donsutherland1

A handful of U.S. representatives did so, but they are deflecting from their own policy responsibility. Tom Tiffany and Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin and Michelle Fischbach, Brad Finstad, Pete Stauber and Tom Emmer of Minnesota signed a letter to Canada's Ambassador to the U.S. complaining about Canada's wildfire smoke. All but Stauber reject the reality of climate change. Stauber claims to accept it but to want a technology-based solution rather than fossil fuel phaseout, but even that position isn't credible. He voted in favor of this year's reconciliation bill that guts the technology-based climate solutions from the Inflation Reduction Act. They are posturing. Finally, regarding geoengineering with its attendant risks (e.g., impact on India's monsoon season) and limitations (does nothing to stop ocean acidification), if the world's nations cannot agree on a binding straightforward solution to a basic physics problem behind the causes of climate change, it's highly unlikely that they would agree to a more complex agreement on geoengineering that would set food-sharing provisions e.g., if India's monsoon fails, other set binding approaches for addressing other major contingencies that could arise. Moreover, the caliber of the world's leaders doesn't compare to those of the 1980s or 1990s when the acid rain and ozone issues were addressed and the international processes e.g., COP conferences, are corrupted by allowing major polluters full standing to shape the outcomes.

ECMWF Monthly Anomalies for Select Cities: Main idea: The best of winter would be December-January in the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England areas, if the guidance is correct. The Southwest would be warm for the fall and winter. Buffalo and Toronto: September: +1.3 October: +0.8 November: +1.3 December: +0.4 January: 0.0 February: 1.3 Savannah: September: +0.8 October: +0.8 November: +0.8 December: +0.4 January: +0.8 February: +1.8

Somewhat cooler air will move into the region following a dry frontal passage. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal. Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely, but the probability of such heat has increased somewhat. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -18.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.216 today.

Perhaps it is this story: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1092740?

2.7 for the aftershock.

The newly released ECMWF Seasonal Forecast for Fall shows somewhat warmer than normal conditions in the Central U.S. The CANSIPS with its cold outlook there is an outlier.

Sorry, I thought you were referring to snowfall maps. If I recall correctly, the NAO map showed a 0.5 correlation for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and lower correlation for the Northeast/Great Lakes areas. Also, the correlation has weakened since 1990.

My snowfall contingency tables for DCA, PHL, and NYC are AO-PNA tables.

I hope the Giants will have a better year this upcoming season.

A period of extreme heat will affect Phoenix and Tucson this week, peaking on Wednesday and Thursday. Daily record highs will fall and the August monthly records will be challenged. The long-term August trend for Phoenix is hotter and drier.

2025 is the 7th year during which Newark had 30 or more 90° or above highs by August 4th. Today was its 31st such day. Here's how things evolved during the prior six years:

Newark hit 90° for the 31st time this year. That is tied with 1987 and 1994 for the fourth highest figure on record through August 4. Tomorrow will be another very warm day with highs in the middle and upper 80s across the region. A cold front will cross the region afterward. The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal. A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -19.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.253 today.

No.

Since 1970, (at least through 2010), Philadelphia's heat island has been fairly stable. Here's a paper: https://www.fs.usda.gov/nrs/pubs/jrnl/2023/nrs_2023_locke_001.pdf Most of Philadelphia's warming has been due to climate change. Philadelphia has warmed about 0.8° per decade vs. 0.6° per decade for all of Pennsylvania since 1970.

It should be noted that the July 1980 mean monthly temperature of 92.0° at Dallas-Fort Worth has been exceeded by two months. August 2011 (93.4°) and August 2023 (92.9°) were hotter.

Not until at least my son finishes college (he's only starting high school this fall).

90s are possible. I don’t think it will rival the late June and also peak July heat. The Atlantic might see 1-2 tropical cyclones, but the forecast pattern isn’t one that favors landfalls. A lot can still change given the lead time.

It will turn briefly noticeably warmer for tomorrow and Tuesday before another somewhat cooler air mass arrives. Durng tomorrow, smoke could dim the sun at times and lead to air quality issues, especially north of New York City. The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal. A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -19.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.307 today.

Thanks. No, I don't have a boat. Perhaps when I retire, I'll get one.

Still deep blue skies in southern Westchester County. That will likely change this afternoon.

Didn’t feel it in southern Westchester. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000qxsb/executive

A break in the heat is now underway. The day started with another round of unseasonably cool readings. Low temperatures included: Bridgeport: 62° Danbury: 55° Farmingdale: 60° Islip: 60° New Haven: 61° New York City-Central Park: 63° New York City-JFK Airport: 62° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 65° Newark: 62° Philadelphia: 64° Poughkeepsie: 52° White Plains: 58° Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. It could briefly turn warmer for Monday and Tuesday before another somewhat cooler air mass arrives. The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. There remain hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop around August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was -8.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.017 today.

The CANSIPS (cool) and CFSv2 (warm) are at odds regarding the fall outcome in the central U.S. It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF seasonal forecast shows when it comes out in a few days.

A break in the heat is now underway. This morning featured refreshingly cool temperatures. Central Park saw a low of 63°, which was its coolest low temperature since June 28 when the low was also 63°. Low temperatures included: Bridgeport: 62° Danbury: 61° Farmingdale: 63° Islip: 65° New Haven: 63° New York City-Central Park: 63° New York City-JFK Airport: 65° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 64° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Poughkeepsie: 59° White Plains: 61° Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. It could briefly turn warmer around the middle of next week. There remain hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +3.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.359 today.

Yesterday, Bridgeport recorded 0.20" of rain, while Islip measured 2.93". This marks the lowest rainfall on record at Bridgeport on a day when Islip received 2.50" or more. The previous record was set on August 19, 1990, when Islip recorded 3.83" and Bridgeport received 0.39".