bluewave

Things worked out really well here. They set off all the fireworks just before the heavy thunderstorms arrived. Picked up my heaviest downpour of the summer so far with 0.56 in a short time and wind gusts to 45mph. A great show plus some much needed rainfall.

More severe wind gust potential with the storms later as the nadocast did very well yesterday. data.nadocast.com/viewer.html Forecast for yesterday with the verification Forecast for later today into tonight

June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

This is actually the heaviest rainfall signal that we have seen from the models in quite some time.

Great video of the severe storms moving in yesterday from a boat in New York Harbor.

This time stations like Newark and Harrison had to reach 105°-106° for NYC to finally reach 100°. LGA also made it to 104°. This suggests that NYC would have probably been at least 104° if the ASOS hadn’t become overgrown by the trees since the 1990s. This matches the past times our area experienced 103°+ heat before the tree growth near the castle became an issue. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100

We have been experiencing record heat here in the East at times going back to March related to the record breaking subtropical tropical ridges from 30N to 45N. Most times very strong to super El Niños feature more troughs and low pressure at these latitudes during this time of year. The ridges are usually further north on the continent in Canada. This has lead to the mid-latitude Atlantic SSTs joining the very warm mid-latitude Pacific SSTs. This is probably related to the ongoing expansion of the subtropical ridges over the years. Plus we have very extensive drought in the CONUS at this time. Also when forcing shifts back to the IO and MC we tend to see the peak warmth and ridging in the East. The reason the -PDO and +AMO pattern has been so persistent in recent years is due to these strong ridges leading to lighter winds and more sunshine warming the ocean surface below.

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 104.0 1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 2 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 104.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 103.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 103.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 - 103.0 1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03 5 102.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

The 105° at Newark was the 2nd warmest temperature on record at the station. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 through 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 4 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2021-06-30 through 2021-06-30 - 103.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 103.0 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-07 - 103.0 1954-07-31 through 1954-07-31 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 - 103.0 1911-07-03 through 1911-07-03 - 103.0 1901-07-02 through 1901-07-02

Yeah, we have only really had 6 years reaching 103°+ by July 4th. So the sample size is pretty small. But at least none of the previous years made it above 102° the rest of the summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures June 1st through July 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1966-07-04 105 0 - 1949-07-04 105 0 2025-07-04 103 0 - 2021-07-04 103 0 - 1911-07-04 103 0 - 1901-07-04 103 0 Maximum temperature after July 4th 1966….100° 1949….102° 2025…101° 2021….99° 1911…..102° 1901…..95°

One of the few times that a forecast for stalled out backdoor cold front with a wave of low pressure by next Monday is a welcome sight.

I was walking along the shore one day back in Long Beach and one of them flew very low right over the beach at Pacific BLVD. They come up on your position silently and you only hear the engine roar once they are past. It was a pretty wild experience even compared to all the beach parties back in those days.

Busy day at the shore with the lifeguards having to temporarily close the ocean to swimming where the sharks are making appearances.

105° now at Corona still north of the seabreeze.

The South Shore beaches in the upper 70s are the place to be on days like these. FW3143 West Gilgo Observation Time: 07/02/26 @ 14:05 EDT 18:05 UTC Elevation: 6 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 78 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 80 % Wind: SE at 10 MPH Peak Gust: 15 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 78 °F Min Temperature: 69 °F Max RH: 91 % Min RH: 80 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 66 °F Max Gust: 29 MPH

The CONUS finally surpassed March 2012 in 2026. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2026

New Brunswick 103°. ▼ New Brunswick NJ 2026-07-02 13:50 Mesonet 103 70

Corona at 104° and Glendale/Maspeth 103°.

It does happen occasionally and probably will again one of these years. But it’s a very low probability of success forecast any given year since 1993-1994. Only 4 seasons fell in this range from 1993-1994 to 2025-2026 vs 18 seasons from 1960-1961 to 1992-1993. NYC used to be clustered much closer to the middle 19-30 range in the previous 33 year period. So it was a good bet that you would be correct more often than in recent years calling for seasonal snowfall closer to the mid range or average of the distribution. These days most years are skewed toward the extreme ends of well above or well below average snowfall. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 19-30”seasons bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 0.0 T 7.2 13.9 22.3 T 0.0 43.4 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2 1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7

As long as you don’t forecast an average snowfall season around NYC Metro you should do OK.

Our seasonal snowfall since 1993-1994 around NYC Metro has shifted to all or nothing. Meaning nearly all the seasons have been well above or well below average. Very few fall in the middle anymore like they used to prior to the last 30 years. So our decadal average snowfall has been determined which category in the all or nothing game wins out. Long term since the 1800s snowfall has been declining as winters and springs get warmer.

Lefferts/South Ozone Park now at 100.

December 2000 was cold and snowy in NYC. The real outlier years for lack of snow and warmth were 2001 and 2006. The December 11 year snowfall average from 2000-2010 was 8.9” in NYC which was the best since the 1940s. December 1989 was a whole different story for extreme cold. It was more like a typical LIA winter than anything we have ever seen in modern times. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917 25.0 0 - 1876 25.0 0 2 1989 25.9 0 3 1880 26.4 0 4 1872 26.7 0 5 1926 28.9 0 6 1871 29.0 0 7 1958 29.3 0 8 1955 29.7 0 - 1910 29.7 0 - 1886 29.7 0 9 1976 29.9 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1989 7.5 0 2 1917 12.2 0 3 1963 12.9 0 4 1958 13.0 0 5 1970 14.3 0 6 1980 15.0 0 7 1910 15.9 0 8 1904 16.0 0 9 1933 16.2 0 10 1976 16.3 0

They just set the new all-time warmest 10am temperature at the station before the sea breeze arrives. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=all&sday=0702&eday=1231&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Newark is currently 3° cooler at 10am. SXUS51 KOKX 021357 OSOOKX New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2026 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park SUNNY 91 71 51 W6 30.02S HX 97 LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 90 69 50 NW10 29.98R HX 94 Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 96 69 41 NW10 29.99R HX 102 Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 95 69 42 W9 29.99S HX 100 Teterboro Arpt SUNNY 93 71 48 VRB6 29.98S HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 90 70 51 NW7 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 91 68 46 N10 N/A HX 95 Breezy Point N/A 82 N/A N/A W7 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 91 68 46 N8 N/A HX 95 Staten Island N/A 93 70 46 NW5 N/A HX 99