bluewave

Several of the biggest human migration stories since 2010 have a MMGW component as a contributing factor. A major trigger for the refugee crisis and migration into Europe was a crop failure caused by MMGW in the Middle East earlier in the last decade. Same for the wave of migration north from Central America into the U.S. following MMGW crop failures over the last decade. When those stressors combined with the background issues of extreme poverty they tipped the balance to mass migrations to escape those conditions. Within the U.S. some parts of the country with extreme hurricane activity over the last decade due to record SSTs leading to the record rapid intensification of hurricanes have seen a steep increase in homeowners insurance. So many have gotten priced out of those markets. Same across the Western U.S. where drought and wildfire activity have made some spots uninsurable leading to people exiting these regions. The good news is that we have sophisticated weather warning systems here to help save lives. But less developed parts of the world with increasing extremes haven’t been as lucky since they lack the warning systems we have. Parts of the Southeast U.S. have experienced rapid sea level rise since the 1990s combined with subsidence and groundwater pumping leading to saltwater intrusion. So several new high rises have been sinking and older structures have been having issues salt water intrusion into their foundations. We hope that the fragile WAIS will take hundreds of years to slowly melt. But they recently discovered that in past ice ages there were rapid melt episodes where significant sea level rise occurred in just a few decades. Sea level rise following past ice ages wasn’t that big of a deal since the world wasn’t covered by coastal megacities like we have today. So an unexpected rapid sea level rise in any future decades due to our incomplete understanding of ice sheet dynamics would trigger a wave of migrations which would make the migrations since 2010 look tiny in comparison. Plus nearly all of the time when we pass critical climate thresholds we don’t know we have crossed into a new regime until it has already occurred. While the earth is a very resilient system, we really don’t understand how making these rapid alterations to the climate system will fully play out. Ecosystems are delicately balanced and what seems like a small change scan have a a much bigger impact than we understand. This whole climate experiment we have been running reminds me a bit of the great song by Pink Floyd.

I think it’s more a function of human nature and our evolution that the warming planet doesn’t really get as much attention as other issues do. We evolved during ice ages that were tremendously challenging to just survive without the modern amenities we have today. So historically cold has been more of a concern than it being too warm. Most of the migration within the United States is from colder locations to the warmer sunbelt locations from Arizona to Texas and Florida. So it’s natural when we have a very cold 16 day period for most of the attention to be focused on cold since we have normalized all the record warmth in recent years. The cold stands out much more even though the magnitude, duration, and geographic footprint has been getting smaller over time. I also believe on a greater level most people outside this forum don’t like the cold and snow during winter. But this misses the long term challenges of the destabilizing effects of more extreme weather leading to migration shifts from areas which become difficult to survive in.

Even with the big warm up across North America the next few weeks, the Northeast is still only getting back closer to average.

Great charts showing how much smaller the geographic footprint and magnitude of these Arctic arctic outbreaks have become relative to the areas of record warmth. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/uspa/warm-cold/0 Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4,

This has been one of our driest winters so far since 1991 along with last winter. Driest 12-1 to 2-11 periods since 1991 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.28 0 2 1992-02-11 5.01 0 3 2026-02-11 5.41 1 4 2007-02-11 5.90 0 5 2025-02-11 6.04 0 6 2022-02-11 6.47 0 7 2000-02-11 6.49 0 8 2001-02-11 6.73 0 9 2018-02-11 7.44 0 10 2003-02-11 7.49 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.72 0 2 2007-02-11 6.01 0 3 1992-02-11 6.06 0 4 2026-02-11 6.16 0 5 2025-02-11 6.38 0 6 2000-02-11 6.56 0 7 2022-02-11 7.04 0 8 2001-02-11 7.08 0 9 2003-02-11 7.10 0 10 2012-02-11 7.35 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.92 0 2 2012-02-11 5.77 0 3 2000-02-11 5.95 0 4 2026-02-11 6.42 0 5 2007-02-11 6.53 0 6 2005-02-11 7.01 0 7 1995-02-11 7.10 0 8 1992-02-11 7.15 0 9 2001-02-11 7.41 0 10 2021-02-11 7.65 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 4.28 0 2 2000-02-11 4.57 0 3 2026-02-11 5.82 0 4 2001-02-11 5.90 0 5 1992-02-11 6.28 0 6 2022-02-11 6.60 0 7 1991-02-11 6.68 0 8 2012-02-11 6.77 0 9 2003-02-11 6.98 0 10 1993-02-11 7.00 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 5.13 0 2 2007-02-11 5.59 0 3 1992-02-11 5.95 0 4 2025-02-11 6.12 0 5 2026-02-11 6.42 0 6 2000-02-11 6.47 0 7 2018-02-11 7.10 0 8 1995-02-11 7.33 0 9 2022-02-11 7.36 0 10 2003-02-11 8.38 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2021-02-11 3.47 7 2 2002-02-11 3.58 0 3 2026-02-11 3.76 0 4 2022-02-11 4.66 0 5 2007-02-11 4.84 0 6 2025-02-11 5.17 0 7 2020-02-11 5.25 2 8 2017-02-11 5.35 0 9 2011-02-11 5.81 0 10 2003-02-11 6.02 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002-02-11 3.66 0 2 2026-02-11 4.42 0 3 2007-02-11 4.74 0 4 2022-02-11 4.88 0 5 2021-02-11 5.09 0 6 2025-02-11 5.49 0 7 2016-02-11 5.79 0 8 2011-02-11 5.83 0 9 2017-02-11 5.88 0 10 2010-02-11 5.96 0

That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 2 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 3 12.0 1924-04-02 0 4 9.5 1854-04-17 0 5 8.0 1850-04-06 0 - 8.0 1850-04-05 0 6 7.0 1916-04-09 0 7 6.0 1862-04-09 0 8 5.5 1896-04-08 0 - 5.5 1896-04-07 0 9 5.2 1938-04-07 0 10 5.0 2018-04-03 0 - 5.0 2018-04-02 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1923 13 0 2 1982 16 0 3 1857 17 0 4 1856 20 0 5 1874 21 0 - 1868 21 0 - 1855 21 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 - 1857 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 0 4 1919 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 - 1868 34 0 5 1943 35 0 - 1879 35 0 - 1875 35 0

The Google Deep Mind has pulled ahead of the National Hurricane Center. https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/11/googles-new-weather-model-impressed-during-its-first-hurricane-season/

The EC AIFS and EPS AIFS are now the two highest scoring models.

That late March 2018 snowstorm back on the South Shore was one of my late season favorites. It was really gorgeous when the sun first came out and all the wet snow was started falling from the trees. My all-time late season favorite was the April 6th, 1982 blizzard. Was my only time experiencing afternoon temperatures in the 20s and blizzard conditions in April. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After March 20th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2026-02-10 18.4 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-22 0 17.0 1967-03-21 through 1967-03-22 0 16.0 1982-04-06 through 1982-04-07 0 - 16.0 1982-04-05 through 1982-04-06 0 15.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-23 0 14.9 2018-03-20 through 2018-03-21 0 8.5 1996-04-09 through 1996-04-10 0 8.0 1974-03-29 through 1974-03-30 0 - 8.0 1974-03-28 through 1974-03-29 0 6.0 1984-03-28 through 1984-03-29 0

Newark ends its longest under 40° day streak since 2004. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 38 1866-12-25 through 1867-01-31 2 37 1878-12-16 through 1879-01-21 3 35 1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08 - 35 1874-12-30 through 1875-02-02 4 33 1876-12-14 through 1877-01-15 5 29 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-24 6 28 1985-01-15 through 1985-02-11 - 28 1881-01-11 through 1881-02-07 - 28 1862-01-10 through 1862-02-06 7 27 1903-12-26 through 1904-01-21 8 26 1902-01-28 through 1902-02-22 - 26 1901-01-23 through 1901-02-17 - 26 1880-12-15 through 1881-01-09 9 25 1920-01-02 through 1920-01-26 - 25 1855-12-25 through 1856-01-18 10 23 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14 - 23 1905-01-21 through 1905-02-12 11 22 1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15 - 22 1904-12-01 through 1904-12-22 - 22 1856-01-20 through 1856-02-10 12 21 2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06 - 21 1948-01-22 through 1948-02-11 - 21 1899-01-27 through 1899-02-16 - 21 1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16 - 21 1893-01-03 through 1893-01-23 - 21 1882-12-28 through 1883-01-17 13 20 2004-01-14 through 2004-02-02 - 20 1976-12-21 through 1977-01-09 - 20 1940-01-16 through 1940-02-04 - 20 1888-01-14 through 1888-02-02 - 20 1846-02-12 through 1846-03-03 14 19 2026-01-23 through 2026-02-10 - 19 2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01 - 19 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18 - 19 1966-01-22 through 1966-02-09 - 19 1939-12-26 through 1940-01-13 - 19 1886-12-25 through 1887-01-12

Places like Islip are right at their long term average snowfall since 1963-1964. This is a big win in my book. It has been very challenging to get near or above average seasonal snowfall since 2018-2019. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.5 4.5 9.2 9.1 4.8 0.7 28.7 2025-2026 0.0 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.7 6.9 0.0 0.0 11.7 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 10.7 2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 9.0 2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 36.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 58.8 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2002-2003 0.0 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 T T 0.0 3.7 2000-2001 T 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 T 9.0 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 9.1 T 19.4 1997-1998 0.0 T 1.0 T T 1.6 T 2.6 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 12.4 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 1994-1995 0.0 T T T 5.1 T 0.0 5.1 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.3 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 37.1 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 28.6 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 13.8 1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 19.0 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 26.9 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 27.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1972-1973 T 0.0 T 1.5 3.0 T T 4.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.1 12.5 1.0 T 15.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 18.9 1969-1970 0.0 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 3.0 T 19.5 11.0 0.0 33.5 1967-1968 0.0 2.5 5.0 9.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 22.6 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.0 19.5 21.7 T 50.8 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 15.7 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 2.0 24.6 7.4 4.5 1.0 39.5 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7

Record short term temperature rises in some spots as the cold pattern is finally relaxing.

Most storms since 2018-2019 have been cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. We have also had numerous hugger gradients where the low was south but the mixing line pushed into the I-78 to I-84 corridor due to lack of cold high pressure over New England and an amped Southeast Ridge. January 2026 was our first 10”+ benchmark snowstorm from EWR to ISP and nearby suburbs since January 2022. From 2010 to 2018 we had a record number of benchmark 10”+ snowstorm tracks. During the 2002 to 2009 period we also had more benchmark storm tracks. From 1993 there to 2001 we had a blend of storm tracks including the Miller A track east of the APPS which used to give Central and Eastern PA the record snows those years. That track has mostly been missing over the last 20 years. The 1960s to 1980s featured more of a blend of storm tracks. So there haven’t been any years since the mid 90s that the coastal areas from EWR to ISP didn’t reach 25” without at least one major 10”+KU benchmark snowstorm. Prior to the mid 90s we had a wider variety of the storm tracks so we didn’t have to exclusively rely on 10”+ major benchmark snowstorm tracks to get to 25” from EWR to ISP.

I am really happy we were able to sneak in the big benchmark system in late January. But we have reverted back to the dominant storm track pattern since 2018-2019. With the blizzard getting suppressed to our south, we have returned to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

This is due to inadequacy of relying on the standard teleconnections with patterns like this. It was a weaker version of January 1994 and 2004. Those patterns were colder and sustained for a month instead of 15-20 days like this one was. While it doesn’t have a formal name, the key driver of the cold was the 500mb block north of Alaska. That is a very cold teleconnection in the East. You can find other examples such as 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. This was the coldest 16 day period around NYC Metro since then. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 4 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 5 17.5 2026-01-25 through 2026-02-09 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 20.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 20.8 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.9 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0

The warming during March has prevented several stations like EWR, NYC, and LGA from having another 10”+ snowstorm since 1993. March Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1843-05-01 to 2026-02-08 19.0 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14 0 18.3 1956-03-17 through 1956-03-19 0 18.2 1956-03-18 through 1956-03-20 0 14.8 1958-03-20 through 1958-03-22 0 14.8 1958-03-19 through 1958-03-21 0 13.9 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-05 0 13.9 1960-03-02 through 1960-03-04 0 12.7 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-15 0 12.7 1993-03-12 through 1993-03-14 0 12.7 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-21 0 12.5 1960-03-01 through 1960-03-03 0 12.1 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-10 0 12.1 1941-03-07 through 1941-03-09 0 12.0 1941-03-06 through 1941-03-08 0 12.0 1917-03-02 through 1917-03-04 0 12.0 1852-03-17 through 1852-03-19 0 12.0 1852-03-16 through 1852-03-18 0 12.0 1852-03-15 through 1852-03-17 0 11.9 1993-03-11 through 1993-03-13 0 11.5 1896-03-15 through 1896-03-17 0 11.5 1896-03-14 through 1896-03-16 0 11.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-17 through 1867-03-19 0 11.0 1867-03-16 through 1867-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-15 through 1867-03-17 0 10.5 1861-03-19 through 1861-03-21 0 10.5 1851-03-07 through 1851-03-09 0 10.5 1851-03-06 through 1851-03-08 0 10.1 1917-03-03 through 1917-03-05 0 9.5 1958-03-18 through 1958-03-20 0

The forcing shifting east of the Dateline in late January allowing the STJ to become more dominant for a week put most of the major stations close to the coast near or over 25” which is a great outcome for this 2020s climate. The long range guidance sustains the present forcing west of the Dateline into mid-March. So it looks like more of a split flow or Northern Stream dominant storm track pattern which could allow for a smaller or maybe even moderate snowfall event before the end of the season. But probably not a STJ dominant pattern that can produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark NESIS event near the coast. Hoping the spots that are still under 25” can get just enough so they can make it to 25”+. CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 34.4 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 29.8 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 28.6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25.3 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 24.5

We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential. That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week. The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here. While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here.

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2009-2010 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2002-2003 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2003-2004 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2010-2011 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 2025-2026 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 1969-1970 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1975-1976 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1963-1964 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7 2000-2001 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 2008-2009 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 1988-1989 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0

It’s interesting that the last top 10 coldest temperature for Boston in 2023 was during one of its warmest winters. Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1933-1934 -18 0 2 1942-1943 -14 0 - 1917-1918 -14 0 3 1881-1882 -13 0 4 1956-1957 -12 0 - 1883-1884 -12 0 5 1913-1914 -11 0 - 1895-1896 -11 4 - 1875-1876 -11 0 6 2022-2023 -10 0 - 1885-1886 -10 0 - 1884-1885 -10 0 7 2015-2016 -9 0 8 1919-1920 -8 0 - 1902-1903 -8 0 - 1872-1873 -8 0 9 2003-2004 -7 0 - 1980-1981 -7 0 - 1906-1907 -7 0 - 1893-1894 -7 8 10 1923-1924 -6 0 - 1903-1904 -6 0 - 1894-1895 -6 8 - 1887-1888 -6 0 - 1877-1878 -6 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Warmest Winters Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 37.8 0 2 2019-2020 37.7 0 3 2015-2016 37.5 0 4 2011-2012 37.1 0 5 2022-2023 36.7 0 6 1932-1933 36.6 0 7 2023-2024 36.4 0 8 2016-2017 35.6 0 9 1990-1991 35.4 0 - 1931-1932 35.4 0 10 1936-1937 35.2 0 - 1912-1913 35.2 0

Wednesday looks our first chance at ending the under 40° day streak at some spots.

For Newark, NJ this was the coldest 16 day period for average temperatures since 2017-2018. This was the coldest 16 day period at Islip since the late 1970s but 5.3° warmer. At White Plains,NY this was the coldest 16 day period since 2017-2018. For Sussex NJ, it was also the coldest 16 day run since 2015. The coldest on record there was 1967-1968 and 1979. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Since 1951 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.0 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 15.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 15.6 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 15.8 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 0 5 15.9 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 6 16.4 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-23 0 7 16.5 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 8 16.5 1982-01-10 through 1982-01-25 0 9 16.7 1982-01-09 through 1982-01-24 0 10 16.8 1961-01-18 through 1961-02-02 0 11 16.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-18 0 - 16.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 12 17.0 1982-01-07 through 1982-01-22 0 13 17.1 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 14 17.3 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-15 0 15 17.3 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-17 0 - 17.3 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 16 17.5 1982-01-11 through 1982-01-26 0 17 17.6 1980-12-30 through 1981-01-14 0 18 17.7 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-16 0 19 17.9 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 20 18.1 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 21 18.2 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-19 0 - 18.2 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-31 0 22 18.4 1977-01-08 through 1977-01-23 0 - 18.4 1961-01-22 through 1961-02-06 0 23 18.4 1982-01-12 through 1982-01-27 0 - 18.4 1961-01-17 through 1961-02-01 0 24 18.4 1982-01-06 through 1982-01-21 0 - 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-24 0 25 18.6 1977-01-17 through 1977-02-01 0 26 18.6 1980-12-29 through 1981-01-13 0 - 18.6 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-26 0 27 18.8 1977-01-07 through 1977-01-22 0 28 18.8 1977-01-15 through 1977-01-30 0 29 18.9 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 - 18.9 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-25 0 30 19.0 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-27 0 31 19.2 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 32 19.3 1977-01-14 through 1977-01-29 0 - 19.3 1977-01-06 through 1977-01-21 0 33 19.4 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 34 19.4 1982-01-05 through 1982-01-20 0 35 19.5 1961-01-16 through 1961-01-31 0 36 19.5 1961-01-23 through 1961-02-07 0 37 19.6 1977-01-05 through 1977-01-20 0 38 19.6 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 39 19.6 1982-01-13 through 1982-01-28 0 40 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 41 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 - 19.7 1985-01-08 through 1985-01-23 0 42 19.8 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 - 19.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 43 19.8 2004-01-14 through 2004-01-29 0 44 19.8 1977-01-13 through 1977-01-28 0 45 19.8 2004-01-10 through 2004-01-25 0 - 19.8 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 46 19.9 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 - 19.9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 47 19.9 1985-01-09 through 1985-01-24 0 48 20.0 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 - 20.0 1980-12-28 through 1981-01-12 0 - 20.0 1970-01-08 through 1970-01-23 0 49 20.0 1977-01-18 through 1977-02-02 0 - 20.0 1977-01-04 through 1977-01-19 0 50 20.0 1981-01-05 through 1981-01-20 0 51 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 - 20.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 - 20.1 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 52 20.1 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 - 20.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-12 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.7 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 13.2 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 13.3 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 13.8 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 5 14.6 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 6 15.0 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 7 15.8 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 8 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 9 16.2 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 10 16.4 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 11 16.6 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 12 16.7 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 13 16.8 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 14 16.9 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-12 0 15 16.9 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 16 17.4 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 17 17.5 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-11 0 18 17.7 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-18 0 19 18.0 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 20 18.2 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-18 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 9.3 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 9.7 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 10.3 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 - 10.3 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 4 10.7 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 0 5 11.3 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 6 11.4 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 7 11.8 1961-01-18 through 1961-02-02 0 8 11.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 9 11.9 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 10 12.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 11 12.7 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-23 0 12 12.8 1982-01-10 through 1982-01-25 0 13 12.8 1982-01-09 through 1982-01-24 0 14 12.9 1961-01-22 through 1961-02-06 0 15 13.2 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 16 13.3 1982-01-07 through 1982-01-22 0 17 13.5 1961-01-17 through 1961-02-01 0 18 13.6 1982-01-11 through 1982-01-26 0 19 13.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 20 13.9 1961-01-23 through 1961-02-07 0 21 14.3 1982-01-12 through 1982-01-27 0 22 14.4 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 23 14.6 1982-01-06 through 1982-01-21 0 24 14.7 1961-01-24 through 1961-02-08 0 25 14.8 1961-01-16 through 1961-01-31 0 26 14.9 1979-01-30 through 1979-02-14 0 27 15.2 1982-01-13 through 1982-01-28 0 - 15.2 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-31 0 28 15.4 1977-01-08 through 1977-01-23 0 29 15.5 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-24 0 30 15.6 1977-01-15 through 1977-01-30 0 31 15.6 1977-01-17 through 1977-02-01 0 32 15.7 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 33 15.8 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-26 0 34 15.8 1961-01-15 through 1961-01-30 0 35 16.0 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-25 0 36 16.1 2015-02-14 through 2015-03-01 0 - 16.1 1977-01-07 through 1977-01-22 0 - 16.1 1961-01-25 through 1961-02-09 0 37 16.2 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-27 0 38 16.2 1977-01-14 through 1977-01-29 0 39 16.3 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 40 16.3 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 41 16.3 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 - 16.3 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 42 16.4 1982-01-14 through 1982-01-29 0 - 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 - 16.4 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 43 16.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-25 0 44 16.4 1977-01-06 through 1977-01-21 0 45 16.5 1977-01-05 through 1977-01-20 0 46 16.6 2015-02-11 through 2015-02-26 0 47 16.7 1977-01-04 through 1977-01-19 0 48 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 - 16.8 2004-01-10 through 2004-01-25 0 - 16.8 1994-01-06 through 1994-01-21 0 49 16.8 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-02 0 50 16.8 1977-01-13 through 1977-01-28 0 51 16.9 2015-02-15 through 2015-03-02 0 - 16.9 2004-01-14 through 2004-01-29 0 - 16.9 1982-01-15 through 1982-01-30 0 - 16.9 1977-01-18 through 1977-02-02 0 52 16.9 2004-01-09 through 2004-01-24 0 - 16.9 1979-01-29 through 1979-02-13 0 53 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 54 17.0 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 - 17.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 55 17.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 56 17.0 1994-01-07 through 1994-01-22 0 - 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-18 0 57 17.1 1977-01-03 through 1977-01-18 0 58 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 59 17.1 1994-01-08 through 1994-01-23 0 60 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 61 17.2 2015-02-10 through 2015-02-25 0 - 17.2 2005-01-14 through 2005-01-29 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.5 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 2 12.6 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-02 0 3 12.6 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 4 12.8 2015-02-14 through 2015-03-01 0 5 12.9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 6 13.1 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 7 13.1 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 8 13.5 2005-01-19 through 2005-02-03 0 9 13.6 2015-02-11 through 2015-02-26 0 10 14.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 6.2 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 2 6.5 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 3 6.7 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 6.8 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 5 6.9 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 - 6.9 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 6 7.1 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0

The higher ratios helped us out this winter with our snows since we have been continuing with this drier pattern since the fall of 2024.