bluewave

Yeah, the 100°+ heat has generally been occurring earlier in the summer since 2010 than in previous decades. Only 2 years since then recorded 100° heat between August 1st and 9th. No 100° heat from August 10th onward. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-09 (2011) 06-30 (2021) 0 Mean 07-01 07-21 19 Maximum 07-20 (2022) 08-09 (2022) 43 2025 06-23 (2025) 101 07-30 (2025) 100 36 2024 06-21 (2024) 100 08-01 (2024) 100 40 2023 - - - - - 2022 07-20 (2022) 100 08-09 (2022) 101 19 2021 06-29 (2021) 102 06-30 (2021) 103 0 2020 - - - - - 2019 - - - - - 2018 - - - - - 2017 - - - - - 2016 - - - - - 2015 - - - - - 2014 - - - - - 2013 07-18 (2013) 101 07-19 (2013) 100 0 2012 07-07 (2012) 102 07-18 (2012) 104 10 2011 06-09 (2011) 102 07-23 (2011) 102 43 2010 07-04 (2010) 101 07-07 (2010) 101 2 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-15 (1994) 06-19 (1994) 0 Mean 07-11 07-25 13 Maximum 08-07 (2001) 09-03 (1993) 75 2009 - - - - - 2008 - - - - - 2007 - - - - - 2006 08-01 (2006) 100 08-03 (2006) 101 1 2005 07-27 (2005) 101 08-13 (2005) 102 16 2004 - - - - - 2003 - - - - - 2002 07-04 (2002) 100 08-13 (2002) 100 39 2001 08-07 (2001) 100 08-09 (2001) 105 1 2000 - - - - - 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-19 (1999) 100 13 1998 - - - - - 1997 07-15 (1997) 101 07-17 (1997) 100 1 1996 - - - - - 1995 07-15 (1995) 104 07-15 (1995) 104 0 1994 06-15 (1994) 101 06-19 (1994) 102 3 1993 06-19 (1993) 102 09-03 (1993) 100 75 1992 - - - - - 1991 07-20 (1991) 100 07-21 (1991) 102 0 1990 - - - - - 1989 - - - - - 1988 06-22 (1988) 101 07-17 (1988) 100 24 1987 - - - - - 1986 07-07 (1986) 100 07-07 (1986) 100 0 1985 - - - - - 1984 - - - - - 1983 - - - - - 1982 07-18 (1982) 100 07-18 (1982) 100 0 1981 - - - - - First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-21 (1953) 06-26 (1943) 0 Mean 07-14 07-27 12 Maximum 08-28 (1973) 09-02 (1953) 72 1980 07-20 (1980) 101 07-21 (1980) 101 0 1979 - - - - - 1978 - - - - - 1977 07-19 (1977) 100 07-21 (1977) 102 1 1976 - - - - - 1975 - - - - - 1974 - - - - - 1973 08-28 (1973) 100 08-28 (1973) 100 0 1972 - - - - - 1971 - - - - - 1970 - - - - - 1969 - - - - - 1968 - - - - - 1967 - - - - - 1966 06-27 (1966) 101 07-13 (1966) 100 15 1965 - - - - - 1964 - - - - - 1963 07-01 (1963) 100 07-01 (1963) 100 0 1962 - - - - - 1961 - - - - - 1960 - - - - - 1959 06-29 (1959) 100 06-29 (1959) 100 0 1958 - - - - - 1957 07-22 (1957) 101 07-22 (1957) 101 0 1956 - - - - - 1955 07-05 (1955) 101 08-02 (1955) 100 27 1954 07-14 (1954) 102 07-31 (1954) 103 16 1953 06-21 (1953) 100 09-02 (1953) 105 72 1952 06-26 (1952) 102 06-26 (1952) 102 0 1951 - - - - - 1950 - - - - - 1949 07-03 (1949) 100 08-11 (1949) 102 38 1948 08-26 (1948) 103 08-28 (1948) 102 1 1947 - - - - - 1946 - - - - - 1945 - - - - - 1944 08-04 (1944) 100 08-13 (1944) 100 8 1943 06-25 (1943) 100 06-26 (1943) 102 0 1942 - - - - - 1941 - - - - - 1940 - - - - -

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast. Correlation Verification

We need to see months of wetter condions to end the longer term drought. This is a nice start if we can build on it. So August will be important to see if this continues.

Another opportunity for a soaking rain event Tuesday into Wednesday. A PRE-like feature could develop from the tropical system in the Gulf. Generally cooler conditions the rest of the month with a trough in the East. Possibly more rainfall chances during this period. So multiple stations are on track for their wettest month in a while. Then we wait and see what pattern emerges after this as we head into August.

It temporarily removes warmth from around the equator in the ENSO regions. But the heat release following each super El Niño finds its way into the adjacent oceans and land areas. You can see how the oceanic and atmospheric heat increases following each El Niño back to 1997-1998. This is why the global baseline temperature sets a new record during each super El Niño. The temperatures pullback slightly in the following years but a well above the previous years which were neutral or La Niña. The 1997-1998 event below was followed by warming in the Arctic. The heat release from the ENSO regions in 2015-2016 founds its way into the 30N to 60N mid-latitude regions. This is the persistent -PDO that we have seen since around 2019. Also notice how the Nino 1+2 and other regions didn’t fully release all the heat following the 2023-2024 before recharging with more heat only 3 years apart. So this is a first in our modern climate era. That’s why when I saw the record WWBs in the spring it wasn’t a surprise when the ENSO forecasts started showing another super El Niño so soon. So the big to watch story going forward following this strongest event on record is what areas will see the greatest temp jumps in the late 2020s?

That’s due to the evolution of the climate models lagging behind the speed at which the climate is warming. So all these big shifts have been occurring without any prior notice. The first big global temperature jump in 1997-1998 lead to the loss of most of the older Arctic sea ice during the 2000’s. Summers began to significantly warm around 2010 at this new higher baseline level. North American winters dramatically warmed following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. The rapid warming of the Pacific east of Japan and to the north of Hawaii occurred at this new baseline. The next big jump was in 2023-2024 which is only three years ago. Two of the warmest winters on record for the CONUS occurred at this new higher temperature level. Now we are looking at another global temperature jump with this strongest El Niño on record only three years later which is a first. So my guess is that we see more shifts which weren’t anticipated following the jump in global temperatures with this even more extreme event.

Both the mid-latitude North and South Pacific ridges have dramatically expanded since the late 90s. The first expansion coincided with the first global higher baseline temperature jump following the 1997-1998 super El Niño. The 2nd and more dramatic expansion occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This is the pattern which is driving the record -PDO since 2018-2019 with the record surface and subsurface warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. Some of the climate models run back in 2013 were showing a similar pattern developing. But it was forecast to be a much slower process than what has occurred and be focused a little further north. So my guess is that the planet is much more sensitive to the effects of warming than the climate models forecasted. Plus the model which showed this ridge expansion also forecast to lower pressures over the Arctic the summer like we have seen since 2013. We were just discussing the very strong low north of Alaska during June. North Pacific 500 mb ridge expansion

Radar estimates close to 4 inches where the flash flooding occurred in Queens.

New all-time highest MSLP record set for Australia.

The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline. It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños.

This was a great satellite loop from the other day that sums up what we have been experiencing this week.

Flash flood threat NYC metro with this warm frontal training first round of convection. Some hail also beginning to show up. Tropical PWATS with this. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181528Z - 182128Z Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are 1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation. This would be most problematic in urban areas.

Impressive severe and flash flooding threat. The AMO has rapidly increased to near record levels. So a deep tropical moisture feed with strong shear.

We began to dry out shortly after the super El Nino in 2023-2024 during the fall. The warmer climate requires more water than 50 years ago due to increased evaporation rates. One of the areas that needs more research are these expanding 500mb ridges that get stuck in place for weeks to months. So we get regions with record drought under the ridges which are bounded by record flooding like we are currently seeing in Texas. The more erratic precipitation patterns are a real challenge for the agricultural and landscaping fields. Since long range precipitation forecasts beyond a week or two aren’t the greatest. Trying to figure out where your local area will end up between the wet and dry extremes isn’t the easiest to navigate.

NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.70 2.60 3.60 2.48 3.05 3.39 1.83 M M M M M 19.65 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 2.21 2.76 4.08 2.09 3.38 39.57 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37

The rapid expansion of the record heat and drought in Canada during the 2020s along with how remote the forests are makes this a very challenging issue with no quick fixes.

It probably helped that the Southeast had much colder winters back in that era.

Yeah, at least the 100°+ heat has really been front-loaded during the 2020s. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ May-September Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 92 98 101 97 91 101 2020 87 96 98 97 91 98 2021 93 101 100 99 90 101 2022 96 98 102 101 92 102 2023 89 93 97 92 96 97 2024 88 100 101 100 86 101 2025 88 103 102 95 90 103 2026 100 97 106 M M 106 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 for HARRISON, NJ May-September Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 1 2 0 0 3 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 2021 0 1 1 0 0 2 2022 0 0 3 1 0 4 2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 2024 0 1 1 1 0 3 2025 0 3 3 0 0 6 2026 1 0 3 M M 4

1997 -1998 would be a case of the warmest departures for NYC occurring in January and February. The actual February average temperature was the warmest monthly temperature of the winter. Dec…38.2°….+2.0 Jan…40.0°…..+8.6° Feb…..40.6°….+7.0° 2023-2024 had the warmest departure in December and the 2nd warmest in February. Dec…44.6°…..+5.5° Jan….37.0°……+3.3° Feb….40.1°……+4.2° 2015-2016 was the most extreme front-loaded super El Niño for warmth with +13.3 in December. Dec….50.8°…..+13.3° Jan…..34.5°….+1.9° Feb…..37.7°……+2.4°

Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter. The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest. It’s an example how really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February. While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period. The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal. MSP 1877-1878 DEC….+14.5 JAN…..+9.8 FEB……+15.8 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 19.3 12.0 15.7 15.6 Max 33.8 1877 25.9 1880 31.9 1877 1872-1873 6.0 5.4 12.8 8.1 1873-1874 17.6 12.2 12.6 14.1 1874-1875 17.2 -3.4 -2.6 3.7 1875-1876 24.7 15.7 15.9 18.8 1876-1877 8.3 8.6 31.9 16.3 1877-1878 33.8 21.8 31.5 29.0 1878-1879 19.1 16.1 12.7 16.0 1879-1880 11.5 25.9 19.6 19.0 1880-1881 13.2 7.9 17.1 12.7 1881-1882 29.0 19.0 30.4 26.1 1882-1883 15.0 0.8 12.1 9.3 1883-1884 19.7 8.8 12.9 13.8 1884-1885 14.8 4.4 11.3 10.2 1885-1886 21.0 3.7 14.9 13.2 1886-1887 7.3 0.7 9.4 5.8 1887-1888 17.4 -0.4 13.1 10.0 1888-1889 25.2 20.7 10.6 18.8 1889-1890 28.8 10.6 19.2 19.5 1890-1891 24.4 21.6 11.8 19.3 1891-1892 30.1 13.5 22.9 22.2 1892-1893 16.8 7.3 12.0 12.0 1893-1894 14.0 12.3 15.7 14.0 1894-1895 28.1 7.0 12.0 15.7 1895-1896 22.5 16.8 22.3 20.5 1896-1897 24.4 10.6 20.0 18.3 1897-1898 15.3 23.0 20.6 19.6 1898-1899 14.1 13.7 7.8 11.9 1899-1900 21.4 21.3 8.6 17.1 1900-1901 21.0 15.2 12.3 16.2 1901-1902 15.9 18.7 18.2 17.6

The variability we have been getting into mid-July is more a function of the mid-latitude wave pattern doing its own thing relative to the tropics through mid-July with the strong -PDO +AMO summer 2020s background pattern. It’s a first for the developing super El Niño composite including 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. The current forcing from 150E to 30W is more impressive than both 2015 and 1997 combined. This doesn’t rule out intervals of IO to MC forcing into the winter. But it could be an early sign than the -PDO +AMO mid-latitude enhanced ridge pattern could overlap with the super El Niño composite going into the winter.

Looks like the heat shifts to Western CONUS heading into late July with more comfortable temperatures here.

This summer is following the 2020s theme of top 10 warmth from June 1st to July 15th. This has allowed several of the warm spots around the region to record 20+ days reaching 90°. Harrison is in 2nd place for the most 90° days by July 16th. Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ Warmest June 1st to 15th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-15 76.1 0 2 2010-07-15 75.5 0 3 2026-07-15 74.9 0 4 2025-07-15 74.4 0 5 2013-07-15 74.3 0 - 2008-07-15 74.3 0 6 1994-07-15 74.2 0 7 2021-07-15 74.0 0 8 2020-07-15 73.8 0 9 2005-07-15 73.7 0 10 2012-07-15 73.4 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-15 73.5 0 2 2025-07-15 73.3 0 3 2005-07-15 72.8 1 4 2020-07-15 72.4 0 5 2026-07-15 72.2 0 - 2013-07-15 72.2 0 6 1949-07-15 72.1 0 7 1973-07-15 71.9 0 8 2010-07-15 71.8 1 9 2016-07-15 71.7 0 10 2021-07-15 71.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-15 73.8 0 2 1995-07-15 73.6 32 3 2025-07-15 73.5 0 4 2010-07-15 73.4 1 5 1966-07-15 73.2 0 6 1999-07-15 72.7 2 7 2026-07-15 72.6 0 8 2013-07-15 72.2 0 9 1994-07-15 72.0 1 10 2008-07-15 71.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-15 74.1 0 2 2010-07-15 74.0 0 3 2024-07-15 73.7 0 - 1999-07-15 73.7 0 4 1966-07-15 73.2 0 5 1994-07-15 73.1 0 6 2026-07-15 72.8 0 - 2013-07-15 72.8 0 7 2020-07-15 72.6 0 - 2008-07-15 72.6 0 8 2019-07-15 72.3 0 - 2014-07-15 72.3 0 9 2011-07-15 72.2 0 10 1993-07-15 72.0 0 Data for January 1, 2026 through July 16, 2026 #90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ESTELL MANOR COOP 23 HARRISON COOP 23 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 21 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 21 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 21 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 20 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 20 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 20 Newark Area ThreadEx 20 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 20 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Most 90° days through July 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-16 24 0 2 2026-07-16 23 1 - 2010-07-16 23 17 3 2021-07-16 21 0 - 2018-07-16 21 0 4 2012-07-16 20 19 - 2002-07-16 20 5

This could be the first event that is still a super El Niño into March using Nino 3.4

Yeah, that area is closer to the wildfires. Probably a new record for them. From the study below it had the AQI in NYC getting above 480 back in June 2023. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/worst-air-quality-world-wildfire-smog-smothers-new-york