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donsutherland1

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About donsutherland1

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    http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoindex.html

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KNYC
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    Male
  • Location:
    New York

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  1. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow should mainly fair and very warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  2. donsutherland1
    I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes.
  3. donsutherland1
    The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.
  4. donsutherland1
    From this morning via iPhone:
  5. donsutherland1
    A few spots could see an evening shower or thundershower. Most of the region will remain dry. Tomorrow and Wednesday should mainly fair and warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -18.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.064 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  6. donsutherland1
    Showers and perhaps a thundershower are likely into this evening into early tomorrow. Following the frontal passage, Tomorrow through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower to middle 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -17.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.420 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  7. donsutherland1
    Thank you for the kind words.
  8. donsutherland1
    With a super El Niño raging in combination with the rising heat of anthropogenic climate change, 2026 has now set daily global temperature records on the ERA-5 dataset for seven consecutive days. In addition, 2026 has the latest 17°C or above global mean temperature by seven days. ERA-5 data for the last four years and daily records for the August 8-14 period are below. For reference, below are the monthly records and number of daily records by year (through August 14, 2026).
  9. donsutherland1
    Sunrise this morning.
  10. donsutherland1
    Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled August day with a light breeze and low humidity:
  11. donsutherland1
    Clouds will increase tomorrow holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely tomorrow night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours. Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.530 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (0.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  12. donsutherland1
    Late August/early September: Probably near normal with perhaps a cool period. Remainder of September: generally above normal. October: I am really uncertain.
  13. donsutherland1
    I agree. 1972-73, 1982-83, and 2015-16 had 1 or more days with measurable snowfall in Athens.
  14. donsutherland1
    Temperatures will top out in the lower to perhaps middle 80s in a few warm spots to start the weekend. Clouds will increase on Sunday holding the temperature to the upper 70s or lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are likely Sunday night into Monday. A few locations could see heavy downpours. Following the frontal passage, Monday through Wednesday should feature temperatures in the lower 80s, along wth partly to mostly sunny skies. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.15°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.810 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
  15. donsutherland1
    Some statistics for the Southeast concerning snowstorms during strong El Niño winters are below. Atlanta may have among the best chance of seeing a measurable snowstorm this upcoming winter.
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