bluewave

It’s a main feature of the pattern which has been stuck in place for the last 7 years with a brief relaxation during 20-21 and Jan 22. Very hostile Pacific pattern for snow in the I-95 corridor. Good patterns for snow produce classic KU benchmark storms which were in abundance from 2010 to 2018 with the much weaker Pacific Jet. Happened too many times for me to count from 2010 to 2018. Plus I started getting excited about the 20-21 winter during that October with my first successful use for the October MJO indicator for La Ninas. The most recent time was later in December 2021 after the highly amplified December MJO 6-7 stall that month which really pumped the Southeast ridge. But around the holidays the models started showing a legit MJO 8 for January 2022 which verified. So that was the last successful MJO 8 passage. We have had many model forecasts for phase 8 since then. But none have worked out due to interference from the WPAC warm pool. So I would like to see all the VP anomaly charts showing weakening forcing within week 1 near the Maritime Continent for the forecast to be believable.

The pattern never developed which could have produced a KU. That’s why it didn’t happen. Need the Pacific Jet to relax for storm tracks like that.

This is the actual 500mb pattern last winter on the 11 days which .20 or more of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston. Very fast extended Pacific Jet along with a Southeast ridge linking up with the Greenland block with a warm storm track through the Great Lakes. So the NYC average temperature last winter during the days with the heavier precipitation was 41° which was too warm to reach anywhere near average seasonal snowfall. Long range models consistently missed this pattern beyond 1 week out. Has nothing to due with luck or Monday morning quarterbacking. The storm track is a function of the pattern. I still think it’s possible to change things up a bit. But I am not going to make that forecast based on a week 2 or 3 model forecast. It has to show up in the short term in order to be believable. 11 day 500 mb composite DJF 24-25 when .20 of precipitation fell from Philly to Boston

The storm track pattern most of the time since 2018-2019 has been Great Lakes cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream. This has been a result of the record WPAC warmth both in the subtropics and midlatitudes with a much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet along the thermal gradient between the Siberian cold and WPAC to south of Aleutians warmth. Storm track #1 features a trough in the West and a Southeast ridge. So the low deepens crossing the Great Lakes with a warm storm track and mostly rain along the I-95 corridor from DC to Boston. Track# 2 features poor wavelength spacing in the fast Pacific flow so the storm hugs the I-78 to I-84 corridor favoring the interior regions away from the coast for the heaviest snows. Both these tracks feature too strong of a Southeast Ridge. Track #3 has a kicker low coming into Western North America in the fast Pacific flow keeping the Southern Stream suppressed and preventing a true 40/70 benchmark snowstorm track. Southeast ridge relaxes too much and the low slips to the Southeast. Even with a winter average temperature closer to the long term average last year, there was no deviation in this storm track pattern. Many times since February 2022 the long range forecast models have show big pattern changes during weeks 2 and 3. But we are yet to see a big change in this model bias. So this is why I like to temper long range expectations and wait until an actual pattern change shows up in the short term for it to be believable. RMM chart forecasts showing solid MJO 8 passages beyond 10 days out have either weakened before phase 8 due to the warm pool near the Maritime Continent or made it into 8 with lingering forcing hanging back near the Maritime Continent. So we didn’t get the true MJO 8 like we last had in January 2022. There have also been several events involving the stratosphere which haven’t panned out for snow or cold here. So this is why I don’t trust long range models to actually show pattern changes during weeks 2 and 3 since we have been through this numerous times before. But if we can actually get a shift in this pattern into the under 120 hr model forecast, then it will be something to be happy about.

We have had numerous model forecast attempts beyond 10 days to try and shift the storm tracks pattern since February 2022. But none have made to under 120 hrs on the models It’s still possible that something could eventually shift. But it won’t be believable until it shows up under 120 hrs.

Looking more like a reflective event at this point in time.

It’s better to be realistic about the model errors beyond 10 to 15 days and the frequent repeating patterns. I get it that many on here like cold and snowy weather. But you want to see the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks shift in order to be more optimistic about our snowfall prospects.

The one constant every December since 2011 from Philly to NYC Metro has been at least one 55°+ warm up between December 17th to 25th even when the long range models forecasts were cold like last year.

SSWs or wave reflection events don’t automatically mean cold and wintry conditions around our area. Plus the sample size of December SSW events since the late 80s is very small at only three years during La Nina’s .Those three didn’t really do much for us. Hopefully, we can see some improvement over those limited past early cases. Even if the RMMs eventually make it into phase 8, the VP charts still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent. Doesn’t take much convection there in concert with the gradient between Siberia and the mid latitude WPAC warm poll to enhance the Pacific Jet. The faster Pacific Jet has resulted in the dominant Great Lakes cutter, l-78 to I-84 hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks since 2018-2019 when the mid-latitude WPAC Pacific became warm. So when we have had troughs in the East during recent years, they usually got pulled in behind a departing Great Lakes cutters or hugger tracks. Then we went cold and dry for a while the Southern Stream got suppressed. Then the Southeast ridge has usually rebounded with more cutters and huggers.

Getting a clean phase 8 pattern during December is going to be a challenge with any convection lingering near the Maritime Continent.

The 5 day forecast mean has a deeper trough in the West and stronger Southeast Ridge than the typical phase 7. That’s why I used the term elements or similarities. Still no change in the dominant storm track through the Great Lakes into early December.

The EPS tends to dampen the convection near the Maritime Continent beyond day 10 too much. For some reason the GEFS tends to do better. That region near 150E will probably have more forcing showing up in future EPS runs as we get closer to early December.

There could be some MJO 7 elements in the mix for early December. But the convection lingering near the Maritime Continent may not translate into a purely 7 composite. So with more of a split forcing pattern perhaps a variation on the phase 7 theme. I agree that the phase 8s have been a big challenge since January 2022. Even when the RMM charts indicated a phase 8 verifying, lingering phase 4-6 convection didn’t lead to the desired outcome. The record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent had been altering the convective forcing and sensible weather patterns.

That is just a one day snapshot from a 360 hr run. A few days before that it has a different look. Convection lingering near the Maritime Continent will tend to stall the movement toward a more classic phase 8 which was mentioned in the post that I was replying to.

March has been one of our fastest warming months. So the long term trend of snowfall has been down. NYC did come close back in 2018 but they couldn’t match the 10”+ daily amounts from the colder era. I think March 2018 was probably the last shot that NYC had for 10”+ daily snowfall amount. As NYC has been too warm for much March snowfall since then. it’s possible in the future we can see another decent March snow, but it will probably too warm to challenge the 10”+ daily amounts from the colder era. March Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.5 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-12 2 15.7 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-08 3 13.5 1914-03-01 through 1914-03-01 4 12.5 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-03 5 10.2 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-13 6 10.0 1896-03-02 through 1896-03-02 7 9.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-22 8 8.6 1981-03-05 through 1981-03-05 9 8.2 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-21 10 7.8 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-19 11 7.6 2017-03-14 through 2017-03-14 - 7.6 1916-03-06 through 1916-03-06 12 7.5 2015-03-05 through 2015-03-05 13 7.1 1958-03-21 through 1958-03-21 14 6.9 1915-03-06 through 1915-03-06 15 6.5 2009-03-02 through 2009-03-02 - 6.5 1902-03-05 through 1902-03-05 16 6.2 1992-03-19 through 1992-03-19 - 6.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-16 17 6.0 1917-03-04 through 1917-03-04 - 6.0 1907-03-10 through 1907-03-10 - 6.0 1906-03-15 through 1906-03-15 - 6.0 1893-03-04 through 1893-03-04 - 6.0 1890-03-19 through 1890-03-19 - 6.0 1870-03-07 through 1870-03-07 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T

The RMM charts are only providing part of the picture. They are following the convection to the east of the Dateline. But we still have convection lingering near the Maritime Continent into early December. So it’s more of a split forcing pattern rather than a canonical MJO driven pattern.

I think NYC will eventually see another 4” day. Not sure when though. But the more impressive streak for NYC had been no March 10” daily snows since 1993. It’s possible that the climate has warmed too much for that record to be reached again. 1993-03-13 40 28 34.0 -7.8 31 0 2.37 10.2

We also got some record cold earlier in November 2019. Though the lows weren’t to the level of late in November 2018. The big story in November 2019 for my area back on the GSB was how late the plants were booming with the 70° warmth earlier in the month. That October had the record mid 90s warmth. Our azalea was still in full bloom that November before the three nights in the low to mid 20s. The plant never came back the following spring due to the freeze damage.

2018 and 2019 was really the last time we had any widespread significant November cold for much of the region. Lowest November temperatures across the region Monthly Data for November 2025 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 24 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 24 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 25 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 25 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 25 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 25 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 26 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 26 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 26 CT GUILFORD COOP 26 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 26 CT DANBURY COOP 27 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 27 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 27 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 27 NY ST. JAMES COOP 28 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 29 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 30 NY SYOSSET COOP 30 NJ HARRISON COOP 31 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 31 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 31 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 31 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 32 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 32 NY CENTERPORT COOP 32 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 32 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 33 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 33 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 34 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 34 Monthly Data for November 2018 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 4 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 6 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 6 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 6 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 7 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 7 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 7 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 7 CT DANBURY COOP 9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 11 NY WEST POINT COOP 11 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 11 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 12 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 12 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 13 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 13 NJ HARRISON COOP 13 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 13 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 13 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 13 CT GROTON COOP 13 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 13 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 14 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 14 NY MATTITUCK COOP 14 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 15 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 15 NY CENTERPORT COOP 15 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 15 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 15 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 15 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 16 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 17 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 17 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 17 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 19 Monthly Data for November 2025 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 23 NJ OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 23 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 24 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 24 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 24 NJ HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 24 NJ WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 25 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 25 PA MARTINS CREEK COOP 25 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 26 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 26 PA AVONDALE 2 N WBAN 27 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 27 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 27 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 27 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 27 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 27 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 27 NJ EWING 3 WNW COOP 27 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 27 NJ SCHOOLEY'S MOUNTAIN 1 SW COOP 27 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 28 DE NEWARK AG FARM COOP 28 PA HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 28 NJ MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 28 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 28 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 28 NJ TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 28 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 28 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 29 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 29 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 29 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 29 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 29 NJ BELMAR FARMINGDALE ALLAIRE AP WBAN 29 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 30 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 30 NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 30 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 30 NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 31 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 31 DE DOVER COOP 32 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 32 DE LEWES COOP 32 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 32 Monthly Data for November 2018 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 5 NJ SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 6 PA SPRINGTOWN 1 NNE COOP 7 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 7 NJ BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 7 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 8 PA LEHIGHTON 1SSW COOP 8 NJ AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 8 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 9 NJ WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 9 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 9 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 9 PA BLUE MARSH LAKE COOP 10 PA GRATERFORD 1 E COOP 10 PA SELLERSVILLE COOP 10 PA BUCKSVILLE COOP 10 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10 NJ BOONTON 1 SE COOP 10 PA ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 11 PA HERITAGE FIELD AIRPORT WBAN 11 PA NESHAMINY FALLS COOP 11 NJ PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 11 PA DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 11 PA HAMBURG COOP 12 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 12 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 13 NJ TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 13 DE WILMINGTON PORTER RES COOP 14 PA AVONDALE 2 N WBAN 14 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 14 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 14 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 14 NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 14 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 14 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 14 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 15 NJ SEABROOK FARMS COOP 15 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 15 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 15 DE WILMINGTON AIRPORT WBAN 16 NJ MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 16 NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 16 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 16 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 16 DE DOVER COOP 19 NJ MARGATE COOP 19 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 20

Yeah, you would expect the fall low so far to eventually get down into that range. Not really cold by their standards over the short period of record since 1998. They got much colder in the fall of 2018 down to -21° on 11-23-18. Time Series Summary for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY - Sep through Nov Lowest Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 2 11 2024 13 0 2023 4 0 2022 0 0 2021 -2 0 2020 3 0 2019 -9 0 2018 -21 0 2017 -3 0 2016 18 0 2015 9 0 2014 -3 2 2013 -13 0 2012 -4 0 2011 9 0 2010 2 0 2009 12 0 2008 1 0 2007 1 0 2006 11 1 2005 0 1 2004 3 0 2003 -1 1 2002 -9 0 2001 5 0 2000 -10 1 1999 -3 2 1998 6 Station Thread for Saranac Lake Area, NY Name Period in Thread 1 Saranac Lake Adirondack Regional Apt 06/01/1998 to 12/31/2024 2 Ray Brook 04/01/1978 to 05/31/1998 3 Gabriels 09/01/1966 to 03/31/1978 4 Paul Smiths 07/01/1949 to 08/31/1966 5 Gabriels 09/01/1908 to 09/30/1948 6 Paul Smiths 03/01/1903 to 08/31/1908

We have 10 days to see if places like NYC can have their first freeze of the season. Stations like HPN and ISP still haven’t had their first hard freeze at 28. Even more rural locations like FWN still haven’t dropped below 20°. So all of our stations are still in the top 5 warmest fall lows due to how warm North America has been this fall. Warmest fall lows temperatures across the region still in the top 5 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1998 36 0 2 2009 35 0 - 2006 35 0 3 2016 34 0 - 2010 34 0 - 2001 34 0 - 1963 34 0 - 1902 34 0 4 2025 33 11 - 2011 33 0 - 1985 33 0 - 1948 33 0 - 1907 33 0 5 2015 32 0 - 1983 32 0 - 1968 32 0 - 1954 32 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 33 11 - 1985 33 0 2 2016 32 0 - 2011 32 0 - 2006 32 0 3 2009 31 0 - 2001 31 0 - 1998 31 0 - 1988 31 0 - 1963 31 0 - 1923 31 0 4 2024 30 0 - 2010 30 0 - 1983 30 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 31 11 2 1983 30 0 3 2011 29 0 - 2006 29 0 4 2009 28 0 - 1985 28 0 5 2024 27 0 - 2016 27 0 - 1998 27 0 - 1980 27 0 - 1979 27 0 - 1977 27 0 - 1971 27 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2016 31 0 2 2025 29 13 - 1975 29 0 3 2024 28 0 - 2011 28 1 - 2010 28 0 - 2009 28 0 - 1998 28 19 - 1985 28 2 - 1983 28 0 4 2006 27 0 - 1999 27 14 - 1968 27 0 - 1953 27 1 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 31 14 2 1985 30 0 3 2024 27 0 - 2016 27 0 - 2006 27 3 - 1975 27 0 - 1968 27 1 - 1963 27 0 4 2011 26 0 - 1998 26 1 - 1988 26 0 - 1948 26 0 - 1913 26 0 5 2012 25 0 - 2009 25 0 - 1977 25 0 - 1965 25 0 - 1961 25 0 - 1944 25 0 - 1939 25 0 - 1902 25 1 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Sep through Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 25 11 2 2011 22 6 - 2009 22 0 - 2006 22 0 3 2024 21 0 4 2023 20 5 - 2017 20 0 - 2016 20 8 5 2021 19 0 - 2020 19 0 - 2012 19 5 - 2004 19 0 - 2001 19 1

We may not get a clean translation of any of the specific MJO 7 composite to start December since the models are showing more of a split forcing pattern. Notice the forcing lingering near the Maritime Continent at the same time there is forcing over the Western Hemisphere. So the current forecast has more of blended look between competing influences. Forcing near the Maritime Continent tends to enhance the Southeast ridge and lead to a faster Pacific Jet.

You are really lucky to be living in such a beautiful region. The stronger winds and lack of ideal radiational cooling there are also a function of the warmer air masses in nearby Canada. Since really cold Arctic air masses usually begin with strong cold air advection followed by a few nights of high pressure and calm clear nights behind the Arctic fronts leading to the great radiational cooling. We haven’t been getting this cold pattern in the Northeast with Canada so warm. The Northeast needs good cold pooling near Hudson Bay which has become more rare over time. The airport station that was established in June 1998. It’s in a uniquely cold area with excellent cold air drainage. So it can be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the village. But that microclimate is still a good proxy since it is currently experiencing its 2nd longest streak not dropping to -30 or colder. The #1 longest streak was several years ago. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= -30 for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1998-06-06 1 1103 2019-01-14 through 2022-01-20 2 1018 2023-02-05 through 2025-11-18 3 524 2000-10-31 through 2002-04-07 4 460 2007-03-08 through 2008-06-09 5 399 2011-01-25 through 2012-02-27 6 353 2016-06-30 through 2017-06-17 7 341 2004-02-21 through 2005-01-26 8 329 2012-03-01 through 2013-01-23 9 326 2013-02-21 through 2014-01-12 - 326 2010-01-12 through 2010-12-03 https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/20130218/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold Feb 18, 2013 — The village of Saranac Lake has a reputation for cold. During the winter, it's frequently the coldest spot on the North Country weather map, sometimes the coldest in the lower 48 states. Overnight or early morning temperatures in January can hit 20 and sometimes 30 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. That kind of cold is has brought the community a fair share of publicity over the years, but technically, that publicity should go to another community located about five miles outside of Saranac Lake: the hamlet of Lake Clear. Watch the nightly forecast from WPTZ weatherman Tom Messner and you'll find Saranac Lake is often the coldest spot on the map. But that's actually not Saranac Lake's temperature. The reading Messner and other forecasters are giving is recorded at the National Weather Service automated weather station at the Adirondack Regional Airport in Lake Clear. It's typically much colder there than it is in a short distance away in the village of Saranac Lake - sometimes as much as 10 to 15 degrees colder. Enterprise Sometimes the airport temperature is significantly colder than it is just a mile-and-a-half down the road in the hamlet of Lake Clear, where Bob Callaghan lives. The same morning in mid-January that the airport weather station hit 31 below, Callaghan said he had minus 21 at his house. "The thermometer in the car definitely registers colder when we get in the area of the airport," Callaghan said. "Sometimes it's 10 degrees difference." Why is it so much colder near the airport? What strange weather phenomenon is at work here? Dave Werner started asking that question a few years ago. Werner lives in Malone and is a cooperative observer for the National Weather Service. "Every day I'd compare my readings with all of upstate New York and Vermont," he said. "And it was so interesting to me that Saranac Lake [Lake Clear] was so much colder than every other place." In 2008, Werner contacted the weather service's Burlington office and got an explanation. "It's called cold air drainage," Werner said. "The bowl-shaped terrain around the Lake Clear airport is such that cold air settles or drains into the airport area, giving it significantly colder readings than are found in the village of Saranac Lake." John Goff is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Burlington. He says Lake Clear is higher up, "and it's an open area, an open kind of clear area at the top of a hill where the cool air can kind of just pool." For people who live and work in Lake Clear, the bitter cold winter temperatures brought on by this microclimate are just a fact of life. Deb Gauthier is the Lake Clear postmaster: "It was minus 31 yesterday. When I went out at lunch time it was minus 21. You don't go out with wet hair, and you bundle up. We live with it." Surprisingly, the arctic temperatures cause few headaches at the airport, according to its manager Corey Hurwitch. "Just our equipment sometimes starting up is a little more difficult in the morning," he said.

Record number of days this year and month with maximum wind gusts at or above 40 mph across the area by a wide margin due to all the storms racing by to our north. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1900&sday=1101&eday=1117&varname=max_wind_gust&w=aoa&thres=40&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Another issue is how warm Canada has been especially since May 2023. The coldest temperatures for both NYC and Saranac Lake during the 2020s occurred back on 2-4-23. While it was one the warmest winters on record across the Northeast, there was still a decent cold pool near Hudson Bay in February available for that brief Arctic outbreak. That was the only time during the 2020s that Saranac Lake dropped to -33° and NYC to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. DANNEMORA COOP -39 HIGHMARKET 2W COOP -35 Saranac Lake Area ThreadEx -33 SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP WBAN -33 WATERTOWN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -33 GOUVERNEUR 3 NW COOP -31 THERESA 4NW COOP -29 LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP -29 COLTON 2 N COOP -29 MORRISVILLE 6 SW COOP -28 MASSENA INTL AP WBAN -28 Newcomb Area ThreadEx -27 BOONVILLE 4 SSW COOP -27 NEWCOMB COOP -27 WATERTOWN COOP -27 LOWVILLE COOP -26 MALONE COOP -26 INDIAN LAKE 2SW COOP -25 GLOVERSVILLE 7NW (PECK LAKE) COOP -24 Glens Falls Area ThreadEx -24 GLENS FALLS/FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -24 SCHROON LAKE NEW YORK RAWS -23 TRENTON FALLS COOP -23 Plattsburgh Area ThreadEx -22 PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -22 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS -20 CONKLINGVILLE DAM COOP -20 OGDENSBURG 4 NE COOP -20 SHERBURNE COOP -19 BUSKIRK COOP -19 ROME GRIFFISS AIRFIELD WBAN -18 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP -17 MECKLENBURG 4SW COOP -17 COOPERSTOWN COOP -16 MEXICO 2SW COOP -16 WHITEHALL COOP -16 LANSING MANOR COOP -16 DELHI 2 SE COOP -15 CAMDEN COOP -15 SCHOHARIE COOP -14 CALLICOON CENTER COOP -14 WARSAW 6 SW COOP -13 BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP) WBAN -13 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -13 FULTON OSWEGO COUNTY AP WBAN -13 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN -13 Albany Area ThreadEx -13 Binghamton Area ThreadEx -13 Syracuse Area ThreadEx -13 ALCOVE DAM COOP -12 ITHACA CORNELL UNIV COOP -12 NORWICH COOP -12 PULASKI COOP -12 WALTON 2 COOP -12 FREEVILLE 1 NE COOP -11 BATAVIA WBAN -11 WYOMING 3W COOP -11 ITHACA 13 E WBAN -11 LIBERTY 1 NE COOP -10 OLEAN COOP -10 EAST SIDNEY COOP -10 HEMLOCK COOP -10 CARMEL 4N COOP -10 MILLBROOK 3 W WBAN -10 MONTICELLO SULLIVAN WBAN -9 ANGELICA COOP -9 AURORA RESEARCH FARM COOP -9 Oswego Area ThreadEx -9 BREWERTON LOCK 23 COOP -9 OSWEGO WBAN -9 PENN YAN AIRPORT WBAN -9 HORNELL ALMOND DAM COOP -8 ALFRED COOP -8 AUBURN COOP -8 FREDERICK DOUGLASS GREATER ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -8 HONEOYE COOP -8 Rochester Area ThreadEx -8 MOHONK LAKE COOP -7 GENEVA RESEARCH FARM COOP -7 CANANDAIGUA 3 S COOP -7 AVON COOP -7 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx -7 GENESEE CO ICAO -7 WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -7 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -7 WHITNEY POINT DAM COOP -6 CORNING COOP -6 ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP WBAN -6 LITTLE VALLEY COOP -6 FRANKLINVILLE COOP -6 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS -6 MOUNT MORRIS 2W COOP -6 VICTOR 2NW COOP -6 COLDEN 1W COOP -6 ELMIRA COOP -5 DANSVILLE COOP -5 WELLSVILLE COOP -5 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS -5 WALES COOP -5 MACEDON LOCK E30 COOP -5 SODUS 1W COOP -5 BROCKPORT COOP -5 FULTON COOP -5 WAVERLY COOP -5 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 SHRUB OAK COOP -4 PORT JERVIS COOP -4 MATTITUCK COOP -4 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP -4 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CATTARAUGUS 3W COOP -3 WEST POINT COOP -2 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 ALBION COOP -2 PERRYSBURG COOP -2 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 ALLEGANY STATE PARK COOP -1 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 BUFFALO NIAGARA INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR WBAN 0 NORTH TONAWANDA COOP 0 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 Buffalo Area ThreadEx 0 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3