donsutherland1

On the issue of oceans, here’s a link to a paper that was published earlier this year: https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00376-020-9283-7.pdf

An insightful piece from CBS meteorologist Jeff Berardelli: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-extreme-weather-wildfires-snow-jet-stream/

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and very humid. Showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely. Overall, much of the region will likely pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain with some locally higher amounts. Overall, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. An autumn-like air mass will likely arrive late this week. Another cool air mass could arrive next week. Beyond that, some of the guidance is hinting at a possible dramatic and sharp decline in the PNA. Such a pattern, should it develop, would favor a return to warmer and perhaps much warmer than normal conditions late in the month. Numerous record low temperatures were established overnight in the Rockies and parts of the Southwest. Select low temperatures included: Albuquerque: 39° (old record: 43°, 1915) Amarillo: 37° (old record: 44°, 1941) Casper: 25° (old record: 29°, 1962) Colorado Springs: 30° (tied record set in 1941) El Paso: 53° (old record: 55°, 1882 and 2004) Denver: 30° (old record: 31°, 1962) Lander, WY: 23° (old record: 26°, 1903 and 1962) Snowfall totals through September 8 included: Burris (11 WSW), WY: 17.0" Casper: 7.5" Cheyenne: 1.1" Denver: 1.0" Lander: 4.7" At Denver, yesterday's 1.0" snow followed a four-day heat wave. The temperature on September 7 reached 93°. That was Denver's highest temperature one day before the city received measurable snowfall. The previous record was 92° on September 12, 1993. At the Rapid City National Weather Service Office in East Rapid City, September 5 saw the temperature reach 102°. Just two days later on September 7, 1.0" snow was measured. The air mass responsible for the record cold could send the temperature below 70° tonight in Phoenix. Temperatures below 70° on September 10 or earlier have become very uncommon occurrences. The last time the temperature was in the 60s on or before September 10 was August 28, 2008 when the mercury fell to 64°. The number of occurrences by recent decade are below: 1970s: 9 days 1980s: 6 days 1990s: 3 days 2000s: 1 day 2010s: None The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are now developing. The SOI was -6.00. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.381. On September 8, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.605 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.750. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5°.

Yes, there’s a lag. That’s why scientists refer to “committed warming.”

In a paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research on August 20, 1988, Dr. James Hansen and seven co-authors wrote, "Our model results suggest that global greenhouse warming will soon rise above the level of natural climate variability." They explained that if the temperature "rises and remains for a few years above an appropriate significance level, which we have argued is about 0.4°C for 99% confidence (3σ), it will constitute convincing evidence of a cause and effect relationship i.e., a 'smoking gun,' in current vernacular.” Today, global temperatures are routinely more than 0.4°C above what they were in 1988. That forecast for greenhouse gas warming was arguably the greatest long-range weather or climate forecast ever made. In the research that built upon that work and new findings that followed, the world's climate scientists warned that adding heat to the global climate system would lead to more weather extremes (temperature, precipitation, drought, and storms). They warned that the consequences of such extremes would be severe. Last year, Europe experienced its worst heat waves in history. At the height of the extreme heat, Paris saw the temperature soar to a previously unthinkable 109°. Anchorage reached 90° for the first time on record in a summer that saw June, July, and August all set monthly records for warmth. This year, Siberia was gripped by exceptional warmth that saw the temperature soar to 100° within the Arctic Circle. Phoenix experienced its warmest summer on record. Death Valley registered a 130° temperature, which is likely the highest reliably recorded temperature in world history during the instrument record. Greater heat, more prolonged heat waves, and more frequent compound high minimum and maximum temperature extremes were forecast by the climate scientists. Those forecasts proved accurate. Australia's record-breaking fire season of summer 2019-20 was no fluke. The West Coast's current fire season, its worst fire season on record, which has already seen 2.3 million acres burned in California, is no random occurrence either. A growing body of scientific literature revealed the growing risk of a hellish trinity of heat, drought, and fire. In an act of responsible journalism, The Washington Post linked the raging West Coast wildfires to climate change explaining, "The wildfires come after a record-shattering heat wave and amid human-caused climate change that is heightening fire risks, along with temperatures, in the West." Such context is the lowest common denominator of sound journalism in the era of climate change. Imagine, for a second that seasonal forecasts for the winter ahead or summer ahead calling for one's preferred weather verified over and over and over again. One would hail those making the forecasts. Such acclaim has not been showered on the world's climate scientists. Yet, the level of skill described above in the hypothetical seasonal forecasts has actually been demonstrated by the world's climate scientists, at least as far as the cause of climate change and its big picture implications are concerned. They have been right over and over again. That public policy has been frozen does not detract from the outstanding results they have demonstrated from their work. The enormous body of evidence built by the world's climate scientists coupled with the lack of a body of evidence for alternative explanations of even a fraction of this evidence demonstrates that there is no reasonable explanation for the observed warming since the mid-20th century except for anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Human activities and the greenhouse gases emitted from those activities--not the sun, not the oceans, and not "hail Mary" appeals to cosmic rays--are the principal driver of the observed warming. The case for AGW has been proved in the scientific literature. AGW has been experienced by people in real life in the now annual or more frequent return of "once-in-a generation" or even "hundred-year" events. Human greenhouse gas emissions are now leaving behind the world in which humans first evolved and bestowing on future generations a completely different world in which humans might never have evolved. The scientific arguments are over. The scientific debate has ended. Society has a moral obligation to render the correct verdict based solely on the evidence before it. The case for AGW has been proved. It has been proved well beyond the threshold of "beyond a reasonable doubt." Now, concrete action must follow.

During 1971-2018, 89% of the earth's growing energy imbalance was stored in the oceans. That has led to rising oceanic heat content at all depths. Source: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/essd-12-2013-2020.pdf With the earth experiencing a persistent positive energy imbalance (now +0.87 W/m^2), of which the overwhelming share is being stored in the oceans driving rising oceanic heat content at all depths, what would trigger a large-scale sustained oceanic cooling cycle? Such an event is not realistic as long as the energy imbalance persists.

I might be a bit pessimistic, but I suspect that it will take either the Millennial Generation or Generation Z to bring about the big changes needed. By that time, the societal commitment to even greater warming will already have been made by current policy choices. Tragically, the status quo has too much momentum at present. Generations preceding the Millenial Generation are, by and large, overly committed to the status quo. We are exceptions to that condition. These earlier generations see fossil fuels as an immutable part of the energy landscape. In contrast, at least the early opinion polling shows that the Millennials reject notions of a fossil fuel constraint. They don't see the industry as "untouchable." But for now, their political influence is limited. Historic experience reveals that societies can make great technological leaps over very short periods of time. Development of the atomic bomb, the technologies needed to reach and return from the moon safely, and the rapid emergence and development of the Internet and related technologies provide some examples. The energy sector, with some modest exceptions, has been relatively stagnant when compared against the above examples. Advances have been incremental e.g., how to extract hard-to-reach fossil fuels via fracking, etc., as opposed to the development of carbon free sources despite the companies' possessing enormous financial resources and engineering talent. Absent sustained and growing pressure for big and rapid change e.g., the kind of pressure present during the Manhattan Project, large parts of the energy sector could well remain a relative backwater. The Millennials and Generation Z will likely place increasing pressure for big breakthroughs through their societal choices. Both see addressing climate change as the biggest and most urgent issue confronting their generation. As their political clout grows, they will likely favor policy changes that require fossil fuel companies to pay for externalities associated with carbon pollution--and yes, pollution is the correct term, as excessive dumping of even naturally-occurring compounds can be hazardous to the environment. Once that happens, the balance of incentives will shift toward carbon-free energy. Ensuring that fossil fuel producers pay the full costs of their carbon pollution would probably accomplish far more than simply eliminating tax expenditures that help incentivize such production. One complicating factor is that certain countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, even if the U.S. changes its policy course, may stubbornly persist in producing and marketing fossil fuels. They may even subsidize them to a greater extent than exists today to keep such energy sources viable.

.87. Small typo on my part, but a huge problem were the mistyped figure accurate.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers could arrive in parts of the area late in the day or at night. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 81° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 82° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through much of the week. Cooler air could arrive late in the week. September 9 has the lowest figure for record daily precipitation in Central Park. The record is just 0.86", which was recorded in 1903. Records go back to 1869.

The idea that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have become the dominant forcing driving the observed warming is settled. That’s a fairly narrow point. There is no compelling alternative explanation in the literature. That’s why the IPCC is considering upgrading its assessment to 99%-100% confidence in that idea. In the larger scheme of things, nuances and uncertainties exist. Questions about feedbacks persist. Finally, a newly published paper found that the earth’s energy imbalance has increased to +.87 W/m^2 in recent years. That may seem small, but it’s a very large imbalance.

Decades. As far back as the 1930s the risks associated with tobacco had become clear. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK294310/

I would hope that humanity would act to avert the worst of climate change.

Because they were multiple fires that merged into a single massive blaze.

Here’s the attribution study. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Prolonged-heat-Siberia-2020.pdf At this point, at least within the scientific realm, the argument about climate change is a settled one. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are the dominant driver of the ongoing observed warming.

Select snowfall amounts for September 8: Casper: 5.2” (old record: 0.2”, 1962) ...2-day total: 7.5” (with yesterday’s 2.3” the earliest measurable snowfall on record) Cheyenne: 0.5” Lander, WY: 2.7” (old record: 2.4”, 1962) ...2-day total: 4.7”

I hope we get some blocking this winter. Otherwise, it could be a really depressing season.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures will likely still rise into the lower 80s in many parts of the region. Overall, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The probability of the arrival of an autumn-like air mass near or just after mid-month has increased. Following the historic heat in the Southwest, very cold air has plunged into the Rockies. Already, yesterday Casper recorded its earliest measurable snowfall on record. Numerous cities set record low maximum temperatures today. Select examples include: Casper: 33° (old record: 46°, 1941) ***earliest high temperature below 40°; prior record September 13, 1970: 39°*** Cheyenne: 32° (old record: 36°, 1929) Lander, WY: 34° (old record: 49°, 1962) ***earliest high temperature below 40°; prior record: September 11, 1903: 37°*** In addition, at 8 pm EDT, Denver was receiving light snow. Snow accumulations are likely tonight. Numerous record low temperatures will be established. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are now developing. The SOI was -2.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.270. On September 7, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.751 (RMM). The September 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.723. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5°.

Denver reached 32 degrees earlier today. It’s now had its first freeze.

The findings in Mann’s paper were largely reaffirmed. https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/rc4a/millennium/refs/Wahl_ClimChange2007.pdf The body of evidence behind AGW is robust. There is no compelling alternative, much less one that has even a fraction of support in the literature that exists for AGW. Actually, I believe the issue isn’t that climate science hasn’t proved its case so to speak, but that those who reject the overwhelming evidence for AGW are demanding a level of certainty not expected from other fields or disciplines.

Thanks Bdgwx.

Some webcams in the Casper area: https://www.wyoroad.info/highway/webcameras/I25Casper/I25Casper.html

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and quite warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 86° Somewhat warmer than normal conditions will likely prevail through much of the week. Cooler air could arrive late in the week. Elsewhere, yesterday saw Casper pick up 2.3" snow. That was that location's earliest measurable snowfall on record. The previous earliest snowfall occurred on September 8, 1962 when 0.3" fell. At Lander, WY, 2.0" snow fell. That surpassed the daily record of 0.3", which was recorded in 1941.

And a timely new paper on this topic: https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/2013/2020/essd-12-2013-2020.pdf

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and somewhat warmer than today. Overall, the first half of September will likely wind up somewhat warmer than normal. The probability of the arrival of an autumn-like air mass near or just after mid-month has increased. On its final day, the historic September heat wave of 2020 brought high temperatures to the Southwest. Select high temperatures included: Blythe, CA: 113° (old record: 112°, 1994) Death Valley, CA: 116° El Centro, CA: 113° (old record: 112°, 1934, 2008, 2011, 2018 and 2019) Flagstaff: 88° Kingman, AZ: 107° (old record: 105°, 1932) Lake Havasu City, AZ: 117° (old record: 114°, 1977, 1986 and 1994) Las Vegas: 106° Needles, CA: 117° (old record: 116°, 1923) Palm Springs, CA: 109° Phoenix: 109° Sacramento: 105° (old record: 103°, 1957) Tucson: 103° Yuma, AZ: 108° An update for the September 1-7 period for Phoenix can be found here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53697-phoenix-records-its-hottest-summer-on-record/?do=findComment&comment=5650331 Following the historic heat, record cold will plunge into the Rockies late Monday and Monday night. As the temperature plunges, Denver could pick up only its fourth measurable snowfall on record prior to September 15. Recordkeeping began in 1872. The prior events were: September 3, 1961: 4.2" September 8, 1962: 0.7" September 13, 1993: 5.4" In addition, Denver could see its earliest temperature below 30° during the coming cold shot. The current record is September 14, 2003 when the temperature fell to 29°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are now developing. The SOI was +13.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.079. On September 6, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.721 (RMM). The September 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.821. Since 1990, there have been 11 La Niña events, 6 of which followed an El Niño winter. 10/11 (91%) case saw warmer than normal September. All 6 following an El Niño winter were warmer than normal. September mean temperatures for New York City for those cases were: 11 cases: 69.9°; Subset of 6 cases: 70.8°; Entire 1990-2019 period: 69.0°. The September mean temperature for all La Niña and neutral-cool cases following an El Niño winter (1950-2019: n=13) was 69.9°. Overall, the evolution of ENSO, along with the observed ongoing monthly warming (1.6°/decade in NYC and 1.5°/decade in the Northeast Region during September 1990-2019), favors a warmer than normal September. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September. September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.5°.

September 1-7 Update: Phoenix experienced its hottest summer on record. Following that, it experienced one of its warmest first weeks of September on record. With climate change, the intense heat of increasingly hot summers is lingering longer. Summer is now stretching into the opening week of September. September 1-7, 2020 Summary: Average high temperature: 108.9° (tied 2nd highest) Average low temperature: 85.9° (6th highest) Average temperature: 97.4° (tied 2nd highest) Since 1980, the 30-year moving average mean temperature for the first week of September has increased 4.3°. The summer mean temperature has increased a similar 4.0°. Table 1: Average Summer and September 1-7 Temperatures (30-Year Moving Average) September 1-7, 1928 was the first case during which the mean temperature reached 90° (90.0°). By 1995, the mean temperature (30-year moving average) reached 90° for the first time (90.1°). September 1-7, 2006, with a mean temperature of 88.7°, was the last case during which the mean temperature was less than 90° during the first week of September. The first week of September is now as warm as the typical summer was during the 1971-2000 period. Average low temperatures now come to 80° or above. The last time the first week of September saw a weekly mean temperature below 80° was 2009 when the average temperature was 79.6°. The average number of days on which the high temperature reached 100° or above and 105° or above has also increased in recent years. Table 2: September 1-7 Select Data (30-Year Moving Average) Since recordkeeping began in 1895, Phoenix has had 11 cases during which the mean temperature was 95.0° or above during the first week of September. Eight (73%) of those cases occurred during 2000 or later. Six (55%) of those cases occurred during 2010 or later. September 4-6, 2020 was the hottest three-day period on record in September: Mean Temperature: 100.5° (highest on record) Mean High Temperature: 114.0° (highest on record) Mean Low Temperature: 88.7° (2nd highest on record; record: 89.3°, September 5-7, 2019) Table 3: Record High Maximum Temperatures Table 4: Record High Minimum Temperature Just as summer 2020 provided a foretaste of the kind of summers that are expected to become routine by 2050 on account of climate change, the first week of September 2020 offered a glimpse into the future of the staying power of summer's most intense heat under the evolving climate regime.