donsutherland1

Unseasonably mild weather will prevail through Columbus Day. Afterward, a short period of cooler weather will be followed by another warmer pattern for the southern New England areas. This cooler weather will likely coincide with a mid-week system that could bring much of the region 0.50"-1.00" rain with locally higher amounts. The last week of October will likely be mild, but a cool shot could occur at some point. The GFS remains most aggressive. The cool shot will likely be transient. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was +4.45 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.305. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.144 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.277. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. In August, the AO averaged -0.722 and in September the AO rose to +0.306. The possible transition to predominantly positive values from September into October has been a relatively uncommon occurrence. Since 1950, only 1963 and 2011 saw a transition of an August value of -0.500 or below to positive values in September and a positive average in October. Both cases featured a warmer than normal November in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Based on the latest extended guidance, the first week of November and possibly beyond could be warmer than normal overall. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 74%.

Both Central Park and LGA reached 78° on November 3. JFK reached 75°. Newark had a high temperature of 79°. So, 1990 came close, but just missed.

Clouds parted and it was a partly to mostly sunny afternoon at the New York Botanical Garden. Temperatures rose into the middle 60s. Four photos:

The slow recovery is certainly disconcerting. Unfortunately, there's still a lot of room for discovery when it comes to ice-related dynamics. FWIW, below is the difference between 2019 and 2012 in Arctic Sea Ice Extent for the past 7 days (2019 - 2012): 10/4 607,225 square kilometers 10/5 527,475 square kilometers 10/6 459,846 square kilometers 10/7 426,436 square kilometers 10/8 336,167 square kilometers 10/9 231,673 square kilometers 10/10 182,153 square kilometers 2019's slow ice growth relative to the faster recovery following 2012's record low figure may yet lead to 2019 falling below 2012's extent, especially as the Arctic was notably colder at this time in 2012 than it is today.

Yesterday, 7.1" snow fell in Bismarck. That easily surpassed the previous daily record for October 10 of 2.3" from 1959. Today, an additional 6.1" fell, surpassing the daily record of 1.6" from 1909. The 13.2" total is the earliest snowfall of at least a foot on record for Bismarck. The previous record was October 28-29, 1991 when 15.9" snow fell. In addition, 5 of the 6 12" or greater snowstorms (including the current storm) that occurred on or before November 30 took place after 1980. Record low temperatures were also set in parts of the West. Records included: Colorado Springs: 9° (old record: 14°, 1946); Denver: 9° (old record: 22°, 1946); Laramie, WY: 3° (old record: 9°, 1977); and, Pocatello, ID: 14° (old record: 19°, 2003). After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then, following perhaps a transient shot of cold, could still lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -4.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.535. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. On October 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.200. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 70%. 　

While that's probably not the most likely scenario, it is a possibility sometime after mid-October if things turn out a little warmer than currently shown on the guidance. November would be less likely, as such readings are relatively rare.

Yesterday, 7.1" snow fell in Bismarck. That easily surpassed the previous daily record for October 10 of 2.3" from 1959. In addition, it was the earliest daily snowfall of 6" or more on record. The prior record was established on October 23, 1991.

The following was posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1182331950318718978 While technically true, that is not a good use of the CFSv2. Several points are in order: First, the CFSv2 monthly forecasts are not typically skillful until 5-7 days out. Second, within 6 days, the CFSv2 had highlighted the potential for cold anomalies in the northern Rockies and Northern Plains. October 1-8, 2019 Temperature Anomalies: Third, if one applied the logic used to dismiss the CFSv2, which is not always accurate, it would be tantamount to judging the ECMWF's failure to forecast a significant storm from 5-days out when its forecasts from 72 hours and less were accurate. In general, there can be benefit to waiting for additional data before reaching conclusions. Model verification scores closer to events bear that out. Setting artificial cut-offs that deprive one of later data generally increases one's forecasting error.

On account of the nor'easter's taking a track farther offshore than modeled, much of the region enjoyed a partly to mostly sunny day with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Eastern New England and eastern Long Island experienced cloudy and windy conditions with at least some rain. Heavy rain affected Nantucket. Meanwhile, a strong taste of winter prevailed in the Northern Plains. Snow was falling across the Dakotas. Blizzard conditions were likely in a portion of North Dakota. Record cold also affected parts of the northwestern United States. Record low temperatures included: Cut Bank, MT: -3° (old record: 3°, 2009); Great Falls, MT: 0° (old record: 4°, 2009); Olympia, WA: 26° (old record: 27°, 1972); Pocatello, ID: 16° (old record: 18°, 1985); Quillayute, WA: 28° (old record: 31°, 1983 and 2008); Seattle: 34° (tied record set in 1946); and, Yakima, WA: 21° (old record: 24°, 2009). Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then could lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -9.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.612. During the July 1-August 31 period, the AO was negative on 56/62 (90%) days. Since September 1, the AO has been positive on 29/40 (73%) days. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, likely following a brief cool shot, as does the extended range of the EPS. The unseasonable warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 9, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The October 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.313. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days as occurred this year, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 62%.

Through 1 pm, Nantucket had received 1.64". That surpassed the October 10 daily precipitation record of 1.15", which was set in 1971. So far, New York City eastward across most of Long Island has been dry. Nevertheless, rain is now backing westward across the Twin Forks.

At this point in time, ice was growing very quickly in 2012. Unless the rate of ice growth accelerates, 2019 could fall below 2012 within the next 5-7 days.

Parts of the region are now in the midst of a cloudy, windy, rainy, and cool period on account of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain into Friday. In general, those areas could see 2"-4" rain with local amounts in excess of 6". A moderate rainfall could occur in the New York City area and nearby suburbs. Today, through 7 pm, daily rainfall records included: New London: 0.89" (old record: 0.83", 2016) and Westhampton: 1.67" (old record: 0.95", 1959 and 1995). Meanwhile, another unseasonably cold air mass has moved into the northern Rockies is headed toward the northern Plains. The potential for some record low temperatures exists through Friday with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Blizzard conditions could also develop in a portion of the Dakotas starting late tonight. Some areas in the Dakotas could see record low temperatures following the storm. From late tonight through Friday Bismarck could pick up 8"-14" snow. Bismarck's daily snowfall records are as follows: October 10: 2.3", 1959 and October 11: 1.6", 1909. Since 1874, Bismarck has had only four days on or before October 12 where 4" or more snow fell: October 4, 1898: 5.8"; September 25, 1942: 4.1"; October 7, 1946: 4.9"; and, October 6, 1982: 4.7". Bismarck's earliest ever daily snowfall of 6" or more occurred on October 23, 1991 when 7.6" accumulated. Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -9.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.970. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, likely following a brief cool shot, as does the extended range of the EPS. The unseasonable warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 8, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.321 (RMM). The October 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.320. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 18 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since July 6-24, 2004 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for a record 19 consecutive days. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%. The probability of New York City's receiving 50" or more precipitation this year is approximately 54%.

At 12:35 pm, daily rainfall at Westhampton had reached 0.97". That sets a new daily rainfall record for October 9. The previous record was 0.95", which was set in 1959 and tied in 1995.

A strong and slow-moving offshore storm will likely bring a moderate rainfall to the New York City area. East of New York City, especially Suffolk County and also the eastern half of New England will pick up a heavy rainfall over the next several days. While New York City will likely pick up 0.50"-1.00" rain, 1"-3" is likely in such locations as Bridgeport, New Haven, and Islip. 2"-4" rain is likely in Boston, New London, Providence, and Westhampton. Parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket could see 3"-6" with some locally higher amounts. Daily rainfall records for select locations for today are: Bridgeport: 1.30", 1992 Islip: 1.97", 1977 New Haven: 1.58", 1977 New London: 0.83", 2016 Westhampton: 0.95", 1959 and 1995 Through 8 am, rainfall totals for today were: Bridgeport: None Islip: 0.01" New Haven: 0.01" New London: 0.12" Westhampton: 0.15"

Yesterday, Great Falls had a daily record 7.2" snow (old record: 1.7", 1975). That brought the 2019-20 total to 26.5". That is by far the earliest Great Falls has ever reached 26.5" seasonal snowfall. The previous mark occurred on November 27, 1985 when Great Falls reached 26.4". The previous highest figure through October 8 was 13.2" from 1934.

Based on the reported precipitation during today's snowfall, Great Falls, MT has very likely surpassed 20" snow for the 2019-20 season to date. Prior to 2019, the earliest Great Falls recorded 20" or more seasonal snowfall was October 28, 1925.

A generally cloudy, cool, and wet period lies ahead, especially from tomorrow through Friday timeframe. Amounts of rain will depend on the track of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain for a time. A light-to-moderate rainfall could occur in the larger New York City area and nearby suburbs. Meanwhile, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies and then northern Plains. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe in that region with the highest probability initially being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Blizzard conditions could also develop in a portion of the Dakotas. Some record low temperatures could follow the storm's departure. Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -1.94 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.256. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.326 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.291. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 17 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since July 6-24, 2004 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for a record 19 consecutive days. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%.

Part of beach at Robert Moses State Park is already badly eroded.

Temperatures were generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic region today, especially from New York City southward. A generally cloudy, cool, and wet period lies ahead, especially around the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. Amounts of rain will depend on the track of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain for a time. A moderate to possibly significant rainfall could occur in the larger New York City area, though there remains considerable uncertainty. However, by the middle of this week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. This air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward. However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could become warmer than normal. Afterward, a ridge could redevelop in the East leading to a mild closing week of October. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -6.77 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.015. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.291 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.301. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 16 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 29-July 14, 2008 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 16 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 61%.

There’s a torrential downpour in the vicinity of Yonkers and Mount Vernon, NY.

While I agree with the literature in psychology related to cognitive biases and decision making, a subset of which relates to climate change denial (e.g., motivated reasoning), one would expect that a competent scientist would be in a stronger position to analyze and assess data objectively. That at least some can't likely demonstrates the power of cognitive biases and the barriers to objectivity that they present. He has dispensed with objectivity. Sustaining his belief depends on rejecting the enormous body of evidence that now makes the argument for anthropogenic climate change unequivocal from an objective, purely evidence-informed path. Thus, he greatly discounts the quality of the instrument temperature record, embraces a "magical" starting point (1980), ignores paleoclimate data and, in doing so, implicitly denies the expertise and knowledge developed by a wide range of scientists in a broad slice of science. Another explanation may also be involved: shifting attention from his own forecasting failure. Upon further research, it turns out that back in 2013, he forecast that the Northern Hemisphere would begin cooling in 2015. So, 2015 should have been cooler than 2014 according to his forecast. For purposes of comparison, the 2013 Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly (GISS) was +0.81°C and in 2014 it was +0.92°C. Since then, the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies have been: 2015: +1.18°C 2016: +1.31°C 2017: +1.18°C 2018: +1.04°C 2019: +1.18°C (January-August) During the January 2015 through August 2019 period, just 3 of 54 months have had a monthly anomaly that was cooler than the 2014 average while 43/54 months have had an anomaly of +1.00°C or above. IMO, just as the field of economics would benefit from a mechanism for tracking and evaluating forecasts and outcomes, the same applies here. There's nothing wrong with a failed forecast, as analysis of causes can lead to better future forecasts. Doubling down, though, is typically counterproductive, as it ignores the source(s) of the error. In this case, it seems that rather than trying to understand the cause of his failed Northern Hemisphere cooling forecast (growing anthropogenic forcing), he has decided to question the entire understanding of climate science.

A climate change denial website posted a story about Mototaka Nakamura who authored a book rejecting climate change. In part, the article states: “Global mean temperatures before 1980 are based on untrustworthy data,” writes Nakamura. “Before full planet surface observation by satellite began in 1980, only a small part of the Earth had been observed for temperatures with only a certain amount of accuracy and frequency. Across the globe, only North America and Western Europe have trustworthy temperature data dating back to the 19th century.” Nakamura's argument does not hold up. 1. The notion that 1980 was a magical point where temperature data suddenly became trustworthy has no basis in fact. Even if one relied strictly on the instrument record, the instrument record extends into the early 20th century and even middle to latter part of the 19th century over much of the world. One isn't dealing with "only a small part of the earth" where temperatures were observed with "accuracy and frequency." 2. It seems that Nakamura is largely or wholly unfamiliar with the paleoclimate record, or worse, dismisses it out of hand. Multiple proxies corroborate one another and point to the anomalous warming that has occurred particularly from the late 20th century to the present. One is dealing with tree rings, ice cores, corals, and sediments, among other proxies. 3. The physical properties of carbon dioxide have been known since the 19th century. Data for natural forcings e.g., solar irradiance exist. The recent temperature trend has decoupled from the trend in the natural forcings. When the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is considered, one has a very close match to the observed temperature trend. Nakamura has impressive credentials. But, it appears that he is unwilling or unable to take an objective perspective of the climate change issue. At the same time, he subjectively dismisses the credibility of the temperature data that exists (while imposing a magical "1980" point where the data became useful) while largely or wholly ignoring paleoclimate data.

Milder air returned to the region today. Despite mainly cloudy skies, readings were generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. However, by the middle of this week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. It remains uncertain whether this air mass will result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward. However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could become warmer than normal, especially during the closing week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -11.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.693. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.419. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 11-25, 2017 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 55%. 　

Yes. Even with today's mainly overcast skies, I saw some.

Five photos from Robert Moses State Park (Babylon, NY) where the temperature reached 70° this afternoon with a brief break in the clouds.