donsutherland1

At noon, the storm responsible for drenching parts of the Southeast under daily record rainfall was moving across eastern New England. Some additional showers are likely to persist through the day. Record daily rainfall amounts for November 12: Athens, GA: 2.37” (old record: 1.58”, 1992) Charlotte: 1.78” (old record: 1.54”, 2002) Florence, SC: 1.35” (old record: 1.33”, 2002) Greensboro: 2.46” (old record: 1.76”, 2009) Raleigh: 3.17” (old record: 3.12”, 1975) As of 12 pm, storm total rainfall amounts, year-to-date precipitation, and 2018’s ranking amount the wettest years for select cities were: Another storm will bring additional significant precipitation to parts of the region beginning on Wednesday. Extreme northwestern North Carolina could even pick up some accumulation of snow and sleet.

As of 10 pm, numerous cities in the Southeast had picked up 2.00" or more rain. The following cities had set daily precipitaton records: Athens, GA: 2.26" (old record: 1.58", 1992) Charlotte: 1.65" (old record: 1.54", 2002) Florence, SC: 1.34" (old record: 1.33", 2002) Greensboro: 2.29" (old record: 1.76", 2009) Storm total, year-to-date precipitation, and 2018's rank among the wettest years for select cities is below:

Parts of the Southeast have now received 1.50"-2.00" rain. Storm and annual precipitation totals for select cities as of 5 pm follow:

That's very likely out of reach, but 2018 will almost certainly finish second and could approach or reach 70".

With 0.79" rain as of 2:54 pm, Asheville had reached 64.00" precipitation for only the third time on record. Asheville has received 64.22" precipitation in 2018. The second highest figure is 64.91" from 1973.

You have my fullest condolences for the passing of your wife. I'm very sorry to read this sad news.

As of 12:52 pm, Atlanta had picked up 1.32" rain. That brings 2018's total precipitation to 54.85". As a result, 2018 has surpassed 1967 when 54.84" fell to become Atlanta's 35th wettest year on record. Atlanta's records go back to 1887.

The coming rainstorm has been getting underway across the South. Already, Atlanta has picked up 0.16" rain and Athens, GA has received 0.13". Periods of light rain have brought 0.02" to Nashville. In such cities as Atlanta, Florence, Greensboro, and Raleigh, 2.00"-3.00" rain is likely from the coming storm. The GFS has moved into better agreement with the NAM overnight. It still appears that the NYC Metro Area and nearby region will likely pick up 0.50" to 1.00" rain with local amounts as high as 1.50". Finally, New York City's Central Park continues to await its first freeze. Outside the City, temperatures were in the 20s at many locations. At 6 am, temperatures included: Danbury: 24°, Newark: 33°; Poughkeepsie: 24°, Westhampton: 21°, and White Plains: 29°. Following the storm, an even colder air mass should move across the region.

Another storm will likely bring a general 0.50" to 1.00" precipitation with isolated amounts of up to 1.50" to parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions late Monday night into Tuesday, including Boston, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. The following table depicts year-to-date precipitation, 2018's ranking, and ranking scenarios for 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation. Baltimore, Charleston (WV), and Reading remain on course to set a new annual precipitation record this year.

During the November 12-13 period, parts of the Southeast will likely pick up 1"-3" of rain. In the wake of the storm, 2018 will likely become among the 30 wettest years on record in a number of cities in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Wilmington, NC, which has already picked up a record 90.65" precipitation this year will add to its record. Below is year-to-date precipitation, the current rank for 2018, and scenarios for the ranking based on 1"-3" rainfall. Records in the above cities begin as follows: Athens: 1857 Atlanta: 1878 Elizabeth City: 1934 Fayetteville: 1910 Florence: 1948 Greensboro: 1903 Raleigh: 1887

Stunning photos.

Fantastic discussion, Isotherm. My thinking is a lot like yours right now. I suspect that December will have an outcome pretty similar to what happened in 2002 as Atlantic blocking tries to take hold. A pause might occur in January as was the case then, before February finished very strongly. Overall, I believe the predominant state of the teleconnections will be PDO+/EPO-/AO-. That's a great combination with a central Pacific-based El Niño event. I'm not sure about the NAO but note your research into that index. If it continues to prove accurate more often than not, it's a great breakthrough. Having said that, I'm a bit more aggressive with the snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region (as posted in the November AmWx contest) for such cities as Washington and New York. I currently have NYC at 50". Good luck with the forecast. You have shown skill and I expect that you will again do well.

New York City may flirt with its first 32° reading this season tonight. The 18z GFS MOS forecasts a low of 32° tomorrow morning. Should the temperature reach freezing, 2018 would register its second earliest first freeze during the last five years. First Freeze Dates: 2013: November 12: 31° 2014: November 18: 24° 2015: November 24: 32° 2016: December 9: 29° 2017: November 10: 25° The next 7-14 days will likely feature generally below normal readings. As a result, the probability that November will actually wind up cooler than normal on average despite the 16th warmest first week on record, has increased. The implied probabilities based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance are as follows: Below Normal: 55% Below 47°: 49% 48° or above: 42% Estimated range: 45.8° - 48.5° During the cold stretch, there is a small possibility that New York City could see its first measurable snowfall. It very likely wouldn't amount to much, but some EPS members hint at it. Afterward, the guidance leans toward a warmup during the last week of the month. The possibility that the cold gives way to warmer than normal temperatures would fit the outcome that followed the cold second half of October. In terms of precipitation, New York City's annual precipitation has now increased to 53.79". That ties 2018 with 2014 as New York City's 20th wettest years on record. Around the region, total precipitation amounts include: Allentown: 56.33" (5th wettest year) Atlantic City: 54.40" (5th wettest year) Bridgeport: 49.51" (9th wettest year) Islip: 51.84" (14th wettest year) New York City: 53.79" (20th wettest year) Newark: 46.90" (29th wettest year) Philadelphia: 49.70" (14th wettest year) Poughkeepsie: 48.64" (11th wettest year) In addition, Baltimore, Charleston (WV), and Reading are within 3" or less of their annual precipitation records. Late Monday night into Tuesday could see another potent storm bring a 0.50" to 1.50" rain from Philadelpia to Boston. Areas south and east of these cities would likely see the higher amounts. Based on both the historical (1869-2017) and recent (1971-2017) data for the 11/11-12/31 period, the implied probabilities for New York City's total 2018 rainfall are: 55.00" or more: Historical: 98%; 1971-2017: 98% 60.00" or more: Historical: 44%; 1971-2017: 56% 65.00" or more: Historical: 1%; 1971-2017: 4% Least 11/11-12/31 precipitation: 1.39", 1939 Most 11/11-12/31 precipitation: 14.99", 1983

A brief flurry passed through Mamaroneck a short time ago. It didn’t show up on the radar.

Typo, but perhaps it's appropriate with all the rain.

That’s very impressive. It has been an exceptionally wet year in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

2011-12 had just 18.5" snow. Very little snow fell in the East that winter. The record for 1945-46 is incomplete. With the likely El Niño/EPO- combination this winter, snowfall should be much higher than it was in 2011-12.

As of 4:16 pm, Scranton had received 0.70" rain. That brings total precipitation for 2018 to 53.78". As a result, 2018 has moved ahead of 1945 to become Scranton's 2nd wettest year on record. A total of 53.71" precipitation was recorded during 1945. Scranton's wettest year on record is 2011 when 59.99" precipitation fell.

Yes. So far, all looks good.

Flash Flood Watch Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 335 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-091000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0014.181109T2300Z-181110T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex- Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven- Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic- Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen- Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange- Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)- Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 335 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, and Southern Westchester. * From Friday evening through late Friday night * Low pressure will approach the tri-state area on Friday and pass through during Friday night. This will bring a period of moderate to heavy rain to much of the area. * Rainfall is expected to begin Friday afternoon into early evening and become moderate to heavy during the evening. The rain then becomes lighter and tapers off during the overnight hours. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in the evening. Rainfall amounts will generally average between 1 and 2 inches, however locally higher amounts will be possible. The combination of heavy rainfall and leaf clogged drainages will pose a threat for flash flooding across the watch area. In addition, quick water level rises are possible across small rivers, streams, and creeks, with flooding of adjacent areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued. && $$

Recent guidance, including the 12z NAM and GFS suggest that cities such as Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Providence will likely receive a general 1.00" to 2.00" rain during the November 9-10 timeframe. Already, 2018 ranks among the 30 wettest years on record in most of those locations. In some, it ranks among the 10 wettest years. Further south, Baltimore has already had its 3rd wettest year on record. 2018 will likely set a new record by the time the year concludes. Washington, DC has had its 6th wettest year on record. Wilmington, NC, where 90.45" rain has fall through early this morning has had its wettest year on record by far. A regional snapshot of year-to-date precipitation and rankings for various precipitation amounts from the upcoming system is below.

For the second month in a row, the first week was exceptionally warm in the New York City area. During the November 1-7 period, New York City had a mean temperature of 56.9°, which ranked 16th warmest on record for that period. This was also the warmest November 1-7 period following an October 16-31 period when NYC had a mean temperature below 50°. Just as had been the case in October, a period of colder than normal weather appears likely to follow. Such warmth during the first week of November does not necessarily mean that the winter will experience below normal snowfall. Since 1869, New York City has had 20 prior cases where the temperature averaged 56.0° or above during the first week in November. Mean snowfall for the winter ahead was 25.0" and median snowfall was 23.4". However, if one broke those cases into subsets, December snowfall provided a powerful clue as to the overall seasonal snowfall. In cases where December saw 1.0" or more snow, the respective mean and median seasonal snowfall figures were 31.1" and 31.9". 54% of such cases saw 30" or more snow while 23% saw less than 20". The mean and median figures were even higher from that subset following Novembers with 4.00" or more precipitation as appears likely to be the case this year. However, when it comes to the wet November cases within this subset, a lot of caution is required due to potential sample size issues. In contrast, in the cases where less than 1.0" snow fell in December, the respective mean and median figures were 15.8" and 15.5". In that subset, 13% of winters saw 30" or more snow while 75% saw less than 20".

It is somewhat surprising. Washington, DC also has only 3 such years: 1878, 1889, and 2003. 2018 has a shot at reaching 60".

With 0.20" rain today, Providence's total precipitation for 2018 has surpassed 50.00". 2018 is the 19th year on record during which Providence received 50.00" or more precipitation. 2011 was the last year that saw 50.00" or more precipitation. During 2011, total precipitation amounted to 56.72".

I like how things are evolving. Back on 10/31 in the AmWx temperature anomalies thread, I posted my early thinking in terms of seasonal snowfall and had 50" for NYC. The newest data gives me added confidence in that idea.