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coastalplainsnowman

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Everything posted by coastalplainsnowman

  1. coastalplainsnowman
    Super light precip in SE Nassau by Sunrise. Mostly liquid with occasional wandering fat flake. Little intrusion of ‘green’ depicted well on snow/rain radar. Just an obs - I know we just started.
  2. coastalplainsnowman
    I attribute it more to a combination of satisfaction and fatigue from last week's storm.. I know I feel it myself. 4-8, 3-6, heck 2-3 - if it was the first snow of the season, or if last week hadn't happened, it'd be busier here.
  3. coastalplainsnowman
    Looking at the Upton's forecast and the Probabilistic Winter Weather Forecasts page, its interesting to see that there's almost no difference between the expected forecast and the 90% chance (high end) forecast, whereas the 10% chance (low end) forecast has most locations at zero, and only Montauk and Westhampton seeing 2". I always figured, not knowing any better that the 10 and 90% forecasts would typically reflect some sort of bell curve distribution, and while they are not always like that, this one struck me as unusual. Would be really interested in what skew means. From a layman's standpoint I assume it means that lot of things need to fall into place for this to pan out, but then why wouldn't the expected forecast number be lower? Would appreciate any insight. Thanks.
  4. coastalplainsnowman
    I'm sure, but you're not supposed to say that out loud here On LI we always have that rain threat in the back of our minds, keeping us from truly enjoying the runup to the big events until they are halfway done. Even on this latest storm you can see how it is gonna do its darndest to get that four letter word into the picture.
  5. coastalplainsnowman
    Anyone else find it interesting that despite the phenomenal seasonal snowfall totals we've had around here, even including 1995/1996, that we haven't cracked this list? Maybe because a lot of our recent great seasons have occurred without exceptional cold, and it's harder to thread the needle twice in a week in such conditions? Edit: I'll get back in my lane now lol
  6. coastalplainsnowman
    Hi Don, all, I have only my memory to go by , but I believe that February 8 and February 11 1994 (a Tuesday / Friday) had back to back 8"+ snowfall, at least for Nassau. This is my best recollection of significant back to back snowstorms going back to at least the mid 80s. It might not meet the 10" followed by 6", but if it's not, it probably just missed.
  7. coastalplainsnowman
    I just read that people are in an uproar because yesterday's 'livestreamed' viewing of the Staten Island groundhog, Chuck, was actually pre-recorded, apparently on an earlier day, since keen observers noted that there was no snow on the ground. Well now that's just ridiculous and unscientific! Remember that this is the same public that gets upset when a snow forecast is off by a few inches.
  8. coastalplainsnowman

    Hi thanks for the response.  Your point re thunderstorms is exactly right.  Naturally there's more interest in snow given the usually longer term impact when it falls, but that doesn't make it any easier to pinpoint.  Anyhow, looking forward to the next potential this coming weekend.   Thanks again.

     

  9. coastalplainsnowman
    Stating the obvious, but looking at a map like the above makes it so clear what the models and the mets have cut out for them trying to forecast a storm like this, when you see how that 4-6 runs up the coast in NJ, meanwhile 30 miles to the NE across the Atlantic, the south shore of Nassau is at 12+. To be able to predict anything close to that as has been done, is impressive. Then look at how that r/s line lined up beneath LI in Nassau, nudging north onto land in Suffolk as you go east. That thing's been predicted by many here for three or four days. Even going back to wdrag creating the original thread a week ago! I know you guys set the bar high for yourselves, but that's pretty cool. We take for granted like it's common knowledge that this storm would form off the coast as it did, where it did, when it did, right on schedule. You all have a thankless job. Ok, that's all. As always, always a blast following these storms here.
  10. coastalplainsnowman
    It's funny how most of us think on here. When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand. The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."
  11. coastalplainsnowman
    For the long islanders, I know there a lot of folks here who like Joe Cioffi, myself included. I think he was posting here at one point (maybe is still posting here?) He's got LI at "at least 6-12" to the west, "at least 4-6" east. https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/winter-storm-watch-long-island-sunday-night-into-tuesday-at-least-6-to-12-inches-forecast/
  12. coastalplainsnowman
    layman's question - is there any sort of measurement which depicts the variance among the members, in which a smaller number would indicate better agreement?
  13. coastalplainsnowman
    Agreed. Since the 2000s there have many times where LI was forecast to jackpot, and somehow the jackpot turned out to be north central/even north east jersey over into NY. LI did great too in these scenarios too (especially to folks with the 80s as a frame of reference), but still. Only exception I'd add is that magical north central suffolk area that has often rivaled those spots.
  14. coastalplainsnowman
    pun intended?
  15. coastalplainsnowman
    Years ago on a predecessor weather forum I put up a poll geared toward my fellow Long Islanders, asking which would they rather prefer: Option 1: Be in the jackpot of a Mid Atlantic / New England storm where LI gets 10" (the max amount for the given storm) and Boston gets 5. Option 2: Get 15" of snow in a Mid Atlantic / New England storm, but Boston gets 2 feet. Credit to their honesty, most chose option 1.
  16. coastalplainsnowman
    Yup. At least from 1979-1993 there wasn't the temptation to stay glued to the situation 24x7 (other than TWC, which even as a kid you knew that once you watched for 20 minutes straight there would be nothing new to hear for a few hours, so might as well go play outside.) As a kid/teen if I had the 24x7 access we have now I might not have graduated elementary, junior high, or high school on time, or held down a job during the winter months lol. Imagine working in a shopping mall and heading down to the TV department in the department store to catch the weatherman at 7:45PM sharp to see if there were any updates. In hindsight, I think that might have been a problem. 1970-1999 Long Island had about six (six!) total storms of a foot or more. The 2000-2016 was the reward for those of us who suffered before that.
  17. coastalplainsnowman
    Great question! I wonder the same all the time. If that was today, would it be the situation we often see now where the snowfall maps and forecasts on TV don't reflect the latest models, and everyone on boards like this knows it is game over before everyone else? Likewise, I do remember the morning of the Blizzard of '83 the grownups in the morning including my schoolteacher saying 2-5" and we almost had that by dismissal..
  18. coastalplainsnowman
    I remember Joe Cioffi (who I admire and enjoyed very much during his time on News 12) betting the anchors in December 1989 that we would see over 20" of snow in the remainder of that winter, which as we know, much to the surprise of all of us who followed it, never materialized. In hindsight, that is a testament to how lousy the winters of the 80s were snow-wise. a) that a bet of 20" of additional snow in the winter was noteworthy and b) that we didn't reach it. . I recall that after that brutal December 1989 that winter essentially ended at that point. In fact I think it essentially ended for years until we started to get some teases in 1993 before the March 1993 superstorm, which preceded the Blizzard of 96, which proceeded our largely awesome 18 year run that followed.
  19. coastalplainsnowman
    The problem is that once we get into March I think all but the biggest snow fans are ready to move on. The earlier in the season the snow, the better. Our Dec 17th one this season for example - I'll trade 5 straight seasons of a 6" spring snowstorm for one of those (even if it was barely 6" for me) The March / April (I guess now we have to say May too?) snow is a mess and melting as soon as the sun peaks out at the end.
  20. coastalplainsnowman
    I'm real late to the party here, but I remember tracking this storm, begging the r/s line to stay away, and taking screenshots of the radar from the accuweather site. I took about 20 of these. Here's how dang close it got to me in SE Nassau:
  21. coastalplainsnowman
    Be careful putting stuff like this in writing until 2020 is in the rearview window please..
  22. coastalplainsnowman
    I found the above info here, just kind of stumbled across it https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/planets/great-conjunction. There may be more info there.. The whole topic is making me want to pickup astronomy/telescope hobby..
  23. coastalplainsnowman
    Personally, I'm looking forward to the 'great conjunction', when Jupiter will pass directly in front of Saturn. That will occur next on February 16, 7541 (seriously.) I'm hoping that if I diet and exercise I can be around to see it happen. By the way, if you're busy that day or if it is cloudy (does Accuweather's long range go out this far?), it happens again later that year on June 17th, 7541.
  24. coastalplainsnowman
    I see that this @#$% storm hitting on Christmas eve is going to bring with it temps in the #@$#% upper 50s/low 60s. What a surprise. This will be only the 10th straight year that the NYC area will hit least the upper 50s in the week before Christmas. Heck, in most of this timeframe the high for the week was in the 60s, even 70s in at least one of the years.
  25. coastalplainsnowman
    From what I've been reading here, that was the magic number needed to get to the 30" average for 1991-2020, correct? If someone told me in Dec 2000, we'll have the 30 year average up to 30" by 2020, I wouldn't have taken that bet.
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