donsutherland1

No worries. It can happen.

Temperatures will likely remain somewhat below normal through midweek. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop. Out West, an extreme heatwave is now under way in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Death Valley: 116° Phoenix: 113° Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 100°, 1918) Tucson: 112° (old record: 110°, 1924) Winslow, AZ: 106° (old record: 104°, 1918) The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 14-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 14: 115°, 1987 June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record) June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +4.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.639 today. On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.445 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.136 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

Las Vegas has received 0.85” precipitation year-to-date and 0.89” over the past 12 months.

On this, we strongly disagree. Dr. Mann’s revised thinking on what appeared to be a multi-decadal oscillation is a good illustration of how evidence informs scientific conclusions. It is not a defect that undermines climate science. It is testament that climate science is based on evidence and, when the evidence leads to revised conclusions, the conclusions give way to the evidence. They are constructed based on the evidence, not in spite of it. That is a far cry from the approach taken by the climate change denial movement where conclusions are built to serve political or ideological ends that are often in direct contradiction of the evidence. Dr. Mann’s revised thinking does not, in any way, undermine the scientific understanding of ongoing climate change and its predominant cause. There is currently overwhelming scientific evidence for anthropogenic climate change. Empirical evidence includes warming surface (land and ocean) temperatures, increasing oceanic heat content, ice sheet mass loss, declining Arctic sea ice extent minima, increasing ocean acidification, and measured increases in greenhouse gas forcing. As expected from the Greenhouse Effect, the troposphere is warming while the stratosphere is cooling. Consistent with the burning of fossil fuels, which contain the lighter C12 isotope, atmospheric C13 has been falling relative to C12. On account of the dominant role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, temperature trends can no longer be explained by using only natural forcings. Temperature trends have decoupled from solar irradiance. Clear scientific understanding of climate change—what is happening (warming) and why it is happening (anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions)—now exists. That’s where the debate is finished if one reviews the scientific literature. Nuances and residual uncertainties remain. The existence of the AMO and its role provided one example. Uncertainties concern feedbacks, potential tipping points, ice sheet evolution, etc. They do not extend to the conclusion that the world is experiencing an ongoing warming event and that increasing greenhouse gas forcing (due to anthropogenic emissions that have created a persistent situation where total emissions > total uptake) is the predominant driver of that warming. The climate change denial movement has been pushing frames as a substitute for credible scientific work—after all, this anti-science movement possesses no credible alternative explanation for the ongoing warming, even as it bears the burden of proof, if it wants the scientific debate reopened. The most common frames being advanced by the climate change denial movement are targeted at undermining the science through fear, attacks on the science, and exaggeration of uncertainty. These frames include, “climate change is a myth or scare tactic perpetuated by environmentalists, bureaucrats, and political leaders”; “Mainstream climate research is ‘junk’ science”; and, “The scientific evidence for climate change is uncertain” (Dunlap and McCright, 2015).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 79° The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve. Out West, record-breaking heat will develop across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 13: Phoenix: 114°, 1936 (Forecast: 112° to 116°) Tucson: 110°, 1924 (Forecast: 111° to 113°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. Tucson set a daily record high temperature of 110° yesterday. The old record was 109°, which was set in 1924 and tied in 1933 and 1995.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ BIS _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 102 96 98 97 106 99 103 102 119 94

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and again somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Out West, an extreme heatwave is now developing in the Southwest, including Phoenix. Late this afternoon, the temperature reached 110° in Phoenix for the first time this year. Last year saw a record 53 such days (prior record: 33, 2011). The least 110° days on record was 0, which was set in 1911. The average number of such days per year is 20.3 (1991-20 normals), which was an increase of 2.3 days from the 1981-10 normals. The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936 June 14: 115°, 1987 June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 13: 87°, 2018 June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record) June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +1.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.086 today. On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.136 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.512 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 73° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 77° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s. Out West, record-breaking heat will develop in Phoenix. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

How does giving a name to what once appeared to be an oscillation driven by internal variability, but is now suggested to be a forced outcome based on modeling that goes back a millennium in time, cause one to lose faith in a scientist researching it? That his research may verify earlier hypotheses should have no adverse impact on his credibility.

The weekend will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, despite a cooler weekend, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936 June 14: 115°, 1987 June 15: 115°, 1974 June 16: 115°, 1974 June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 Record high minimum temperatures: June 13: 87°, 2018 June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record) June 15: 88°, 1936 June 16: 86°, 1988 June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 It should also be noted that the earliest temperature above 115° occurred on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. A year later, the temperature again reached 118°. This record will likely be broken. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -3.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.460 today. On June 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.512 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.746 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

The climate models project that the Southwest will experience hotter and drier summers, leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Last year’s historic summer in Phoenix was a “throw-forward” summer that provided a glimpse of the future. The newly-released climate normals are consistent with the climate modeling. Data for select cities is below: Denver: Change in summer temperature: +0.6°F Change in summer precipitation: -0.29” Change in annual 90°F days: +6.8 Change in annual 100°F days: +0.4 Las Vegas: Change in summer temperature: +1.4°F Change in summer precipitation: -0.07” (from 0.81” to 0.74”) Change in annual 100°F days: +4.3 Change in annual 110°F days: +2.0 Phoenix: Change in summer temperature: +0.6°F Change in summer precipitation: -0.21” (from 2.07” to 1.86”) Change in annual 100°F days: +1.7 Change in annual 110°F days: +2.3

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Some locations could pick up showers, especially south of New York City. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 69° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s. Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period, which would tie or break daily records. The potential for even higher temperatures exists, as a 1 standard deviation increase from the modeled outcome would produce peak high temperatures around 118° at the height of the extreme heatwave. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail tomorrow into the upcoming weekend. However, some warming is likely on Sunday and Monday. Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal. Through 7 pm, the preliminary June 1-10 anomaly in New York City is 6.5° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +1.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.434 today. On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.871 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. With Phoenix likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

JFK's Numbers: Summer: Highest average maximum temperature: 85.5°, 2010 Highest average minimum temperature: 69.2°, 2016 Highest average mean temperature: 77.2°, 2010 Monthly: Average monthly maximum temperature: 89.0°, July 2010 Average monthly minimum temperature: 72.5°, July 2010 and August 2016 Average monthly mean temperature: 80.7°, July 2010 Annual: Most 90° high temperatures: 32, 2010 Most 80° low temperatures: 2, 1999 and 2016 All-Time: Highest maximum temperature: 104°, July 3, 1966 Highest minimum temperature: 82°, July 6, 1999 and August 14, 2016 Earliest 90° high temperature: 90°, April 12, 1977 Latest 90° high temperature: 90°, October 8, 2007

On this date this date in 2008, LaGuardia Airport reached 100°. That was the New York City area's earliest 100° temperature on record.

Shortly after sunrise this morning:

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places . Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 87° Philadelphia: 85° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and much cooler. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Under abundant sunshine, the temperature again rose to 90° or above in many parts of the region. For the first time this year, all three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC) reached 90° or above. The last time that occurred was August 27, 2020 when JFK reached 92°, LGA reached 94°, and NYC reached 90°. Last year, there were 10 days on which the temperature reached 90° at all three stations. Today's high temperatures included: Boston: 90° Hartford: 90° New York City-JFK: 91° New York City-LGA: 90° New York City-NYC: 90° Newark: 96° 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 9): Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 7 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 7 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 5 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 9 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 5 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 6 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Following the frontal passage this evening, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail into the upcoming weekend. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was June 25, 2017 when the thermometer reached 116°. There were five such days in June 2017. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days. Typically, there is a reduced likelihood of additional 115° or warmer days in the July-September period following years where June registered one or more such days (69% of cases had no such days in June-September vs. 56% of cases where June saw no such heat/averages: 0.4 per year in July-August following a June with 115° heat vs. 0.6 per year in July-August following a June without such heat). However, climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. All of the July-August cases with 115° heat following such cases in June occurred 1970 or later and 38% have occurred 2010 or later. One also finds additional evidence in statistical analysis. The coefficient of determination between June and July-August 115° heat is 0.001 (meaning that there is virtually no correlation). However, when time is introduced, the coefficient of determination increases to 0.148. This reflects the impact of a warming climate on the frequency of extreme heat. Considering the combination of ongoing warming and the ongoing drought, it is likely that Phoenix will see additional 115° heat during the summer even if the temperature reaches 115° or above in June. More immediately, the unseasonable heat that will develop this weekend will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. Based on the accumulated data and latest guidance, the June 1-10 anomaly will likely average 5.5° to 6.5° above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -0.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.259 today. On June 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.870 (RMM). The June 6-adjusted amplitude was 0.954 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

A recurring issue I have raised in the past: I have recently started tracking this problem and will post the average daily error (30-day average). There is a persistent disconnect between the guidance and the posted current day forecast number. I am not sure what the problem is. As noted previously, I don't think the NWS forecast is the issue. Today's AFD states: Ahead of the front a warm and humid airmass remains in place.While temperatures will be near 90 degrees once again with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70, widespread heat indices in the mid 90s are not expected. I suspect that there is an issue that results in an inaccurate display (used broadly) of the entered numbers e.g., a "90" might be entered but the website result is quite a bit lower.

While parts of the region could see another 90° day today before the heat breaks, it is perhaps an opportune time to look at the New York City area's summer (June-August) records. New York City area refers to the three New York City stations (JFK, LGA, and NYC). Summer 2020 was the hottest summer on record in the New York City area in terms of the seasonal mean temperature. The records are below: Highest average maximum temperature: 87.3°, 1966 (NYC) Highest average minimum temperature: 72.1°, 2020 (LGA) Highest average mean temperature: 79.5°, 2020 (LGA) Monthly: Average monthly maximum temperature: 90.6°, July 2020 (LGA) Average monthly minimum temperature: 75.2°, July 2020 (LGA) Average monthly mean temperature: 82.9°, July 2020 (LGA) Annual: Most 90° high temperatures: 48, 2010 (LGA) Most 80° low temperatures: 7, 1908 (NYC), 2002 (LGA), 2020 (LGA) All-Time: Highest maximum temperature: 107°, July 3, 1966 (LGA) Highest minimum temperature: 86°, July 5, 1999 (LGA), August 2, 2006 (LGA), July 19, 2013 (LGA)

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. A few places could reach or exceed 90° . Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers are possible. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was 2017 when there were five such days. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

I don’t agree. The major greenhouse gas polluters (https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15feb-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1499691240) want to pass the blame for their scope 3 emissions (the majority of their emissions). This is their effort to deflect attention from their responsibility so as to be able to continue to profit from products that impose huge and growing externalities on the public whom they try to blame.

Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some strong thunderstorms moved through the area during the late afternoon and early evening. More high temperature records were tied or broken across northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick today. Records included: Baie-Comeau, QC: 85° (old record: 73°, 2017) Caribou: 92° (old record: 87°, 1974 and 2017) Edmunston, NB: 87° (old record: 84°, 2014) Fredericton, NB: 92° (old record: 91°, 2008) Gaspé, QC: 88° (old record: 84°, 1979) La Tuque, QC: 91° (old record: 88°, 2011) Miramichi, NB: 93° (old record: 88°, 2017) Moncton, NB: 91° (old record: 87°, 1950) Quebec City: 87° (tied record set in 2008) Sept-Îles, QC: 75°/24.0°C (old record: 75°/23.9°C, 1974) St. Stephen, NB: 93° (old record: 90°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 89° (old record: 87°, 2011) Two daily rainfall records were set today. Rainfall through 8 pm included: Newark: 2.19" (old record: 0.92", 1947) White Plains: 1.55" (old record: 1.19", 1992) Tomorrow will be another hot day. Afterward, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.372 today. On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.961 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

Yes. Both set new records with lows of 76 yesterday.

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from a frontal passage.