bluewave

NASA GISS uses 1951-1980 for its departures with Canada going with 1961-1990. Berkeley Earth uses the 1850-1900 period along with Copernicus and the Met Office. 1951-1980 was the last relatively stable temperature regime before emissions and temperatures really took off. So using warmer 1991-2020 climate normals masks the warming relative to the past. https://science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-observatory/world-of-change/global-temperatures/ The NASA GISS team chose the period of 1951-1980 as its baseline largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort also began around 1980, so the most recent 30-year period was 1951-1980. Their objective is to provide an estimate of temperature change that could be compared with predictions of global climate change in response to atmospheric carbon dioxide, aerosols, and changes in solar activity. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/climate-trends-variability/trends-variations.html Much of Canadian economic and social activity is climate dependent. Understanding how Canada’s climate is changing, in the context of global climate change, is important for developing adaptive responses. The Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin (CTVB) helps communicate to Canadians how Canada's climate has changed over the recent past and longer, over the period for which Environment Canada has climate observations. The CTVB describes climate variability through maps of current and past departures from the mean (the 30-year average 1961-1990) temperature and precipitation conditions, both seasonally and annually. This approach provides visualization of the extent to which temperature and precipitation vary above and below longer term average conditions. Maps are presented for each season and year. The data are then analyzed to see if there are detectable trends of longer terms against this backdrop of climate variability for Canada as a whole, and for 11 climate regions. This information is presented as graphs with trend lines to assess climate change over the period of record, starting in 1948 when nation-wide records became available. Winter National Temperature Departures and Long-term Trend, 1948–2025

I am not sure there is need strong disagreement between us since the climate period keeps updating every 10 years. So each super El Niño at the time was based on the most recent prior 30 year period ending at the start of each new decade. I just checked the 30 year climatology from 1941-1970 in NYC and it didn’t change during 1961-1990 for the winters. Ultimately, it’s the rankings based on the entire climatology period which are the closest to reality. They probably should just have left the departures fixed at 1951-1980 which was our last stable temperature period before the warming accelerated. But since model forecasts use departures based on 1991-2020 this decade, we use them. I include rankings as often as possible since updating every 10 years in a rapidly warming climate masks the increase by normalizing the new much higher temperatures. So an average temperature month during the 2020s would have been would have been a warm month based on older more fixed climatology.

The climatology period for the 1997-1998 super El Nino was 1961-1990. They don’t have 1941-1970 climatology maps on that site for 1972-1973. There also isn’t an 1951-1980 option for 1982-1983. So I used the closest time period that they offered at the site.

Yeah, there weren’t any cold winters in the East with super El Niños relative to the climatology at the time.

You posted recently how you don’t care about the weather patterns beyond your own local area. This isn’t a cheap shot since I am simply pointing out your stated stance. You are the main person in this thread taking cheap shots at others.

Perhaps you lack understanding of my posts and the weather patterns in general is related to your stated disinterest beyond your backyard. Maybe if you broaden out your horizons a bit to encompass the greater climate system your frustration will begin to decline. I know you like the CanSIPS since you post it all the time. So you get triggered when people point out that it’s not a very good model.

Looks like we could see a record ridge approaching 600 DM to our east by later this week. So probably more 90° potential. Could also be our highest dew points of the summer so far from the mid to upper 70s.

First, let’s get something straight right now. The weather and climate isn’t law school. Trying to reduce weather patterns to some type of legalistic definition isn’t going to fly. All we can say is beyond two weeks is that the models lose skill. But they have been making errors in certain types of ways. One is to underestimate the magnitude and even location of the ridges. The other is that the troughs have been verifying weaker. We are currently heading into a super El Niño without precedent. First, the strength is going off the scale. Second, the 500 mb weather patterns are currently in more of -PDO +AMO pattern. This has never happened before. So it’s probably a reasonable guess at this early point that the ridges during the winter will continue verify stronger than the model forecasts like that have most winters over the last decade and the troughs weaker. If you want the exact locations now, then I think you are being unrealistic. Especially since the 500mb pattern is yet to take on a more traditional pattern. So we are going to have to wait and see how close or different the pattern develops going forward. So even if a 10%-20% Niña-like mid-latitude ridge enhancement continues into the winter, it could lead the El Niño ridge pressing further south and east than usual.

How can anyone take the seasonal models at face value for the winter which is 4-6 months away when the May forecast for this June and July only 1-2 months out had such significant errors? This is another example of the models not having much skill beyond the 15 day period. Notice how the ridges in the mid-latitudes verified much stronger leading to the strong -PDO +AMO pattern. The forecasts were going for a general Nino 3.4 correlation which didn’t work out. So it looks like the models are just defaulting to Nino 3.4 climatology for June and July. Back in 2023-2024 the winter forecasts also defaulted to general Nino 3.4 correlations with the ridges verifying much stronger and the troughs weaker. Forecasts from around May 1st June Forecasts June correlation for Nino 3.4 June verification July forecasts July correlation Nino 3.4 July verification

The summer of 1987 was only the 6th warmest summer of the 1980s ranking only around the 60th warmest summer average temperature overall for the CONUS since 1895. The warmest summer from that era was 1988 which was the 12th warmest average temperature for the CONUS. While the summer of 1987 was warmer than the 1982 developing super El Nino, the 500mb and temperature pattern from the Pacific to the Atlantic was a general match for El Nino. Even though there was an area of warmer departures relative to the other regions in portions of the East, other areas from the Pacific to Atlantic did match El Nino expectations. Since you can have a good general match without 100% conformity to the El Nino composite.

First July 31st ever with a +2.46 Nino 3.4 SST anomaly and a -2.03 PDO.

No red herrings involved. My first post showing the warmth this month was based on the warmest 1991-2020 averages. So that is why I kept it for continuity between posts. But your cooler base period doesn’t show any material difference from the main point how much warmer this summer has been than past developing El Niños due to the record ridging from north of Hawaii across the CONUS. So it just seems like you are inventing ways to be argumentative without addressing the main point.

It matches the El Niño composite in most areas from the Pacific to the Atlantic. So a little warmer in the East relative to the rest of the CONUS isn’t really a dealbreaker. This summer so far is much more of an outlier than 1987 was. You have really been stretching to find similarities to this summer which don’t exist.

Looks like August 1st-10th starts out a little warmer than average with above average precipitation.

Fairly average July temperatures due to the much warmer 1991-2020 means across the area. Plus the record smoke for July shaved a bit off the averages and prevented another run over 100°. Several spots came close to their all-time highs earlier in the month. So one of our more unusual Julys of the 2020s. EWR…0.0 LGA….-0.5 JFK….+0.6 NYC….-1.1 ISP…….-0.6 BDR….-0.9 HPN…..-0.2 Avg….-0.4 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 through 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 4 103.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2021-06-30 through 2021-06-30 - 103.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 103.0 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-07 - 103.0 1954-07-31 through 1954-07-31 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 - 103.0 1911-07-03 through 1911-07-03 - 103.0 1901-07-02 through 1901-07-02 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 101.0 2017-06-13 through 2017-06-13 - 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 101.0 1999-07-06 through 1999-07-06 - 101.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1952-06-26 through 1952-06-26 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01

This summer so far really hasn’t been that rainy compared to the past. Only a few areas in the interior have had 10” this month. Notice how far down in the rankings we are for wet summers at the major stations like NYC and ISP which missed the heaviest rains this month. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jun through Aug Wettest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 25.23 0 2 2021 24.03 0 3 1975 22.40 0 4 1989 22.36 0 5 2009 21.38 0 6 2006 20.79 0 7 2007 20.62 0 8 1928 20.50 0 9 1903 20.43 0 10 1927 20.01 0 11 2003 19.87 0 12 1942 19.82 0 13 2018 19.15 0 14 1971 18.88 0 15 1889 18.55 0 16 1990 18.37 0 17 1871 18.22 0 18 1919 18.16 0 19 1884 17.62 0 20 1967 17.57 0 21 1922 17.23 0 22 1937 17.22 0 23 1911 17.11 0 24 1872 17.05 0 25 1938 16.87 0 26 1887 16.64 0 27 1875 16.55 0 28 1902 16.37 0 29 1960 16.29 0 30 1897 16.28 0 31 2000 15.97 0 32 1991 15.86 0 33 2013 15.79 0 34 1972 15.76 0 35 1904 15.75 0 36 1878 15.67 0 37 1873 15.45 0 38 1926 15.37 0 39 1933 15.24 0 40 1901 15.19 0 41 1946 15.16 0 42 1920 15.13 0 43 2019 14.93 0 - 1880 14.93 0 44 1941 14.76 0 45 1879 14.68 0 46 1896 14.66 0 47 1984 14.17 0 48 1915 14.12 0 49 1955 13.89 0 50 1930 13.85 0 51 1909 13.69 0 52 2004 13.68 0 53 1890 13.53 0 54 2023 13.52 0 - 1973 13.52 0 55 1997 13.50 0 56 1983 13.48 0 57 1994 13.40 0 58 2020 13.37 0 59 1996 13.34 0 60 2008 13.12 0 61 1969 13.06 0 62 1948 13.02 0 63 1987 12.95 0 64 2024 12.93 0 - 1959 12.93 0 65 1982 12.92 0 66 1992 12.75 0 67 1893 12.44 0 68 2017 12.29 0 69 2014 12.10 0 70 1945 11.92 0 71 1888 11.79 0 72 1978 11.67 0 73 1986 11.66 0 - 1968 11.66 0 74 1905 11.63 0 75 1988 11.62 0 76 2016 11.59 0 - 1952 11.59 0 77 1985 11.40 0 - 1918 11.40 0 78 1950 11.39 0 79 1877 11.30 0 80 1895 11.17 0 81 2015 11.12 0 82 1962 11.11 0 83 1925 11.09 0 84 1908 11.08 0 85 1961 10.91 0 86 2005 10.73 0 87 1976 10.72 0 88 1934 10.69 0 89 1935 10.64 0 90 1974 10.61 0 91 1885 10.58 0 92 1936 10.50 0 93 2002 10.44 0 - 1940 10.44 0 94 1913 10.42 0 95 1917 10.40 0 96 1931 10.39 0 97 1874 10.27 0 98 1980 10.26 0 99 1892 10.15 0 100 1899 10.14 0 101 2012 10.09 0 102 1914 10.07 0 103 1977 10.00 0 104 1900 9.93 0 - 1891 9.93 0 105 2001 9.89 0 106 1998 9.81 0 107 1916 9.65 0 - 1870 9.65 0 108 1939 9.62 0 109 1981 9.51 0 - 1924 9.51 0 110 1921 9.38 0 111 1869 9.36 0 112 1943 9.35 0 113 2022 9.18 0 114 1951 9.17 0 115 1898 9.13 0 116 1932 8.98 0 117 2010 8.94 0 118 2025 8.70 0 119 1956 8.68 0 120 1993 8.60 0 121 1958 8.59 0 - 1876 8.59 0 122 1947 8.56 0 123 1949 8.52 0 124 1995 8.40 0 125 1954 8.37 0 126 1883 8.35 0 127 2026 8.28 31 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug Wettest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1990 22.31 0 2 1989 20.44 0 3 2014 18.82 0 4 2012 18.54 0 5 1992 17.71 0 6 2011 17.02 0 7 2003 16.60 0 8 2006 16.51 0 9 1967 15.64 0 10 2009 14.91 0 11 2000 14.49 0 12 1998 14.26 0 13 2023 14.18 0 14 1982 14.14 0 15 1984 13.97 0 16 1976 13.87 0 17 1969 13.76 0 18 1985 13.57 0 19 2021 13.35 0 20 1996 13.24 0 21 2013 13.21 0 22 2018 12.94 0 23 1991 12.71 0 24 1975 12.54 0 25 2007 12.33 0 26 2024 11.49 0 27 1977 10.85 0 28 1983 10.83 0 29 1979 10.66 0 30 2019 10.64 0 - 2001 10.64 0 31 1997 10.39 0 32 2008 10.04 0 33 2020 9.96 0 34 1973 9.94 0 35 2002 9.93 0 36 1986 9.82 0 37 2017 9.41 0 38 1978 9.33 1 39 1972 9.25 0 40 1971 9.06 0 41 1987 8.89 0 42 1970 8.72 0 43 2004 8.71 0 44 1981 8.67 0 45 1994 8.53 0 46 1968 8.49 0 47 2026 8.43 31

That will be the test going forward. We will have to see how things evolve in the coming months. Since the seasonal models missed this summer pattern. So the seasonal models may even have lower skill than they traditionally have had beyond the one month forecast period. This summer is featuring a weaker Aleutian low than usual for a developing super El Niño and a much stronger mid-latitude ridge across the Pacific and the CONUS. So if this continues into the winter , then it could mean the traditional super El Niño ridge gets displaced further south and perhaps east into the CONUS than usual. Since a -PDO atmospheric state even overlapping at 10%-20% relative to the winter super El Niño forcing could lead to shifts. This would have implications on the warmth and possibly where the heaviest precipitation zones set up. The mid-latitude ridges being stronger than the troughs has been the main feature of our winters and other seasons since the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

2026 is near the warmest July on record in my first post using 1991-2020 climate normals at +2.5 since that is the base period Brian used. The departure would be even higher if an older base period was used. My 2nd post uses 1971-2000 climo and even that cooler one shows that 1987 wasn’t a warm summer for the CONUs even during the 1980s. Notice the warmest summer of that decade was 1988 which came in the summer after the El Niño and not before. So this El Niño is getting off to a much warmer start than usual. It’s El Ninoish since it matches most of the pattern for an El Niño summer from the Pacific across to the Atlantic. Every spot isn’t going to be a 100% match. But most of the area from the Pacific to the Atlantic is a reasonable 500 mb match whatever the base period is used for an El Niño summer. A hallmark of a developing very strong El Niño pattern during the summer is higher 500mb heights further north and lower heights underneath from the Pacific to the Atlantic. This summer the pattern is reversed which lead to all the record warmth across the CONUS. The record ridge north of Hawaii this month is the reason that the PDO had the steep drop in July. This is not the 500 mb pattern that we have typically had during any El Niños which were on their way to super status. So this event is in a league of its own in numerous ways.

Deflect from what? 1987 had a summer pattern that was a reasonable match for El Nino expectations.This summer is completely different.

It wasn’t even a hot summer for the cooler 1980s era. The warmest 1980s summer was 1988 and the 2nd warmest 1980. This current July is close to the warmest July on record. So there really isn’t a comparison to the summer of 1987.

That was still a cooler summer by recent standards. June-August 1987 71.77°F -0.54°F

One of the better recent seasons so far for sea ice retention on the Pacific side of the Arctic. So the weaker dipole pattern since 2013 with lower pressure north of Alaska continues. This major circulation reversal since 2007-2012 is the main reason that the September 2012 low extent hasn’t been surpassed for 14 years now. Rick Thoman @alaskawx.bsky.social Follow Sea ice in the Chukchi Sea remains well above the 1991-2020 and amazingly is the highest for the this point in the season since 1994 in NSIDC data. For the first time this year, there's an open water path to Utqiaġvik. Ice extent in the Beaufort Sea is the highest since 2006. #akwx #Arctic #SeaIce ALT 1:47 PM · Jul 26, 2026

The summer of 1991 only had a weak El Niño in progress as opposed the strongest on record this summer. July did have some similarity to the composite. But sometimes weaker El Niño summers in the past had more heat than the stronger developing ones. This was the case in 2002 also. So it has been common in the past for weaker El Niños to have less influence in the midlatitudes than during developing super El Niños like 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972 which had the more typical cooler summers. The big story this summer is how out of phase the mid-latitudes and tropics are for the magnitude of this event.