donsutherland1

Cooler air continues to spill into the region. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow and Wednesday. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 95% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +22.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.594 today. On May 21 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.045 (RMM). The May 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.323 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 77° Cool weather will persist through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 73.8° Newark: 30-Year: 74.4°; 15-Year: 75.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.2°; 15-Year: 76.9°

Jacobobad, Pakistan.

At 6 pm, a line of thunderstorms stretched from near Washington, DC to Reading. That line was pushing eastward. North of there, there were scattered thunderstorms. As a result, parts of the region could see an evening thunderstorm as the cold front moves across the region. Behind the cold front, a much cooler air mass will overspread the region. During the middle of next week, high temperatures could struggle just to reach 70° in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +9.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.751 today. On May 20 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.321 (RMM). The May 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.304 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and hot. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 80s along the Connecticut shore to lower 90s in parts of New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 93° Philadelphia: 92° Noticeably cooler weather will return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.8°; 15-Year: 73.6° Newark: 30-Year: 74.2°; 15-Year: 75.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 76.6°

124 is the highest so far in the Northern Hemisphere.

Much of the region sizzled under near record to record heat. High temperatures included: Albany: 92° (tied record set in 1941) Atlantic City: 93° (tied record set in 1996) Baltimore: 95° Islip: 90° (tied record set in 1996) New York City-JFK: 87° New York City-LGA: 91° New York City-NYC: 90° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 95° (tied record set in 1934) Richmond: 95° (old record: 93°, 1934 and 1962) Scranton: 90° Sterling, VA: 92° (tied record set in 1996) Washington, DC: 92° Wilmington, DE: 95° (tied record set in 1996) Worcester: 88° (tied record set in 1975) New York City's first 80° or above temperature of the year was 90°. Only 1918, 1927, and 2010 saw 90° or above readings as Central Park's first 80° or above temperature. Records go back to 1869. Islip also saw its first 80° or above temperature of the year with a high of 90°. Only 1969 saw the first 80° temperature wind up as the first 90° or above temperature. Records go back to 1963. In Europe, Andujar, Spain recorded its second consecutive high of 107° in what is unprecedented May heat. The historic spring heat also continued in parts of India and Pakistan. Jacobabad reached 120° for the third consecutive day. Tomorrow will be another hot day. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could again see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Thunderstorms are possible late in the day and during the evening as a cold front moves across the region. Behind the cold front, a much cooler air mass will overspread the region. During the middle of next week, high temperatures could struggle just to reach 70° in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +6.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.427 today. On May 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The May 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.261 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal).

The temperature soared into the 90s in much of the NYC region. At the New York Botanical Garden, there was a wine festival and farmer’s market.

The issue usually becomes apparent around 2 pm during the summer and a little later during late May-early June.

Morning thoughts… Clouds and fog will give way to partly to mostly sunny skies. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s along the Connecticut shore to middle 90s in parts of New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 90° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 95° Tomorrow will be another hot day before a cold front brings noticeably cooler weather starting Monday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.3° Newark: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 74.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.7°; 15-Year: 76.4° Daily Records for May 21: Baltimore: 96°, 1934 Harrisburg: 95°, 1941 New York City-JFK: 90°, 1962 and 1996 New York City-LGA: 93°, 1996 New York City-NYC: 93°, 1996 Newark: 96°, 1996 Philadelphia: 95°, 1934 Washington, DC: 95°, 1934

Parts of the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s and 90s today. Temperatures included: Baltimore: 90° Norfolk: 94° Philadelphia: 87° Raleigh: 96° (old record: 94°, 1938) Richmond: 97° (old record: 96°, 1934) Washington, DC: 89° Wilmington, NC: 95° (old record: 94°, 2000) That heat will expand into the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow. Some additional showers and thundershowers are likely overnight as the warm front pushes across the region. Following the frontal passage, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +15.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.530 today. On May 18 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.281 (RMM). The May 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.264 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Central Park, at least, should make a run at 90. Whether it reaches it is a different matter. 70s would represent a more than 3 sigma modeling error from one day out.

Morning thoughts… Clouds and fog will give way to some sunshine. Late afternoon or overnight showers and thundershowers are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s along the Connecticut shore to upper 80s in southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 87° The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Many locations away from the water will see their first 90s of the year. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.4°; 15-Year: 73.1° Newark: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.4°; 15-Year: 76.1°

Some additional late-season snowfall information for Denver.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Temperatures will rise into the 70s throughout much of the region. Out West, Denver, which saw temperatures rise into the upper 80s today will see showers and rain turn to a heavy snowfall tomorrow night into Saturday. In the northern Middle Atlantic region, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +13.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.830 today. On May 17 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.279 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.440 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Rain will end this morning. The clouds will break from west to east this afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania will see temperatures top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 70° Philadelphia: 78° The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 72.1°; 15-Year: 72.9° Newark: 30-Year: 73.4°; 15-Year: 74.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.2°; 15-Year: 75.8°

Showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into early tomorrow. Clouds will break later tomorrow and readings will climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is in store for the weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. New York City and Newark could see the mercury rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +15.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.613 today. On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.440 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.686 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Clouds will increase during the afternoon or evening. Some showers and periods of rain are likely overnight into tomorrow. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 74° Philadelphia: 74° The weekend will likely see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.9°; 15-Year: 72.7° Newark: 30-Year: 73.1°; 15-Year: 74.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.9°; 15-Year: 75.6°

Slightly cooler weather will continue through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline where sea breezes occur may remain much cooler than interior sections. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +24.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today. On May 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.688 (RMM). The May 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.653 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 81° Tomorrow and Thursday will be somewhat cooler. The weekend could see the warmest temperatures so far this season in many parts of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.7°; 15-Year: 72.5° Newark: 30-Year: 72.8°; 15-Year: 73.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.6°; 15-Year: 75.3°

For a time, it will likely turn cooler. The month could end with above normal temperatures.

Following today's passage of a cold front, slightly cooler weather will follow for tomorrow through Thursday. Afterward, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend for parts of the region. Areas on the immediate coastline may remain much cooler than interior sections. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.03°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +20.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.267 today. On May 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.656 (RMM). The May 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.698 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.4° (0.2° above normal).

Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and warm. A cold front will bring strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon or evening to many parts of the region. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 81° Somewhat cooler air will follow the frontal passage for tomorrow through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.4°; 15-Year: 72.3° Newark: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 73.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.4°; 15-Year: 75.1°

Morning thoughts… Morning fog will give way to variably cloudy skies. It will be warmer. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 81° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. Strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms are likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.2°; 15-Year: 72.0° Newark: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 73.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 74.1°; 15-Year: 74.8°

Clouds broke in parts of the New York City area sending temperatures into the 70s. Islip reached 76°. A few showers overspread the region from south to north during the late afternoon and evening. Up north, temperatures rose into the 80s and even 90s. High temperatures included: Albany: 84° Bangor: 91° (old record: 87°, 1961) Boston: 86° (tied record set in 1879) Burlington: 88° (old record: 86°, 1961) Caribou: 82° (old record: 81°, 1961) ***4th consecutive record high*** Concord: 89° Hartford: 84° Manchester, NH: 91° (old record: 81°, 2004 and 2018) Montreal: 87° (old record: 85°, 2004) Portland: 84° (old record: 81°, 1961) Tomorrow will see more sunshine with readings rising into the middle and perhaps upper 70s. Monday will be very warm, but there will be the risk of strong thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. After a slight cooldown during the middle of next week, the warmest weather of the year so far is possible next weekend. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +19.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.432 today. On May 12 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.621 (RMM). The May 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.372 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal).