donsutherland1

With 1.06" rain through 5:54 am today from Michael, Asheville's total precipitation for 2018 has reached 57.82". 2018 now ranks as Asheville's 6th wettest year on record.

Yesterday's 71° low temperature at Central Park was Central Park's latest 70° minimum temperature on record. The previous record was set just last year when the low temperature fell to 71°. Bridgeport, with a low temperature of 70°, also recorded its latest 70° minimum temperature on record. Its previous record was set on October 9, 2017 with a low temperature of 71°. Finally, Tampa had its latest 80° minimum temperature on record. The prior record was set on October 9, 2009 and tied on October 9, 2017 with a low temperature of 80°.

With a temperature of 74° at 10 pm, it is very likely that today's low temperature at Central Park will wind up at 71°. If so, today's low temperature will be Central Park's latest 70° minimum temperature on record. The record for the latest 70° or above minimum temperature was set just last year when the low temperature fell to 71° on October 9.

And areas just outside the City had a small accumulation. Washington, DC picked up 0.3" and Philadelphia had 2.1". It was a remarkable and rare early October snowfall.

Select Preliminary Record High Minimum Temperatures for October 10: Albany: 67° (old record: 64°, 1913) Binghamton: 64° (old record: 56°, 1954) Boston: 68° (old record: 65°, 2017) Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 64°, 2017) Buffalo: 67° (old record: 65°, 1879) – yesterday’s 70° low was the latest such low on record Islip: 67° (tied record set in 1997) New York City-JFK: 66° (tied record set in 2017) New York City-LGA: 71° (old record: 69°, 2017) New York City-NYC: 71° (old record: 69°, 1949) Newark: 70° (old record: 66°, 1990 and 2017) Poughkeepsie: 63° (old record: 62°, 1949) Westhampton: 68° (old record: 62°, 1967) White Plains: 64° (old record: 62°, 1949, 1985, and 2017)

October 2017 was among three warmest Octobers in many cities in the Northeast. Select average temperatures and rankings: Allentown: 60.1° 2nd warmest October Atlantic City: 62.4° 2nd warmest October Boston: 61.4° 2nd warmest October Bridgeport: 62.3° warmest October on record Harrisburg: 61.2° 4th warmest Hartford: 59.9° warmest October on record Islip: 61.9° warmest October on record New Brunswick: 60.6° 3rd warmest New York City: 64.1° warmest October on record Newark: 63.8° warmest October on record Philadelphia: 64.5° 2nd warmest Providence: 61.2° 2nd warmest

It looks that way.

Cities from Washington, DC southward saw numerous 90° readings today. Washington's high of 90° was its first 90° temperature in October since the thermometer reached 91° on October 6, 2013. Atlanta (91°) and Tampa (92°) tied their daily record high temperatures.

Washington DC's (DCA) high temperature of 90° was its first October 90° day since the temperature reached 91° on October 6, 2013.

The 0.04” rain that fell over the past hour brought NYC’s yearly precipitation to 48.56”. That surpasses the 1969 figure of 48.54” to make 2018 NYC’s 42nd wettest year on record.

This morning's low temperature in Central Park was 61°. As a result, 2018 appears to be on course to become only the 26th case since 1869 when New York City had yet to see its first sub-50° reading through October 4. Down in the Southeastern United States, it almost appears as if summer has yet to give way to autumn. Atlanta's low temperature of 69° this morning puts the city on track for its 152nd consecutive day on which the temperature remained at or above 60°. The previous record was 136 days, which was set in 2002. Further, if the MOS guidance is correct, Atlanta may not see a low temperature below 60° through at least October 10. The latest occurrence of that city's first reading below 50° is October 9, 2002. Records go back to 1879. Even as New York Metro Area will see a modest push of cooler air to end the week, much of next week could experience readings above to much above normal. As a result, it appears likely that 2018 will become only the 11th year on record when the temperature had failed to drop below 50° through October 10. The extended range guidance has persistently indicated that a period of cooler than normal readings could occur starting around mid-month. However, it remains uncertain whether such a pattern will take hold. The very end of the guidance has slowly been migrating back toward more riding in the East. Should such ridging develop and persist, the closing week of October could wind up on the warm side of normal. The long-range teleconnection forecasts also hint at such an outcome. As a result, 2018 could mark New York City's second consecutive October with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. The last time that happened was 1953 and 1954. Applying sensitivity analysis to the guidance, the latest implied probabilities are: Above normal: 74% Mean temperature of 60° or above: 55%

I use these the regional climate sites, which can be found at: http://www.rcc-acis.org/aboutacis_rcc.html (click on the map for the appropriate region) Two that I use most frequently are: http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

Unfortunately, I am not aware of any sites that provide the standard deviations for temperature or precipitation.

It will be interesting to see if the WAR pattern continues to wind up stronger than predicted in the extended range. Certainly, the MJO progression helped. The Atlantic SSTAs may also be contributing.

That's very impressive.

October has started with a 500 mb pattern that features a ridge in the east and trough in the west in a fashion that is not dissimilar to October 2002. By the third week of October, a trough developed in the East. However, the current emerging El Niño event is weaker than the 2002-03 ENSO event was at this stage. It wouldn't surprise me if attempts by thr trough to shift into the East meet resistance from the seemingly ever-present western Atlantic ridge. If so, troughs in the East could prove to be transient through the remainder of the month. Overall, October still remains well on course to be warmer than normal in the East, especially over the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions.

Yesterday's rainfall in New York City was 0.69". Total precipitation for 2018 is now 48.52". That ranks 2018 as the 43rd wettest year, just behind 1969 when 48.54" precipitation fell. Bridgeport picked up 2.83".

As of 10:51 PM, New York City had picked up 0.44" rain. Total precipitation for 2018 has climbed to 48.27". As a result, 2018 has now surpassed 1893, when 48.26" precipitation fell, as New York City's 45th wettest year on record.

I agree. The increase in December-February median precipitation, slowing progression of systems based on research by Dr. Francis, among other variables may have contributed to this increased frequency in snowy winters. At some point, the ongoing warming may begin to offset the factors favoring increased snowfall.

Not necessarily. Indeed, with a weak El Niño, the odds may be somewhat tilted toward a snowy winter.

The ongoing climate change likely introduces greater uncertainty. It's probably not a coincidence that the snowy 2013-14 winter occurred following a warm, dry second-half of October. Hopefully, over the next two months, the pieces will begin to fall into place for a snowy winter. We'll see what happens.

Hopefully, the people had taken shelter in advance of the tornado.

The National Weather Service's report on the extraordinary warmth in western central and southwestern Florida during September can be found at: https://www.weather.gov/media/tbw/topnews/Sept2018_final.pdf

Based on the latest guidance, Harrisburg could have a mean temperature of approximately 69° for the first week in October. That would place the first week of October 2018 among the ten warmest such weeks on record. Records go back to 1888. The 10 warmest first weeks in October are: 1. 74.4°, 1941 2. 72.6°, 1959 3. 71.0°, 2013 4. 70.6°, 2007 5. 70.2°, 1922 6. 70.1°, 1900 7. 69.8°, 1931 8. 69.1°, 1898 9. 69.0°, 1927 10. 68.8°, 1995 From among that set of years, both 1900 and 2007 went on to see October finish with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. Only six years have had such warm Octobers. The six warmest years are: 1. 62.0°, 2007 2. 61.5°, 1984 3. 61.3°, 1947 4. 61.2°, 2017 5. 60.6°, 1900 6. 60.5°, 1971 Should 2018 finish with a 60° or higher mean temperature, 2017 and 2018 would be the first occurrence of consecutive years with such October warmth.

Based on the guidance and sensitivity analysis, the first week of October will likely see a mean temperature just over 69° (range: 67.0°-71.3°). Since 1869, 21 prior years had a mean temperature of 67° or above during the first week in October. Those cases had mixed outcomes for snowfall during the winter that followed. Six of those years saw less than 15" snow: 1900-01: 5.1” 1927-28: 14.5” 1931-32: 5.3” 1941-42: 11.3” 1954-55: 11.5” 2007-08: 11.9” Seven of those years saw 40" or more snow: 1898-99: 55.9” 1922-23: 60.4” 1995-96: 75.6” 2002-03: 49.3” 2005-06: 41.0” 2013-14: 57.4” 2017-18: 40.9” However, if one categorized the cases by October 16-31 temperatures and precipitation, there were two distinct clusters of outcomes. The mean October 16-31 temperature for all 21 cases was 54.8°. The mean October 16-31 precipitation for all 21 cases was 2.16" The Warm/Dry category (mean October 16-31 temperature > 54.8°/precipitation < 2.16") had median winter snowfall of 11.5". 4/5 (80%) of that cluster had seasonal snowfall < 20" and 2/5 (40%) had seasonal snowfall < 10". Least snowfall: 5.1", 1900-1901 Most snowfall: 57.4", 2013-2014 The Cool/Wet category (mean October 16-31 temperature < 54.8°/precipitation > 2.16") had median winter snowfall of 40.1". 5/6 (83%) of that cluster had seasonal snowfall 30" or more and 3/6 (50%) had seasonal snowfall of 40" or more. Least snowfall: 25.4", 1983-84 Most snowfall: 55.9", 1898-99 For now, it is a little soon to have much confidence in snowfall prospects for the upcoming winter. All categories (cool/wet, cool/dry, warm/wet, and warm/dry) had at least one very snowy winter. Only the cool/wet category had no winters with < 15" snowfall. Sample size constraints should be noted.