donsutherland1

Above normal temperatures will persist through Friday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, the weekend and early next week will likely see highs mainly in the lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +1.76 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.776 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I don't disagree that it could be viable, especially if strong blocking were to develop. I was just referring to the entire period. I think a back-loaded scenario is plausible. So is a one notable storm-type idea.

This seems realistic given what is fairly likely (robust and energetic subtropical jet that brings above to perhaps much above normal precipitation to the southern tier). It seems that the initial outlook discounted the 2009-10 analog (as it should). Fall seems more uncertain, as one is dealing both with a lot of variables and the seasonal transition.

The Dust Bowl was a regional phenomenon focused largely on the Plains and Midwest (location of the extreme drought amplified by poor land use/farming practices). Heat occasionally spread outside that region. New York City's 106° record is one example. The heat was so intense that the contiguous United States recorded its hottest month on record in July 1936. That record has fallen now. Slowly but inexorably, as temperatures continue to rise, some of the site records from 1936 in the Plains and Midwest are also being erased. Over the next few decades, many more of those records will likely be eclipsed. It's plausible that the July 2026 mark will be surpassed one or more times in the next 10-20 years.

Parts of the region could see a shower or thundershower this evening and tonight. Above normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow or Thursday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +6.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.346 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The Dust Bowl occupies an almost sacred place in the mythology of American climate-change denial. For decades, July 1936 was treated as something more than an old weather record. It was a relic. It was a supposedly untouchable reminder that extreme heat had happened long before modern greenhouse-gas concentrations reached today’s levels. Whenever evidence of warming accumulated, the response could be summoned: What about 1936? If the climate is warming, why hasn’t that record been broken? For ninety years, it wasn’t. Even July 2012 fell short. Then came July 2026. NOAA reported that July 2026 averaged 76.89°F across the contiguous United States, surpassing July 1936 and becoming the hottest month in the nation’s instrumental record. The seemingly unbreakable record had fallen. One monthly record does not prove climate change. Science does not rest on a single heat wave, drought, hurricane, or thermometer. The case for human-caused warming rests on something far larger: rising global temperatures, increasing ocean heat, retreating ice, rising seas, changing extremes, and the well-established physics of greenhouse gases. But the fall of July 1936 matters enormously as a symbol. For years, climate-change deniers used the endurance of that record as evidence that modern warming was exaggerated or nonexistent. Now the record they had elevated into an argument no longer supports them. And that creates a problem. If 1936 mattered when it stood unbeaten, it cannot suddenly become meaningless the moment it falls. The initial response from parts of the denial movement has been predictable. Denial, excuses, and insinuations that NOAA’s measurements somehow are not the “real” measurements. A CFACT policy analyst, for example, appealed to supposedly superior “real measured thermometer data.” But where is the analysis? Where is the methodology? Where is the reproducible evidence demonstrating that NOAA is wrong? Where is the paper with all that information? There is nothing. Just a hollow claim on social media. Without those things, “I have the real data” is not a scientific argument. It is an appeal to belief. It is a hallucination of an alternate reality that is as irrelevant to science as it is unreal. Science works differently. Produce the data. Explain the method. Show the calculations. Allow others to test them. If the evidence survives scrutiny, scientific understanding changes. Those rules may not hold in the policy world where ideology holds enormous power and interests influence thinking. But the scientific world is a whole different place. Pursuit of truth, even if that pursuit requires discarding earlier understanding, is of paramount importance. Ideological denial works in reverse of science. When evidence threatens the conclusion, the evidence itself becomes suspect. Beliefs, ideology, and interests must be defended, even at the cost of truth. The above rejection of the reality that July 2026 was hotter than July 1936 recalls opponents of Galileo who resisted observations that threatened the universe they already believed in. Rather than see for themselves through Galileo's telescope, they turned down his invitation. Sometimes it is easier to distrust the telescope than to rebuild one's understanding of the cosmos. To those timid souls, maintaining error is far more comforting than accepting that one's belief was wrong. Genuine courage gives one the strength to revise one's thinking when the evidence suggests such change is needed. The NOAA has confirmed that July 2026 is now the hottest month on record in the United States. A longstanding record has not merely been surpassed. One of the denial movement’s most durable rhetorical monuments has been toppled. Climate change denial will not disappear because of a single record. New excuses will arise. Goalposts will be moved. But something important has changed. For ninety years, July 1936 stood as the great American heat record. It survived generation after generation. It survived 2012. It survived decades of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Then, in July 2026, it fell. Science has no sacred records. It has evidence. 1936 was evidence. 2026 is evidence. The thermometer has now rendered its verdict. Pretense that it has not, cannot affect reality. Pretense can only undermine the credibility of those who choose not to accept reality.

A few showers or thundershowers are possible this evening and early tonight. Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Above normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday or Thursday. Highs will generally top out in the middle and upper 80s. Cooler air will move into the region to close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was +2.00 today. That ended the 91-day streak during which the SOI was negative. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.138 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

In the early release of data, July 2026 has dethroned July 1936 as the hottest month on record for the United States. With July warming about 0.51° per decade since 1980, the longstanding Dust Bowl era record was bound to fall. July 2012 narrowly fell short of the mark. July 2026 surpassed it by more than 0.10°.

Above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A shower or thundershower is possible late Monday or Monday night. A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay. A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -9.89 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.329 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. We'll see if 2026 can get a 90° or above high in September. After today or tomorrow, there should be a break in 90s for at least a week or two.

Aside from a widely scattered shower or thundershower, this evening and tonight will be variably cloudy and warm. Above normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the weekend until near the middle of next week. Highs will generally top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s in the warmest spots. A somewhat cooler air mass will arrive near mid-week. Afterward, readings will be mainly in the lower to middle 80s for Wednesday and Thursay. A push of even cooler air is possible by the close of the week. As a result, Friday through Sunday could see highs mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.02°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -16.51 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.288 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Four cloud shots from my recent trip to the Shenandoah National Park:

With yesterday's 91° high, 2026 has become only the fifth year on record for Central Park with highs of 90° or above in April, May, June, July, and August. The other years are 1896, 1962, 1991, and 2010. It is the only year that also included a high of 80° or above in March followed by the 90s in April through August. Records go back to 1869.

I'm happy to learn the driver is ok.

Shelf cloud just before the thunderstorm impacted Larchmont.