donsutherland1

The preliminary data reveal that Summer 2026 swept past Summers 1936 and 2021 to easily become the warmest summer on record for the contiguous United States. Five of the ten warmest summers have occurred since 2020. Just two occurred during the 1930s.

Astra did a really good job.

Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s tomorrow and Thursday. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. the greatest likelihood for some showers is Thursday evening and Thursday night when a cold front crosses the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -26.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.761 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.9° (0.7° above normal). The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with the high reaching the lower 80s. Temperatures will likely peak in the lower and middle 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around September 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -24.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.209 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.7° (0.5° above normal). The Region 1+2 anomaly surpasses the all-time record of +4.5° that was set during the week centered around June 29, 1983. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled early September day. The hummingbird migration is in its early stages.

Yes. That's what the current 90-day figures show.

For reference, the latest first lows occurred as follows: 50s: September 17, 2016 40s: October 18, 2021 30s: November 13, 1946 and 2024

Thank you. Yes, that makes sense and it’s clear that there are many days where the mercury exceeds freezing.

I may be referring to a different article. I was citing a ClimateBrink piece by Zeke Hausfather, which didn't mention bias correction. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/what-we-can-and-cannot-say-about

Tomorrow will be another day with somewhat cooler than normal temperatures, as the mercury tops out in the upper 70s. Tuesday will be a bit warmer with the high reaching the lower 80s. By midweek, readings could return to the lower 80s. A few of the warmer spots could top out in the middle 80s. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. Overall, the week looks to be dry with little or no rainfall likely through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -21.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.838 today.

Here's where I think the issue lies. The graph is based on where the collapsing rock/glacier hit the valley (around 4,300 meters above sea level). The bedrock, glacier was about 5,200 meters. So, the graph is correct in that the region has been warming, but it is not the mean temperature of the actual glacier. Nevertheless, preceding the collapse, temperatures had reached 90° or above in Kathmandu. At standard lapse rates, that would suggest readings in the middle 40s at the altitude of the glacier. During the June 1-August 25 period, Kathmandu had 77 days with highs of 80° or above. At standard lapse rates, that would amount to highs of 35° or above at 5,200 meters. So, at least using the standard lapse rates and Kathmandu's data, most of the summer days saw at least some melting where the collapse took place.

It is, but both sites are in different Himalayan subregions with different topography and wind exposure.

The Everest base camp is about 160 km from the site of the bedrock/glacial collapse that occurred last month.

Florac, France, where September records go back to 1861, has recorded its three hottest September temperatures on record during the current heatwave. September 4, 1966 saw its first 30C (86F) or above September temperature on record.

A cool Labor Day weekend has commenced. Temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. Readings in New York City could fall into the lower 60s with widespread 50s outside the City. The cool weather will likely continue into the middle of next week. By midweek, readings could return to the lower 80s. Another push of cooler air could arrive by Friday or Saturday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.627 today.