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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow If July ended today, it would tie with 1936 as the warmest July (and month) on record for the Contiguous U.S. Looking at the forecast for the rest of the month, I suspect we will not quite break the 1936 record. 1:17 PM · Jul 22, 2026 Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow Map showing how many months so far in 2026 (Thru July 17th) each of the 385 "ThreadEx" stations have set or tied a monthly record high or low temperature record. So far, the totals are: 147 months with a new (set/tie) record high and 16 with a new (set/tie) record low (no duplicates). 9:26 PM · Jul 18, 2026
  2. bluewave
    Still have a ways to go to reverse this long term drought. Some areas saw small improvement. But the heaviest downpours were more localized which is common with convection.
  3. bluewave
    An interesting question is why the recent 2023 developing super El Niño was able to break from the warmer 2020s -PDO/+AMO summer atmospheric mid-latitude pattern and this one in 2026 hasn’t so far? We’ll have to just wait and see how things go heading into the fall and winter. Since a lingering -PDO atmospheric pattern could potentially alter the state of the Aleutian low and possibly even where the maximum STJ precipitation zones set up.
  4. bluewave
    The -PDO/+AMO atmospheric pattern is the dominant player this summer so far across the CONUS.
  5. bluewave
    The CONUS didn’t get the memo that it’s supposed to be having a cooler super El Niño summer. We knew something was going to be different with the record heat that began to emerge back in May. What if anything this says about the rest of the event remains to be seen.
  6. bluewave
    Yeah, I have posted several times on this. Recent studies have found the cold blob has been more a result of stronger winds than related to the AMOC. But it’s possible the +NAO could be a result of other circulation changes from the warming that the climate models haven’t become advanced enough to detect. Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social · 8mo Natural variability, in low frequency states of atmospheric circulation, is becoming increasingly likely as the main explanation for the North Atlantic warming hole. Sang-Ki Lee @sklee621.bsky.social · 8mo The Atlantic's warming hole is not a sign of the AMOC weakening, a new study suggests ocean2climate.org/2025/11/12/t... The Atlantic’s ‘Warming Hole’ Isn’t What You Think: 5 Surprising Truths From New Climate Research This blog post and the “Deep Drive” podcast on a new paper “Atmosphere-driven processes in shaping long-term climate variability in Greenland and the broader subpolar North Atlant… ocean2climate.org 1
  7. bluewave
    I had some posts a while back that focused on the temperatures during the days that .25 of an inch or more of precipitation fell in NYC. No surprise the average temperatures on those days were only cold enough for 2 out of the last 7 winters during 2020s to make it to average to above average snowfall. This is a function of both storm track and warming temperatures. The colder storm track day seasons were in 2020-2021 and 2025-2026. 2021-2022 made the list from ACY to ISP due to January 2022 being such an outstanding month for storms just east of the benchmark. So the batting average at ISP this decade is a little better at 3 out of 7 years reaching average to above average snowfall. This is a departure from the 2010s when we managed to have average to above average seasonal snowfall even during some of the warmest winters like 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Those winters featured cold storm tracks. Your Dave Kingman reference was a good one when I mentioned how we have become an all or nothing type snowfall climate around NYC Metro since the 1990s. Either big home runs or strikeouts. Very few seasons in the middle near average anymore these days relative to pre 1990s.
  8. bluewave
    The extreme Arctic warmth during recent summers has been focused more on the Atlantic side. This has left the Pacific sector under relatively better conditions. The circulation shift since 2013 has allowed the September average extent to average in the 4.1 to 4.9 million sq km range.
  9. bluewave
    The next potential record breaking 600 DM ridge amplification will be much further west over the Rockies next week than the recent one over the Upper Midwest. That’s good news for our part of the CONUS. Most summers since 2010 with 100° heat in June and July for our area remained under 100° in August. Hope that recent pattern continues. Still not an El Niño-like pattern but an improvement for the Northeast.
  10. bluewave
    Boston just had their warmest June 1st to July 16th. Significantly warmer than any other developing super El Niño. So an unusually strong mid-latitude or subtropical ridge response for such a strong El Niño. This year was +5.5° above the mean of the previous 5 early summer average. Developing super El Niño June 1st to July 16th average temperatures 2026….73.9° 2023….68.9° 2015…..67.3° 1997…..70.5° 1982….66.9° 1972….68.2°
  11. bluewave
    The weak dipole pattern has resulted in some parts of the Pacific side having their slowest melt since 1994. This pressure reversal since 2013 has allowed the 2012 low extent record to stand to this day. Since 2012 had big Pacific side melt with record dipole pattern. Some of the climate models actually forecast this weaker dipole pattern with the record mid-latitude heatwaves that we have been experiencing. The AMS presentation from 2014 below is worth a viewing when you have some free time. It’s essentially the Northern Hemisphere summer pattern that we have experienced since 2015. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Sea ice is very slowly melting the Chukchi Sea, but only slowly. Ice extent as of July 18 is well above last year and is the highest for the date since 1994(!) in NSIDC data. Sea ice in the Beaufort Sea has also been slow to melt but is now slightly lower than mid-July 2025. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 2:01 PM · Jul 19, 2026
  12. bluewave
    The good news is that the next potential 600 DM ridge will be further west than last week.
  13. bluewave
    This was my heaviest rainfall in an hour since moving up to CT. Picked up 3.18 yesterday from around 1:50 to 2:50 PM. The daily total in my area was 3.72.
  14. bluewave
    Pretty wild how we have had elements of the summer 2011 weather pattern against the backdrop of such an extreme developing El Nino. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18
  15. bluewave
    Some extreme effects from this record developing El Nino showing up in South America.
  16. bluewave
    2023-2024 wasn’t even close in your area or mine from the seasonal models. What difference does it matter if they are warm or too cold? An incorrect forecast is an incorrect forecast if you are interested in trying to figure out your sensible weather. I understand some posters like yourself enjoy posing forecasts that they would personally like to see. Nothing wrong with that. But wouldn’t you like to actually post a model run that has a chance of being correct rather than what you want it to show? I mostly post longer range ENSO plumes forecasts and general SST forecasts from the seasonal models where they can sometimes have more skill. If I post a temperature or 500 mb forecast, it’s mostly to see where the model might be or has made an error in the past. I also see several posters mention that they are only interested in their own backyard or local area. That’s OK also. But if you want to understand how to find the potential range of outcomes you need to have a broader understanding of how your area is related to the greater patterns in the region, continent, and planet. It just so happens that as the world warms, the weather records count is more heavily skewed toward warmth than cold. So the models just have more opportunities to be wrong about the magnitude of the warmth. And yes they do miss the cold from time to time also. But since cold is less frequent these days, the opportunities are less. In my region we have had over 50 top 10 warmest months since 2010 and only one top 10 coldest. Many most of those top ten warmest months weren’t forecast by the longer range climate models. The one top 10 coldest month during February 2015 wasn’t forecast either. We posted many of the incorrect model forecasts at the time of how the long range weeklies missed the pattern change to colder in February. I remember there were literally dozens of posts about how the weeklies missed the record cold in February from the long range. I can guarantee you that I we had a climate getting colder rather than warmer, I would post maps of the models missing the cold long range. There would probably be some posters that would say why I am I so focused on the models missing the cold and I only am interested in the cold.
  17. bluewave
    Yeah, the August average for the 2020s has been 10 days reaching 90°. We’ll have to see where the main ridge sets up and the what the wettest areas are. One of the warmest June 1st to July 16th periods along the East Coast. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 1 2 8 15 10 2 0 35 2026 2 4 8 6 M M M 20 2025 0 0 10 20 8 1 0 39 2024 0 1 11 14 7 0 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31
  18. bluewave
    That wasn’t a good forecast either for what verified. Still much too cool from upper Midwest into the Northeast. You seem to be taking my model criticism personally in some regard by the tone of your responses. It isn’t my intention to put you on the defensive in any way. It would be great if all the seasonal model forecasts were as good as the JMA for your best winter in 2013-2014. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/tccnews34.pdf https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php
  19. bluewave
    This will be a rare occasion that a dense smoke plume prevented 100°+ heat and higher departures.
  20. bluewave
    94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.
  21. bluewave
    I am wondering if the reason that the standard 2020s summer -PDO/+AMO atmospheric state pattern has dominated the first half of summer rather than an El Niño type is due to the standing wave centered more in the Southern Hemisphere? El Niño has garnered a lot of attention, and this looks to be a large event for the reminder of the year. El Niño is related to cooler, wetter than normal summers in the US while La Niña warmer drier summers. I think the summer of 1988 cemented the impression that La Niñas support continental heat domes, heat and drought for the US. But looking at the temperature pattern across the US this summer so far it seems to be just the pattern that recent summers have settled in to regardless of the phase of ENSO. So far, in my opinion it is hard to observe the impact of El Niño on US weather just yet.
  22. bluewave
    Who said anything about tropical convection? My reply was strictly in regard to how the forecast you posted compared to April 1998.
  23. bluewave
    My statement was correct. The winter of 2025-2026 was the 2nd warmest on record for the CONUS. While it’s difficult to find a perfect match, the forecasts were close to a 1994-1995 outcome which was the 12th warmest winter for the CONUS. So for the CONUS the seasonal forecasts were too cold due to the extreme nature of the warmth out West. I kept the scales in (C )for a direct comparison to the ECMWF forecast. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/3/2/1895-2026 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/03/we-just-had-the-second-warmest-winter-in-u-s-history-despite-icy-blasts/ Rankings and departures out West were much higher than the East Verification in (C)
  24. bluewave
    The one difference from that forecast SST chart is how much warmer all the ocean basins are forecast to be than April 1998.
  25. bluewave
    It’s as if we are starting to see some of the higher end El Niños that weren’t forecast to repeat only a few years apart until later in this century. But the strength of the La Ninas hasn’t been really increasing. So this goes to show how much work we need to do on more accurate climate modeling. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0
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