donsutherland1

I'm glad he's on his way to recovering. What a shock, especially at his age.

June 2026 finished with a mean temperature of 73.4° in New York City. That was 1.4° above normal (2.0° above the 1981-2010 baseline). July will start with a severe heatwave. The heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer with maximum temperatures peaking in the 100°-105° range. Some locally hotter temperatures are possible. Most of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas will see temperatures reach 100° or above during the height of the heatwave. Boston, Burlington, Philadelphia and Washington, DC could challenge their all-time records. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.37°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.196 today.

I recently posted about the issue here, as the trees will make it exceptionally difficult for Central Park to reach 100°. Last June, much of the region saw their hottest June temperatures on record, but not Central Park. In reality, based on the statistical relationships with JFK, LGA, and EWR, Central Park likely hit 100° on two days, including a June record 102°. I will run the numbers during the upcoming heatwave again. My guess is that those numbers will show 2 or perhaps even 3 100° days when the upcoming heatwave concludes. JFK's and LGA's average high temperature from 1996-2025 and 1991-2020 are well above their 1961-1990 average highs. In contrast, both sets of the more recent figures are cooler than their 1961-1990 figures for Central Park. As long-term climate figures are homogenized, the trees are a non-issue for 30-year and longer-term figures. Meanwhile, because daily data is not homogenized, daily records have been sacrificed. Even as this is the case, the news media still cites Central Park's figures as New York City's official data. In fact, during summer, Central Park's highs have become more a testament of the cooling power of trees than the City's actual readings.

Unfortunately, neither the Park nor NCEI are willing to address the issue. Long-term averages are homogenized to address such issues. Daily records are an afterthought.

"It's called 'summer'..."--CFACT policy analyst Meanwhile from Météo-France: The recent heatwave saw France record, on a national basis, three highest daily mean temperatures, four highest mean high temperatures, and four highest mean low temperatures on record. "Summer" doesn't describe this extraordinary climate change-driven heat. The reality from France: A warmer baseline climate makes hot patterns hotter. Key points from a recent World Weather Attribution rapid analysis: Across large parts of Western Europe, June is warming faster than any other month. In addition, daily maximum temperatures are warming faster than night time temperatures, though both are warming much faster than global warming. The hottest daily temperatures are warming at about triple the rate of global warming and night time temperatures at about twice the rate. Many capital cities are experiencing not only their hottest June 3-day period but also the hottest three-day period since 1950, according to the ERA5 dataset. However, due to global warming, these very high temperatures are now expected regularly during the summer months in many capitals. This means that a similar heatwave in June would have been about 3.5°C cooler during the day in 1976 and about 2°C cooler in 2003. The nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4°C cooler in June 1976 and about 1.3°C cooler in June 2003. This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed. Key Points: 1) The heat was record-setting, not typical summer warmth 2) Human induced climate change contributed to the extreme nature of the heat 3) Interest-driven policy analysts are poor sources of weather/climate information; they seek to advance their employers' interests and some even resort to pushing misleading information to undermine public knowledge e.g., the flippant dismissal of the heat as "summer."

Are you out of space? You may need to delete earlier photos.

Moonrise.

In the wake of Europe's record-setting June heatwave and the guidance suggesting that parts of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions could challenge July monthly and even all-time heat records, the climate change denial movement is desperately trying to frame the heat as ordinary summer heat. One example from a fossil fuel advocacy group's policy analyst in attacking a meteorologically sound post: In the past week, Belarus, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Poland, and Slovakia set all-time national heat records. Austria, France (with 292 cities setting all-time records), Switzerland, and the United Kingdom set June monthly records. But to the ignorant, that's just "summer." The latest guidance suggests that the July 1-4 period could see locations in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions challenge July monthly and even all-time records. But again to the ignorant, that's just "summer." And finally the ignorant policy analyst's claim that nationally-recognized meteorologist Jeff Berardelli should use the "correct terminology" instead of "heat dome," proves incorrect. It's the policy analyst who has no clue. From the AMS Glossary of Meteorology: Rather than making wild claims about subject matter with which he obviously is unfamiliar, he should brush up on the basics and put aside a belief system that is a repudiation of both science and reason. Arrogance and ignorance are a toxic combination for any profession. In any case, the extraordinary June heatwave is consistent with the warming global climate, including the rapid warming in Europe. No ranting, raving, or other forms of deflection or projection can erase what happened, much less undermine the science that is based on overwhelming and unequivocal evidence.

A warming trend is under way. The warmth will continue to build through the remainder of June before culminating in a severe heatwave to start July. The heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer with maximum temperatures peaking in the 100°-105° range. Some locally hotter temperatures are possible. Most of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas will see temperatures reach 100° or above during the height of the heatwave. Boston, Burlington, Philadelphia and Washington, DC could challenge their all-time records. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.37°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -13.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.326 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2 (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The latest estimates I have seen is 2.19C-2.26C (3.9F-4.1F): European land temperatures have increased even faster over the same period by 2.19 to 2.26°C, depending on the dataset used. https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/analysis/indicators/global-and-european-temperatures

The updated June monthly record for the UK during the most recent climate change-enhanced heatwave is 37.7C (99.9F). Key contextual point from World Weather Attribution: This June 2026 heatwave occurred under a circulation pattern broadly similar to historical analogues – Southerly Flow. However, a similar circulation pattern now produces significantly hotter temperatures than it did in the mid-20th century because the climate baseline has warmed...

As an extreme air mass is poised to set temperature records across the New York City Metro Area during July 1-3, it is again worth noting that the strong cooling effect of Central Park's overgrowth of trees will make it exceedingly difficult for Central Park to reach 100°. It is likely that JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and possibly Bridgeport, Islip, and White Plains could all reach 100°. Much of the region will see the heat peak at 100°-105°. Last June, the New York City area experienced its highest June monthly temperatures on record. JFK Airport topped out at 102° (old record: 99°, 1952, 1959, and 1964). LaGuardia Airport reached 101°, tying the mark set in 1952 and tied in 2017). Newark reached 103° (tying the record set in 2021). Bridgeport reached 97° (tying the record set in 2008). Islip topped out at 101° (demolishing the old mark of 96° from 1966 and 1994). White Plains reached 98° (tying the record set in 1952 and tied in 1953). A shaded Central Park reached just 99°. Based on a statistical regression equation (coefficient of determination: 0.941), for the 30-year period preceding the excessive tree growth (1966-1995), Central Park actually hit 100° on two days. Its peak temperature would have been 102° on June 24th, also setting a new monthly record (old record: 101°, 1934 and 1966). For good reason, homogenization is applied to long-term records to account for changes such as the tree growth that has been permitted to dampen Central Park's summer high temperatures. IMO, homogenization should be applied on a daily basis, given the persistent lack of interest in addressing the documented problem (as noted on NOAA's climate site inventory). How has tree growth affected Central Park? Even as average high temperatures during Summer (June, July, and August) have increased at JFK Airport and LaGuardia Airport during 1961-1990 to 1991-2020, they have decreased at Central Park. June Mean High Temperatures: July Mean High Temperatures: August Mean High Temperatures: Through June 28th, Central Park's mean June temperature is running 0.5° below that of JFK Airport, even as JFK is affected by the sea breeze. Only 2015 (0.03° margin) had a warmer mean June high at JFK airport. To date, Central Park's highest monthly temperature is 91°. Here's how it compares with the other sites in the New York City area: Bridgeport: 91°; Islip: 94°; JFK Airport: 96°; LaGuardia Airport: 98°; Newark: 97°; and, White Plains: 92°. Based on the statistical assessment, Central Park's monthly high is likely 97° (June 11-12). In terms of 90° or above days, Central Park stands at 2 days in June. Here's how that compares with the other sites in the New York City area: Bridgeport: 1 day; Islip: 2 days; JFK Airport: 2 days; LaGuardia Airport: 6 days; Newark: 7 days; and, White Plains: 2 days. The statistical estimate suggests 4-6 days are likely to have occurred this month.

Congratulations. I hope all goes well.

A warming trend has gotten underway. The warmth will continue to build through the remainder of June before culminating in a severe heatwave to start July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -11.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.126 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.2 (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The historic June 2026 heatwave finally began to release its grip on France. Nevertheless, a few locations set monthly and all-time records. Germany (41.7C) and Czechia (41.9C) also set all-time heat records. As a result of the heatwave, June 2026 accounts for the most all-time records for the month of June and 2026 accounts for the second most all-time records for any calendar year. The clustering of all-time records in recent years is consistent with a warming climate from fossil fuel-driven anthropogenic climate change.

With the temperature rising into the lower 80s, it was a great day to see some summer scenes at the New York Botanical Garden.

For reference:

It's probably overdone, but Central Park might make a run for 100 on at least one day. I think ISP, JFK, LGA, EWR will probably have one or more such days.

July 4th thread. Its numbers are unreal for NYC.

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. June will conclude with above normal temperatures. The guidance is increasingly suggesting the potential for extreme heat to open July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.3 (1.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It’s a metaphor, not literal description.

June 2026 in France and much of Europe isn't merely "hot." Hot is a beach day, lemonade, and open windows. This is different. Stoked by rising atmospheric greenhouse gases, the air is seemingly breathing fire in one's face. The shade is failing to offer much relief. Today, France saw additional all-time records. The Czech Republic, Denmark, and Germany set all-time national records.

The strong and strengthening PMM+ is noteworthy. It will likely have an influence on the upcoming seasons.

On that, I also agree. Summer 2026 is becoming much like Summer 2019 with wave after wave of intense heat in Europe.

The forecast heat dome is looking more and more impressive. The NBM shows a peak of 105° +/- 5° at Washington, DC. The all-time mark is 106°. This situation will merit watching.