donsutherland1

Rate of warming in a geological scale. Even as cyclical fluctuations occur, the climate record is unambiguous: the 2010s were warmer than the 2000s, the 2000s were warmer than the 1990s, etc. That the climate denial movement would be comprised of a larger share of people who hold sympathetic views toward that movement's positions is not "ageism." The notion that it would be comprised of a disproportionate share of people who recognize AGW would be far-fetched. Based multiple surveys, and I provided one of the more recent polls, the climate denial movement would be expected to be largely male and older. Even if warming is held to somewhere close to 2°C, there will be some significant adverse impacts. One need not have the worst-case warming scenario to see materially adverse consequences/costs. As for nuclear power, I support it. I realize some others don't, but at least for now, it is among the practical alternatives available. China, India, etc., are experiencing large increases in fossil fuel emissions. That's an issue that needs to be addressed. Through diplomacy, trade, technology-sharing, etc., there's a lot that can probably be done to change their fossil fuel trajectories while allowing their economies to continue to develop. Indeed, the realities of pollution are already making it imperative that they begin to address the causes of that pollution, so opportunities for engagement exist.

ENSO is cyclical. The warming has a cyclical component (as internal variability continues to occur within the context of increased greenhouse gas forcing), but global temperatures continue to increase. They do not return to pre El Niño levels each time an El Niño event ends. That long-term rise in temperatures is found in all the major datasets (Berkeley, GISS, HadCrut, NOAA, etc.).

I'm merely citing polling. There is a clear generational difference involved. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/do-younger-generations-care-more-about-global-warming/ "Unsustainable" refers to an approach that excludes a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. That approach is unsustainable, because it will lead to more warming and related consequences. Goals aimed at continuing emissions on a stable or rising trajectory are "backward" given the enormous long-term costs involved. Future generations will be confronted by those costs.

On a geological scale, the rate of warming is virtually without precedent.

Peer review is an assessment of a paper by relevant experts in the field of study. That something has been peer reviewed does not mean that it is beyond question. Subsequent peer reviewed work can support or undermine existing or past peer reviewed work. That's how science and scientific understanding advance. Your second point turns what's happening on its head. The climate change denial movement (to be distinguished from skeptics who raise questions about residual uncertainties e.g., feedbacks associated with ongoing climate change), for lack of a better name, has demonstrated little interest in science, evidence, or truth. It outright rejects the conclusions of the overwhelming body of scientific evidence that underpins the scientific understanding of the anthropogenic basis of ongoing global warming. It has no credible alternative explanations for this warming, especially as global temperatures have decoupled decisively from natural forcings (solar, volcanic, etc.). Therefore, it is unwilling and unable to engage in the field of science or bother with peer review. Lacking scientific explanations, it is seeking to discredit scientific understanding by attacking climate scientists, their integrity, and climate data. It is a loud but shrinking movement that relies on disinformation and deception. It is the 21st century version of the 1960s era tobacco movement. It is intellectually, scientifically, and, in the case of those attacking the female climate scientists and activists, ethically bankrupt. Its shrinking aging ranks understand that once the public understands climate change and its causes, the public will back policies aimed at addressing climate change. Lacking confidence in the future and humanity's ability to make big changes--changes on the scale that have occurred before e.g., the Manhattan Project--it is tenaciously trying to imprison the world in an unsustainable status quo. It is shifting the burden of the costs of its backward policy goals onto the future generations who will have to suffer through the consequences of those policies (burdens this aging movement's members will never have to live with). This is its last gasp. It knows and fears that public understanding will lead to public consensus and, in turn, public consensus will lead to necessary and appropriate policy changes to address climate change.

Two quick things: 1. I posted a link to a peer-reviewed paper on the topic in question. 2. The "believer-unbeliever" issue concerns an article of faith. One either believes or one doesn't. The matter involved cannot be tested empirically e.g., matters of religion. Climate change denial is not a matter of 'untestable' faith. It is a matter of deliberate rejection of the conclusions derived from an overwhelming body of scientific evidence in the absence of a similar body of credible research behind an alternative explanation.

Tomorrow will remain unseasonably mild. However, colder air will arrive late Thursday night or Friday. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +12.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.263. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 4, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 24, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.850 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.985. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 93% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Three (33%) occurred in 2010 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

Thanks for sharing this information. Cook has done a lot of good work in trying to combat climate change denial. Hopefully, this book will do well in helping address what remains a real problem.

Previously, it was noted in this thread that the climate change denial movement is engaging in misogynistic attacks on female scientists and prominent female activists such as Greta Thunberg. The latest such attack through imagery was carried out by Heartland's Anthony Watts/WUWT. On his Twitter stream, he posted a picture of Heartland's new 19-year-old female recruit juxtaposed with a highly unflattering photo of Ms. Thunberg. Back in August, The New Republic ran a piece on this topic: https://newrepublic.com/article/154879/misogyny-climate-deniers There is also peer-reviewed literature on the topic: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/18902138.2014.908627?journalCode=rnor20 Mr. Watts/WUWT is just the latest denier to engage in such reprehensible conduct. Almost certainly, he won't be the last. As the increasingly discredited anti-scientific climate change denial movement and its aging ranks go through its death throes in the face of mounting and unequivocal scientific evidence and growing public understanding of climate change, one can expect even nastier tactics. Watts should do the decent thing and retract the tweet.

Is this the article to which you were referring? https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/02/19/polar-vortex-is-approaching-record-strength-thats-not-scary-thing/

Morning thoughts... 1. The CFSv2 continues its evolution toward a warmer outlook for March as it moves deeper into its skillful range. 2. As of 8 am, Atlanta has received 18.59" precipitation this year. Only 1883 (19.04") and 1936 (18.80") had more through February 25. Atlanta's trace of snow this winter also exceeds last winter's figure of 0.0". 3. Over the next 72 hours, Caribou will reach and then exceed 100" seasonal snowfall for the 4th consecutive winter. 4. With a 51° high temperature earlier today, New York City remains on track for its 3rd February in the last 4 years with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will remain unseasonably mild, though nowhere near as warm as today was. Afterward, cooler air will arrive. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around February 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.25 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.667. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 3, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely diminish during the first week of March. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.986 (RMM). The February 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.818. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 85% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 40.0°. Since 1869, New York City has had nine prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above in February. Seven (78%) of those cases occurred in 1990 or later and four (44%) occurred in 2000 or later. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

It's unfortunate if the choice is to leave things as it is. I ran a regression analysis for Jamaica Plain (JP) and Boston's January-February average temperature (1963-2017, excluding 2004-08 where no Jamaica Plain data is available). The resulting equation for Boston's January-February mean temperature was (0.923*JP)+4.129. The coefficient of determination was 0.936. The mean error during the 1963-2017 period was 0.6° (same as the median error). The minimum error was 0.0°. The maximum error was 1.9° in 1965. Based on where things currently stand, the 2020 error would be 2.1°. As noted above, should the choice be made to leave the ASOS where it is, that outcome will undermine the integrity of Boston's climate record. It would amount to a bad scientific decision. Finally, Jamaica Plain is on track for its 3rd warmest January-February period (34.0° through 2/23 vs. 34.9° for January-February 2002).

As of 1 pm, the high temperature in Boston was 63°. That is the warmest temperature this February. In addition, January-February 2020 remains on track for a two-month average temperature of 37.6°. That would easily surpass the 36.5° recorded in 2002 for the warmest January-February on record.

At 1 pm, the temperature was 61° in Central Park. That ties the 61° recorded on February 4 as the warmest reading this month.

Morning thoughts... 1. Another mild day is in store. At 10 am, temperatures included: Allentown: 45°; Baltimore: 47°; Boston: 52°; Bridgeport: 44°; Danbury: 49°; Islip: 45°; New York City: 50°; Newark: 49°; Philadelphia: 45°; Poughkeepsie: 47°; Washington, DC: 46°; Westhampton: 49°; and, White Plains: 44°. Temperatures should top out well in the 50s, even in areas that saw a thick frost and minimum temperatures in the lower and middle 20s this morning. 2. The pattern remains hostile for moderate (4" or greater) or significant (6" or greater) snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. 3. January-February 2020 is on track to become 7th January-February case with a mean temperature of 39.0° or above in New York City and the 11th such case for Philadelphia. At Boston, 2020 is likely to surpass January-February 2002 as the warmest January-February period on record. Currently, Boston is on track for a two-month mean temperature of 37.5°-37.7°. The existing January-February record is 36.5°, which was established in January-February 2002. 4. The CFSv2 has continued its evolution toward a warmer March forecast in the East.

Likely below to much below normal snowfall.

Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°. Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +5.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

At 10 am, the temperature was 45° in White Plains after a morning low of 24°. In nearby Rye, daffodils were now blooming in spots.

Morning thoughts... 1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°. 2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°. 3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong. 4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region. The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

Yes. It does favor a wetter spring.

I agree. Considering the exceptionally strong polar vortex and the reality that its impact on the pattern will likely linger even after it weakens, the kind of extreme cold that had periodically shown up on the GFS or the large-scale cold anomalies for March/spring on earlier CFSv2 runs are likely far-fetched. The GEFS and GFS both have pronounced cold biases, as well. Finally, it increasingly appears that snowfall prospects will be limited even after February if historic experience is representative. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall.

At this point in time, the base case is a warmer than normal March in such cities as Baltimore, Boston, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Today was also the 5th day during February where the AO was +5.000 or above. Only 1989 (5 days) and 1990 (4 days) had at least 4 such days. All of this suggests that the March hemispheric pattern could be somewhat similar in the means to the February one. That would imply a warmer than normal March in the region. Further, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Finally, the most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

I just looked at the January 17-31 anomalies for the Central and Western U.S. It seems that the climate maps are wrong. They don't reflect the "brutal Arctic air" that was supposed to engulf practically all of Canada (warm anomalies, too!) before plunging into the United States. At second glance, early blooms are reported in many parts of the U.S. The promised cold never materialized. And that outcome is consistent with what one is seeing on a global scale more and more often with a warming climate.

Milder air returned to the region after a cool start. At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 50° during the late afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer tomorrow. As a result, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns. Winter 2019-2020 is the 12th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 11 prior cases was 8.2" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 64% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1928-29 with 13.8" seasonal snowfall. Winter 2019-2020 is the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 22. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was +6.10 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.187. That surpassed the previous daily record of +4.590 from 2008. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 1, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February. On February 21, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.670 (RMM). The February 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.082. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 75% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.