since the last water restrictions in 2001-2002. But agricultural and gardening interests will have issues in a warmer climate era with the heat causing more evaporation than the old days. My area near the CT Shore had one of its driest summers last year and all the vegetation was brown. Even some local reservoirs dipped to low levels leading to some watering restrictions. Some smaller water district areas like portions of NJ they are getting close to having water supply conservation again after some reservoirs running very low a few years ago. We need more rain to remain out of drought since our climate has become so much warmer. Plus the expansive nature of the drought across the entire CONUS will have major impacts for many areas. So just by saying that NYC is doing fine compared to 2001-2002 misses the other consequences of expanding drought.

Really impressive to see the Nino 3.4 actual SSTs just -0.45C cooler than the November 2015 all-time record and its only June.

Hopefully, the EPS is correct about the wetter pattern for late June. Coincides with the cooler pattern and a deeper trough in the forecast. Very long range forecasts are trying to bring back the warmth for early July. So we need to get some rains before more potential drying warmth.

The ridges have become more expansive than the troughs leading to the record drought across the CONUS.

Forcing extending back to the WPAC warm pool as we approach early July may result in more Niña-like elements than we typically see with super El Niños continuing. This has been the case during the spring into summer so far with the record 30 C warm pool. So we can see overlapping influences continue with the North American pattern.

Looks like a rain shadow east of the mountains like they get out West.

At least you live far enough north where even a -10 or lower season would yield more actual snowfall than an average season from NYC to Philly.

You needed to be further south than Boston to really cash in relative to the means. The NY Metro area had the snowy clippers in December. With the benchmark snowstorm track returning from late January to late February. But overall we got a boost from the cold and higher ratio fluff as the drought that developed in the fall of 2024 persists.

The thing to watch for in July is how much the warm pool near Japan driving the -PDO interacts with the +PMM. The models runs in late June will give us some clues. Could be another overlapping pattern with some Nino-like and Niña-like influences to 500 mb pattern for North America.

The 7th driest June 1st to 16th at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Driest June 1st to 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967-06-16 T 0 2 1994-06-16 0.15 0 3 2005-06-16 0.23 0 4 1988-06-16 0.27 0 5 1999-06-16 0.31 0 6 2021-06-16 0.36 0 7 2026-06-16 0.38 0 8 1981-06-16 0.64 0 9 1973-06-16 0.67 0 10 2004-06-16 0.68 0

The 500 mb pattern is beginning to look more Nino-like during the second half of June. Finally getting the familiar ridge just west of British Columbia. This is allowing the typical June El Niño trough to form near the Great Lakes.

We are going to need a new classification system for this one. Maybe something like a super east to west basin event to reflect how spread out the record warmth is. Currently getting near to record breaking SSTs for the week of June 10th for developing El Niños using the traditional ONI from 1+2 all the way over to Nino 4. 1997-1998 was the previous record holder for east based events. 2015-2016 was the leader for Nino 3.4 and 4. 2023-2024 tied 2015-2016 in Nino 4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ June 10th 10JUN2026 26.1 2.7 28.3 1.6 29.2 1.5 30.1 1.3 07JUN2023 26.1 2.6 28.0 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.5 0.7 10JUN2015 25.5 2.0 27.8 1.2 28.7 0.9 29.8 0.9 11JUN1997 26.1 2.8 27.8 1.1 28.4 0.7 28.9 0.1 At peak strength all-time Nino region warmest SSTs bolded with ties 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6

The expanding drought has enhanced the daily high temperatures. We have been more on a La Niña background pattern through the WPAC warm pool leading to a strong ridge setting up over the East and ongoing national drought. Looks like the record El Niño will began to exert some influence next few weeks with the more standard Great Lakes trough and Western ridge for June El Niño climo. We could briefly see some 90° readings on Thursday. But the next few weeks will be a relaxation for the record heat of the first half of June. We will have to wait until we get near the start of July to see how much the El Niño and marine heatwaves in other regions like the WPAC influence the July pattern.

Some recent studies show that the local cold blob in the North Atlantic is a result of stronger winds from the more persistent +NAOs rather than a slowdown in the AMOC. ‪Anthony Masiello‬ ‪@antmasiello.bsky.social‬ · 7mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. ‪Sang-Ki Lee‬ ‪@sklee621.bsky.social‬ · 7mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests: ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org

Impressive and record breaking Nino 3.4 lead over 2016 and 1997 for June 14th at 29.32C or +1.61 C.

Could be some great radiational cooling tonight into the upper 40s at usual radiational cooling spots.

The first half of June was solidly more La Niña-like with the strong -PNA and record warmth in the East. Pretty impressive that we got a La Niña-like +SOI pattern while the SOI was solidly negative. But the current pattern heading into mid to late June is more Nino-like. So a continuation of the competing or overlapping influences theme.

Not too big of a surprise that the models have less rainfall in the forecast this week than in earlier forecasts. New EPS forecast June 15-22 Old EPS forecast June 15-22

While the CFS missed the summer PDO drop last summer, it’s still forecasting the PDO to remain negative into next January. Mostly due to the stronger ridge and lighter winds east of Japan. The main reason the current PDO is less strongly negative than recent years at this time is the record +PMM. In the past record +PMM patterns often coincided with a robust +PDO before the warm pool emerged east of Japan.