bluewave

Another issue is how warm Canada has been especially since May 2023. The coldest temperatures for both NYC and Saranac Lake during the 2020s occurred back on 2-4-23. While it was one the warmest winters on record across the Northeast, there was still a decent cold pool near Hudson Bay in February available for that brief Arctic outbreak. That was the only time during the 2020s that Saranac Lake dropped to -33° and NYC to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. DANNEMORA COOP -39 HIGHMARKET 2W COOP -35 Saranac Lake Area ThreadEx -33 SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP WBAN -33 WATERTOWN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -33 GOUVERNEUR 3 NW COOP -31 THERESA 4NW COOP -29 LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP -29 COLTON 2 N COOP -29 MORRISVILLE 6 SW COOP -28 MASSENA INTL AP WBAN -28 Newcomb Area ThreadEx -27 BOONVILLE 4 SSW COOP -27 NEWCOMB COOP -27 WATERTOWN COOP -27 LOWVILLE COOP -26 MALONE COOP -26 INDIAN LAKE 2SW COOP -25 GLOVERSVILLE 7NW (PECK LAKE) COOP -24 Glens Falls Area ThreadEx -24 GLENS FALLS/FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -24 SCHROON LAKE NEW YORK RAWS -23 TRENTON FALLS COOP -23 Plattsburgh Area ThreadEx -22 PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -22 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS -20 CONKLINGVILLE DAM COOP -20 OGDENSBURG 4 NE COOP -20 SHERBURNE COOP -19 BUSKIRK COOP -19 ROME GRIFFISS AIRFIELD WBAN -18 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP -17 MECKLENBURG 4SW COOP -17 COOPERSTOWN COOP -16 MEXICO 2SW COOP -16 WHITEHALL COOP -16 LANSING MANOR COOP -16 DELHI 2 SE COOP -15 CAMDEN COOP -15 SCHOHARIE COOP -14 CALLICOON CENTER COOP -14 WARSAW 6 SW COOP -13 BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP) WBAN -13 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -13 FULTON OSWEGO COUNTY AP WBAN -13 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN -13 Albany Area ThreadEx -13 Binghamton Area ThreadEx -13 Syracuse Area ThreadEx -13 ALCOVE DAM COOP -12 ITHACA CORNELL UNIV COOP -12 NORWICH COOP -12 PULASKI COOP -12 WALTON 2 COOP -12 FREEVILLE 1 NE COOP -11 BATAVIA WBAN -11 WYOMING 3W COOP -11 ITHACA 13 E WBAN -11 LIBERTY 1 NE COOP -10 OLEAN COOP -10 EAST SIDNEY COOP -10 HEMLOCK COOP -10 CARMEL 4N COOP -10 MILLBROOK 3 W WBAN -10 MONTICELLO SULLIVAN WBAN -9 ANGELICA COOP -9 AURORA RESEARCH FARM COOP -9 Oswego Area ThreadEx -9 BREWERTON LOCK 23 COOP -9 OSWEGO WBAN -9 PENN YAN AIRPORT WBAN -9 HORNELL ALMOND DAM COOP -8 ALFRED COOP -8 AUBURN COOP -8 FREDERICK DOUGLASS GREATER ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -8 HONEOYE COOP -8 Rochester Area ThreadEx -8 MOHONK LAKE COOP -7 GENEVA RESEARCH FARM COOP -7 CANANDAIGUA 3 S COOP -7 AVON COOP -7 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx -7 GENESEE CO ICAO -7 WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -7 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -7 WHITNEY POINT DAM COOP -6 CORNING COOP -6 ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP WBAN -6 LITTLE VALLEY COOP -6 FRANKLINVILLE COOP -6 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS -6 MOUNT MORRIS 2W COOP -6 VICTOR 2NW COOP -6 COLDEN 1W COOP -6 ELMIRA COOP -5 DANSVILLE COOP -5 WELLSVILLE COOP -5 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS -5 WALES COOP -5 MACEDON LOCK E30 COOP -5 SODUS 1W COOP -5 BROCKPORT COOP -5 FULTON COOP -5 WAVERLY COOP -5 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 SHRUB OAK COOP -4 PORT JERVIS COOP -4 MATTITUCK COOP -4 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP -4 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CATTARAUGUS 3W COOP -3 WEST POINT COOP -2 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 ALBION COOP -2 PERRYSBURG COOP -2 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 ALLEGANY STATE PARK COOP -1 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 BUFFALO NIAGARA INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR WBAN 0 NORTH TONAWANDA COOP 0 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 Buffalo Area ThreadEx 0 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3

The main issue in recent years with MJO forecasts in general has been the record warm SSTs over the tropical WPAC to around the Maritime Continent stalling convection there. So even if the RMM charts show the MJO going into phase 8, the VP charts will often have convection lingering over the WPAC. Our last clean MJO 8 was back in January 2022. Recent MJO 8 passages on the RMM charts didn’t match the classic MJO VP composites. Since the RMM charts did show a phase 8 but convection lingered near the Maritime Continent. Plus another issue has been the convective forcing stalling in 6-7 before going into the circle or only a very low amplitude MJO 8. So it’s better to monitor the velocity potential charts along with the RMM charts to get a complete picture of the convective forcing.

That was really my only time in Long Beach when a .50 of rain with thunder and low 40s ever transitioned into greater than a 6” snowstorm.

That was the greatest comeback winter on record for multiple reasons. First, 01-02 was essentially a year without a winter. 3.5” of snow and a 41.5° average winter temperature. Second, the Christmas Day storm started with heavy thunderstorms and low 40s during the morning. Then my only 8” Christmas Day snowstorm in the evening for the greatest Christmas Day comeback of all-time. So a winter average of 31.2” and close to 50” of snow on the season.

The only Southeast ridge component that really matters is on the day of the storms like last winter. Even if a Southeast ridge isn’t showing in the means, if a storm is tracking through the Great Lakes we will get the Southeast ridge to flex for a day before the storm cuts to our west or hugs the I-78 to I-84 corridor. Long range ensembles never show this since they are too smoothed out in the long range and have trouble seeing the individual shortwaves. We really haven’t seen a gradient pattern work closer to NYC in a long time due to this for more than light snows.

Yeah, but that isn’t really cold for those areas either. Remember, the lows in the UHI zones are proportional to the ones outside the urban areas. Since you aren’t going to get very cold with radiational cooling if the airmass isn’t that cold to begin with. Even places which great radiational cooling like Saranac Lake have only dropped to 19° by November 16th. This is the 2nd warmest minimum on record through 11-16 at the airport. Time Series Summary for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY Warmest lows 9-1 to 11-16 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2006-11-16 21 1 2 2025-11-16 19 0 3 2016-11-16 18 0 - 1998-11-16 18 0 5 2014-11-16 17 0 6 2010-11-16 16 0 - 2000-11-16 16 1 8 2021-11-16 15 0 9 2024-11-16 13 0 10 2011-11-16 12 0 - 2009-11-16 12 0 12 2008-11-16 11 0 - 2005-11-16 11 1 14 2015-11-16 10 0

Yeah, most of the snow north of the South Shore on radar remained aloft for hours with the subzero dewpoints and strong high pressure.

March 2019 was the last time that March was more like winter than spring month for us. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.2 6.2 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T 2009 8.3 8.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T

My all-time favorite ride from Suffolk into Nassau was PD2 in 2003. Left Holbrook that Sunday evening with just cold and overcast conditions. Quickly found developing moderate snow once down to Sunrise HWY near Bayshore. Then heavy snow and blowing snow by the time we crossed the Nassau line. There was over 4” OTG by the time we got back to Long Beach with blowing and drifting snow. That had to be the slowest progression north that we ever had of heavy snow from the South Shore to the North Shore in a KU. You could watch the heavy snow on radar just south of JFK during the afternoon take until later in the evening to approach the Long Island Sound.

This could be a case of the potential wave reflection helping to anchor the Aleutian ridge too far west leading to a trough out West and Southeast ridge into early December.

Maybe if you are right on the water like in Long Beach. But ISP is enough distance from the water that they can radiate fairly well. I radiate very well here and I am closer to the water than ISP. How cold any given location gets during radiational cooling relative to their local benchmarks is more a function of how cold the overall airmass is.

Islip doesn’t get hard freezes this time of year down to 28° with strong enough winds off the ocean anyway. It usually occurs with offshore flow or radiational cooling. So it’s more a reflection of the lack of cold across North America this fall.

Timing wise the first 32° in NYC usually occurs around a similar time of the first hard freeze of 28° at ISP and HPN. So those similar benchmarks for fall cold still haven’t been met at those locations either. The most noteworthy lack of cold is a little further inland at SMQ. They still haven’t reached 25° for their normally colder location which is currently 3rd latest since 1999.

It’s all proportional since numerous stations outside the heat island haven’t had their first hard freeze yet. So more a lack of cold air this fall. The strong winds have made it seem colder than it has actually been.

Strong winds continue to be the big story this month with all the lows racing through the Eastern Great Lakes and New England.

Most of us had a weaker 500 mb PNA this December than last year using different methods.

NYC and LGA may have to wait until December for their first freeze with the big trough taking up residence next few weeks out West. New York City... Central Park, NY Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Mocldy Mocldy Ptcldy /54 36/45 34/48 36/49 39/52 45/58 49/58 /10 10/00 00/00 20/20 20/20 40/40 40/40 LaGuardia Airport, NY Ptcldy Ptcldy Sunny Ptcldy Mocldy Mocldy Ptcldy /55 37/45 35/48 37/49 40/51 45/57 49/58 /10 10/00 00/00 20/20 20/20 30/40 40/40

We did get one very warm year in that mix during 31-32. But there was no sustained warmth like we have had over the last decade. The interesting thing is that even the smaller temperature rise from 1870 to 1940 when emissions first began to rise saw a significant decline in snowfall. For the first time we have a full 30 year weather dataset prior to this period. From 1843-1844 to 1872-1873 the 30 year climate mean snowfall at Newark was 43.7” of snow a year. Only 2 years with under 20” of snow with 10 years averaging over 50” of snow. The winter average temperature was 30.8°. So more conformation that areas near the coast require a winter average temperature near or under freezing for a 50” season. The current 7 snowfall season period at Newark has featured a 17.3” average snowfall with a 37.5° average temperature. So areas just west of the current I-95 corridor probably averaged 45-50” a season from parts of Somerset across Morris. Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.8 9.1 12.1 12.6 7.3 1.8 43.7 1843-1844 0.0 1.3 9.5 5.5 13.5 1.8 0.0 31.6 1844-1845 0.0 0.5 6.5 5.5 20.5 5.5 T 38.5 1845-1846 0.0 T 8.5 16.5 28.0 T T 53.0 1846-1847 0.0 1.5 12.0 10.0 21.0 4.3 0.5 49.3 1847-1848 0.0 T 6.0 T 8.0 5.0 T 19.0 1848-1849 0.0 1.3 24.0 T 13.0 6.0 0.0 44.3 1849-1850 0.0 0.0 11.0 3.0 T 9.0 8.0 31.0 1850-1851 0.0 0.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 10.5 2.0 24.5 1851-1852 0.0 2.0 7.0 20.0 14.0 16.0 4.3 63.3 1852-1853 0.0 T T 15.5 2.3 7.0 T 24.8 1853-1854 0.0 M 6.0 15.0 23.5 2.8 13.5 60.8 1854-1855 0.0 T 8.0 18.5 16.0 2.5 T 45.0 1855-1856 0.0 T 9.0 32.8 5.0 11.0 0.0 57.8 1856-1857 0.0 0.5 4.3 28.1 2.1 17.0 0.0 52.0 1857-1858 0.0 T 4.5 1.8 10.5 10.5 T 27.3 1858-1859 0.0 5.5 6.5 12.3 15.8 6.0 T 46.1 1859-1860 3.0 0.0 5.1 11.3 25.0 2.5 T 46.9 1860-1861 0.0 T 7.0 20.6 1.3 17.0 2.0 47.9 1861-1862 0.0 1.0 1.0 12.0 25.5 4.6 6.0 50.1 1862-1863 0.0 6.5 8.0 10.0 13.0 10.9 1.8 50.2 1863-1864 0.0 T 4.3 7.0 1.0 7.0 T 19.3 1864-1865 0.0 0.3 26.0 10.5 12.5 T 0.0 49.3 1865-1866 0.0 0.0 13.1 11.8 8.0 1.5 T 34.4 1866-1867 0.0 T 7.0 23.5 15.5 17.5 T 63.5 1867-1868 0.0 T 15.5 23.3 14.0 15.0 7.0 74.8 1868-1869 T 0.0 9.5 11.0 12.0 5.0 0.6 38.1 1869-1870 T T 8.1 1.8 8.5 11.0 3.0 32.4 1870-1871 0.0 T 5.0 16.0 16.1 1.3 2.0 40.4 1871-1872 0.0 T 8.5 2.0 5.0 8.5 T 24.0 1872-1873 0.0 4.0 25.1 14.1 23.3 2.2 3.0 71.7

Pointing out identifiable shifts in the climate has nothing to do with doom. I use it to set the range of parameters for my forecasts. Warming temperatures and storm tracks over time mean less snow. The long term snowfall trend in NYC has been down with steady winter warming. As the winters have been warming we reached a sweet spot for heavy snows between 1993-1994 and 2017-2018. The temperature snd storm tracks were just right along with the increased precipitation for heavy snows. But you will also notice during those years that we had very few average years which were common prior to the 1990s. It was an all or nothing snowfall pattern with great years over 30” and 40” with other years around 15” or under. Past snow droughts were a function of drier winters which were cyclical. But warming is a long term trend due to increasing CO2 emissions. Plus we have experienced non-linear shifts which have abrupt and not gradual. So I have a few long range snowfall scenarios for NYC going forward. Scenario #1 is that the warmer storm track shift and less snow since 2019 is what we will have going forward with NYC shifting to under 20” of snowfall. A few seasons will reach average and above but most will be below the mid 20s. Scenario #2 is a bounce off the lows with more frequent snowy seasons but well below the 2010-2018 close to 40” average in NYC. This would be a short term pattern before the lower seasons begin dominating again. The lowest skill scenario #3 would be a VEI-7 or VEI-8 volcanic eruption which would induce a volcanic winter for 3-7 years with much colder and snowier conditions. Since these eruptions are no easily forecast and can have hundreds or thousands of years between events. So unless we get a historic volcanic event which isn’t easily to forecast, my guess is a a choice between scenario #1 and scenario #2.

With the lack of significant cold in our forecast for the rest of the month, it will be interesting too see if NYC-LGA has to wait until December for their first freeze. ...New York City... Central Park, NY Ptcldy Ptcldy Rain Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy /50 36/52 50/56 38/47 36/48 35/49 35/49 /00 00/20 90/50 00/00 00/20 20/10 10/10 EPS Nov 17-24 forecast Nov 24 to Dec 1 forecast

There is a difference from too dry for much snow back then vs too warm for much snow now. The current 7 year snowfall average is 14.9”in NYC with a winter average temperature of 37.4° and 11.29” precipitation. The 7 year period ending 1932 in NYC featured 16.2” of snow with a winter average temperature of 34.7” and 9.66” of precipitation. So this current run is a function of warming winters and storm tracks vs a cyclical dry pattern back then. NYC was able to follow that low snowfall period with a nice rebound in snowfall the following seasons. But we are much warmer now so it’s less likely we see a 50”+ season and 3 consecutive winters averaging under 32.0°. Plus it’s unlikely we see a Fenruary as cold as 1934 in the coming years. Snowfall 1932-1933 27.0 0 1933-1934 52.0 0 1934-1935 33.8 0 1935-1936 33.2 0 Average winter temperature 1932-1933 37.8 0 1933-1934 29.1 0 1934-1935 31.1 0 1935-1936 28.3 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1934 19.9 0 2 1885 22.6 0 3 2015 23.9 0 4 1895 24.3 0 5 1905 24.8 0 6 1904 25.1 0 7 1875 25.2 1 8 1914 25.4 0 9 1979 25.5 0 10 1936 25.7 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1934 -15 0 2 1943 -8 0 3 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 4 1896 -5 0 5 1895 -4 0 - 1886 -4 0

NYC will set the new record this month since we don’t have any daily 4” snowfalls in the forecast. Janaury 2022 was our last month here which was both snowy and cold. From 2010 to 2018 NYC had 36 days with 4” of snowfall vs only 6 days from 2019 to 2025. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2025-11-12 1 1394 1929-02-22 through 1932-12-16 2 1383 2022-01-30 through 2025-11-12 3 1063 1949-03-01 through 1952-01-27 4 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 5 794 1954-01-12 through 1956-03-15 6 743 1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21 7 742 1918-01-23 through 1920-02-03 8 687 1979-02-20 through 1981-01-06 9 685 1972-02-24 through 1974-01-08 10 680 1952-03-02 through 1954-01-10 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Days with 4” of snow Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-2025 0 0 2023-2024 0 0 2022-2023 0 0 2021-2022 2 0 2020-2021 4 0 2019-2020 0 0 2018-2019 2 0 2017-2018 5 0 2016-2017 3 0 2015-2016 1 0 2014-2015 6 0 2013-2014 5 0 2012-2013 4 0 2011-2012 1 0 2010-2011 6 0 2009-2010 5 0

It’s all a numbers and probability game. Record lows across the planet are being rapidly outpaced by record highs. So you have a much better chance of experiencing a record high than a record low. But when record lows do occur the geographic footprint is much smaller than they use to be. So it’s just easier for the core of the cold to miss any given location. Here in North America the relatively few Arctic outbreaks when they have been occurring have been more focused from the upper Midwest down the Plains and into the South. The NW Atlantic to our east is one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet. So our area being so close to it is making the lack of cold even greater relative to other areas.

The recent cold records across the Southeast occurred at both urban, suburban, and rural sites. From the interior right down into the Florida Keys. So it was the function of the cold Arctic airmass which dropped into the Southeast. Since even rural areas of the Northeast that radiate well have been missing the cold records at a similar rate as our more urban areas have. You need a cold enough Arctic airmass for radiational cooling to set records. Case in point the -50 low back in January 1977 in the Adirondacks. That radiational cooling at Old Forge was part of a much wider Arctic outbreak with records across the entire region. So even with great radiational cooling, we haven’t seen that kind of cold since then. Since the overall air masses have become so much warmer.

There may be something else at work which links back pretty far in the human collective experience. We evolved through very cold conditions during ice ages when many didn’t survive the harsh conditions. So the cold was something to be feared in generations since those experiences. Warmer conditions were something to be welcomed following these harsh eras. So we don’t have experience yet as a species of warmth being something to be feared. Instead at least in the U.S, most of our internal migration has been from colder climates to warmer ones. This forum is really in the minority. Since most people outside our forum would be happy if we didn’t really have winters at all. It’s why so many go to Florida during the winters. If you notice an Arctic outbreak or snowstorm usually gets much more media attention than a heatwave. My guess is that this natural disposition is hardwired into us from cold and snow being associated with negative consequences for us.