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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan. This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012. While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing. But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence. If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America. Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.
  2. bluewave
    At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern.
  3. bluewave
    That’s why this forum is such a great resource. It allows people from all over to share ideas. Having all this information in one central location is very convenient.
  4. bluewave
    Yeah, my area along the CT Shoreline is showing marked improvement compared to how dry last summer was. Much greener now at the open spaces around Tweed airport. It was completely brown last summer. The water levels at my local reservoir are much higher this summer. Very impressive high dew point surge starting tomorrow and perhaps lasting till next Tuesday. Another near record ridge amplification. So continuing opportunities for convection.
  5. bluewave
    The expansion of the boreal forests into the tundra raises another set of issues. https://www.technologynetworks.com/applied-sciences/news/boreal-trees-are-spreading-into-the-arctic-tundra-405025 In an increasingly warmer world, the Arctic tundra is becoming more forestlike. This process, known as borealization, is particularly widespread in Eurasia and in Arctic mountain regions, where the distance to the boreal (northern) forest is shorter. Many species of grasses and shrubs that can live in both the tundra and the forest are gaining ground in the tundra. This is shown by a new large-scale study of 1,100 sampling sites across the entire Arctic biome. Consequences “If this trend continues, it could have a number of consequences. For example, it could accelerate the melting of the permafrost or change the seasonal migration of reindeer. It could also affect the traditional livelihoods of the indigenous peoples of the Arctic, who rely on hunting, reindeer herding, and gathering plants as a part of their subsistence and cultural practice,” says Robert Björk, a researcher on Arctic ecosystems at the University of Gothenburg. When shrubs and other tree-like species expand, they trap more snow in winter and cover the ground in summer. This changes the ground temperature and can accelerate the thawing of the permafrost. As a result, large amounts of carbon that have been frozen for thousands of years could be released, contributing to global warming.
  6. bluewave
    Yeah, that is what I noticed especially reading the all-time record high pressure in Australia with the -SOI and extreme conditions in South America. Perhaps it’s related in some way to the record early stratospheric disruption last November. Following the strong blocking last winter, record low pressure developed north of Alaska during the spring and has continued into the summer. This has been associated with the record ridging and heat across the mid-latitudes. It would be a nice topic for a research paper.
  7. bluewave
    The issue at hand is the expansion of wildfires in the boreal and other forests. Places like Canada have seen both national and regional record fire activity increase due to the warmer and drier conditions. The recent record fire in Ontario produced the record smoke from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. I don’t count that as a positive.
  8. bluewave
    Northern Hemisphere pattern going into August still out of sync with the record breaking El Niño.
  9. bluewave
    While the drought monitor will show improvement when it updates across the area in a few days, there will still be drought especially in the areas which have been the driest during recent years like in NJ. The northern areas like around Bridgeport didn’t have as much of deficit as parts of NJ. So this multiyear drought has always been the strongest in parts of NJ.
  10. bluewave
    If you read my post more clearly that is what I said. Bridgeport is the only major site with such a heavy rainfall departure since June 1st. So for the heaviest totals to be more spread out more sites would need to be like Bridgeport. The other major sites are similar in that they missed the heaviest totals.
  11. bluewave
    https://thetradeoff.substack.com/p/the-wildfire-climate-change-burn?r=1q3cpv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true The Wildfire-Climate Change Burn Area Paradox Climate Change is making wildfires worse, but global wildfire burn area is declining RYAN KATZ-ROSENE AUG 03, 2026 Consider the following two statements about global wildfires from two high-level scientific reviews on the matter: AND What?! Are wildfires getting worse, or is the situation getting better? What can we expect going forward - more burn area globally as a result of a warming planet, or lessin concert with the present trend? This post wades into this apparent paradox and reasserts the idea that both the present and the future of wildfire burn area is highly linked to anthropogenic climate change. Yes, global burn area is declining, but it’s uneven regionally Globally, burn area from fires is indeed showing a robust declining trend over the last two decades. Some regions, however, have seen a pronounced increase over this period (especially boreal forest ecosystems). The longer term trends, as shown in the figure below, vary substantially from one model and dataset to the next, but generally speaking the story is that northern remote areas (especially boreal forest ecosystems and northern peatlands) are seeing an increase in recent decades, and tropical areas - especially in Africa’s savannah areas - have seen a decrease. Why is this happening? The specifics are complex, but the general explanation can be found in major expansions in agricultural development in Africa, which have helped drive “significant declines [in burn area] in African savannahs… despite significant increases in fire weather, and especially extreme fire weather, in the region.” This is, after all, savannah-grasslands account for more than half of global burn area, and so a significant reduction in that biome has a pronounced effect on the global totals.
  12. bluewave
    Most major sites are just a little above average since June 1st. Bridgeport is the only major station with an uneven big departure. So for the heavy rain to be more even most sites would need to be like Bridgeport.
  13. bluewave
    Typical uneven nature of rainfall from convection. We would probably need a tropical system to have the heaviest totals spread out more evenly. Bridgeport currently has the heaviest totals since June 1st of the major reporting stations. June 1st through August 3rd rainfall NYC….10.28….+0.67 LGA…..9.61……+0.83 EWR….9.74…..+0.27 JFK…..9.31……+1.19 ISP…..10.33……+2.66 BDR….15.84…..+8.36
  14. bluewave
    It sounds like you would enjoy the climate out West which averages under 25” a year of precipitation. Just had some friends get back from San Diego and they really loved it out there. We got close to that here back in the 1960s for a time.
  15. bluewave
    Yeah, they snuck one in during 2004. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Lowest Number 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1889 5 0 2 1920 6 0 - 1907 6 0 - 1904 6 0 - 1902 6 0 3 1996 7 0 - 1984 7 0 - 1960 7 0 - 1906 7 0 4 1927 8 0 - 1917 8 0 - 1875 8 0 5 2004 9 0 - 1969 9 0 - 1905 9 0 - 1877 9 0
  16. bluewave
    Harrison, NJ is on track for their first 9 consecutive years with over 30 days reaching 90°. The last time they had under 10 days was 1996. That year is still the reigning champ for the most snow and least 90° days across the area. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 26 151 2025 37 0 2024 41 0 2023 33 0 2022 44 0 2021 38 0 2020 39 0 2019 39 0 2018 47 0 2017 23 0 2016 40 0 2015 32 0 2014 16 0 2013 25 0 2012 35 21 2011 31 30 2010 50 30 2009 15 42 2008 22 19 2007 22 5 2006 30 4 2005 41 9 2004 17 6 2003 14 8 2002 47 8 2001 30 7 2000 15 14 1999 39 4 1998 18 2 1997 20 5 1996 8 17
  17. bluewave
    The Franklin Institute and the airport getting close to 30 days with Harrison not far behind. 90° Day Data for January 1, 2026 through August 3, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 28 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 28 90° Day Data for January 1, 2026 through August 3, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ESTELL MANOR COOP 27 HARRISON COOP 26
  18. bluewave
    I am starting to wonder if we are seeing some lingering influence from the stratospheric disruption which occurred so much earlier than usual back in late November. The 500 mb low north of Alaska has been near the strongest on record since the spring. Almost like a rebound off the great blocking pattern we had last winter. This pattern has coincided with the record mid-latitude ridging driving the -PDO and +AMO.
  19. bluewave
    It just came out. One of the strongest July CGT patterns on record. This was the opposite of what we have had with past developing super El Niños. The strong ridge north of Hawaii lead to the big warming there and the steep -PDO drop. Seasonal model runs from May completely missed this pattern. So the main question now is what caused such a strong disconnect between the El Niño tropical forcing and the mid-latitude pattern? While most 2020s years have seen the -PDO peak during the summer and move more toward neutral in the winter, even a lingering 10% to 20% atmospheric -PDO state into the winter would be a first for such a strong east based event. My guess is that if this were to have some influence into next winter, it would probably lead to some type of shift in the state of the Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. Not really expecting the seasonal models to be of much help here. While we know that all past super El Niño events have featured warmer winters in the East, the details of where the strongest ridge axis sets up will provide the finer details. A strong +PDO atmospheric east based super event like 1997-1998 was very warm. This event is even stronger and starting out with more of a -PDO atmospheric state than other developing super El Niños. So we’ll have to monitor if the ridge axis remains further south or east than past super El Niños. But even a traditional super El Niño ridge axis south of Hudson Bay is warm on its own. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-05825-6
  20. bluewave
    NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. Berkeley Earth uses the 1850-1900 period along with Copernicus and the Met Office. 1951-1980 was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off. So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/ The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations. The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available. Winter National Temperature Departures and Long-term Trend, 1948–2025
  21. bluewave
    I am not sure there is need strong disagreement between us since the climate period keeps updating every 10 years. So each super El Niño at the time was based on the most recent prior 30 year period ending at the start of each new decade. I just checked the 30 year climatology from 1941-1970 in NYC and it didn’t change during 1961-1990 for the winters. Ultimately, it’s the rankings based on the entire climatology period which are the closest to reality. They probably should just have left the departures fixed at 1951-1980 which was our last stable temperature period before the warming accelerated. But since model forecasts use departures based on 1991-2020 this decade, we use them. I include rankings as often as possible since updating every 10 years in a rapidly warming climate masks the increase by normalizing the new much higher temperatures. So an average temperature month during the 2020s would have been would have been a warm month based on older more fixed climatology.
  22. bluewave
    The climatology period for the 1997-1998 super El Nino was 1961-1990. They don’t have 1941-1970 climatology maps on that site for 1972-1973. There also isn’t an 1951-1980 option for 1982-1983. So I used the closest time period that they offered at the site.
  23. bluewave
    Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time.
  24. bluewave
  25. bluewave
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