bluewave

The long range extended EPS really wants to dry out the Plains. This is a signal for the shorter term guidance to keep correcting stronger with the 500mb ridges and heat than what the longer range guidance has been showing. So it’s possible our area could continue to see repeating major heatwaves from time to time through at least the rest of July.

This will be a good experiment coming up on how much increased soil moisture will have on next weeks heatwave vs the recent that maxed out in the 104° to 106° range. The current 850mb temperature forecast from the Euro and GEM is 25C. Made it to around 24C last week. I hope we can avoid the first time that a 104°-106° high temperature range repeated during the same summer. But who knows with this new much warmer climate. This isn’t the kind of new climate precedent that you want to set.

Yeah, this is going to be a very impressive ridge for that part of North America. MPX has a shot at a new all-time 500 mb height record. The previous record is less than three years old.

The Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from 2023-2024 super El Nino for the first time was an early signal something was different this time. Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 was in 2025 than all the previous years following super El Niños. Almost like a bridge between the two super El Niños only three years apart.

A piece of good news is that the record 600 DM ridge next week is forecast to remain over Minnesota and Iowa. So we probably max out from 95° to perhaps around 100° instead of 104° to 106° like this recent record heatwave. Probably ridge riding convection going over the top. So more opportunities for much needed rainfall. But could also come with more severe potential.

Yeah, this is the first time that a more La Niña-like -PDO pattern is overlapping with such a strong El Niño during the summer leading to so much volatility. Click the top right arrow below.

A much needed soaking rainstorm here just east of HVN. This was officially my wettest 6 day period since moving up here. Now at 4.84 for July. This is the highest precipitation month here since October 2025. Maximum 6-Day Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT since 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 4.91 2021-07-06 through 2021-07-11 0 2 4.84 2026-07-01 through 2026-07-06 0 Monthly Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 1.50 1.19 4.87 1.67 3.17 1.96 4.84 M M M M M 19.20 2025 0.73 2.77 3.73 2.53 5.28 1.39 2.55 1.05 3.25 5.39 1.57 2.45 32.69 2024 5.39 1.33 9.48 3.16 4.54 3.41 4.33 6.03 1.16 0.32 2.71 4.80 46.66

The PDO continues to operate independently of El Nino. The more Niña-like pattern which resulted in record heat in the East caused the PDO to fall and the AMO to rise. This is a result of the strong mid-latitude ridges warming the ocean surface below. The Atlantic City, NJ with the airport on the edge of the Pine Barrens just tied its all-time highest temperature. Most other years above 100° were La Ninas like 2011 or weaker El Niños or more neutral years. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1943-08-01 to 2026-07-06 1 106.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 through 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 5 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-09 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 102.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 6 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2007-08-08 through 2007-08-08 - 101.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 7 100.0 2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21 - 100.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 100.0 2011-07-24 through 2011-07-24

When you understand what the models strengths and weaknesses are in the long range, then you can start to make sense of what they are trying to say. So we start with what we know about the models and work from that starting point. A model strength of the ECMWF is more accurate ENSO SST forecasts once past the spring predictability barrier. The ECMWF ENSO SST forecasts with previous super events were actually pretty good from July 2023 and 2015. So chances are increasing with each model update that this will be the strongest El Niño event on record using a metric like traditional ONI anomalies and absolute SSTs. The current SSTs are already ahead of all the previous super El Niños to this point. The long range temperature forecasts for both the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events were significantly too cold. The 500 mb forecasts provided some skill but the location and the magnitude of the ridges were more expansive with weaker troughs. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO over the last decade. The areas under the ridges had temperatures which greatly exceeded forecasts. Plus there were one month intervals in the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 super El Niño events when the Indio-Pacific warm pool was strong enough to drive the forcing outside the typical El Niño regions. This will be the first time with two super El Niño events only three years apart. It will be both a big sensible weather event around the world and a climate event. Since each super El Niño event since 1997-1998 resulted in a big jump in global temperatures to a higher baseline. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

It’s a good thing that there were no injuries with how close a call this was.

https://newjersey.news12.com/2026/07/06/roof-collapses-at-bjs-wholesale-club-in-ocean-township/128UzlO4BAdoGypMDmXBA6 Multiple crews are responding to a roof collapse at a BJ’s Wholesale Club in Ocean Township. The Monmouth County Sheriff’s Office said first responders are on scene at the store on Route 35 in the Oakhurst section of Ocean Township. Officials are asking people to stay clear of the area so emergency crews can respond safely. The collapse happened around 11:30 a.m. Multiple mutual aid crews from surrounding towns were also called to the scene. Law enforcement officials told News 12 that there were no injuries reported. Police said all 27 staff members who were in the building at the time are accounted for and safe. All of the customers who were in BJ's at the time of the collapse are also safe, police said. According to Ocean Township Police Chief Michael Sorrentino and Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden, approximately 20% of the rear of the building has collapsed. Officials believe the damage was caused by the weight of the water from the heavy rain that fell. Authorities are also urging drivers to avoid Route 35 because of severe flooding in the area. This remains a developing story.

Radar estimates near Breezy Point over 7 inches now with training and back building convection continuing.

This was our most extreme period around July 4th with record heat, damaging winds causing power outages, and torrential downpours leading flooding.

Major flooding in Monmouth County also.

I have been under training convection several times in the past when the totals went past 5.00. The most extreme version was in August 2011 when I had 10.00 to 11.00 and most of the rain fell in less than 7 hours. Back in June 1995 I picked up 5.15 in around 90 minutes.

Portions of Orange County show what can happen with training convection in situations like these. Orange County... Otisville 7.78 in 1010 AM 07/06 NYSM Montgomery 6.01 in 1005 AM 07/06 CWOP

These Euro monthly SST forecasts show how a large portion of the ENSO regions are currently on track to set new all-time actual SSTs and anomalies.

As I have been commenting on for a while now, these expansive marine heatwaves and associated 500mb patterns can exert an influence on our weather and climate which is independent of ENSO. So at times the other marine heatwaves and associated 500mb patterns can drive the sensible weather. Then at other intervals the ENSO can have a more direct effect. Still on other occasions there is an overlapping influence. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be.

This was the warmest July 1st through 4th across the region. Several locations came close to their all-time highs. Atlantic City tied their all-time high. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Warmest July 1st-4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 89.4 0 2 2002-07-04 86.6 0 3 1966-07-04 86.0 0 4 2018-07-04 85.3 0 5 1901-07-04 84.6 0 - 1872-07-04 84.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 84.5 0 2 1966-07-04 82.1 0 3 2002-07-04 81.6 0 4 2018-07-04 81.3 0 - 1964-07-04 81.3 0 5 1955-07-04 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 86.1 0 2 2018-07-04 81.9 0 3 2002-07-04 81.4 0 4 1955-07-04 78.9 0 5 2013-07-04 78.1 0 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 89.4 0 2 1901-07-04 89.0 0 3 1898-07-04 85.6 0 4 2018-07-04 85.3 0 5 2002-07-04 84.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 88.6 0 2 1966-07-04 87.8 0 3 2002-07-04 86.4 0 4 2018-07-04 85.8 0 5 1955-07-04 83.9 0 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-05 1 104.0 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ thermometer malfunction missed the 2010 max Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 106.0 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09

Then maybe you can help me understand what you mean by the term surrogate since it’s not typically a word that is used when trying to understand the weather and climate.

I usually don’t post seasonal forecast maps for details like temperatures. Looking more at where the seasonal models have some actual skill like the ENSO plumes past the spring predictability barrier. The temperature maps posted were to show that the models haven’t had much skill in that area. Just remember than none of the seasonal models over the last decade have successfully forecast any the record warmth which has been so frequent at times most winter seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. I don’t understand what you mean by surrogates since that implies a situation or process where you can exert some influence on the outcome. Now if I could affect the weather in some way, it would be to restore our colder climate of days past since I didn’t like how much warmer our climate has become.

In a broad sense you can consider these seasonal models guidance, but the guidance is more of a correlation at times than an actual forecast. I showed in earlier posts how the 2023-2024 seasonal forecasts matched the correlations for Nino 3.4 and not the subset of super events over +2.0. About the only thing that the seasonal models have skill at in July are the Nino forecast plumes now that we are past the spring predictability barrier.