donsutherland1

Tomorrow will be very warm with highs reaching the upper 80s to perhaps 90° in New York City and the lower and middle 90s in Newark. Wednesday through Friday will be turn cooler with increased clouds. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 70s to near 80° through Friday. Each day could feature the risk of some heavy thunderstorms. The rainfall amount could be enhanced somewhat by some of the moisture from Chantals remnants. No widespread excessive heat appears likely through mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -4.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.160 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 78.5° (1.0° above normal).

87 degrees at Longwood Gardens.

I agree. It is disappointing that the situation at Central Park has been neglected. The data no longer reliably reflects summer conditions in Manhattan. No matter how the data is examined, one sees an unmistakable impact during the summer or full foliage months.

Another look at Central Park's summer temperature issue: During 1970-1995, there were 5.4 days per summer when Central Park's high temperature was 1° or more cooler than the cooler high at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport. During 1996-2024, that figure was 22.8 days. Since 2000, that figure has averaged 24.0 days. The change in those averages are even more dramatic for days when Central Park had a high temperature that was at least 2° cooler than the cooler high at JFK Airport or LaGuardia Airport: 1970-1995: 1.3 days per summer 1996-2024: 11.1 days per summer 2000-2024: 12.2 days per summer Not all of this change has to do with the trees, but most of it does. One has seen smaller changes in the same direction for January 1-March 31 (no foliage) and October 1-December 31 (low foliage). However, the summer (full foliage) change is biggest. Change in Days with Highs 1° or More Cooler than the Cooler High at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport: 1996-2024 vs. 1970-1995: January-March: +93%; June-August: +322%; October-December: +122% Change in Days with Highs 2° or More Cooler than the Cooler High at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport: 1996-2024 vs. 1970-1995: January-March: +59%; June-August: +754%; October-December: +135%

Tomorrow will be warm with highs reaching the middle 80s across the New York City area. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +3.57 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.175 today.

2 consecutive days in 1948, not 3.

Yes. There was also August 26-28, 1948.

Yes. That's correct. I misspoke. I had checked whether 1917 was the longest streak and didn't check all the dates all of them occurred.

Yes. Those are the records for each location. The 1917 stretch is the only 4-day streak on record for Central Park.

Today was another very warm day. High temperatures included: Bridgeport: 90° Islip: 90° New York City-Central Park: 88° New York City-JFK Airport: 89° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 92° Newark: 94° Today was the third day this year that Bridgeport and Islip hit 90° or above while Central Park did not. That breaks the record of two such days that was set in 2006. Parts of the region will experience a strong thunderstorm this evening. Afterward, generally warm weather will prevail through Saturday with readings mainly in the middle 80s. It will turn hotter on Sunday and the heat could persist through Tuesday. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to around 90° in New York City. New Jersey's hot spots will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 90s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +13.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.923 today.

JFK: 3; LGA and NYC: 4; EWR: 6.

Setting aside extreme maximum temperatures in the area most affected by the Dust Bowl, on a nationwide basis, such summers have already been matched or exceeded. Only 136 retains the top spot (in a tie).

At best, there is a hint of an uncertain weak cyclical effect. However, changes in aerosols may well have driven most of the cooling seen in the 1960s. In any case, strong and persistent warming from UHI + anthropogenic climate change have overwhelmed any periodicity that might exist in Phoenix. The warmest summer during the 1930s was 1933 with a mean of 91.7° and the warmest year during the 1930s was 1934 with a mean of 74.2°. Every summer and every year since 2000 has exceeded those figures. The last cooler summer was 1999 and the last cooler year was 1998.

I'm not sure where he gets some of his data from. Yes, the USCRN data debunks his claims.

As of 2 pm, Islip (6 days) and JFK Airport (8 days) have had more 90° or above highs than Central Park (4 days). The only time that occurred during an entire year was 2006 (Islip: 10 days; JFK Airport: 12 days; Central Park: 8 days).

That’s true. With summers continuing to warm, there has been a sudden explosion of truly extreme summers. It’s too soon to draw too many conclusions about that, but in general extremes have increased in a non-linear fashion as the climate has warmed.

The climate models couple the ocean and atmosphere in forecasting circulation changes. To date, the trends in the Southwest (including part of California) and Northeast are consistent with what is expected from the circulation changes. The 1960s were snowier, because the cold was so much greater than it has been recently. There was greater opportunity for precipitation to fall in the form of snow than there is today. During winters 1960-61 through 1969-70, the mean winter temperature was 32.6°, four winters had mean temperatures at or below 32°, with the warmest winter having a mean temperature of 35.9°. During 2010-11 through 2024-25, the mean winter temperature was 37.1° (above the warmest winter of the 1960s), the coldest winter was 32.7° (above the mean figure for the 1960s), and four winters had mean temperatures of 40° or above. The rapid increase in warmth has more than offset the wetter climate. As a result, New York City's snowfall is likely in the early stages of a secular decline. By the mid-2030s, it will be clear whether snowfall has truly entered a long-term decline, even as there will still be snowier cycles and snowier winters. I suspect that the 30-season mean snowfall figure will reach or fall below 20.0" at Central Park by the mid-2030s.

For purposes of illustration, below is an example of why Shewchuk's arguments are deeply flawed. The illustration examines the change in Phoenix's mean summer minimum temperatures. Shewchuk's dismissal of adjusted data would mean that Phoenix's climate has seen summer minimum temperatures increase almost 1.5° per decade due to climate change (natural and anthropogenic). His claims would ignore the impact that the emergence and then rapid growth of Phoenix's Urban Heat Island Effect has had on summer minimum temperatures. In 1941, the beginning of the first 30-year period under consideration, Phoenix had a population of just over 65,000. In 2024, Phoenix's population was 1,682,515. During 1940-1980, Phoenix's population grew an average of 6.4% per year; since 1980, it has been growing at about 1.8% per year. The sharper rise in the raw data during the first part of the chart and flattening afterward provide a footprint of the growth in the UHI. If one were seeking to understand how fast Phoenix's climate has been warming, one would need to exclude artificial factors e.g., UHI. That's what the adjustments do. They remove the impacts of siting changes (location, features such as new buildings, etc.), UHI, time of observation bias, etc. The adjustments allow for comparability. They make robust scientific analysis possible.

There are cycles and there are also longer-term trends. For example, New York City is seeing increasing precipitation (as expected from climate change). Its cycles continue and a drier cycle will commence at some point, but the overall trend is for greater annual precipitation. In contrast, parts of California and the Desert Southwest are in an aridification trend. There will be wetter cycles, but the overall trend is reduced precipitation.

Yesterday, Phoenix saw its first measurable rainfall of Monsoon Season when 0.16” fell. It was the 35th biggest first measurable rainfall of Monsoon Season. Finally, drier Monsoon seasons are often correlated with more intense heat. Phoenix has been evolving toward drier monsoon seasons and hotter summers.

Generally warm weather will prevail through Saturday. New York City will see highs in the middle to perhaps upper 80s during this stretch. Parts of the region could experience some thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon or evening. After that, the next rainfall will likely occur during a frontal passage early next week. Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. There remains some potential for a shot of more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. The worst of the heat, should it develop, will likely occur away from the coastal plain. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer. The SOI was +7.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.176 today.

July Mean Temperatures and Precipitation at Central Park: In general, drier outcomes are correlated with hotter outcomes. However, 1991-2020 has become both warmer and wetter than the 1961-1990 base period.

Yes. It should have easily beaten the record (46 +/- 5 days using the pre-2000 summer regression equation).

Yes, all things being equal, a wetter climate can temper heatwave intensity and duration.

That's something the data can't really illustrate. But one would expect similar trends in the nearby locations as one is seeing at Central Park if synoptic developments were largely responsible. Instead, Central Park has been decoupling from the nearby locations when it comes to high temperatures. Indeed, absent the trees, Central Park would likely have had two 100° days so far, including a June record 102° high (pre-2000 regression equation).