bluewave

The GFS upgrade back in 2019 caused it to incorrectly forecast KU snowstorms at times when there was no other model support. This problem still hasn’t been addressed since it may just be an inherent model bias. We are coming up on the 1st anniversary of its 964mb benchmark blizzard that never occurred last January 12th which the Euro forecast correctly showed was a GFS model error. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/ For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

The best snow cover extent relative to the means so far this winter was back in late November and early December prior to the big warm up for much of the CONUS outside the Northeast and Great Lakes.

That was the most accurate 168 hr Euro control run of all time. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

This is why you have to use the ensemble means which never really showed a big snowstorm threat here. What happens in the age of social media is that someone takes a random outlier model run and uses it to justify that there is going to be a big disruptive snowstorm. I like a big snowstorm as much as anyone. So it’s very disappointing to turn on YouTube and see multiple videos with over the top big snowstorm titles when the ensemble means have much less dramatic solutions. Part of this is conditioning from the 2010 to 2018 era when it seems like every time we had a ridge out West and a trough in the East there was a major East Coast KU snowstorm. But that era was defined by a weaker Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet that allowed the Southern Stream to take the lead. So jet stream dynamics have changed since 2018-2019 making it harder to get big snowstorms over 12” for at least some portion of the area.

Very difficult to pull off a phase like that with such a dominant Northern Stream pattern and lack of cold high pressure in place.

That is probably due to the old weather instruments being in a warmer area with less cold air drainage than where the current FOK ASOS is located.

Our area generally doesn’t get big East Coast snowstorms when there is a strong kicker coming through the Great Lakes and a weak cold high pressure in between.

The 1960s had the best Long Island and surrounding area radiational cooling following the big snowstorms of that era. for January 21, 1961 through January 31, 1961 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY SHRUB OAK COOP -25 NY CARMEL COOP -24 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP -21 CT WESTBROOK COOP -21 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -20 CT WATERBURY RADIO WBRY COOP -19 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -18 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP -18 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP -17 NY SUFFERN COOP -16 CT DANBURY COOP -16 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP -16 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN -15 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP -14 CT GROTON COOP -14 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -13 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -12 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP -12 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP -11 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP -10 NY SCARSDALE COOP -10 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -10 NJ ELIZABETH COOP -10 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP -10 NY WEST POINT COOP -7 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP -7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP -7 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -7 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP -2 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -2 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP -2 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -1 NJ PATERSON COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN -1 Monthly Snowfall Data for January 1961 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WARWICK COOP 45.2 NY GARDNERVILLE COOP 44.0 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 37.6 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 37.2 NY WEST POINT COOP 35.9 CT WOLCOTT RESERVOIR COOP 33.5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 32.7 NJ PATERSON COOP 32.5 NJ MAHWAH COOP 32.0 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 31.1 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 31.0 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 31.0 NY SCARSDALE COOP 30.9 NY CARMEL COOP 30.0 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 29.0 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 28.0 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 27.7 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 27.5 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 27.5 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 27.4 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 27.0 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 26.2 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 25.0 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 24.0 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 22.8 CT WATERBURY RADIO WBRY COOP 22.5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22.2 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 21.6 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 21.5 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 21.5 NJ CEDAR GROVE COOP 21.0 NY SUFFERN COOP 20.6 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 20.5 NJ IRVINGTON COOP 20.5 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 20.5 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 20.2 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 20.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 20.0 CT DANBURY COOP 20.0 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 20.0 CT GROTON COOP 20.0 Data for February 7, 1967 through February 14, 1967 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY STEWART FIELD WBAN -20 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -16 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP -16 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP -15 CT WESTBROOK COOP -15 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN -14 NY CARMEL COOP -12 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP -12 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP -11 CT DANBURY COOP -10 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP -10 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -10 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -10 CT GROTON COOP -9 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -9 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP -9 NY SUFFERN COOP -8 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP -7 NY SCARSDALE COOP -6 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN -6 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP -5 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN -5 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP -4 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP -4 NY WEST POINT COOP -4 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP -4 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -2 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP -2 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP -2 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP -1 Monthly Snowfall Data for February 1967 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT WOLCOTT RESERVOIR COOP 34.2 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 33.2 CT EASTON RESERVOIR COOP 32.5 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 32.3 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 32.1 NY WARWICK COOP 32.1 CT DANBURY COOP 31.6 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 30.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 30.5 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 29.6 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 29.5 CT TRAP FALLS RESERVOIR COOP 29.5 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 29.1 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 28.6 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 28.5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 28.1 NY MINEOLA COOP 28.0 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 27.8 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 27.7 CT WESTBROOK COOP 27.6 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 27.5 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 27.3 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 27.0 NY CARMEL COOP 27.0 NJ PATERSON COOP 26.8 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 26.6 NY WEST POINT COOP 26.3 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 26.0 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 25.5 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25.4 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 25.3 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 25.3 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 25.3 NY GARDNERVILLE COOP 25.0 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 24.6 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 24.3 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 24.3 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 24.0 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 24.0 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 23.8 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 23.7 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 23.6 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 20.5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 20.0

Same to you.

At least Eurasia is trying to bounce off their record low snowcover extent as North America approaches record lows for mid-January with this current warm up.

Yeah, EPS has a transition back to colder again following this warmer pattern.

Yeah, the average temperatures at the major reporting stations from EWR to ISP so far this winter are in the 33° to 34° range. We finished December at -4.6° for the 7 station average. Sometimes based on the earlier climate periods we can get similar temperatures at the stations but there can be more departure variability. This is why I focus more on rankings and actual temperatures since departures are based on a rising mean each new 10 year update. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 33.4 0 2025-01-08 36.9 0 2024-01-08 43.0 0 2023-01-08 40.4 0 2022-01-08 42.5 0 2021-01-08 37.9 0 2020-01-08 38.1 0 2019-01-08 39.4 0 2018-01-08 31.0 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 33.9 0 2025-01-08 37.0 0 2024-01-08 43.0 0 2023-01-08 40.4 0 2022-01-08 42.2 0 2021-01-08 38.8 0 2020-01-08 38.7 0 2019-01-08 40.1 0 2018-01-08 31.4 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 34.3 0 2025-01-08 37.9 0 2024-01-08 42.9 0 2023-01-08 40.4 0 2022-01-08 43.5 0 2021-01-08 40.6 0 2020-01-08 39.2 0 2019-01-08 40.6 0 2018-01-08 32.5 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 33.4 0 2025-01-08 38.2 0 2024-01-08 41.4 0 2023-01-08 39.2 0 2022-01-08 41.8 0 2021-01-08 38.3 0 2020-01-08 38.6 0 2019-01-08 39.9 0 2018-01-08 31.3 0

Colder start to winter than recent years but not as cold as 17-18 was through January 8th. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY December 1st through January 8th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-08 34.1 0 2025-01-08 35.8 0 2024-01-08 40.7 0 2023-01-08 38.6 0 2022-01-08 40.3 0 2021-01-08 36.9 0 2020-01-08 37.3 0 2019-01-08 38.2 0 2018-01-08 30.3 0

Significant increase in high tide or sunny day flooding across the areas in Florida which have experienced the greatest sea level rise. https://southeastfloridaclimatecompact.org/initiative/climate-indicators-high-tide-flooding/

It’s an outlier among all the available guidance.

The shrinking Northern Hemisphere cold pool is leading to these Arctic outbreaks covering a smaller geographic region than they used to.

Brian McNoldy ‪@bmcnoldy.bsky.social‬ Follow The average water level measured at Virginia Key (near #Miami) set a new monthly record high in October, which is also the new *all-time* record high month. I also feel confident that it was the highest monthly water level there since the last interglacial period... ~120,000 years ago. ALT ALT 8:12 AM · Nov 2, 2025 Everybody can

You would want to see the Northern Stream across the Great Lakes with all those lows racing east back off in order to give the Southern Stream an opportunity to lead.

While numerous locations in the U.S. experienced their warmest December on record, spots like Fairbanks had their 8th coldest December. So the magnitudes of the warmth was greater in the the West. But Juneau was able to record their 2nd coldest December which was very impressive. Parts of Canada had their coldest December since 1980 but the coldest winters on record occurred in the colder era before then. But the warmth in recent winters in Canada was of a higher magnitude than the cold this month was. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow Fairbanks, AK, finishes December 2025 with a monthly temperature departure of 18.2F below normal. The average high temp was -14.5F and the average low temp was -31.1F. This makes it the 8th coldest December on record (1904-present) and the coldest since 1980. @alaskawx.bsky.social 9:02 PM · Dec 31, 2025

That may not have been the case since the anomalies were based on 1991-2020 means which were the warmest on record. Notice the warm departures in the Southwest were sufficient for many sites to record their warmest December on record. Those warm departures were only lower due to the much warmer 1991-2020 normals. The cold departures to the north would also be smaller based of the previous colder 30 year means. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature ranking (since 1895). A lot of the West had their warmest December on record and nearly everywhere out west had a top 5 warmest December. 10:26 PM · Jan 1, 2026 Everybody can reply

An easy way to classify the NESIS storms in the list that I posted going back to 1995-1996 is that they are what is called benchmark storm tracks out near 40°/70°. We live in a part of the country that requires Atlantic moisture in order to achieve our heaviest snowstorms. When the primary storm track to our west like since 2018-2019, it results in less snow for our area. From 2010 to 2018 the primary storm track was located to our Southeast allowing plenty of Atlantic moisture to result in much heavier snowstorms. Those coastal storms also got a moisture boost from the Gulf Stream warming about 7° since the 1980s when the major snows were less frequent. The one common denominator in our snowfall since the 1990s has been shorter periods of productive storm tracks for our area. So in order for our area to reach 25” to 30” of snowfall since then we needed heavy coastal snowstorms. The simple math is that if we get shorter snowy periods, each period needs to be maximized in order for the season to get closer to 25”. Prior to the 1990s there were several seasons that didn’t get really heavy snowstorms but had extended periods of light to moderate snows. So a series of light to moderate events could get us to close to normal on the season. This hasn’t been the case over the last 30 years. Every 25”+ season had at least 25” of snow over this period featured at least one 10-20” or 20-30” snowfall event for a portion of the area from EWR to ISP. Some years like 2013 we had a 30-40” single event. When we have a dominant Northern Stream and storm track close to our area and to our west the ceiling is closer to 4-8” and generally under 10” for most spots like we saw twice this past December. This December had the best maximized southeast moving clipper tracks that portions of our area have ever seen for the month. We can notice the storm track pattern shifting as we moved into January. It’s more back to recent years through the Great Lakes but not the southward diving clipper tracks. In recent years the maximum snowfall on these tracks have been mostly 1-3” or 2-4” type events and not the multiple 4-8” style events we had in December. So my guess going forward is that we will need at least one 10-20” maximum accumulation coastal storm in any part of the OKX zones for any of the major sites from EWR to ISP to reach 25”. But even then not all of the sites would be guaranteed to reach 25” like we saw in 2022 when the coastal tracks favored Long Island and not NJ. So more of a necessary but not always sufficient situation.

State College has seen one of the steepest snowfall declines in the Northeast since the 1960s when they lost the Miller A track just east of the Apps around 20 years ago.

This is probably the first time that Western North America experienced such an extreme temperature difference during the month of December. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3mbnq36jn6c2y Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow December 2025 temperature departure from normal for the U.S. and Canada. 12:41 AM · Jan 5, 2026 Everybody can

The snowfall data for all our major reporting sites including EWR, NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP shows a similar pattern since the mid 90s. Every year that any of those stations reached 25”+ featured at least one NESIS KU scale event. Since all the stations show the same pattern, it takes the NYC undermeasurement issues out of the equation. I will use all the years since 1995-1996 that Newark reached 25”+ and show the NESIS events since they are reasonably close to NYC and use a professional contract observer. While the KUs have been necessary, they haven’t always been sufficient for Newark to reach 25”. This was the case in 2022 when Islip was closer to the KU tracks and Newark was a little too far west to go 25”+. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis All 25”+ seasons at Newark since 1995-1996 and KU events 20-21…..45.7”……12-14 to 12-18…Cat 2….1-30 to 2-3 cat 3 17-18……39.4”…….1-3 to 1-5…3-1….Cat 1….Cat 1…3-11…Cat 2….3-20 to 3-22 Cat 1 16-17…….30.0”……1-4 to 1-8….Cat 2….2-9 to 2-10 Cat 1…3-12 to 3-15 Cat 3 15-16…….32.8”…..1-22 to 1-24 Cat 4 14-15……..46.4”…..1-25 to 1-28…Cat 2…1-29 to 2-3…Cat 3…2-8 to 2-10 Cat 1..2-20 to 2-22 Cat 1…3-3 to 3-5…Cat 1 13-14……61.1”…..12-13 to 12-16 Cat 2…12-30 to 1-3….Cat 2…1-29 to 2-4 Cat 3..2-4 to 2-5 Cat 2..2-11 to 2-14 Cat 3 12-13….29.5”…..2-7 to 2-10 Cat 3…3-4 to 3-9 Cat 2 10-11….68.2”….12-24 to 12-28….Cat 3….1-9 to 1-13 Cat 3….1-26 to 1-27 Cat 1 09-10…47.9”…..12-18 to 12-21 Cat 2…2-4 to 2-7 Cat 3….2-9 to 2-11 Cat 3…2-23 to 2-28 Cat 3 08-09…27.1”….1-17 to 1-19 Cat 2…3-1 to 3-3 Cat 1 05-06…..37.9”…..2-12 to 2-13 Cat 3 04-05….43.4”…..1-21 to 1-24 Cat 4…Cat 2 03-04….47.8”….12-14 to 12-16…Cat 2….1-27 to 1-28 Cat 1 02-03…..53.1”….2-6 to 2-8 Cat 1….2-15 to 2-18 Cat 4….3-3 to 3-6 Cat 1 00-01……39.3”….12-30 to 12-31…Cat 1…..1-19 to 1-21 Cat 1 95-96….78.4”…..1-6 to 1-8…Cat 5 with numerous other heavy coastal benchmark snowstorms

Following the storm track shift in 2018-2019, we were only able to generate KU tracks in December 2020, late January into early February 2021 and January 2022. The complete opposite of 2002 to 2018 when coastal KU tracks were much more frequent. Even during the 1970s and 1980s we would get KU tracks every few years. Like in 1978, 1979, 1982, 1983, and 1987. The difference back then was that EWR,NYC, LGA, JFK, and ISP didn’t exclusively need KU tracks to reach around 25” on the season. So my guess going forward is that if we don’t see a revival of KU tracks, then the major sites around NYC and nearby NJ will finish this year with below average snowfall under 25”. The colder spots near the North Shore of Long Island could potentially nickle and dime there way to 25” since they currently have the highest totals. But some of those spots may actually average closer to 30” between the major observing sites where LI gains some elevation. I don’t think anyone on Long Island is going to reach 30” without a major benchmark storm later in this season.