donsutherland1

Based on the forecast teleconnections, a track that leads to impacts in the northern Mid-Atlantic/southern New England regions remains plausible. The PNA+ promotes an eastern trough and the AO- block can slow the system. With the AO rising rapidly, but remaining strongly negative, the risk of suppression is reduced over what it would be were the AO to be at or below -3.000 and falling. An out-to-sea or only grazing solution remains possible, but solution that has at least some impacts remains more likely than a purely out-to-sea solution. IMO, the 1/26 18z ECMWF-AIFS provides a plausible outcome. It also has support from the NBM's probabilities. Currently the storm and its development remain beyond the range of the models' capability to skillfully resolve the synoptic details that will lead up to the possible event. Until then, the broader longwave pattern and its evolution offer insight. At this lead time, storm formation seems to be a reasonable scenario. A coastal or out-to-sea track are both realistic possibilities with the former still looking more likely than the latter. By Wednesday or perhaps Thursday, there should be greater consensus on the outcome, especially as the guidance will be starting to resolve the all-important synoptic details. For now, a moderate- or high-impact storm remains on the table.

Central Park and JFK Airport had < 10". LaGuardia had 10".

Yes, assuming it occurs.

February 8-9, 1994 is listed as having 9.0".

New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869.

New York City experienced its biggest snowstorm in nearly five years when 17.4" accumulated during January 31-February 3, 2021. Arctic air is now returning to the region. Highs will then be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tomorrow could again see highs top out in the teens in New York City. That could happene again later in the week. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Additional snow is possible on Sunday. A number of ensemble members hint that the snowfall could be significant. It's too soon to be certain about details. A large storm would be historic. For reference, New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -9.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.462 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Totals aren't yet available for a number of locations. We'll see this evening after today's snowfall amounts are added in for some of the sites.

IMO, this remains a closer call than with the most recent storm where I believed it would not be suppressed. I still think the most likely scenarios are either up the coast (track and distance from the coast to be determined) or out-to-sea (lesser probability). The scenario of an inland cutter is probably the lowest probability right now. This is based on the forecast pattern. Synoptic details can't be resolved accurately at this timeframe. We'll see where things are by Wednesday or Thursday.

It's early, but IMO based on the modeled pattern (assuming it holds), I'd give the system nearly a 2-in-3 chance of coming far enough up the coast to impact Long Island, New York City, and at least its nearby northern and western suburbs. The exact track will be crucial to details, but at this stage the guidance cannot accurately resolve the synoptic details.

It will be a close call. A few days in early February could approach or reach freezing. Model skill that far out is low so the range of error is fairly high.

For those wondering about the location in Larchmont, the photo was taken on North Chatsworth Avenue looking toward Myrtle Boulevard (traffic light).

16 consecutive days (January 19-February 3, 1961).

Central Park received 1.80" precipitation yesterday. The 0z GGEM was, by far, the closest model. The RGEM was a distant second.

They should try to get acquainted with the basics before going on the air.

New York City is experiencing its biggest winter storm in nearly five years. Through 4 pm, 8.8" had fallen in Central Park. 1 W Throgs Neck Bridge in the Bronx has so far had the City's highest amount at 11.3". The last time New York City saw a 6" or greater snowfall was January 28-29, 2022 when 8.3" fell. Its last 10" or above snowfall occurred during January 31-February 3, 2021 when 17.4" accumulated. Arctic air will return to the region as the storm departs tomorrow. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Friday. Tuesday could again see highs top out in the teens in New York City. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on or more days during this period. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was -14.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.614 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.5° (3.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.