donsutherland1

May DCA NYC BOS ORD ATL IAH DEN PHX SEA -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.0 +0.5 +0.7 +2.5

It will be rainy tonight into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s despite partly sunny skies. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.224 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

This is the first I heard about it. Thanks for sharing this update.

Tomorrow will see temperatures reach the lower 60s. Another shot of rain will arrive. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely tomorrow into Thursday. Following the rainfall, temperatures will top out in the lower 60s through Saturday. May will likely open with cooler than normal conditions. Sunday could be especially cool with highs only in the upper 50s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -15.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will see temperatures reach the lower and middle 60s, with tomorrow being the warmer day. However, another shot of rain followed by somewhat cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -19.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.189 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The recent rain delivered 0.50"-1.50" of rain to the region, along with some locally higher figures. Rainfall amounts included: Bridgeport: 0.89" Islip: 1.31" New Haven: 0.74" New York City-Central Park: 1.39" New York City-JFK Airport: 1.49" New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.45" Newark: 1.64" Philadelphia: 0.51" White Plains: 1.07" Tomorrow through Wednesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s. However, another shot of rain followed by cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely for Wednesday into Thursday. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.960 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

With OpenAI releasing Images 2.0, I decided to test it to make a poster depicting Winter 2025-2026. I used four of my photos and provided some content. I then prompted it to create a poster based on the images and textual content. Here's what it came up with: I also did the same with five photos I took at the New York Botanical Garden and The Cloisters. I asked for a highly creative arrangement where the tulip photos would comprise a tulip. All said, Image 2.0 is far more advanced than the preceding version.

Additional rain and showers are likely tonight and tomorrow. A storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts remains on track. It will also remain unseasonably cool with temperatures topping out in the middle 50s to end the weekend. Monday and Tuesday will be somewhat warmer with highs reaching the lower and middle 60s. However, another shot of rain and cooler temperatures will arrive during the middle of the week. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -28.48 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.884 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes, things have trended cooler. The onset of late-season blocking has played an important role.

A cool and wet weekend lies ahead. Highs will reach only the lower 50s tomorrow and the middle and upper 50s on Sunday. Periods of rain are likely on tomorrow into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -10.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.231 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.3° (1.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Following today's balmy temperatures, it will turn cooler tomorrow with temperatures topping out in the lower to perhaps middle 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the lower 50s on Saturday and middle and upper 50s on Sunday. Periods of rain are likely on Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 0.50"-1.50" with a few locally higher amounts are likely across the region. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. May could also open with cooler than normal conditions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -2.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.985 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It will turn briefly springlike tomorrow. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, it will turn cooler on Friday with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s. The weekend will be even cooler with highs in the upper 50s. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall. Beyond the weekend, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal for the remainder of April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.013 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.4° (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Near record and record cold covered the region this morning. Records included: Allentown: 24° (old record: 28°, 1925, 1956, and 2018) Hartford: 27° (tied record set in 1961) Poughkeepsie: 24° (old record: 26°, 2018) Scranton: 24° (old record: 26°, 1925) Westhampton: 22° (old record: 23°, 2014) White Plains: 27° (old record: 29°, 1981) The last time White Plains recorded a low in the 20s on or after April 21st was April 23, 1982. Tomorrow will be somewhat milder with highs returning to the upper 50s. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences. No cold shots comparable to the current one are likely for the remainder of spring. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -5.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.507 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

White Plains saw the temperature fall below 30F (-1.1C) this morning. The last time it got at least as cold this late in the season was April 23, 1982 when the low was 26F (-3.3C). The low of 28F (-2.2C) broke the daily record of 29F (-1.7C) from 1981.

Tomorrow will start off with unseasonably cold temperatures. Lows will fall into the middle or upper 30s in New York City. Areas outside of New York City could experience a late-season freeze. Highs will reach the middle 50s. Wednesday will be somewhat milder. The temperature could approach or reach 70° on Thursday before another cooling trend commences. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. Some showers are possible during the weekend. There remains some risk for a more meaningful rainfall given the lead time involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around April 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was -0.07 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.9° (2.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.