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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Yeah, the La Ninas have been getting weaker following super El Niños since the early 1970s. This past La Niña was the weakest on record following the 2023-2024 super El Niño. Also the first time that Nino 1+2 didn’t fully cool off between super El Niño events. This lead to the more Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA. While the STJ and Nino 1+2 warming were relatively weak vs the Northern Stream, the Gulf Coast got an historic snowstorm in January 2025. Super El Niño ONI and the lowest ONI in the years following NDJ 72…..+2.1 NDJ 73……-2.0 NDJ 82…….+2.2 NDJ 84…….-1.1 NDJ 97…..+2.4 NDJ 99…..-1.7 NDJ 15……+2.8 NDJ 17…..-0.9 NDJ 23…..+2.1 NDJ 25…..-0.5
  2. bluewave
    Multiple record highs on Thursday with a drought upgrade across the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 236 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 97 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2000. RECORDS FOR THE NEWARK NJ AREA GO BACK TO 1931. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 96 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 231 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. In New Jersey, severe drought expanded across much of the northern portion of the state and into New York and eastern Pennsylvania. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southeastern New York, while moderate drought expanded in southern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Severe drought also expanded across eastern Massachusetts, eastern Rhode Island, and portions of eastern Maryland. Extreme drought was introduced in southern New Jersey and expanded into Delaware and eastern Maryland. A combination of short- and long-term drought is affecting agriculture as well as groundwater and surface water resources throughout the region.
  3. bluewave
    It appears that the -PDO through the warm pool east of Japan and active MJO 4-7 caused the Aleutian low to split into two weaker low pressure centers. Probably why the -1.5 RONI was so far behind the ONI. But for the Great Lakes into Northeast the El Nino ridge was even stronger than would be expected with a +2.1 ONI. Could also be the general expansion of mid-latitude ridges leading to the lack of a strong trough response in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
  4. bluewave
    Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions. So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.
  5. bluewave
    The 850 mb temperatures today near +20C and downslope westerly flow will support 97-99° at the warm spots with enough sun. Seeing some clouds in forecast today. But more sun could support a few local warm spots making a run at 100°.
  6. bluewave
    Yeah, the big story is that these extreme ridges are making seasonal forecasting very challenging. There have been at least 17instances of +10 or greater temperature months from December to March since December 2015. This is against the warmest 1991-2020 means which is even more impressive. In the old days these would happen much less frequently like in March 2012 and January 2006. When viewing the seasonal guidance in the fall there wasn’t any indication that these extreme months were in the forecast. I can remember looking at the EPS weeklies mid to late November 2015 and just seeing the stock El Niño forecasts of warm along the Northern Tier and cooler to the south. No indication at all of the historic +13.3 was incoming for places like NYC. A big part of that was the MJO 5 interacting with the super El Niño to produce the extreme December ridge in the East which wasn’t forecast. The other examples below really weren’t forecast well too far in advance. Some had extreme MJO event and others just stuck weather patterns like this past winter into spring. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  7. bluewave
    Yeah, there is an overlap going on so the line where one starts and the other ends may not be that clear. All the mid-latitude ridges between 30N and 60N have been getting stronger regardless of El Niño or La Niña. So perhaps that’s why the Aleutian low and mid-Atlantic and Southeast lows during recent super El Niño events have been getting weaker than in the past. Plus the weekly to seasonal guidance has been missing this ridge expansion in their long range forecasts. So we keep getting all these near to 10°+departure warm months close to the core of the ridges that aren’t being forecast beyond 15 days.
  8. bluewave
    I agree with most of what you just said. But I have a partial disagreement with you on what constitutes a sensible mid latitude response. The response has two components. The first is the strength of the 500mb ridge across Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS. During the 2023-2024 super El Niño this ridge was more expansive than the 1997-1998 super El Niño pressing further south toward the mid-Atlantic and enhancing the warmth. So this wasn’t reflected in the RONI only peaking at 1.5. But the RONI was more representative of the weaker Aleutian low and Mid-Atlantic to Southeast low. We can also see the RONI inconsistency with the 2015-2016 super El Niño in another way. While it was better matched with the ONI than 2023-2024, the Aleutian low was still much weaker than 1997-1998. Plus the rainfall response was much less in places like CA along with more of a ridge in the Eastern CONUS than past super El Niños.
  9. bluewave
    It’s a bit like relying on temperature departures rather than absolute rankings in a warming climate. But the global temperatures will respond to the absolute Nino 3.4 SSTs rather than the departures which update to reflect the warming baseline each decade. The value of RONI is probably more for La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool has been defining La Nina’s more than the Nino region cold pool of the past. But the absolute strength of La Niña measured through Nino 3.4 SSTs has been shrinking since we haven’t had a strong La Niña by actual SSTs since 2010-2011.
  10. bluewave
    Hopefully, the clouds and convection can prevent another run on 100° so soon after the one in May. The only model with upper 90s in our area is the Euro. But it has less clouds and convection than the other models. It could be correct if the convection underperforms with the ongoing drought. The model forecasts highlight the big temperature divide as early as Thursday.
  11. bluewave
    Ultimately El Niños are ranked by their jump in global temperatures. 2023-2024 had a larger rise in global temperatures than previous super El Niño events. So relying on the RONI metric is inadequate to describe these much stronger events. Even the authors of the paper which RONI is based on said the scale may need to be reevaluated in the future. So I view it as an experimental index which should be used alongside the traditional ONI scale. It can be used for assessing features like El Niño rainfall and the strength of the Aleutian Low. But ONI was closer to reality on temperatures during 2023-2024 than RONI. Plus the 500 mb ridge over North America was more in line with ONI. 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS which none of the models beyond 15 days forecast. The warmth across the Northern Tier even exceed some of the previous super El Niño events. Seasonal models don’t have the ability to see extremes. Extreme warmth has been greatly exceeding extreme cold. So the long range models miss extreme warmth much more often since extreme cold has become so rare. About the only thing I use the seasonal models for are the Nino plumes once we get past the spring predictability barrier in early June. But we knew something really big was coming months ago with the record WWBs and kelvin waves. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml As they previously cautioned, in the future, if there are significant divergences between the tropical mean state and trends in the Niño indices, then this index will need to be re-evaluated. We hope this work motivates additional studies and simulations of these indices in a changing climate.
  12. bluewave
    Those seasonal model 2m temperatures typically run way too cool especially with super El Ninos like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016. This has been the case with all the seasonal models. Even the forecasts issued in November were still too cool NMME DJF 2023-2024 long range forecast issued August 2023 Verification DJF 2015-2016 long range forecast issued August 2015 Verification
  13. bluewave
    More traditional June El Niño 500 mb pattern forecast for next week as this record El Niño continues to intensify.
  14. bluewave
    Looks like some cooler and hopefully wetter weather is on the way for next week following more unusual warmth this week for a developing El Niño. A ridge out West and a trough near the Great Lakes is a closer match to El Niño June expectations. It’s forecast to occur right as this event is setting records for the warmest Nino 3.4 SST on record for early June.
  15. bluewave
    This past November was in 2025. Part of the reason this El Niño is becoming record breaking so early on is due to the accumulation of record SST warmth in the WPAC. The WWBs beginning in November 2025 started the kelvin waves and warm push eastward. These are record breaking WWBs that we haven’t seen since the late 1990s. So a record WPAC warm pool initiation plus record WWBs equal a record El Niño. Also note how Nino 1+2 never fully cooled off after the last super El Niño in 2023-2024. So it’s no surprise that this event is becoming so strong given the much warmer background state that it’s originating in. Past climate reconstructions along with modeling support the idea that it’s normal for El Niños to become more frequent and stronger as the world warms. So the 2020s will be the first decade with super El Niños over +2.0° occurring only 3 years apart. https://apnews.com/article/4379af505f994766a4fa332e9c7a923a https://www.colorado.edu/today/2024/09/25/1-2-el-nino-events-could-be-extreme-mid-century https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.354.6317.1210
  16. bluewave
    Looks like there could have been some small hail near the Jones Beach West End.
  17. bluewave
    Yeah, we can go back to last November to see the very beginning of this record El Niño event for so early in the season. The WWB over the Maritime Continent was essentially tied for the strongest on record during the month of November. It began to give that record warm pool a nudge to the east with the record WWBs expanding eastward in the following months.
  18. bluewave
    Nino 3.4 getting to 29.27 is really impressive so early in this event. The all-time record was 29.82 back on 11-17-15. They may need to extend the scale since the current forecast peak over is 30°C.
  19. bluewave
    The NJ warm spots away from the sea breeze are tied for the most 90° days by June 6th. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-06-06 6 0 - 2021-06-06 6 1 2 2023-06-06 4 0 - 2000-06-06 4 13 5 2022-06-06 3 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-06-06 8 1 2 2018-06-06 7 0 - 2010-06-06 7 15 3 2021-06-06 5 0 - 2013-06-06 5 0 - 2002-06-06 5 5 - 2001-06-06 5 7 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-06-06 8 0 - 1991-06-06 8 0 - 1986-06-06 8 0 2 2010-06-06 7 0 3 2021-06-06 6 0 - 2002-06-06 6 0 - 1936-06-06 6 0
  20. bluewave
    Similar recent theme of the wind gusts being more impressive than the actual rainfall amounts. Another very warm with below average rainfall pattern coming up this week. Hopefully, the models are correct about the wetter pattern with the Great Lakes trough during week 2 approaching the summer solstice.
  21. bluewave
    Warm spots away from the sea breeze influence like Harrison and Newark are currently in 1st and 2nd place for the most 90° days by June 5th. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ 90° days by June 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-06-05 8 0 2 2018-06-05 7 0 3 2010-06-05 6 15 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 90° days by June 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1991-06-05 8 0 - 1986-06-05 8 0 2 2026-06-05 7 0 3 2010-06-05 6 0 - 2002-06-05 6 0 - 1936-06-05 6 0
  22. bluewave
    Yeah, we could have active forcing from the WPAC and CPAC over to the EPAC with how extensive the warm pool is forecast to become. Notice how the pattern from the Great Lakes to the Northeast wasn’t all that different between 1997-1998 and 2023-2024. Forcing either focused near the EPAC in 1997-1998 or more split like 2023-2024 between the WPAC and CPAC along with the EPAC yielded roughly similar results for the Great Lakes and Northeast.
  23. bluewave
    Record breaking WWB for this time of year driving those record Nino 3.4 SSTs.
  24. bluewave
    The core of the 30C+ SSTs will probably shift over closer to MJO 7 and Nino 4 as the current forecast would surpass even 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 in those locations. The Euro has Nino 4 exceeding +2.0 which would be a first if it verifies. The previous Nino 4 record was 30.21C and +1.51 back in November 2023. Perhaps some areas could approach +31.0C. Even Nino 3.4 could get close to +30.0 C like in 2015-2016. The Euro has the warm pool east of Japan continuing. The IOD peaks in October and the SSTs near the Maritime Continent begin to rebound by December. So an historic and extensive area of extreme SSTs from the WPAC into the ENSO regions being forecast. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii 2015 11 23.93 2.28 27.95 2.84 30.13 1.44 2023 11 23.73 2.07 27.20 2.10 30.21 1.51
  25. bluewave
    Very impressive progression of model forecasts over the last several months. Now we are getting past the spring predictability barrier. So this most recent forecast update incorporates the big increase in upper ocean heat and continuing WWBs.
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