donsutherland1

Tomorrow will be see clouds increase. The probability of a significant impact on the immediate New York City area from a strong nor'easter has increased overnight and during the day today. Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tomorrow night through the weekend. At present, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island could see 3"-5" of rain. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Some uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. However, it increasingly appears that the storm will be an impactful one. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The 18z NBM:

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.

Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy day. Highs should reach the middle and upper 60s. Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday through the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter to moderate amounts of precipitation in the immediate New York City area. Coastal erosion and some flooding at high tide appears likely. Long Island, especially Suffolk County, could experience gusty winds with some periods of heavy rain. Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.757 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow and part of Thursday will be variably cloudy. A few locations could see a shower tomorrow, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s. Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday into the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -9.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.201 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It's unfortunate. WB will never correct the algorithms.

I agree. It was good to see the sunshine.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be variably cloudy days. A few locations could see a shower, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s. Some rain and showers are possible Thursday and Friday. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter to perhaps moderate amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty exists. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout the week with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -23.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.435 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It does appear that there is somewhat more dry air around than I had thought yesterday. So, today and even tomorrow could have some periods of sunshine with a diminished risk of showers. An offshore storm will need to be watched closely toward the end of the week.

Mid/late morning into early mid-afternoon may see some sun. Clouds should return afterward.

Periods of rain and drizzle are likely tomorrow and Tuesday. Highs tomorrow should be in the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday will be cooler with the temperature struggling to reach the lower 60s. Wednesday could temporarily dry out. Additional rain and showers are possible Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout the week with highs mainly in the lower 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -35.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.619 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.3° (0.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Scenes from the New York Botanical Garden yesterday before a prolonged siege of clouds and periods of rain set in.

A rainy period will likely develop tomorrow. Periods of rain could continue into at least the middle of next week. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.9°C for the week centered around September 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.65°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -42.37 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.194 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.2° (1.0° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes, in terms of the fall equinox, fall begins Tuesday. Meteorological fall, which is used for climate data purposes, began on September 1st.

It's early in terms of timing, but Sunday afternoon/evening appear to have the highest chance of heavier rain.