donsutherland1

Today, the temperature peaked at 53° in New York City's Central Park. That was New York City's warmest temperature since November 12 when the high temperature was 57°. Tomorrow could see a somewhat higher reading before colder air returns to the region. Even as another shot of cooler air arrives, accumulating snow in such cities as Newark, New York, and Philadelphia remains a low probability scenario through the remainder of November. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -11.65 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.250. On November 20, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.156 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.442. Even as the recent MJO progression through Phases 6, 7 and into 8 at high amplitude has typically preceded a mild December, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning the longer-term evolution of the teleconnections. To date, November has an AO average of -1.225. The November 16-21 AO average is -1.661. Since 1950, there were five years that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in November and -1.500 or below during the second half of November. Out of the total of 15 months that followed, the AO averaged < 0 during 12 (80%) and -0.500 or below during 10 (67%). This data suggests that the potential for above average frequency of AO blocking for winter 2019-2020 has increased. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 97% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Through November 20, parts of the Northeast have seen above normal snowfall. Amounts include: Albany: 2.1" (0.6" above normal); Bangor: 2.7" (1.9" above normal); Binghamton: 4.0" (0.2" above normal); Buffalo: 12.6" (7.7" above normal); Burlington: 11.0" (8.3" above normal); and, Caribou: 14.7" (7.5" above normal). For at least the next 7-10 days, accumulating snow in such cities as Newark, New York, and Philadelphia remains a low probability scenario. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -19.79 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.096. On November 19, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.772. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Since 1974, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 to 2.000 during the November 10-25 period on three or more days in eight years, as was the case this year. In 6/8 (75%) cases, the AO wound up averaging > 0 during December; in 5/8 (63%) it averaged +0.500 or above; and, in 4/8 (50%), it averaged +1.000 or above. In 2/8 (25%) cases, it averaged -2.000 or below (2005 and 2010). In 5/8 (63%) cases, December was warmer than normal in the New York City area. At present, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the Arctic Oscillation in the extended guidance. Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase. Should blocking persist, the amount of warming could be reduced. At present, there remains considerable uncertainty about the AO in the extended range. The EPS forecasts the AO's going weakly positive in early December. The GEFS suggests that blocking will persist into at least the first week of December. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 95% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Readings ranged from the upper 40s in the northern Middle Atlantic region to the lower 50s farther south. No new Arctic blasts are likely for at least the next two weeks. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -27.36 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.804. On November 18, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.775 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.459. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Since 1974, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.000 to 2.000 during the November 10-25 period on three or more days in eight years, as was the case this year. In 6/8 (75%) cases, the AO wound up averaging > 0 during December; in 5/8 (63%) it averaged +0.500 or above; and, in 4/8 (50%), it averaged +1.000 or above. In 2/8 (25%) cases, it averaged -2.000 or below (2005 and 2010). In 5/8 (63%) cases, December was warmer than normal in the New York City area. At present, there is considerable uncertainty concerning the Arctic Oscillation in the extended guidance. Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 94% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

While much of the region saw readings not far from 40°, record heat again prevailed in parts of California. Records included: Long Beach: 92° (old record: 90°, 1989); Los Angeles: 93° (old record: 88°, 1989); and, San Diego: 91° (old record: 86°, 1949). Overnight, most of the region will likely see periods of rain, but pick up less than 0.50" rain. Areas well to the north and west of New York City, especially in the higher terrain, could pick up a coating of snow. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around November 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.63°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -27.36 today. 　 An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.　 Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.264. 　 The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through at least late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal for the November 16-30 period). 　 On November 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.461 (RMM). The November 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.338. 　 The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. 　 It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.　 Overall, the preponderance of data continues to imply a milder than normal December in the East. Should ENSO Region 3.4 continue to warm, the Indian Ocean Dipole persist, and the Arctic Oscillation trend toward neutral and later positive, the probability of such an outcome would increase.　 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 92% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

Yet another example of a cruise ship that had no clue about the well-modeled storm that is raging off the Southeast. https://www.wbal.com/article/421416/3/baltimore-cruise-ship-delays-return-due-to-storm Hiring a meteorologist is a tiny cost per cruise and per passenger. It is almost incomprehensible that a major cruise line would sail blindly oblivious to forecast weather conditions.

Here's what I wrote, which is at the beginning of this thread: Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 3 days during the October 15-25 period, as occurred this year: 1990, 2011, and 2015. All three cases featured a warmer than normal November in New York City and readings that were 3° or more above normal during the second half of November. For that reason, the base case remains a warmer than normal November, but any warm anomaly will likely be much smaller than the October one. The initial sensitivity analysis suggests that New York City has an implied 40% probability of having a warmer than normal November. At the time, I noted the colder guidance, but had not expected the AO to assert itself in the way that has happened. The basic premise was that the MJO would continue to play a leading role in shaping the November outcome. That assumption proved incorrect leading to a bad November forecast. At present, there is considerable uncertainty about the AO's state in the extended range. One also cannot be sure when its predominant influence will wane and multiple factors, including but not limited to the MJO, will exert a greater influence.

Frigid air brought some additional record low temperatures to northern New England. Burlington tied its daily record low temperature of 7°, which had been set in 1924. At Caribou, the temperature fell to -1°, breaking the record low of 4°, which was set in 1943. More impressively, that is the earliest subzero temperature on record for Caribou. The prior earliest such reading occurred on November 21, 1959 with a temperature of -1°. On parts of the West Coast, record heat prevailed. Records included: Camarillo, CA: 94°(old record: 92°, 1932); Los Angeles: 93° (old record: 91°, 1949); Redding, CA: 87° (old record: 83°, 1895 and 1936); San Diego: 88° (tied record set in 1976); and, San Francisco: 74° (old record: 73°, 1989 and tied in 2008). As an anecdote, the following cases among the years cited above for which California's heat records were tied and broken, 1932, 1936, 1949, and 2008 saw a cold November and warm December in the East. 1976 and 1989 saw a continuation of the cold in December. In short, one cannot rule out a pattern change that results in a milder December, even if the guidance does not yet show such an outcome. A strong coastal storm will pass offshore tonight and tomorrow bringing some showers and perhaps periods of rain to the region, along with gusty winds. Most of the region will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. With a high temperature of 78°, Key West's record stretch of 234 consecutive days (from March 28 through November 16) with high temperatures of 80° or above came to an end. The prior record was 225 consecutive days, which was set in 1965. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -9.17 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.364. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through at least late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). On November 16, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.337 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.283. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. With the AO currently serving as the "king" of the Northern Hemisphere pattern, weakening of the AO domain blocking, could provide the first tangible evidence that a pattern change toward milder weather is imminent. For now, even as a milder than normal December appears more likely than not, the timing of the necessary pattern change remains uncertain. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 92% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November. November 2019 could finish with a monthly average temperature that could be the coldest since 2012 (43.9°) or perhaps even 1996 (43.0°) in New York City.

An Arctic air mass passed across northern New England today, only grazing parts of the region. Caribou had a low temperature of 8° this morning, which broke the previous daily mark of 10° from 1985. In contrast, Newark had a low temperature of 32°.　 The strong coastal storm that will lash the Carolinas tonight and tomorrow will pass sufficiently far offshore to avoid bringing much of the region significant rainfall. Most of the region, with perhaps the exception of parts of Suffolk County and New Haven County eastward will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Gusty winds are likely Sunday and Monday. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide.　 Miami's near-record streak of 225 consecutive 80° days, which began on April 5, ended today as the mercury topped out at 78°. That was just below the record of 227 consecutive days, which was set from March 31, 1994 through November 12, 1994.　 In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) remained on track for its warmest autumn on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Utqiagvik is on course for an autumn mean temperature 26.6°-27.4°. The record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016.　 In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly.　 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.　 The SOI was +1.84 today. 　 An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.　 Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.189. 　 The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative into late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). A pattern evolution toward a milder regime still appears likely to develop near the start of December as the AO is forecast to rise toward and then above neutral values. Should the current negative AO regime persist, such moderation would likely be delayed.　 Through November 16, the AO has averaged -1.059. Since 1950, 60% of cases that saw the November AO average -1.500 to -1.000 saw a December AO average below 0. Since 1950, 50% of November cases with an average AO of -.999 to -0.500 saw the AO average below 0 in December. In short, at present there is no clear signal regarding the possible predominant AO state for December.　 On November 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.278 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.860. 　 The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. 　 It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°.　 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 90% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly.

Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere's synoptic pattern. In part, this is why the East has been cold despite the NAO's being positive for 13/16 days this month. To date, it has averaged approximately -1.06 for November. It is likely to fall further before commencing a rise toward neutral near the end of the month. Such an outcome favors cold in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. Thus, the guidance, including the EPS and CFSv2 weeklies, has turned toward a cooler outlook for much of the remaining second half of November. The neutral EPO has reduced prospects of severe cold and the current Arctic air mass that grazed the region might be the last such outbreak for awhile. Composite Temperature Anomalies for an AO ranging from -2.00 to -1.00 (November 16-30, 1981-2018): In the extended range, the AO is forecast to go neutral and then possibly positive. AO Forecast (GEFS): Should that forecast verify, the cold pattern will likely break down unless the EPO or some other variable attains greater influence over the synoptic pattern than is currently the case (with perhaps a modest lag). For now, the AO is the key driver.

Globally, October 2019 was the second warmest on record on GISS. Only October 2015 was warmer.

In Chicago, the mean temperature was 31.2° for November 1-15. That was the coldest first half of November on record in Chicago. The previous record was 31.4°, which was set in 1991. Records go back to 1872.

Following a day where temperatures reached or exceeded 50° in much of the Middle Atlantic region, another shot of cold air will affect the region. The most significant cold anomalies will impact northern New England. New York City had a mean temperature of 44.8° for November 1-15. That was the coldest mean temperature for the first half of November since 1976 when the average temperature was 42.1°. In Chicago, the mean temperature was 31.2°. That was the coldest first half of November on record in Chicago. The previous record was 31.4°, which was set in 1991. Records go back to 1872. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was +0.51 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.436. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. The base case is now a widespread modest cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). On November 14, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.872 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 2.139. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

His observation is correct, at least since 1980. Since 1980, when precipitation during the 10/1-11/15 period was 0.5 sigma or more below normal, 58% of winters had seasonal snowfall below 20" in New York City. 25% had 30" or more. 2019 does not fall into that category. Its precipitation was 6.40", which was nearly identical to the 1981-2010 baseline normal figure of 6.31" for that period. 22% of winters following precipitation above -0.50 sigma for the 10/1-11/15 period saw less than 20" snow.

This is very sad. I'm sorry to hear about this.

That's a 3-month average. Personally, I think the extent of warmth is somewhat overdone. Also, the multi-model forecast didn't do too well in North America last year. It was also too warm in the Northern Rockies/Northern Plains for its September-November forecast.

A great link for those looking for a wide range of seasonal forecasts: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

A great link for those looking for a wide range of seasonal forecasts: https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3s_seasonal/

Not for the faint-hearted (at least those hoping for a cold winter)... The latest C3S multi-model system forecast temperature anomalies:

Record low maximum temperatures for November 13 included: Albany: 26° (old record: 31°, 1911) Allentown: 35° (old record: 36°, 1995) Atlantic City: 37° (old record: 39°, 1968) Binghamton: 21° (old record: 28°, 1977) Bridgeport: 33° (old record: 38°, 1995) Islip: 34° (old record: 39°, 2013) New York City-JFK: 35° (old record: 41°, 1968, 1977, and 2013) New York City-LGA: 35° (old record: 39°, 1977) Newark: 35° (old record: 41°, 1986, 1995, and 2013) Poughkeepsie: 32° (old record: 35°, 1962 and 1986) White Plains: 33° (old record: 35°, 1995)

Record cold shifted northward into northern New England. Record low temperatures were as follows: Bangor: 8° (old record: 11°, 1986) and Caribou: 3° (old record: 4°, 1986). In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, a cold morning was followed by a milder afternoon with readings returning to the 40s. Tomorrow will see temperatures rise toward or above 50° in much of the region. Nevertheless, November 1-15 will likely register a mean temperature of 44.5°-44.9° in New York City. That would be the coldest first half of November since 1976. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -6.49 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -2.735. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome increasingly indicates that the probability of cooler than normal readings for the second half of November has increased. Thus, an overall anomaly close to normal may now be more likely than a warm one. On November 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.137 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.291. The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 89% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

I will post them tomorrow morning at the latest. Most of the local area except for Central Park set them.

Record cold covered much of the region this morning. Records included: Allentown: 18° (tied record from 1996); Atlantic City: 21° (old record: 22°, 1995, 1996 and 2001); Baltimore: 22° (tied record set in 1911); Binghamton: 12° (old record: 14°); Bridgeport: 22° (old record: 23°, 1986); Islip: 23° (old record: 24°, 2001); New York City-JFK: 23° (old record: 25°, 1986); New York City-LGA: 24° (old record: 26°, 1986); New York City-NYC: 23° (old record: 24°, 1986); Newark: 22° (old record: 24°, 1986); Philadelphia: 23° (old record: 24°, 1996); Poughkeepsie: 15° (old record: 16°, 2013); Providence: 19° (old record: 20°, 2001); Scranton: 16° (old record: 19°, 1986); and, White Plains: 20° (old record: 23°, 1986). After a brief warmup, another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as the one that shattered records over the past two days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -10.12 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.785. The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative through the 10 days. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East during the second half of November. On November 12, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.290 (RMM). The November 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.351. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. The above data suggests that the second half of November will likely have a warm anomaly, though not necessarily a very warm one. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month, which will likely be the coldest first half of the month since 1976, has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. November 2019 will likely be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°. In addition, the MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 81% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

I don’t know. In any case, the NWS listed today’s low temperature as a record.

A record cold air mass has now pushed into the region. Prior to its arrival, Detroit saw a November record 9.2" snowfall (November 11-12), which eclipsed the record of 9.0" set during November 15-16, 1932. Record low maximum temperatures were set in numerous cities including: Buffalo: 25° (old record: 31°, 1983); Chicago: 17° (old record: 28°, 1894, 1940, and 1995); Detroit: 25° (old record: 31°, 1995; Indianapolis: 21° (old record: 26°, 1920); Milwaukee: 19° (old record: 23°, 1940); and, Rockford, IL: 16° (old record: 27°, 1940). Record low temperatures were set in among the following cities: Buffalo: 20° (old record: 22°, 1894, 1911, and 1921); Cedar Rapids, IA: -6° (Old record: 5°, 1986); Chicago: 7° (old record: 8°, 1986); Des Moines: 1° (old record: 4°, 1986); Dubuque, IA: -5° (old record: 6°, 1986); Indianapolis: 8° (old record: 14°, 1911); Little Rock: 20° (old record: 22°, 1911); Madison: 4° (old record: 7°, 1911 and 1986); Rockford, IL: 3° (old record: 7°, 1986); Springfield, IL: 5° (old record: 12°, 1986 and 1995); St. Louis: 11° (old record: 12°, 1911); and, Wichita, KS: 8° (old record: 9°, 1911). In the wake of today's Arctic frontal passage, numerous cities in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could challenge or set daily record low temperatures tomorrow morning. Select records for November 13 are: Allentown: 18°, 1996 Baltimore: 22°, 1911 Boston: 14°, 1883 Bridgeport: 23°, 1986 Harrisburg: 21°, 1911 Islip: 24°, 2001 New York City-JFK: 25°, 1986 New York City-LGA: 26°, 1986 New York City-NYC: 24°, 1986 Newark: 24°, 1986 Philadelphia: 24°, 1996 Poughkeepsie: 16°, 2013 Scranton: 19°, 1986 White Plains: 23°, 1986 Washington, DC: 22°, 1911 Another push of cold air is likely for the coming weekend. However, that air mass won't be as cold as the approaching one. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. The SOI was -9.17 today. An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.181. Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month. On November 11, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.352 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.450. The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal. Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions within a few days of November 20, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region. It is likely that November 2019 will be somewhat warmer than November 2018 when the monthly mean temperature was 44.4°. In addition, the MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. That development reinforces the idea from the strongly negative SOI earlier this month that December will be likely be warmer than normal. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December. The mean temperature for those five cases was 39.7°. The 1981-2010 normal monthly temperature for New York City is 37.5°. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 79% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.