donsutherland1

In the wake of the cold front responsible for today's rain and falling temperatures, a fair but chilly weekend is in store. However, temperatures will likely return to normal and then above normal conditions early next week. This warmth will likely persist through the remainder of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -6.13. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.378. On October 15 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.779 (RMM). The October 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.350. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Moreover, among the former pool, both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Finally, the NOAA's annual winter outlook can be found here: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

1.26”.

Let’s hope so. The winter could be revealing.

From Philadelphia to New York City and much of Long Island 0.50"-1.50". Eastern New England and perhaps eastern Suffolk County, 1.00"-2.00" with some locally higher amounts.

Morning thoughts... At 8 am, rain associated with developing low pressure along a slow moving cold front extended northward into southeastern Pennsylvania and extreme southern New Jersey. That slow-moving front will move across the region today and tonight. Periods of rain will develop as the day progresses. The temperature will fall from present levels once the rain arrives. Afterward, temperatures will likely be confined to the 50s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region from 8 am onward include: New York City (Central Park): 62° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 60° A mainly fair but cool weekend is in store. Warmer temperatures should return early next week.

A slow-moving cold front will move across the region tomorrow and tomorrow night. At the same time, low pressure will develop and move northward along that front. As a result, tomorrow will be breezy, with periods of rain, and noticeably cooler temperatures. A general 0.50"-1.50" rain, with lighter amounts from New York City and westward and higher amounts over eastern New England is likely. A few parts of northern New England and southern Quebec could pick up 2" or more precipitation. In the wake of the cold front, a chilly weekend is in store. However, temperatures will likely return to normal and above normal conditions early next week. This warmth will likely persist through the remainder of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -7.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. On October 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.346 (RMM). The October 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.986. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5°. Finally, the NOAA released its annual winter outlook, which can be found here: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

Morning thoughts... Today will be unseasonably warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 75° A system could bring some rain tomorrow followed by a brief shot of noticeably cooler air.

September had a global monthly anomaly of +1.00 degrees C on the GISS dataset. That smashed the record warm September monthly anomaly of +0.93 degrees C, which was set just last year.

Phoenix Sets New Annual Record for 100° Days Today, the temperature rose to 100° at Phoenix, making today the the 144th time this year that the temperature has risen to at least 100°. In addition to tying the daily record of 100° set in 1973 and tied in 2010 and 2015, that established a new record for most days with high temperatures of 100° or higher during a calendar year. Since 1896, Phoenix has had only 7 years during which the temperature reached 100° or above on 120 or more days. Table 1: Most 100° or Above Days during a Calendar Year However, on account of anthropogenic climate change and, to a lesser extent, urbanization, the number of annual 100° days has been increasing. Table 2: 30-Year Moving Average of 100° or Above Days Through October 14, the monthly counts for 100° days are: April: 5 days May: 16 days June: 26 days July: 30 days August: 31 days September: 25 days October: 11 days Total: 144 days Earliest 100° temperature: April 26, 2020 102° Highest temperature: 118°, July 30, 2020 Table 3: Progression of the Records for 100°+, 105°+, 110°+, and 115°+ Days Of those 100° or above temperatures, 27 either tied or broke daily records: 12 set new daily records and 15 tied daily records. Among those records, were August-tying and October-tying monthly records. Table 4: 100° or Above Temperatures that Tied or Set Daily Records:

Temperatures rose into the middle and upper 60s and even lower 70s in parts of the region today under bright sunshine. Tomorrow will be a little warmer with temperatures rising into the lower 70s across a large part of the region. Out west, Phoenix recorded its 144th day on which the temperature rose to 100° or above. That surpassed the previous annual record of 143 days, which was set in 1989. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a brief period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. However, milder conditions will return shortly afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was -2.26. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.301. On October 13 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.987 (RMM). The October 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.911. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

Phoenix has now reached 100 degrees for a record 144th day. In addition, today’s 100 degree reading ties the daily record high set in 1973 and tied in 2010 and 2015.

I suspect that as climate change progresses, insurers will increasingly drop coverage in high-risk areas and the case for federal support to cover damages in those areas will be questioned. Some form of limited "buy outs" might be provided as an alternative to such support.

Here's the PNS (no wind data was available): 294 NOUS41 KOKX 141246 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-150046- Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 846 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2020 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 72 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/nyc ********************STORM TOTAL RAINFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS RAINFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... 1 W Shelton 1.55 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 W Monroe 1.52 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Westport 1.38 818 AM 10/14 CWOP Shelton 1.33 145 AM 10/14 CWOP Monroe 1.26 151 PM 10/13 CWOP 2 ENE Darien 1.18 750 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE Trumbull 1.14 815 AM 10/14 AWS 1 S Trumbull 1.06 515 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Norwalk 1.04 753 PM 10/13 CWOP 5 SE Newtown 1.00 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ...Middlesex County... 1 N Higganum 1.93 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Higganum 1.77 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Durham 1.76 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 WNW Chester Center 1.44 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 N East Hampton 1.43 500 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Durham 1.28 757 PM 10/13 CWOP 4 N Clinton 1.28 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 W Durham 1.19 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 W Durham 1.07 815 AM 10/14 AWS ...New Haven County... 2 ENE Prospect 3.11 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SW Prospect 2.63 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW Wallingford Ce 2.12 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 W Cheshire 2.05 738 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Meriden Airport 1.81 741 PM 10/13 ASOS 1 SW Northford 1.70 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Cheshire 1.62 755 PM 10/13 CWOP 2 NE Seymour 1.60 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Waterbury Airport 1.57 651 PM 10/13 AWOS 1 SSW Waterbury 1.52 745 PM 10/13 AWS Oxford 1.51 730 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 N Wallingford Cent 1.51 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 NNW New Haven 1.48 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Hamden 1.38 754 PM 10/13 CWOP Wallingford 1.36 715 PM 10/13 CWOP Bethany 1.29 817 AM 10/14 CWOP New Haven 1.24 800 PM 10/13 AWS 1 WSW New Haven 1.23 800 PM 10/13 AWS Branford 1.21 735 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 W West Haven 1.06 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS New Haven 1.04 815 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 WNW Waterbury 1.00 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ...New London County... 5 SE Norwich 1.35 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 NW Mystic 1.31 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 3 NNE Norwich 1.23 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 W Mystic 1.19 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SW East Lyme 1.14 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Norwich 1.12 700 AM 10/14 Co-Op Observer 1 NNW New London 1.11 730 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Lyme 1.06 817 AM 10/14 CWOP New London 1.05 755 PM 10/13 AWS 2 SSE Pawcatuck 1.03 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 SE Norwich 1.02 150 AM 10/14 AWS 3 SSW Central Waterf 1.01 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Teterboro Airport 1.82 151 PM 10/13 ASOS New Milford 1.81 820 AM 10/14 AWS Little Ferry 1.70 825 AM 10/14 AWS WNW Bergenfield 1.65 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS WNW Palisades Park 1.56 900 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Hackensack 1.56 825 AM 10/14 AWS Lodi 1.48 730 AM 10/14 IFLOWS 1 SSE Oakland 1.46 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Leonia 1.46 825 AM 10/14 AWS 1 ESE Oakland 1.43 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Tenafly 1.37 811 AM 10/14 CWOP Tenafly 1.37 819 AM 10/14 URBANET 1 SE Fair Lawn 1.36 644 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Fair Lawn 1.28 825 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 NE Paramus 1.24 824 AM 10/14 AWS Hasbrouck Heights 1.22 824 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 W Tenafly 1.21 730 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Park Ridge 1.05 800 AM 10/14 IFLOWS 1 SSE Franklin Lakes 1.04 1200 PM 10/13 IFLOWS 1 W Ramsey 1.03 825 AM 10/14 AWS ...Essex County... 1 W Orange 1.78 820 AM 10/14 URBANET Newark 1.69 800 PM 10/13 AWS Orange Reservoir 1.56 715 AM 10/14 IFLOWS 1 N Montclair 1.52 530 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Montclair 1.44 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Maplewood 1.44 600 PM 10/13 IFLOWS Montclair 1.40 800 PM 10/13 AWS Bloomfield 1.34 819 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 SE Maplewood Twp 1.30 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Millburn 1.30 800 PM 10/13 AWS 1 NE West Caldwell T 1.15 900 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 2 W Millburn 1.08 715 AM 10/14 HADS 2 NNE Livingston Twp 1.08 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS ...Hudson County... Weehawken 1.31 825 AM 10/14 AWS Kearny 1.29 818 AM 10/14 CWOP Harrison 1.02 825 AM 10/14 AWS ...Passaic County... Passaic 1.76 816 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 WNW Little Falls T 1.39 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SSW Clifton 1.28 815 AM 10/14 AWS Ringwood 1.19 710 PM 10/13 RAWS 1 NE Clifton 1.11 825 AM 10/14 AWS 1 E West Paterson 1.04 700 AM 10/14 HADS ...Union County... 1 NNW Cranford Twp 1.99 355 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SE Westfield 1.55 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NE Westfield 1.48 645 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Roselle Park 1.20 755 PM 10/13 CWOP 2 NW Linden 1.07 750 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 ESE New Providence 1.06 730 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Newark Airport 1.05 151 PM 10/13 ASOS NEW YORK ...Bronx County... City Island 1.68 825 AM 10/14 AWS ...Kings County... 1 WSW Crown Heights 1.56 820 AM 10/14 AWS Sheepshead Bay 1.50 746 PM 10/13 CWOP 3 NW Brooklyn 1.33 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Brooklyn 1.14 810 AM 10/13 CWOP 2 SW Brooklyn 1.01 738 PM 10/12 CoCoRaHS ...Nassau County... Woodbury 1.81 822 AM 10/14 CWOP E Locust Valley 1.79 845 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 N Massapequa Park 1.78 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Lynbrook 1.63 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 ENE Hicksville 1.62 718 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Wantagh 1.62 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS ESE Wantagh 1.59 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS East Rockaway 1.57 756 AM 10/13 CWOP Oyster Bay 1.56 816 AM 10/14 CWOP Matinecock 1.56 825 AM 10/14 AWS Muttontown 1.56 825 AM 10/14 CWOP Levittown 1.52 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Syosset 1.51 825 AM 10/13 Co-Op Observer Levittown 1.47 815 AM 10/14 AWS Bellmore 1.31 825 AM 10/14 AWS Syosset 1.29 815 AM 10/14 CWOP Valley Stream 1.21 806 AM 10/13 CWOP Glen Head 1.20 825 AM 10/14 AWS Massapequa Park 1.19 816 AM 10/14 CWOP Merrick 1.11 815 AM 10/14 CWOP Carle Place 1.09 810 AM 10/13 CWOP Wantagh 1.01 809 AM 10/13 CWOP Rockville Centre 1.01 810 AM 10/13 AWS ...New York County... Washington Heights 1.89 815 AM 10/14 AWS Greenwich Village 1.43 755 PM 10/13 AWS New York 1.38 825 AM 10/14 AWS Central Park 1.31 751 AM 10/14 ASOS Midtown Manhattan 1.01 820 AM 10/14 AWS ...Orange County... 1 N Port Jervis 1.07 700 AM 10/13 Co-Op Observer Usma 1.05 155 AM 10/14 RAWS ...Queens County... NNW Howard Beach 1.93 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 5 SW Queens 1.65 830 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS NYC/JFK Airport 1.24 151 PM 10/13 ASOS NYC/La Guardia 1.23 651 PM 10/13 ASOS Bellerose 1.23 801 AM 10/13 CWOP Jackson Heights 1.22 821 AM 10/14 CWOP 3 WSW Saddle Rock 1.21 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ...Richmond County... 1 SE Staten Island 1.71 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Staten Island 1.30 746 PM 10/13 CWOP 5 SSE Staten Island 1.00 600 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS ...Suffolk County... 1 NE Remsenburg-Speo 2.21 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SE Patchogue 2.14 639 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Westhampton Airport 2.13 653 PM 10/13 ASOS 1 ESE Bay Shore 2.08 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS East Setauket 2.05 816 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 SW West Islip 2.04 730 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SSE Sayville 2.02 809 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 NNE Islip Terrace 1.99 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Eastport 1.94 1145 PM 10/13 RAWS 1 N Center Moriches 1.91 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS ENE Copiague 1.86 800 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS SE Sayville 1.81 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 2 WNW Setauket-East 1.78 630 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS 1 SW Centerport 1.74 800 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Shirley Airport 1.72 756 PM 10/13 ASOS 1 W Islip Terrace 1.72 900 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 1 SSW Nesconset 1.71 811 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Lake Ronkonkoma 1.71 816 AM 10/14 CWOP Shinnecock Hills 1.69 800 PM 10/13 AWS Cutchogue 1.62 748 PM 10/13 CWOP Islip Airport 1.60 756 AM 10/14 ASOS 1 NNW Brightwaters 1.58 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS North Babylon 1.58 822 AM 10/14 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 1.54 817 AM 10/14 CWOP Selden 1.52 806 AM 10/14 CWOP Sayville 1.51 151 PM 10/13 CWOP Eastport 1.51 758 AM 10/14 CWOP East Northport 1.51 1226 AM 10/13 CWOP 1 NE Centereach 1.51 600 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Fort Salonga 1.50 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Centerport 1.49 700 AM 10/14 Co-Op Observer 2 SE Medford 1.49 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Southold 1.48 755 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 SSW Commack 1.45 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Orient 1.44 754 PM 10/13 CWOP 1 WNW Wading River 1.43 755 PM 10/13 AWS 2 NNW Patchogue 1.43 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS West Babylon 1.42 819 AM 10/14 CWOP Hampton Bays 1.42 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Selden 1.37 825 AM 10/14 AWS SSW Port Jefferson S 1.36 1130 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS N. Babylon 1.34 820 AM 10/14 CWOP Farmingville 1.32 817 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 S Setauket-East Se 1.32 733 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Orient 1.31 746 PM 10/13 CWOP Northport 1.31 820 AM 10/14 CWOP West Islip 1.29 824 AM 10/14 CWOP 1 SSE Bayport 1.25 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Fort Salonga 1.20 825 AM 10/14 AWS 1 SSW Setauket-East 1.18 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Miller Place 1.17 755 PM 10/13 CWOP Melville 1.14 824 AM 10/14 CWOP 2 NNE Northport 1.14 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS 2 SSW Shelter Island 1.12 700 AM 10/13 CoCoRaHS Farmingdale Airport 1.11 753 AM 10/13 ASOS 1 NE Fishers Island 1.10 700 AM 10/14 CoCoRaHS Kings Park 1.07 817 AM 10/14 CWOP Montauk Highway 1.04 755 PM 10/13 AWS Stony Brook 1.04 804 AM 10/13 CWOP Greenlawn 1.04 823 AM 10/14 CWOP ...Westchester County... New Rochelle 2.01 815 AM 10/14 AWS Hastings-on-Hudson 1.17 825 AM 10/14 AWS Rye 1.05 824 AM 10/14 AWS &&

Morning thoughts... At 9 am, the sky was nearly cloud-free from North Carolina into New Hampshire and Vermont. Today will feature brilliant sunshine and warm temperatures. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s with some areas reaching or exceeding 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 70° Much of the rest of the week could feature warmer than normal temperatures. A system could bring some rain and a shot of colder air into the region toward the end of the week.

Marine Heatwaves also have an adverse impact on ocean ecosystems. One example: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/massive-marine-heat-wave-blob-unprecedented-seabird-die-off

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and warmer as the clouds associated with the remnants of Delta move out of the area. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a brief period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. However, milder conditions will return shortly afterward. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +10.31. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.137. On October 12 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.911 (RMM). The October 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.780. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

At 5 pm EDT (2 pm PDT), Phoenix had reached 100 degrees. That tied the record of 143 days on which the temperature reached 100 degrees or above, which was set in 1989.

It should be noted that for West Chester (2 NW), which includes data for most years from 1893 through 2016, summer 1900 was tied for 7th warmest (mean temperature: 75.0) and summer 1901 was tied for 15th warmest (mean temperature: 74.7). Summer 1988 was the warmest with a mean temperature of 76.7.

Morning thoughts... The remnants of Hurricane Delta will slowly move away from the region today. Clouds could break during the late afternoon or early evening, especially from near New York City and westward. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 61° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Much of the rest of the week could feature warmer than normal temperatures. A system could bring some rain and a shot of colder air into the region toward the end of the week.

For perspective, atmospheric CO2 over the past 10,000 years:

For the most part, rainfall from Hurricane Delta's remnants was below what had previously been modeled. Through 8 pm, storm total rainfall amounts included: Atlantic City: 2.11" Baltimore: 1.32" Bridgeport:0.18" Islip: 0.94" New York City: 0.80" Newark: 0.71" Philadelphia: 0.80" Poughkeepsie: 0.25" Washington, DC: 1.50" Additional light rain and showers will depart tomorrow. In response to a return of sunshine, temperatures will rebound well into the 60s. Generally above normal temperatures will prevail through mid-month. By mid-month, New York City will likely have an October 1-15 mean temperature above 60° and the region will likely see temperatures running an overall 1°-3° above normal. Afterward, a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures could develop. The potential exists for a fairly sharp shot of cold just after mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail into at least the start of winter. The SOI was +11.28. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.107. On October 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.781 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.685. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. In addition, from the larger pool of La Niña winters following El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Three cases saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for less than 20 days: 1995-96: 12 days, 2007-08: 6 days, and 2010-11: 6 days. Both 1995-96 and 2010-11 featured a predominantly negative AO. The latest ensemble guidance favors October 2020 falling into the former pool. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3°.

Lengthening growing seasons:

Two photos from late this morning from the rain and breezes associated with the remnants of Hurricane Delta:

Remnants of Delta:

New research published by the National Bureau of Economics (NBER) indicated that rising sea levels are beginning to hinder home sales in vulnerable coastal regions. Put another way, markets are not denying the reality of climate change or one of its major adverse impacts. Abstract: In this paper, we explore dynamic changes in the capitalization of sea level rise (SLR) risk in housing and mortgage markets. Our results suggest a disconnect in coastal Florida real estate: From 2013-2018, home sales volumes in the most-SLR-exposed communities declined 16-20% relative to less-SLR-exposed areas, even as their sale prices grew in lockstep. Between 2018-2020, however, relative prices in these at-risk markets finally declined by roughly 5% from their peak. Lender behavior cannot reconcile these patterns, as we show that both all-cash and mortgage-financed purchases have similarly contracted, with little evidence of increases in loan denial or securitization. We propose a demand-side explanation for our findings where prospective buyers have become more pessimistic about climate change risk than prospective sellers. The lead-lag relationship between transaction volumes and prices in SLR-exposed markets is consistent with dynamics at the peak of prior real estate bubbles. https://www.nber.org/papers/w27930