donsutherland1

The CANSIPS (cool) and CFSv2 (warm) are at odds regarding the fall outcome in the central U.S. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal forecast shows when it comes out in a few days.

A break in the heat is now underway. This morning featured refreshingly cool temperatures. Central Park saw a low of 63°, which was its coolest low temperature since June 28 when the low was also 63°. Low temperatures included: Bridgeport: 62° Danbury: 61° Farmingdale: 63° Islip: 65° New Haven: 63° New York City-Central Park: 63° New York City-JFK Airport: 65° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 64° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Poughkeepsie: 59° White Plains: 61° Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. It could briefly turn warmer around the middle of next week. There remain hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +3.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.359 today.

Yesterday, Bridgeport recorded 0.20" of rain, while Islip measured 2.93". This marks the lowest rainfall on record at Bridgeport on a day when Islip received 2.50" or more. The previous record was set on August 19, 1990, when Islip recorded 3.83" and Bridgeport received 0.39".

July 2025 ranked among the 10 hottest Julys on record in the greater New York City area: Monthly Mean Temperatures: Bridgeport: 78.2° (5th hottest) Islip: 78.5° (2nd hottest) New York City-Central Park: 79.5° (tied 14th hottest) New York City-JFK Airport: 79.9° (2nd hottest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.0° (8th hottest) Newark: 82.1° (5th hottest) Notes: The 0.4° difference between JFK Airport and Central Park when JFK Airport had a higher mean temperature in July was the largest such difference on record. Adjusting for the trees would have led to a mean temperature near 80.0° in Central Park. That would have tied for 8th hottest.

Select Rainfall Reports: Browns Mills, NJ: 6.00" 2 WNW Manchester TWP, NJ: 4.78" Boothwyn, PA: 4.05"

Yes. There were hourly amounts of 5.34” and 4.37”. They occurred in back-to-back hourly periods.

Atlantic City picked up 2.29" (58.2 mm) of rain in the past hour. Today's rainfall has reached 3.03" (77.0 mm). That demolishes the daily record for July 31 of 0.85" (21.6 mm) from 2009.

Yes. August 13, 2014. Islip had 13.51" of rain. Bridgeport had 1.66", Central Park had 0.53", JFK Airport had 2.92"; LaGuardia Airport had 0.78", and Newark had 0.34".

Only once at Central Park: July 1993 with 20 days. JFK’s record is 13 days from July 2010.

As an example of how convective rainfall can drench areas while others see little rainfall, July 28, 2012 saw 2.98” fall at Islip and just 0.07” at JFK Airport.

Islip has seen 1" or more of rain for the second consecutive hour. The daily rainfall has reached 2.69", which breaks the record of 2.20" from 1996. Flash flooding is very likely occurring in parts of Suffolk County.

Temperatures rose above modeled levels today on account of lower-than-expected cloud cover ahead of a slowly advancing front. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 87° Islip: 89° New York City-Central Park: 89° New York City-JFK Airport: 91° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 87° Newark: 91° Philadelphia (93°) reached 90° or above for a record-tying 21st day this month. A break in the heat is now imminent. A front will cross the region this evening triggering additional scattered showers and thundershowers. Some of the rain could be heavy. Behind the front, it will turn cooler for an extended period of time. Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. There are hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +10.59 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.240 today.

Be careful. Hopefully, the worst will avoid you.

In the past hour, Reading picked up 2.47" (62.7 mm) of rain. That sets a new July hourly mark and is the third highest hourly figure on record. Reading's daily total of 2.67" (67.8 mm) breaks the July 31 daily mark of 2.56" (65.0 mm) set way back in 1887.

Unfortunately, I have no PNS data.

Flood watches were posted starting in the afternoon.

It's there right now, but the question is whether it will hold, as the lowest temperature will occur near 1 am EDT.

#Philadelphia has reached 90° for the 21st time this month. That ties the July record for most such days. The record was set in 1952 and 1988, 1995, 2011, 2012, and 2020.

JFK Airport is on track to be warmer than Central Park in July by its largest margin on record. The existing record is 0.3° in 1969 (JFK: 75.0°, Central Park: 74.7°).

Ben is an invaluable source of weather information. Even when he was working in New Zealand, he often posted informative weather information (frequently focused on the Hudson Valley).

For reference: Central Park's daily rainfall record for July 31 is 2.29", which was set way back in 1889. Central Park has seen 0.50" or above hourly amounts five times on July 31: 0.88", 1925 and 1942 0.81", 2016 0.74", 1961 0.56", 1996 It remains to be seen whether Central Park will see 1.00" or more hourly rainfall today for the first time on July 31. July 28-30 and August 1-4 have all seen 1.00" or more hourly rainfall.

Here's a gift link so that anyone can read the article: https://wapo.st/4mdOi2m

From the 7/31 0z HREF:

White Plains has reached 80° or above for the 30th day this month. That ties the July mark of 30 days, which was set in 2022.

Philadelphia has reached 80° or above for the 31st day this month. That ties the July mark of 31 days. It is also the third consecutive year with 31 such days. The old record of two consecutive years was set during 2010-2011.