donsutherland1

Mild weather prevails. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs mainly in the middle 60s. The first half of next week will also feature highs in the lower and middle 60s. The weather will be mainly dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -11.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.960 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Milder weather has now returned to the region. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. The week will also be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -22.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.722 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Oklahoma also destroyed its old record. September 2026: 82.8° (old record: 80.1°, 1931). Virtually all of the state exceeded its prior monthly record.

The September statewide data for Texas is now in. The heat of September 2026 made a mockery of the State's prior monthly record. September 2026 finished with a statewide mean temperature of 84.1°. 2023, the prior record, was left in the distant dust with a relatively cool 81.8°. September 2019 was further back in third with a mean temperature of 81.5°.

Milder weather will return to the region starting tomorrow. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury returning to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -10.83 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.120 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

New York City will see the temperature again dip below 50° tonight. Lows should fall to the middle and upper 40s in New York City early tomorrow morning. Some distant suburbs could again see lows bottom out in the 30s with some scattered frost. Thursday and Friday will be milder days with the mercury returning to the lower 70s across much of the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.51 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.195 today.

The coolest air so far this fall will move into the region tonight. As a result, New York City could see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season tomorrow morning. Lows should fall to the middle and upper 40s in New York City on Wednesday morning. Some distant suburbs could see lows bottom out in the 30s. Thursday and Friday will be milder days with the mercury returning to the lower 70s across much of the region. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -21.34 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.033 today.

Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. The mild weather will be short-lived, as much cooler air will poor into the region afterward. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The week will be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or the following Monday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -30.49 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.264 today.

Anchorage also received 0.1" snow on October 1. That was its first measurable snowfall on record of October 1.

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -24.43 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.803 today.

Under brilliant sunshine, today was a great day to see some of the migrating hummingbirds and monarchs at the New York Botanical Garden.

The temperature soared into the lower 80s across the New York City area. Central Park reached 83° and Newark reached 87°. In New England, Manchester, NH reached 85°, which broke the daily record of 84° from 2002. Progressively cooler weather now lies ahead. It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with highs reaching mainly the lower 70s. Sunday will be even cooler with temperatures topping out in the middle and upper 60s. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today.

I can't say that it will be an analog. But some strong El Niños have been a "one-storm" winter. Even 1997-98, but its storm was 5.0". Some have had no major storms in the region e.g., 1972-73, which also had a pre-October 1 measurable snowfall in Anchorage.

Anchorage had its first measurable snowfall on record for October 1st. The last time Anchorage received a measurable snowfall on or before October 1st was September 29, 2015.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.121 today.