donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A shower or thundershower is possible late Monday or Monday night. A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay. A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -9.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.329 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Yes. We'll see if 2026 can get a 90° or above high in September. After today or tomorrow, there should be a break in 90s for at least a week or two.
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Aside from a widely scattered shower or thundershower, this evening and tonight will be variably cloudy and warm. Above normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the weekend until near the middle of next week. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay. A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.288 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Four cloud shots from my recent trip to the Shenandoah National Park:
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With yesterday's 91° high, 2026 has become only the fifth year on record for Central Park with highs of 90° or above in April, May, June, July, and August. The other years are 1896, 1962, 1991, and 2010. It is the only year that also included a high of 80° or above in March followed by the 90s in April through August. Records go back to 1869.
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I'm happy to learn the driver is ok.
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Shelf cloud just before the thunderstorm impacted Larchmont.
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Mammatus clouds ahead of an approaching thunderstorm a short time ago.
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I drove to through this cell on reaching I-87 from near Mahwah. There was vivid lightning and an area of pea-sized hail.
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A few locations could still see a shower or thundershower this evening. Most of the region will likely be dry. Rainfall totals through 4 pm include: Bridgeport: 0.97" (old record: 0.95", 1954) Hartford: 3.54" (old record: 3.18", 1954) ***7th Highest August Daily Amount*** Islip: 1.89" (old record: 1.36", 1987) New York City-Central Park: 1.93" New York City-JFK Airport: 2.75" (old record: 1.90", 1948) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.22" Newark: 2.27" (old record: 1.60", 1885) Westfield: 1.69" Westhampton: 1.63" (old record: 1.41", 1961) Worcester: 1.52" (tied record set in 1996) No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. However, it will turn warmer during the second half of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.154 today.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
donsutherland1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The ongoing super El Niño is approaching historic proportions in ENSO Region 1+2. The anomaly for the week centered around July 30 was +4.1°C. The last time the anomaly was at least as high was the week centered around July 6, 1983 (+4.2°C) as the 1982-83 super El Niño was nearing an end. The record is +4.5°C for the week centered around June 29, 1983. -
Through 9 am, JFK Airport has received 2.05" of rain. That breaks the old record of 1.90" from 1948.
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Newark has now received 1.67" of rain today. That breaks the August 3 daily record of 1.60" from 1885. As was the case with the most recent large rain event, the White Plains precipitation gauge is down. Although the data shows 0.04" on July 29 and 0.02" on July 30, those figures understate the actual figures, as the gauge was down for large stretches of rain.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Denver has quietly reached and then surpassed 40 90° or above days. What was once an uncommon event has now become routine in the warming climate. Through August 2, 2026, Denver has had 41 such days. During 1872-1999, Denver saw 40 or more such days about once every 7.5 years. Since 2000, such years have occurred once every 1.2 years. Eleven of the last 12 years have seen 40 or more such days. -
A moderate to significant rainfall is likely tomorrow into Tuesday. Much of the New York City area will likely see 0.50"-1.50" of rain. An area of 2.00"-3.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible, especially north and west of New York City. No exceptional heat is likely through the first week of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.297 today.
