bluewave

Good signal from the 6z Euro for at least a 6-8” floor around NYC and LI before any sleet potential later Sunday using conservative 10-1 ratios which could be on the low side.

They don’t have the precipitation type and rate for the ECMWF-AIFS like they do for the other models on Pivitol.

Yeah, they don’t have p-types for that model. So we just have to estimate the p-types from the thickness values and compare to the Euro which has p-types. My guess is that we are going to get a very heavy front end thump on Sunday with at least 6-8” potential before any mixing. This has been the case with past SWFEs. We just have to watch the Southeast ridge next few days in the forecasts to refine the amounts.

It’s interesting how our coldest low temperatures during the 2010s and 2020s were during our warmest winters. The early February 2023 cold was in a sea of warm. Same story with the only below 0° in NYC since 1994 during the 2015-2016 winter. It’s funny that the back to back cold winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 couldn’t produce a below 0° reading in NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb lowest temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 16 38 2024-2025 10 0 2023-2024 17 0 2022-2023 3 0 2021-2022 10 0 2020-2021 14 0 2019-2020 14 0 2018-2019 2 0 2017-2018 5 0 2016-2017 14 0 2015-2016 -1 0 2014-2015 2 0 2013-2014 4 0 Monthly Data for February 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT DANBURY COOP -7 CT GROTON COOP -6 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NY MATTITUCK COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY SYOSSET COOP 2 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 Monthly Data for February 2016 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY CARMEL 4N COOP -13 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP -12 CT SAUGATUCK RESERVOIR COOP -10 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -10 CT DANBURY COOP -10 CT ANSONIA 1 NW COOP -9 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP -9 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN -9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -9 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -8 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -8 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -8 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -8 CT GROTON COOP -8 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP -8 NY WEST POINT COOP -7 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -7 CT TRUMBULL COOP -7 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -6 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -6 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -5 NY MATTITUCK COOP -5 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP -5 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP -5 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP -4 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP -3 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -3 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP -3 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP -3 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -3 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN -2 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN -2 NY CENTERPORT COOP -2 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP -1 NY WEST NYACK COOP -1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN -1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN -1 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0 NJ CRANFORD COOP 0 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 0 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 0 NJ HARRISON COOP 0

It looks like that model is counting mixed precip as snow as the 540 line is north of us during Sunday afternoon like the regular Euro.

Looks like most of us should see at least 6” before any mixing potential Sunday with the stronger Southeast ridge and weaker 50/50 low than originally forecast. New run Old run

This December was a more amplified version of 1958 and 1980. Both years featured very strong ridges in the -WPO Bering Sea and Western U.S. regions. But this December was more +EPO -PNA.

The unusually early SSW in late November has been a really big player this winter so far.

The -20° to -33° lows were fairly widespread across your region during the historic January 1994 Arctic outbreak. Monthly Data for January 1994 for Sussex County, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP -29 NEWTON COOP -26 SUSSEX 8 NNW COOP -20 HIGH POINT PARK COOP -18 Monthly Data for January 1994 for Pike County, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HAWLEY 1 E COOP -31 Monthly Data for January 1994 for Wayne County, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PLEASANT MOUNT 1 W COOP -22 Monthly Data for January 1994 for Orange County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. WALDEN 1 ESE COOP -27 MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP -23 Monthly Data for January 1994 for Sullivan County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LIBERTY 1 NE COOP -20 Monthly Data for January 1994 for Ulster County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SLIDE MOUNTAIN COOP -21 Monthly Data for January 1994 for Dutchess County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. RHINEBECK 4SE COOP -33 MILLBROOK COOP -29 STORMVILLE COOP -22 POUGHKEEPSIE COOP -20

What usually happens with these is more than 90% of the precipitation falls as snow before we go to drizzle or dry slot.

Where you there for the -29° in January 1994? Time Series Summary for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - Dec through Feb Lowest Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993-1994 -29 36 2 1960-1961 -25 0 3 1911-1912 -24 3 4 1966-1967 -23 0 5 1980-1981 -22 0 - 1967-1968 -22 2 7 1983-1984 -21 1 8 1947-1948 -20 0 - 1942-1943 -20 0

Lowest December extent on record just below 2016. https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/ringing-new-year-warm-arctic Arctic sea ice extent for December averaged 11.42 million square kilometers (4.41 million square miles), the lowest extent in the satellite record for the month (Figure 1a). This comes on the heels of the third lowest extent for the month in November 2024 (Figure 1b). The December extent was 40,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month set in 2016, and 1.42 million square kilometers (548,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average. Including 2024, the downward linear trend in Arctic sea ice extent for December is 44,000 square kilometers (17,000 square miles) per year, or 3.4 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. Based on the linear trend, since 1979, December has lost 1.98 million square kilometers (764,000 square miles) of sea ice, which is equivalent to three times the size of Texas.

NYC is one of the most photogenic spots when it snows.

Hard to believe it’s been 10 years already. https://iso.500px.com/the-story-behind-the-most-viral-photo-from-blizzard2016/

My guess is that NYC will be closer to 10° this weekend with the 0° readings in the outlying colder areas similar to the NDFD.

The raw Euro 2m Ts have been running too cold around NYC. It forecast around 11° this morning in NYC. The current temperature is 17°. The raw GFS has been doing better than the Euro. So my guess is that the forecast Euro lows especially around the urban areas from EWR to NYC will be too cold coming up. So closer to 10° this weekend in NYC vs near 0° on the Euro. For some reason the model thinks that NYC should have strong radiational cooling when there is snowcover. We saw this in the past from the OP Euro 2m Ts showing -5° to -10° several years back in. NYC with snow on the ground. But outlying areas with the best radiational cooling will probably be closer to the mark than the urban areas forecast.

Parts of Fairfield county have been doing better than New Haven county this year so far. This weekend I picked up .5 early Saturday. Then another 1” Sunday morning. The evening round gave me 1.5”. Marginal temperatures for accumulation and variable rates can result in differences from one county to another. So some of the snow was lost to melting. My main events before this weekend were 3.5” and 5.5” and 1.0” for 10.0”. This weekend brought me up to 13.0” on the season.

The EC-AIFS single skill data available online is the leader through 120 hrs. I have seen the EPS-AIFS data through day 10 and it slightly edges out the regular EPS. But it’s still close. I have noticed the single EC-AIFS show volatility beyond 120 hrs here like the other guidance in regard to storm tracks. This is one situation that we actually want a stronger Southeast ridge so the best overrunning occurs closer to our area. But the storm is still modeled beyond the best 120hr range so we are just going to have to take a wait and see approach. The Euro following the upgrade around 2014 had been too suppressed with East Coast storm systems. With the GFS becoming very volatile since its upgrade in 2019. EC-AIFS better Southeast ridge Regular Euro weaker Southeast ridge.

I picked up 3” just east of KHVN this weekend for a seasonal total so far of 13.0”.

The EC-AIFS looks like it had the best forecast for today from earlier this week between the overamplified GFS and too suppressed Euro.

The story going back to November has been the long range models trying to weaken the ridge out West only to correct stronger the closer in time we got to forecast time. The ridge was able to shift out into the Plains for the first half of January. Now the models want to bring it back West again later in January. There have been plenty of comments that we don’t usually see this with a -PDO. Maybe this ridge is somehow related to the big +NPM spike back in the fall with the marine heatwave off the West Coast. Plus this -PDO since 2018-2019 has been more defined by the WPAC warm pool to the East of Japan and south of Aleutians than the cold pool off the West Coast like we used to get with -PDOs prior to the last decade.

At least according to Ryan’s stats the EC-AIFS is the new forecast leader through 120 hrs.

I think the key next week will be how deep a trough we can get out West. All winter long the models have been too aggressive in digging those troughs beyond 168 hrs. We actually need the Southeast ridge to put up some resistance so the overrunning doesn’t get suppressed. The EPS doesn’t dig as much energy into the west so it’s less amped up with the overrunning in the East. It’s been a while since once of these overrunning set ups produced more than 4” from EWR to ISP. But we saw how back in December we finally got two clippers to work out for 4”+. Maybe it’s possible we can finally get a decent overrunning event here. But it’s still way too early to know for sure exactly where the nest overrunning zone sets up. We really want to get to within the 120hr mark for the details to come into clearer focus. At least the potential is there. Whether the potential gets realized is another story. EPS diggs less energy west so overrunning is further south than GEFS

The Euro and EPS have done a better job with the Northern Stream this winter than the other guidance. All the Northern Stream kickers have prevented the Southern Stream disturbances from developing into KU heavy benchmark coastal snowstorm tracks. December was a unique case where we were able to get a few moderately snowy clippers tracking to our south. But this month so far we lost the record -WPO which combined with the -NAO for those two favorable tracks.

The record breaking Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet continues to be a big story.