bluewave

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 104.0 1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 2 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 104.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 103.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 103.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 - 103.0 1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03 5 102.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

The 105° at Newark was the 2nd warmest temperature on record at the station. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 through 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 4 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2021-06-30 through 2021-06-30 - 103.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 103.0 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-07 - 103.0 1954-07-31 through 1954-07-31 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 - 103.0 1911-07-03 through 1911-07-03 - 103.0 1901-07-02 through 1901-07-02

Yeah, we have only really had 6 years reaching 103°+ by July 4th. So the sample size is pretty small. But at least none of the previous years made it above 102° the rest of the summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures June 1st through July 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1966-07-04 105 0 - 1949-07-04 105 0 2025-07-04 103 0 - 2021-07-04 103 0 - 1911-07-04 103 0 - 1901-07-04 103 0 Maximum temperature after July 4th 1966….100° 1949….102° 2025…101° 2021….99° 1911…..102° 1901…..95°

One of the few times that a forecast for stalled out backdoor cold front with a wave of low pressure by next Monday is a welcome sight.

I was walking along the shore one day back in Long Beach and one of them flew very low right over the beach at Pacific BLVD. They come up on your position silently and you only hear the engine roar once they are past. It was a pretty wild experience even compared to all the beach parties back in those days.

Busy day at the shore with the lifeguards having to temporarily close the ocean to swimming where the sharks are making appearances.

105° now at Corona still north of the seabreeze.

The South Shore beaches in the upper 70s are the place to be on days like these. FW3143 West Gilgo Observation Time: 07/02/26 @ 14:05 EDT 18:05 UTC Elevation: 6 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 78 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 80 % Wind: SE at 10 MPH Peak Gust: 15 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 78 °F Min Temperature: 69 °F Max RH: 91 % Min RH: 80 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 66 °F Max Gust: 29 MPH

The CONUS finally surpassed March 2012 in 2026. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2026

New Brunswick 103°. ▼ New Brunswick NJ 2026-07-02 13:50 Mesonet 103 70

Corona at 104° and Glendale/Maspeth 103°.

It does happen occasionally and probably will again one of these years. But it’s a very low probability of success forecast any given year since 1993-1994. Only 4 seasons fell in this range from 1993-1994 to 2025-2026 vs 18 seasons from 1960-1961 to 1992-1993. NYC used to be clustered much closer to the middle 19-30 range in the previous 33 year period. So it was a good bet that you would be correct more often than in recent years calling for seasonal snowfall closer to the mid range or average of the distribution. These days most years are skewed toward the extreme ends of well above or well below average snowfall. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 19-30”seasons bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 0.0 T 7.2 13.9 22.3 T 0.0 43.4 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2 1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7

As long as you don’t forecast an average snowfall season around NYC Metro you should do OK.

Our seasonal snowfall since 1993-1994 around NYC Metro has shifted to all or nothing. Meaning nearly all the seasons have been well above or well below average. Very few fall in the middle anymore like they used to prior to the last 30 years. So our decadal average snowfall has been determined which category in the all or nothing game wins out. Long term since the 1800s snowfall has been declining as winters and springs get warmer.

Lefferts/South Ozone Park now at 100.

December 2000 was cold and snowy in NYC. The real outlier years for lack of snow and warmth were 2001 and 2006. The December 11 year snowfall average from 2000-2010 was 8.9” in NYC which was the best since the 1940s. December 1989 was a whole different story for extreme cold. It was more like a typical LIA winter than anything we have ever seen in modern times. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917 25.0 0 - 1876 25.0 0 2 1989 25.9 0 3 1880 26.4 0 4 1872 26.7 0 5 1926 28.9 0 6 1871 29.0 0 7 1958 29.3 0 8 1955 29.7 0 - 1910 29.7 0 - 1886 29.7 0 9 1976 29.9 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1989 7.5 0 2 1917 12.2 0 3 1963 12.9 0 4 1958 13.0 0 5 1970 14.3 0 6 1980 15.0 0 7 1910 15.9 0 8 1904 16.0 0 9 1933 16.2 0 10 1976 16.3 0

They just set the new all-time warmest 10am temperature at the station before the sea breeze arrives. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=all&sday=0702&eday=1231&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Newark is currently 3° cooler at 10am. SXUS51 KOKX 021357 OSOOKX New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2026 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park SUNNY 91 71 51 W6 30.02S HX 97 LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 90 69 50 NW10 29.98R HX 94 Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 96 69 41 NW10 29.99R HX 102 Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 95 69 42 W9 29.99S HX 100 Teterboro Arpt SUNNY 93 71 48 VRB6 29.98S HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 90 70 51 NW7 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 91 68 46 N10 N/A HX 95 Breezy Point N/A 82 N/A N/A W7 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 91 68 46 N8 N/A HX 95 Staten Island N/A 93 70 46 NW5 N/A HX 99

2012 had record May into June early melt ponding with the strong AD and AO blocking continuing through July. Then came the record early August storm leading to the steepest sea ice decline ever during the first half of August. No season since then has been able to put together those three factors. 2020 came the closest with impressive early melt ponding and the strongest AD and AO blocking since 2012. But the lack of a major storm in August and relaxing blocking as the month progressed allowed 2020 to finish just behind 2012. This season so far with lower pressures and colder temperatures from the late spring into early summer over the CAB is the opposite of 2020. So my guess is that as we head into early August 2012 will remain the leader. The 2007-2012 era was unique in that it featured consistent AD and AO blocking with plenty of May and June melt ponding. This quickly reversed in 2013 and continues to this day. The one thing we can say is that the historic Arctic sea ice thickness decline due to the loss from 2007-2012 of older ice has not reversed even with the more favorable summer conditions for retention since 2013. This has resulted in most of the seasons finishing in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range. The finishes in the 6s and 7s haven’t been seen since the early 2000s. 2012 and 2020 were the only seasons to finish below 4million sq km.

Corona, Ozone Park, Brownsville, and Astoria already at 90°. https://nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona Temp: 90°F 3h Precip: --

We saw something similar with December starting in 2011 following the colder 2000-2010 period.

March has seen the most extreme decadal shift to warmer for any month during the 2020s vs the 2010s.

Impressive to see HPN at 80° at 6am. White Plains CLEAR 80 75 84 NW5

Tomorrow looks like a good Ambrose Jet day with the record heat west of the sea breeze front.

The interesting thing is how much of a La Niña-like influence we are currently getting with the record warm pool from the IO over to the Maritime Continent and ENSO regions. Sure we are seeing the development of the El Nino standing wave which is expected. But as the forcing shifts back west of there, we keep getting these Southeast ridge amplifications with record heat which are more La Niña-like. So much more of an overlapping influence of the multiple forcing zones. Now this has a few potential ramifications going forward. First, we would expect the El Niño standing wave to get stronger as time progresses as the record ENSO SSTs increase. Second, the record mid-latitude SSTs could also carry the Niña-like signal for more interactions going forward. So a more active Southeast ridge pattern to go along with the Nino-ridge response further north over North America. This winter will present a good real time test of the new RONI scale. If the RONI can set records along with the expected ONI ones, then we can see if the scale will be valid by what the atmospheric response looks like. If the Aleutian low and low in the south to Mid-Atlantic is weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño like in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, then it may just be a new character of super El Niños and not related to RONI. In this case it would point out that the RONI may not be a valuable tool in such high end super El Niño events. But more for marginal La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool is more significant than the ENSO SSTs. Since we have seen the ridges getting stronger than the troughs regardless of the ENSO phase.