donsutherland1

The potential peak heat is for Tuesday-Thursday (October 1-3), assuming the latest guidance is accurate.

Yesterday was also Utqiagvik's 94th day of the year above freezing (highlighted by the 85-consecutive day streak). That surpassed the previous mark of 93, which was set in 1998.

Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 95°; Boston: 92°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City: 89°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 92°; Richmond: 94°; Sterling: 94° (old record: 93°, 2005 and 2010); and, Washington, DC: 94°. Today was the 57th time Baltimore recorded a 90° or above high temperature. Only 2010, with 59, had more. Today was Washington, DC's 59th 90° or warmer day this year, which is tied with 5 prior years for 3rd most such days during a year. Only 1980 and 2010, both with 67 such days, had more. The excessive warmth in Boston provides yet another potential signal of at least one more significant bout of high temperatures for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1872, Boston has had 10 prior years during which the temperature reached 90° or above during the September 20-30 period. In 6/10 (60%) cases, October 1-15 had a maximum temperature of 80° or above and in 4/10 (40%) cases, October 1-15 had a maximum temperature of 85° or above. Courtesy of low sea ice, abnormal warmth continued to prevail in northern Alaska. There is an implied 93% probability that Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) will record its warmest September on record. It is possible that Utqiagvik could register its first 40° mean temperature for September. A 40.0° mean temperature would rank 30th out of 99 years for the warmest August on record). The existing monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Such a scenario is now more likely than not. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -4.45 today. On September 19, the SOI fell to -35.30. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.701. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. This is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°. On September 22, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.727 (RMM). The September 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.464. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 93% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 55%. Should September 2019 have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above, 2019 would be the 5th consecutive year with such September warmth. Prior to the current stretch, the record was 2 consecutive years (1930 and 1931; 1970 and 1971; 1979 and 1980; and, 2010 and 2011).

Congratulations. I wish you and your fiance all the best going forward.

Update... Bastardi has deleted the retweeted image concerning Greta Thunberg. Perhaps the many calling it out on Twitter and elsewhere on Social Media led to this outcome. A tweeted apology to Ms. Thunberg would have been nice, but at least the offensive image is gone.

Fortunately, after part of the first week of October, the air conditioner may get a well-deserved break.

The latest PNA forecast shows a dramatic drop that could take place over a very short period of time. Since daily PNA data have been available beginning in 1950, there have been 13 cases where the PNA dropped 3.000 sigma or more during a 5-day period in the September 20-October 10 timeframe. In the New York City region, such a development typically provided a signal that the remainder of meteorological autumn (October and November) would have similar temperature anomalies as September (9/13 or 69% of cases). When it comes to a warm September, as appears very likely this year, 6/8 (75%) cases were followed by a warm anomaly over the October-November period. Both cool cases had cool October anomalies. In short, the PNA appears to be offering a signal that the above normal temperature regime of September will likely predominate during the autumn.

Rising and increasingly vicious personal attacks on Greta Thunberg who has played a pivotal role in building a global youth movement aimed at persuading policy makers to address climate change are contemptible. They also offer fresh indications that science is advancing and those who seek to align public policy with science are making progress. The increasingly unhinged responses of the climate change denial crowd reveal that they are out of anything resembling climate, meteorological, or other scientific ammunition, as their discredited cause is anti-science at its core. That Ms. Thunberg is now being loosely associated with the Nazis via a conspiracy theory of her being placed in her position via the Left (even as Nazism was on the Far Right) is particularly reprehensible. Yet, it's happening. https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1175948680253362178 Whether this will prove the low water mark so to speak remains to be seen. After all, the climate change denier movement is frightened with its loss of ability to influence, terrified of a move away from the status quo, naked before science, and desperate for relevance. For now, it has moved into the dark shadows of conspiracy theories (almost certainly the environment in which the remnants of that movement will persist after society has moved on) and it seeks the personal destruction of those who stand for science. Historic experience is not on its side.

Today saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 80s across the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations reached or exceeded 90°. High temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 91°; Harrisburg: 91°; New York City: 86°; Newark: 89°; Philadelphia: 89°; Richmond: 92°; Sterling: 91°; and, Washington, DC: 93°. Parts of southern New England also saw readings well into the 80s, including Boston (89°), Hartford (88°), and Providence (85°). Today was the 56th time Baltimore recorded a 90° or above high temperature. Only 2010, with 59, had more. Today was Washington, DC's 58th 90° or warmer day this year, which tied 2016 for the 8th most such days during a year. Courtesy of low sea ice, abnormal warmth continued to prevail in northern Alaska. There is an implied 89% probability that Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) will record its warmest September on record. It is possible that Utqiagvik could register its first 40° mean temperature for September. A 40.0° mean temperature would rank 30th out of 99 years for the warmest August on record). The existing monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. Despite the guidance, the strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Such a scenario may be somewhat more likely than not. That outcome could have significant winter season implications. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, six years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 5/6 (83%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2002 had one such week ahead of what would evolve into an El Niño winter. The SOI was -11.94 today. On September 19, the SOI fell to -35.30. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.676. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°. On September 21, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.466 (RMM). The September 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.377. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 92% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 61%. Should September 2019 have a mean temperature of 70.0° or above, 2019 would be the 5th consecutive year with such September warmth. Prior to the current stretch, the record was 2 consecutive years (1930 and 1931; 1970 and 1971; 1979 and 1980; and, 2010 and 2011).

Climate change denier dishonesty increases as youth ratchet up pressure for governments to prioritize, tackle climate change... The Guardian reported: A hoax photo that claims to show rubbish left behind by Australian climate strike protesters is circulating on Facebook, despite being revealed as fake months ago. Though it lacks any verification, and was debunked in April, the image and false caption have been shared 19,000 times in 12 hours, and thousands of times from copycats. On Friday, an estimated 300,000 Australians, and millions of people around the world, took part in protests against inaction on the climate emergency. Hours later, an Australian pro-coal page reposted the photo, which originated in April. It was captioned: "Look at the mess today’s climate protesters left behind in beautiful Hyde Park." However, the photo is not from a climate strike, not from Friday and was not taken in Australia. It is from a marijuana-based festival called 420 held in London in April 2019. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/21/climate-strikes-hoax-photo-accusing-australian-protesters-of-leaving-rubbish-behind-goes-viral Of course, one should not be surprised by this outcome. The scientific evidence for ongoing warming is overwhelming. The conclusion concerning the anthropogenic cause of the ongoing warming is unequivocal. No serious scientist disputes the fundamentals, even as the field recognizes residual uncertainties exist. As the rising youth movement for tackling climate change cannot be discredited by scientific evidence, the gradually shrinking pool of climate change deniers has resorted to deception. The resort to such tactics only serves to further illustrate the intellectual and scientific bankruptcy of those who deny climate change.

Personally, I think the mechanisms by which policy makers look to the future and devise policy are deeply flawed, untethered from meaningful prioritization (largely ignore the opportunity costs of doing nothing), and confined in at least semi-closed personal belief systems. The new UN synthesis report on climate change shows that dramatic changes need to be made to limit warming to 1.5C or 2.5C. The report also notes carbon emissions are not expected to peak by 2020 or even 2030. Having said that, history is filled with examples of overcome challenges and today's youth movement may well mark the early stages of a restoration of effective political leadership that is capable and willing to address big challenges.

The United Nations' synthesis report on the latest climate science information has now been released. Some excerpts: Average global temperature for 2015-2019 is on track to be the warmest of any equivalent period on record. It is currently estimated to be 1.1°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) times and 0.2°C warmer than 2011-2015. Observations show that global mean sea level rise is accelerating and an overall increase of 26% in ocean acidity since the beginning of the industrial era... CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use continue to grow by over 1% annually and 2% in 2018 reaching a new high. Growth of coal emissions resumed in 2017... Global emissions are not estimated to peak by 2030, let alone by 2020. Implementing current unconditional NDCs would lead to a global mean temperature rise between 2.9°C and 3.4°C by 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels, and continuing thereafter. The current level of NDC ambition needs to be roughly tripled for emission reduction to be in line with the 2°C goal and increased fivefold for the 1.5°C goal. Technically it is still possible to bridge the gap... Heatwaves were the deadliest meteorological hazard in the 2015–2019 period, affecting all continents and setting many new national temperature records. Summer 2019 saw unprecedented wildfires in the Arctic region. In June alone, these fires emitted 50 megatons (Mt) of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This is more than was released by Arctic fires in the same month from 2010 to 2018 put together. The complete report can be found at: https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/30023/climsci.pdf

IMO, if the focus is shifted to one of capitalism vs. socialism, that will be a recipe for preserving the status quo. Instead, the emphasis needs to be on addressing the challenge of climate change, not trying to use that challenge to pursue unrelated political goals. Like you, I believe nuclear power will be an important piece of any coherent approach to addressing climate change.

The last full day of summer featured lots of sunshine and summerlike warmth. As of 3 pm, New York City had a high temperature of 86° and Newark had registered a high temperature of 88°. On the Long Island Sound, a refreshing sea breeze kicked in during the middle of the afternoon. Three photos from this afternoon:

Just so there's no confusion, everyone enjoys free speech under the U.S. Constitution. However, the guarantee of free speech does not mandate that publications grant one's views equal weight to all other views. Thus, disproved or discredited theories typically won't appear in the scientific journals. They also won't be touted in the larger mainstream media. Still, that does not mean that those who hold such beliefs cannot enjoy their right to free speech. That's a crucial distinction.

Under brilliant sunshine, temperatures rose generally into the middle 80s across the Middle Atlantic region. Baltimore, Richmond, and Sterling reached 90°. Another very warm day lies ahead for tomorrow. Courtesy of low sea ice, abnormal warmth prevails in northern Alaska. There is an implied 84% probability that Utqiagvik will record its warmest September on record. It is possible that Utqiagvik could register its first 40° mean temperature for September. The existing monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. Despite the guidance, the strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Such a scenario may be somewhat more likely than not. That outcome could have significant winter season implications. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, six years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 5/6 (83%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2002 had one such week ahead of what would evolve into an El Niño winter. The SOI was -19.49 today. On September 19, the SOI fell to -35.30. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.481. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall. The latest EPS weeklies favor persistent ridging and warm anomalies in the East during October. The latest CFSv2 forecast for October also shows warm anomalies across much of the CONUS. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°. On September 20, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.377 (RMM). The September 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.610. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 86% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 53%. 　

One other statistic: Utqiagvik had 55 days with low temperatures of 40 or higher. The old record was 32.

The low sea ice and resulting Arctic amplification is a big reason why Utqiakvik (Barrow) had its latest first freeze on record (9/19 vs. the old record of 9/7) and has a chance of registering its first September with a mean temperature of 40° or above. The current monthly record is 37.7°.

On JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent had increased further to 4.054 million square kilometers on September 20. It is increasingly likely that the 3.964 million square kilometers measured on September 17 will prove to be the 2019 minimum figure. That would be the second lowest minimum extent on record.

To be fair, some of the big breakthroughs that led to contemporary understanding of anthropogenic climate change i.e., Hansen's work, Mann's proxy research, etc., were still years in the future. Today' scientific understanding of the fundamentals of climate change is unequivocal. Yet, there's a large gap between the urgent realities of the continuing rapid rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and political will. For at least the next 5 or perhaps even 10 years, the unfortunate reality is that a path pretty close to the status quo is probably the base case for policy. I very much hope my dreary assessment is wrong, because delay only magnifies the scale of an already great challenge.

Thank you for the kind words. Perhaps, as the number of climate scientists expands and the field increases in scale, such a professional organization will be established. Certainly, it would be beneficial, as the AMA has played an invaluable role in the medical field. I'm not sure how a Cabinet-level department can be safeguarded from political bias from a determined President/hostile Administration. In recent years, the EPA has essentially been stripped of its climate-related work and other federal scientists involved in climate-related research have been hindered or worse (e.g., the Department of Agriculture's climate research group). Congress has been unwilling or unable to protect them.

After another cool start, temperatures rebounded this afternoon. A very warm weekend now lies ahead. Temperatures will likely reach the 80s from Washington, DC to Boston. Yesterday, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) experienced its first freeze of the season. That was its latest freeze on record. The prior record was September 7, 2009. As a result, that city's 85-consecutive day stretch above freezing ended. The old record was 68 consecutive days, set in 2009. Both records are likely, in large part, due to low Arctic sea ice. There is an implied 78% probability that Utqiagvik will record its warmest September on record. The existing monthly record of 37.7° has stood since 1998. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. There remains uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this fall. Despite the guidance, the strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Such a scenario may be somewhat more likely than not. That outcome could have significant winter season implications. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, six years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 5/6 (83%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 2002 had one such week ahead of what would evolve into an El Niño winter. The SOI was -27.75 today. On September 19, the SOI fell to -35.30. Often an SOI figure at or below -30.00 during the second half of September has been followed by a warmer than normal October. 2002, which saw severe October blocking during which the Arctic Oscillation fell to as low as -5.098 on October 18, was an exception. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.020. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September was 69.1° (69.8° after adjusting for ongoing warming) and 58.9° (59.6° adjusted) for September through November in New York City. The 1981-2010 baseline normal figures are 68.0° and 57.5° respectively. The majority of cases saw a warmer than normal September and all cases featured a warmer than normal fall. Among those five cases, 2015 made a transition from predominantly negative AO values to predominantly positive ones during the fall. The combination of the AO's recent increase to the strongest positive values since April and some of the extended range guidance leave open a scenario where the AO is currently in the early stages of evolving to a predominantly positive regime. Such an outcome would also favor a warmer than normal fall and possible warm start to winter in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. For now, this is merely a hypothetical discussion of one potential path toward winter. Many other variables are involved. The only idea that carries weight at this time is that the possible evolution reaffirms the longstanding signal for a warm fall. The latest EPS weeklies favor persistent ridging and warm anomalies in the East during October. The latest CFSv2 forecast for October also shows warm anomalies across much of the CONUS. Therefore, a warmer than normal September and fall appear likely. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record remains on the table. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of 58.8°. On September 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.613 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.560. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal September is approximately 87% and the probability of a monthly mean temperature of 70.0° or above is 58%.

Most recent 90° or above readings in October: New Brunswick, NJ: October 9, 2007: 91° New York City-Central Park: October 6, 1941: 90° New York City-JFK: October 8, 2007: 90° New York City-LGA: October 6, 1946: 90° Newark: October 6, 1959: 91°

This overview of the carbon cycle explains the processes involved. http://www.columbia.edu/~vjd1/carbon.htm The net reduction to levels that predated those of the Eocene occurs over geological timeframes.

IMO, this study by Dr. Zhu, Dr. Tierney et al., is particularly important. The newer climate models have been showing greater warming than the prior ones for the expected RCPs. A better handle on cloud-related feedbacks, not modeling error, might be producing this outcome.