donsutherland1

Bridgeport: 93. Old record: 91, 1987 and 2013 Newark: 96 (ties record set in 1987) Islip: 92 (ties record set in 1987)

JFK has had a high of 94. That broke its daily record 92 from 1988.

JFK has tied its daily record of 92. That record was set in 1988.

20/9/5

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.3 0.7 0.8 -0.8 0.1 0.4 0.2 2.0 -0.3 104 100 101 100 99 105 100 118 92

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and hot. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the coastline to the middle 90s in interior sections. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 93° Newark: 97° Philadelphia: 97° Tomorrow be noticeably cooler in much of the region. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 75.2°; 15-Year: 75.5° Newark: 30-Year: 76.8°; 15-Year: 77.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.5°; 15-Year: 79.0°

Tomorrow will be a hot day with readings soaring into the 90s in much of the region. However, a backdoor cold front will break the warm spell in parts of the region afterward. As the cold front moves across Long Island, temperatures could plunge by 20°-30° in a matter of hours. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of the week. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer. The SOI was +31.12 today. That broke the daily record of +25.53 from 2014. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.897 today. On May 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.390 (RMM). The May 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.254 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 91° Tomorrow will likely see the highest temperatures so far this year in parts of the region. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 74.9°; 15-Year: 75.3° Newark: 30-Year: 76.5°; 15-Year: 77.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.2°; 15-Year: 78.7°

Much warmer air will move into the region for tomorrow and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Some parts of the region could see their highest temperatures so far on Tuesday. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week. The temperature reached 90° at Galveston, tying the daily record set in 1959. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +27.82 today. That surpassed the daily record of +26.91, which was set in 1994. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.164 today. On May 27 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.256 (RMM). The May 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.807 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

With bright sunshine and temperatures in the middle 70s, the New York Botanical Garden is nearing summer form.

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 84° Tomorrow will be fair and very warm. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 74.6°; 15-Year: 75.1° Newark: 30-Year: 76.2°; 15-Year: 76.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.5°

The odds increasingly favor a persistent La Niña. We’ll probably see a 3rd consecutive La Niña winter. By mid-summer, the guidance will be in a range where one can have good confidence in the forecast outcome.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and seasonably warm. Much warmer air will move into the region for Monday and Tuesday before another cold front breaks the short warm spell. Much above normal temperatures will likely persist from Philadelphia southward in the Middle Atlantic region through the middle of next week. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 82.7°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +13.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.360 today. On May 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.805 (RMM). The May 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.187 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

Some photos:

Some very small hail in Larchmont, NY.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region. Some locations could again approach or reach 80°. Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. Galveston saw the temperature reach 93° today. That broke the daily record of 90°, which was set in 1922. Galveston has now had 6 90° or above days this month. The old May record of 4 days was set in 2011. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied near 100% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +3.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today. On May 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.185 (RMM). The May 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.463 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.1° (0.9° above normal).

Those charts have issues, not just for NYC (which is often too hot). Galveston is typically shown 3-5 degrees too cool e.g., it shows GLS in the low 80s today when the high will probably be in the vicinity of 88-89.

Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. It will turn warmer. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s with a few lower 80s, especially in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 81° Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. It will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 74.1°; 15-Year: 74.6° Newark: 30-Year: 75.6°; 15-Year: 76.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.3°; 15-Year: 77.9°

This is becoming a more frequent occurrence. Galveston also smashed its December record.

Tomorrow and Saturday will be mainly cloudy with some showers and thundershowers. Temperatures will reach the middle or upper 70s across the region. Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 99% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.2° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +11.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.212 today. On May 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.463 (RMM). The May 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.760 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.9° (0.7° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and still cool for the season. A shower is possible during the evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 74° Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow. It will turn warmer. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 73.8°; 15-Year: 74.4° Newark: 30-Year: 75.3°; 15-Year: 76.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 77.7°

Tomorrow and Friday will be unsettled days with some showers and thundershowers, especially on Friday. Temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow and then warm up on Friday. Following a seasonably warm weekend, much warmer air will move into the region early next week. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 97% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.0° to 82.8°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +25.45 today. The old record was +19.32, which was set in 2018. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.735 today. On May 23 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.814 (RMM). The May 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.742 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny. It will be cool for the season. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 70° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 74° Cool weather will persist through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 73.6°; 15-Year: 74.2° Newark: 30-Year: 75.0°; 15-Year: 75.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.8°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cool day. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow. Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 97% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May. Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise. The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June. The SOI was +33.57 today. That smashed the daily record of +14.27 from 2011. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.824 today. On May 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.744 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.047 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

Morning thoughts… Today will become partly sunny. It will be unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 71° Philadelphia: 70° Cool weather will persist through Thursday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 73.3°; 15-Year: 74.0° Newark: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.5°; 15-Year: 77.1°