donsutherland1

193 NOUS41 KOKX 181831 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-190631- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 131 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 2.0 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs 2 ENE New Canaan 1.7 in 1132 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 3 WSW Shelton 1.4 in 1118 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 4 NNW New Fairfield 1.2 in 1051 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter ...New Haven County... 1 ENE North Haven 1.5 in 1123 AM 01/18 Public ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... 2 NNE Franklin Lakes 2.0 in 0112 PM 01/18 Trained Spotter 1 N River Vale 1.6 in 1135 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Rutherford 1.5 in 1035 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 1 SSW River Edge 1.0 in 1145 AM 01/18 Public ...Hudson County... Harrison 0.6 in 1234 PM 01/18 CO-OP Observer ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.1 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Elizabeth 0.8 in 1034 AM 01/18 Public ...New York... ...Nassau County... 1 N Syosset 1.6 in 1040 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 0.4 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... Monroe 2.0 in 1215 PM 01/18 Trained Spotter 4 SW Pine Bush 1.5 in 1045 AM 01/18 Public ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 0.5 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Kennedy Airport 0.3 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs ...Suffolk County... Upton (NWS Office) 0.6 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs 1 WNW Jamesport 0.4 in 0100 PM 01/18 Public Orient 0.3 in 1040 AM 01/18 Fire Dept/Rescue Islip Airport 0.2 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs ...Westchester County... 2 ENE Peekskill 1.5 in 0115 PM 01/18 Trained Spotter ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Suffolk County... Upton (NWS Office) T in 0650 AM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Farmingdale Airport T in 0617 AM 01/18 ASOS

The precipitation started as light rain but went over to snow in Central Park with the temperature dropping to freezing. There very likely was an accumulation and that will be reported early this afternoon.

Four photos from this morning:

I think the cold is real and we'll see readings well in the single digits. The figure is around 35%, but the warmer GEFS + timeframe uncertainty likely drive the lower probability.

Overnight, there was a modest uptick in QPF. The general figure for NYC ranges from about 0.35"-0.45". The 12z NBM shows 0.38" with 0.27" from the coastal storm. Warm air advection snows are currently occurring. In parts of the region, readings are just warm enough for some light rain or mixed precipitation. Should precipitation rates increase, the temperature could drop toward 33° in NYC based on current wet bulb and dew point readings and the light rain there could flip to light snow. As the coastal storm approaches offshore, colder air will be pressing into the region. There will likely be several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow especially from New York City north and east. New York City will likely wind up with 2"-4" of snow. The NBM currently shows 3.0" for New York City. The colder areas to the north across interior southeastern New York State into Connecticut will likely see an area of 3"-6" snows.

There seems to be a pretty good signal for the 25th. Even the NBE shows > 0.75" QPF at that range.

Different posters.

I'm certainly enjoying the snow and looking forward to the cold. It seems that the AI versions have a lot of merit even as they are still "learning." I've been impressed how far they've come in the past year.

Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it.

I don't believe 2016-17 is a good analog. I only referenced it, because it had probably the strongest WWB during any La Niña in recent decades. Personally, I didn't think the 2026 WWB would measure up to that event. So far, it has fallen far short.

The HRRR has gotten the 0z cycle off to a promising start with a deeper, closer, snowier solution across NJ and eastern PA.

Following today's snowfall, somewhat cooler air will move in tonight, setting the stage for another winter event tomorrow. A coastal storm will develop off the Southeast coast and then track toward but perhaps just south and east of the 40N-70W benchmark. In a change from recent days, the latest guidance brings the storm closer to the coast than had previously been shown. As a result, New York City and nearby areas will likely see 1"-3" of snow tomorrow into tomorrow night with some locally higher amounts around 4". There is a risk of mixed precipitation or rain for at least part of the event on Long Island, the Jersey shore, and perhaps into New York City and nearb areas. There remains a degree of uncertainty concerning the storm's track and rate of development. Highs will be mainly in the lower and middle 30s in New York City on tomorrow and Monday. The temperature will fall toward or near freezing during tomorrow's snowfall. Arctic air will move into the region on Monday night. Tuesday could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. Temperatures will remain below normal through at least most of next week. After January 20th, conditions could become more favorable for snowfall, as a generally cold pattern continues. The probability of a PNA+ regime has continued to increase. PNA-related developments would have large implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +27.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.554 today. The PNA was +1.067, which is the highest since November 2, 2025 when the PNA was +1.071. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.6° (-1.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be at the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Preliminary snowfall amounts: Central Park: 1.0” JFK Airport: 0.6” LaGuardia Airport: 1.4” Newark: 2.0”

QPF amounts in New York City were in line with the guidance with 0.17" being recorded. Both the NBM and ECMWF fared best. However, 0.16" fell over a 2-hour period rather than the 3-4 hour spread that had been shown on the guidance. On account of the heavier rates, temperatures dropped to the wet bulb temperature (32°) during the height of the precipitation rather than the above freezing figures that had been shown on the guidance.

Three photos from Armonk, NY:

It will probably be closer to 7-8:1, which is much better than what would have been the case had the precipitation been lighter. Outside the City, things are on course and some areas could see ratios near 10:1.

Today is a nice overperformer. NYC saw 0.09" precipitation in the past hour and that sent the temperature all the way down to the wet bulb figure of 32°.

Armonk, NY:

Snowing lightly in Scarsdale.

Graupel in Larchmont with a dusting.

The models began shifting at the 0z cycle and continued through 6z.

The 1/17 0z NBM forecast a 12z temperature of 34° for Central Park. The actual figure was 37°. With temperatures likely to run between 36°-38° when the main batch of precipitation arrives vs. the previously modeled 33°-35°, little or no snow accumulation is likely in and around New York City. The City's northern and western suburbs are in line for a coating to an inch of snow with the distant northern and western suburbs likely to see 1"-2" with some locally higher amounts. Much of the overnight guidance has shifted toward a solution of a closer coastal low. As a result, a period of accumulating snow with 1"-2" possible in and around New York City. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England appear to likely to see 2"-4" with perhaps some higher amounts. There remains some uncertainty concerning the developing storm's track and rate of development. Arctic air will begin to overspread the region on Monday and Monday night.

They should do better this time.

With the temperature now up to 36 in Central Park, only a trace of snow is the most likely outcome today. A coating is a lower probability.

I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s temporary.