donsutherland1

After a cold start, especially outside the City where temperatures fell into the teens with some single digits (Danbury reported a 6° low and Poughkeespie had a minimum temperature of 7°), temperatures rose into the upper 30s in the region. Temperatures will likely run above normal through the remainder of January. However, a mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Records go back to 1869. Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February. As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. The pattern could begin to grow more favorable for snow on the coastal plain during the beginning of February should the Arctic Oscillation (AO) fall toward neutral levels. Before then, a storm could bring 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation, mostly or all rain, to Washington, DC to Boston this weekend. A moderate snowfall with some locally significant amounts could occur across central and upstate New York, central and northern New England, and parts of southern Ontario. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was -6.17 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.544. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 30. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.044 (RMM). The January 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.153. The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 39.0° in New York City. The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 60%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

For early February reference, below are the 500 mb height anomalies for snowstorms that brought 6" or more snow to Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia (all 3 locations) during the February 1-15, 1950-2019 period. Storms that commenced prior to February 1 or continued after February 15 are excluded. One typically found a Greenland-Hudson Bay block and/or a PNA+ ridge coupled with a trough in the East. The variation on a case-by-case basis should also be noted.

Some quick morning thoughts... It has been a warm and dry January so far in the Mid-Atlantic region. Through January 21, precipitation in New York City is 1.06" (1.47" below normal) and in Philadelphia it is 1.00" (1.05" below normal). The combination of limited precipitation and limited cold has led to very low monthly snowfall amounts so far (2.3" in New York City and 0.2" in Philadelphia). A storm will likely bring a moderate to perhaps significant amount of precipitation (0.50" - 1.50") to the region this weekend, but the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic region will likely see little or no snow. Philadelphia will likely finish January with less than 1" snow for the season and New York City will likely finish with less than 6". As January nears an end, there remains no credible evidence of the kind of "shock" that could bring significant change to the hemispheric circulation. The Polar Vortex is likely to remain strong with a predominant positive AO. The EPO looks to remain positive. The stratosphere looks to remain cool. As a result, February could begin on a mild note. Cold could still arrive near the end of the first week of February or just afterward, but such cold likely won't be severe. At the same time, the risk that February as a whole could wind up on the warm side of normal has increased. That's not yet the most likely outcome, but it's a scenario that cannot be dismissed.

Warmer conditions will likely develop starting tomorrow. No exceptional warmth appears imminent, but readings will likely run above normal through the remainder of January. A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Records go back to 1869. Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February. As long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 such storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall will likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was -3.62 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.483. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 29. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 20, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.152 (RMM). The January 19-adjusted amplitude was 2.644. The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. The MJO moved into Phase 7 on January 20. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied near 100% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.5° in New York City. The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 50%. The 10th warmest January occurred in 1906 with a monthly mean temperature of 38.4°. The 9th warmest January was January 1949 with an average temperature of 38.6°.

IMO, the boundaries you suggest are good. In fact, there are some people who live in Pike County but commute to NYC despite the distance. Also, I think a fuller discussion, even when New York City is likely to receive less than an inch of snow is better than a more limited one. I hope you continue posting as you currently post. The discussions are invaluable.

The March 2019 events were two separate ones.

6.4" fell on November 15, 2018 creating significant travel problems, as the City was caught unprepared for the snow.

It depends on the kind of ENSO event. A strong basin-wide event would likely lead to warmth absent strong blocking.

In general, an El Niño leads to a more active subtropical jet stream and a northward displacement of the polar jet stream. That's the general idea, but differences exist, because differences in anomalies in each of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO Regions) have an impact. Major ENSO Regions, from East to West, are Region 1+2, Region 3, Region 3.4, and Region 4. Often, when the El Niño is Central Pacific-based (Region 3.4 anomaly > Region 1+2 anomaly), the subtropical jet is active, but the polar jet is not displaced as far to the north as would be the case in an East-based or basin-wide El Niño event. Therefore, one often sees above average snowfall in the Northeast. Here's a useful link that explains El Niño: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-niño-and-la-niña-frequently-asked-questions Here's a good link to take a look at El Niño impacts: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climategovs-most-requested-el-niño-and-la-niña-images One should keep in mind, other variables can interact with El Niño producing different outcomes. For example, extreme Atlantic blocking during a strong El Niño during winter 2009-10 led to a colder than normal winter overall with very high seasonal snowfall.

Beyond two weeks, they typically don't fare better than climatology.

For the second time this month, the temperature fell to 20° in New York City. Tonight, readings approach and possibly fall just below 20° in Central Park. Following another chilly day tomorrow, warmer conditions will likely develop. Somewhat colder air could return during the closing days of January, but the risk that January could end on a mild note has increased. A mild finish to a very warm January does not mean that February will likely be warmer than normal. The coefficient of determination for New York City between the January and February temperatures is just 0.07. Colder air could return during or just after the first week in February. In addition, so long as the Arctic Oscillation remains strongly positive, the risk of widespread significant snow (6" or greater) from Washington, DC to Boston remains low. Since 1950, there were 11 storms that brought 6" or more snow to 2 or more of the following cities: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Just 1 storm occurred when the AO was +1.000 or above. Therefore, through most of the remainder of January, the greatest risk of moderate or significant snowfall would likely exist for central and upstate New York and central and northern New England. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around January 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates) ENSO R1+2 < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates) ENSO R1+2 > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was +2.93 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.687. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 28. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 19, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.646 (RMM). The January 18-adjusted amplitude was 2.909. The MJO had recently spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.0° in New York City. The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased to just over 40%.

Thanks for sharing this interesting research.

Thanks for the kind words. I hope you get the chance to photograph the methane bubbles at some point in the future.

After a morning low temperature of 20°, the temperature remained mainly in the 20s this afternoon before topping out at 31°. Some photos of ice are below:

This morning, the temperature sank to 20° in Central Park. January has yet to see a temperature in the teens. Tonight could be another opportunity for the temperature to push toward the teens in Central Park. Meanwhile, if one looked at the latest teleconnections forecast, the AO is forecast to remain positive to strongly positive through the next two weeks. Nothing has changed there. To date, the AO has averaged +1.464 during meteorological winter. Just to average 0.000, it would have to average -1.867 every day starting tomorrow through February 29. At the same time, the PNA is forecast to "flatline" (perhaps a fitting symbol of Social Media's thinking that Winter 2019-2020 has flatlined, the boredom that has swept online weather communities waiting for winter to reassert itself, or depression from Europe's non-winter to date). Such highly stable PNA regimes have occurred before. One such regime occurred during January 8 through January 24, 1985. During that 17-day period, the PNA averaged +0.930. The standard deviation was 0.057. The lowest PNA figure was +0.852 on January 14. The highest was +1.011 on January 16.

The following are the statistics for NYC's 6" or greater snowstorms (1950-2019): 1/1-31: 20% PNA- 2/1-14: 39% PNA- 2/15-29: 45% PNA- 3/1-15: 57% PNA-

In the wake of yesterday's snowfall, another shot of cold air has moved into the region. However, its stay will likely be short-lived. Warmer conditions will likely develop during the middle of the week. Somewhat colder air could return during the closing days of January, but the risk that January could end on a mild note has increased. A mild finish would represent a big change from the previous scenario where Pacific-driven changes would lead to the development of a colder pattern to continue into the start of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +0.24 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.489. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 27. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 18, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.913 (RMM). The January 17-adjusted amplitude was 3.178. The MJO had spent 9 consecutive days at an amplitude of 3.000 or above. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period as a whole would be colder than normal overall. However, uncertainty about the extended range has increased and a warmer than normal outcome now appears more likely than not (perhaps something closer to the January 1993 outcome even as the week 3-4 outcome will be colder than the week 1-2 period). A very warm first and second half of January does not necessarily mean that February will be warmer than normal. There were five such cases following a January 1-15 mean temperature of 40.0° or above. 1932 and 1998 were warmer than normal in February. 2006 was near normal. 1937 and 1950 were colder than normal. Overall, for New York City, the coefficient of determination between the January and February temperature is just 0.07 (1869-2019). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 99% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 38.0° in New York City. The probability that January 2020 will finish with among the 10 highest January average temperatures on record has increased.

To say that New York City and Philadelphia are digging out of their biggest snowstorm of the winter so far would be somewhat of an exaggeration, but not a complete exaggeration. Yesterday's snowfall of 2.1" in Central Park and 0.2" in Philadelphia are both cities' largest snowfall of winter 2019-20. It has been a bleak winter in terms of snowfall across much of the Middle Atlantic region. To add insult to injury, the pattern evolution has become less favorable for meaningful snow through the remainder of January. Even the previously bullish CFSv2 weeklies have now delayed the onset of a cold pattern beyond the first week of February. Should New York City finish January with less than 6.0" total snowfall for the season, winter 2019-20 will join 34 previous cases. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the season during those prior cases was 13.5" and the median was 10.6". The most was 43.0" during winter 1895-96 (30.5" in March). The least was 0.0" in winter 2001-02. In 11 (32%) cases, New York City received 15.0" or more snow during the remainder of winter. In 16 (47%) cases, New York City received less than 10.0" snow for the remainder of winter. In addition, the temperature has yet to fall below 20° this month in Central Park. New York City's minimum January temperature was 20° or above in seven prior years, most recently 2002. Five of those cases went on to record much below normal snowfall in February. Two (1949 and 1993) had somewhat above normal February snowfall (10.7" in both cases). Still, things could be worse. Instead of infrequent but picturesque light snowfalls, the region could be experiencing the non-winter that has gripped Europe throughout the season. Today, the thermometer is again flirting with record high temperatures in parts of Estonia, Finland, and Russia.

25 degrees in January 1937.

According to the PNS, that measurement was taken at 7 pm. More snow had fallen since that time at BDR. Unfortunately, the snow is about to come to an end there.

I'm happy to see that Long Island got into some of the accumulating snow. My sister had 1.5" in Suffolk County. Others on the the North Shore had more.

037 NOUS41 KOKX 190102 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-191302- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 802 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 8 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/nyc ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Greenwich 3.0 736 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Weston 2.8 612 PM 1/18 Broadcast Media Bridgeport Airport 2.5 700 PM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... Seymour 2.0 709 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Guilford 2.0 623 PM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...New London County... Ledyard Center 0.8 500 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Ridgewood 2.3 700 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 2.2 713 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Westwood 0.8 315 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... Cedar Grove 2.2 715 PM 1/18 Public ...Hudson County... Hoboken 1.8 700 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Harrison 1.0 415 PM 1/18 Co-Op Observer ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.8 700 PM 1/18 FAA Observer NEW YORK ...Bronx County... 1 NE Riverdale 2.5 745 PM 1/18 CoCoRaHS Eastchester 0.8 400 PM 1/18 NYC Dept of Sanitation ...Kings County... Adelphi 2.0 700 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Brooklyn 2.0 400 PM 1/18 NYC OEM CERT Midwood 1.6 615 PM 1/18 News Media ...Nassau County... Wantagh 2.6 730 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Franklin Square 2.5 609 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter New Hyde Park 2.5 714 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter East Meadow 2.4 650 PM 1/18 Public East Williston 2.3 530 PM 1/18 Public Locust Valley 2.0 504 PM 1/18 Broadcast Media Merrick 2.0 700 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Farmingdale 1.2 400 PM 1/18 NWS Employee ...New York County... Central Park 2.1 700 PM 1/18 Park/Forest Srvc Inwood 0.8 400 PM 1/18 NYC Dept of Sanitation ...Orange County... Gardnertown 4.0 756 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter West Point 2.3 615 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Monroe 2.0 535 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Hamptonburgh 2.0 428 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Putnam County... Putnam Valley 1.9 535 PM 1/18 News Media ...Queens County... Whitestone 2.6 730 PM 1/18 Public Fresh Meadows 2.5 704 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter NYC/LaGuardia Airpor 1.9 700 PM 1/18 FAA Observer Elmhurst 1.8 720 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter NYC/JFK Airport 1.6 700 PM 1/18 FAA Observer Rego Park 1.5 625 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Rockland County... New City 2.8 739 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Stony Point 2.5 700 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Suffolk County... Wheatley Heights 3.5 755 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Commack 2.9 650 PM 1/18 Public Upton 2.0 700 PM 1/18 NWS Office Islip Airport 1.9 700 PM 1/18 FAA Observer Riverhead 1.9 700 PM 1/18 NWS Employee Patchogue 1.5 710 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter Sayville 1.5 632 PM 1/18 NWS Employee Cedar Beach 1.0 413 PM 1/18 Trained Spotter ...Westchester County... Armonk 2.7 735 PM 1/18 Public &&

Central Park's latest and probably final measurement is 2.1".

A fast-moving storm brought accumulating snow, sleet, and later rain to parts of the region. As of 4 pm, snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.6" Bridgeport: 1.0" Islip: 1.0" New York City: 1.3" Newark: 0.8" Philadelphia: Trace A second round of snow moved into the area and continued into the early part of the evening leading to additional accumulations. Overnight and tomorrow, the system will pull away from the region, leading to clearing skies. In its wake, another shot of cold air will follow. However, the cold will likely be short-lived. Warmer conditions will likely develop during the middle of next week. Cold could return during the closing days of January, but the risk that January could end on a mild note has increased, particularly on the EPS. A mild finish would represent a big change from the previous scenario where Pacific-driven changes would lead to the development of a colder pattern to continue into the start of February. Meanwhile, in Europe where winter has largely been absent, no late-month changes are in order. The warmth appears poised to roll on through the end of the month and into the start February. More record high temperatures could be challenged or broken there during the last 10 days of January. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -8.62 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.380. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 26. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 17, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 3.184 (RMM). The January 16-adjusted amplitude was 3.171. This was the 9th consecutive day during which the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above. This is the longest such stretch since January 27-February 11, 2018 when the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 16 consecutive days. There have been only 8 cases where the MJO had an amplitude of 3.000 or above for 7 or more consecutive days. The shortest period from the start of that stretch that saw the MJO's amplitude fall below 1.000 was 20 days. The mean period was 36 days. The longest period was 55 days. Based on this historic experience, the MJO likely won't reach low amplitude until near or after the end of January. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were three January cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period as a whole would be colder than normal overall. However, uncertainty about the extended range has increased and a warmer than normal outcome now appears more likely than not (perhaps something closer to the January 1993 outcome even as the week 3-4 outcome will be colder than the week 1-2 period). A very warm first and second half of January does not necessarily mean that February will be warmer than normal. There were five such cases following a January 1-15 mean temperature of 40.0° or above. 1932 and 1998 were warmer than normal in February. 2006 was near normal. 1937 and 1950 were colder than normal. Overall, for New York City, the coefficient of determination between the January and February temperature is just 0.07 (1869-2019). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 98% probability of a warmer than normal January. The monthly mean temperature could finish near 37.5° in New York City.

I have 2.3" in Larchmont, NY as of a few minutes before 7 pm. Fairly large flakes are still falling, but the changeover is likely approaching.