bluewave

Will be interesting to see if we can make it two consecutive years with elements of the winter pattern emerging in November.

Some of the models clear NJ out enough this afternoon for another run at 80°. Would serve to enhance the instability ahead of the severe storm potential later today. Frost vs first freeze for Sunday morning at the usual cool spots will be contingent on whether the winds can go calm for radiational cooling under the big high.

Yeah, starting to see the SW CONUS trough develop in response to the forcing extending into that area from the EPAC.

Multi-year La Ninas prior to 2018-2019 didn’t produce persistent record ridging east of Japan leading to the record upper ocean heat through the 2020s. So are correct this pattern is not being caused by the canonical -PDO of the past which was defined more by cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than historic warmth east of Japan. It’s a whole new type of pattern outside the typical PDO. This new type of mid-latitude ridging pattern was able to persist through the spring into the present. It’s described in the papers as Pan-Basin warming overshadowing the robust Pacific Decadal oscillation. So it’s the overlapping influence of this new pattern combined with the the super El Niño forcing leading to the ridges being much stronger further to the south than has been in the case during past developing super El Niño springs into the fall. Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z Remarkable Changes in the Dominant Modes of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event.

With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS. So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s.

I don’t think we were discussing the same exact parameters. The Nino 3 Euro forecast is nearly identical to the JMA keeping the Nino 3 anomalies over +4 into late January or February. The Nino 1+2 forecasts for both the JMA and Euro are similar. The reason I posted the JMA is that the Euro doesn’t have an absolute forecast on their site only the anomalies. So we have to work out the Euro absolutes manually. So even if the actual Nino 1+2 absolutes top out at say 29.5 C, there will likely be +30C actual SSTs just to the north near Central America or even near southern Mexico. You can see the forcing bridge on the Euro developing linking Nino 3.4 all the way over to Central America. This is signaling how far east the +30C warm pool is going to be similar to the JMA and Euro absolutes.

I have been taking about the importance of the +30 C warm pool for years now. Back over the summer we were discussing the potential of the +30 C warm pool off of Mexico linking up with the Nino +3 +30C warm pool. So not sure what resistance you are referring to.

It’s great that the JMA has a chart showing the actual forecast SSTs. The current run now has the potential of the +30C warm pool getting pushed all the way east into Nino 1+2. Since Nino 1+2 reaches its annual peak from late winter into spring, at least one daily +4 in February would be possible since the average starts to climb above 26C. Nino 3 is similar to these values. So it’s a good bet the +30C warm pool will make it at least as far east as Nino 3. The 30C warm pool is usually the area where the tropical forcing tends to gravitate to. So while the ENSO anomalies will probably peak in December, the absolutes may not peak in the Nino 3 and 4 regions until February. So this first +30C warm pool getting so far east may produce a delayed El Niño peak forcing effect due to the historic buildup of record EPAC warmth. The JMA forecast charts show the actusl SSTs leveling off in December in Nino 3.4 and continuing to rise right into February in Nino 3 and 1+2. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/indices/3-mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php

At least another period of extended onshore flow with the big high to the north and developing low somewhere underneath.

Right on cue the models are slowing the frontal passage for Friday into Saturday. This has been the theme all year from weekend winter snowstorms to thunderstorms and nor’easters into the fall. So it looks like we’ll have more measurable rain here early Saturday. Luckily not the all day washout that we just had this past Sunday. But just enough light morning showers keep the measurable weekend precipitation streak going before we clear out during the day Saturday. New run Old run

Usually when the POPS are 20% or less they leave it off the point and clicks. But they will include it in the SFT. Today had only 10s or 20s on the POPS on the SFT. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=SFT&format=CI&version=4&glossary=0

All the models had scattered showers and clouds today. The highs in many areas will probably be in the next hour. Seeing several 80° readings with the clearing in NJ now.

The main issue China is having with renewable energy is that the transmission infrastructure hasn’t been able to keep pace. So much of the clean energy has gone unused. This has lead to the continuing reliance on coal. While AI data centers also utilize large amounts of electricity, it would be interesting to see if AI can eventually figure out a way to transition away from fossil fuels. We know that AI hasn’t been getting very good press lately due to the haphazard implementation. It would be ironic if AI could lead to the development of a new exotic clean energy source. Even a more effective way to manage wind and solar would be a welcome AI achievement. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/china-renewable-curtailments China is leading the world on renewable energy, last year installing more wind and solar capacity than every other country put together. But its buildout has unfolded at such a ferocious pace that China is now generating much more electricity than its power grid can handle, meaning that huge amounts of clean power are going unused. When the grid is at capacity, operators must reject electricity from wind and solar plants to prevent overloads and blackouts. In the first six months of this year, China rejected 360 terawatt-hours of clean energy, enough to power Mexico for a year, according to a report from Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “Had this electricity been absorbed, the additional power supply could have met all demand growth and allowed coal power generation to fall,” analysts said. The problem, analysts say, is that China lacks the transmission infrastructure necessary to ferry its abundant clean energy from where it is generated to where it is needed. Also stymying the consumption of clean energy is a policy that guarantees the purchase of electricity from newly built coal power plants. Despite a pledge to shift away from coal, China continues to permit and construct new generators. “Coal capacity is still growing because of legacy approvals and policy protections, even as plants run fewer hours and large volumes of clean electricity go unused,” said Qi Qin, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. The new report finds that China rejected 26.1 percent of its wind and solar output in the first half of this year, far more than official figures would suggest. Other countries with large amounts of renewable energy are also dealing with wasted power. In India, clean power capacity just surpassed fossil fuel capacity for the first time, but transmission infrastructure has yet to catch up. On a single day in March, India wasted 34 gigawatt-hours of clean electricity, enough to power about 5 million homes, according to an analysis from the think tank Ember. The core of the problem, analysts said, “is a growing mismatch between the pace of renewable energy development and the readiness of the transmission infrastructure.”

Looks like our area averaged out will finish around the 15th warmest first half of fall. The most impressive warmth has been to our west. This theme looks to continue for the next 10 days.

Main October ridge axis continues to remain much further south into the CONUS for an El Niño as we have seen since May. But starting to get some indication that the more typical SW trough will emerge in the means as we move further into mid-October. So the final monthly composite will probably have a split NP low between the Bering Sea and the SW CONUS.

It’s no surprise that the July to September WWBs were also stronger than 1997.

Just be grateful that we didn’t get the tree damage they just got around Great Falls. Record warmth start to October followed by an early record snowstorm. Rachael’s moisture streamed up into that area and met air cold enough for heavy wet snow with the trees still leafed out. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBYb7eyjY-k Climatological Data for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - October 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-10-01 62 33 47.5 -3.9 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-02 77 41 59.0 8.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-03 71 38 54.5 3.9 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-04 82 36 59.0 8.9 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-05 85 52 68.5 18.8 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-06 81 46 63.5 14.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-07 76 44 60.0 11.2 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-08 80 43 61.5 13.2 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-09 81 54 67.5 19.7 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2026-10-10 56 31 43.5 -3.9 21 0 1.29 6.4 0 2026-10-11 32 30 31.0 -15.9 34 0 0.83 9.3 8 2026-10-12 34 29 31.5 -15.0 33 0 0.03 M M Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.7 2026-10-10 through 2026-10-11 0 2 12.4 2020-10-17 through 2020-10-18 0

Still has an east based El Nino continuing in Nino 1+2 and 3 with strong WWBs by June. But notice how the CFS is much too cool currently in Nino 1+2. So we’ll probably have to rely more on the Euro which is closer to the current Nino 1+2.

Impressive how most of the weekends this year have had at least some measurable precipitation. Next significant storm appears to be set for Friday. But the way things have been going, we could have some lingering rain into early Saturday.

Even when we had our colder months from November to February, they were getting record +10 months in the West. So the geographic footprint of the cold was very small in the East. The shrinking size of the winter cold pools since the 2015-2016 super El Niño is part of the reason that 2025-2026 was our first colder longer term temperature winter since 2014-2015. Prior to the 2015-2016 winter, we would usually get a cold winter every few years. This was the first 11 year hiatus between cold winters. The chart below is for the entire Northeast which has been in the same boat as our local area.

We don’t know the specific details that far out. But the latest Euro continues the record WWBs at least into next March. This is why the model is trying to develop a 2nd Nino 1+2 warming peak near the end of the run like the CFS.

The first week of October finished near the warmest on record for the CONUS. The average for the CONUS from October 1-7 on Prism was 64.54° or +5.2°. So we’ll have to wait a while longer to get the final number. October 2026 through the 7th….64.54° +5.2° Top 7 Warmest October for CONUS 1963…59.34° 2024…58.93° 1947….58.50° 2016….57.45° 1950…..57.45° 2015…..57.24° 2021…..56.95°

Even though the CFS is currently too cool in Nino 1+2, the updated seasonal model update still has an east based El Niño lingering into next June with strong WWBs continuing.

October is continuing the seasonal model error for at least one month out. The seasonal models from early September had the typical -EPO October El Nino ridge near Alaska and NW Canada.This has been the seasonal model forecast error since May. The month to date has the 500mb ridge shifted further south over the CONUS with lower heights near Alaska. The next week will add to this pattern lowering heights more near Alaska and maintaining the CONUS ridge. This will be the furthest south ridge position for an El Nino October even when just using the 1972,1982,1997,2015, and 2023 super composite. Month to date Forecast through October 19th October forecast issued in early September October El Niño composite