donsutherland1

Following the warmest August and warmest month on record in the ERA-5 dataset, September 1 started with a global mean temperature of 16.739C. That destroyed the monthly record of 16.607C from September 1, 2024. The preliminary 0.132C difference between the new mark and the old record is the largest difference between any first and second highest monthly values.

Tomorrow and Friday will see temperatures top out mainly in the lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Excessive heat with highs in the middle and upper 90s will be just south of the region in such cities as Baltimore and Washington tomorrow and Friday. A cooler air mass will move into the region for the Labor Day weekend. In its wake, temperatures will generally peak in the middle and upper 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.219 today.

August 2026 finished with a preliminary monthly mean temperature of 16.957C. That would shatter the August mark of 16.823C from 2024. It would also edge past July 2023's 16.953C to become the warmest month on record in the ERA-5 dataset.

Here are the temperature anomalies for the Nepal/Tibet area. If Copernicus confirms this data for August, that will raise questions about JB's maps. Perhaps, just as with the CFSv2, they have a cold bias? August 1-25, 2026: Summer (June 1-August 25):

Parts of the region could experience a strong thunderstorm this evening or tonight. Tomorrow through Friday will see temperatures top out mainly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Excessive heat with highs in the middle and upper 90s will be just south of the region in such cities as Baltimore and Washington tomorrow and Thursday. A cooler air mass could move into the region for the Labor Day weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.50°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -0.79 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.320 today.

For reference: The first report on the Nepal glacial collapse event: https://hirisk.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/RHA_NP3_RasuwaFlood-1.pdf

Given the literature, a climate change contribution appears likely. As I replied to Larry, that doesn't mean that climate change was the main or leading cause. A lot more research will be needed for that determination, as well as to estimate the magnitude of climate-related contribution. Your theoretical point is a fair argument. My conclusion is based largely on the body of literature.

Climate change is likely a contributing factor. It's too soon to know whether it was the main cause. A lot for research will be needed to pin down the main cause. The only thing that appears extremely unlikely given the literature is Martz's contention that it had no impact.

A look at Phoenix's just-concluded summer (3rd hottest on record). Summers 2020-2026 have averaged 96.4F (35.8C). Prior to 2020, the hottest summers were 2013 and 2015 with mean temperatures of 95.1F (35.1C). The extreme has become routine.

That's part of the reason I suggested that the precise role of climate change remains to be determined. Given the body of literature, there was likely a role. The least likely scenario is none. Further study will be needed to gain a better understanding. Even if there is a flash attribution study, the full picture probably won't be available for several years until research findings are published.

When one's narrative is destroyed by the facts, some accept reality. Others, however, resort to conspiracy theories.

So, he created a fairy tale on video. As I provided a link and full context to the article he referenced, there's no need to comment further on his video.

He's flailing in a desperate attempt hold onto an unsustainable explanation. First, he claimed that it was an earthquake, even hours after the USGS revealed that the glacial collapse and debris flow triggered the shaking. Then it was past earthquakes that led to destabilization. Now he spins the latest development hoping to evade any climate links, but only exposing his lack of knowledge of both climate and geological processes. As noted yesterday, frost-wedging can lead to a fracturing, disintegration, and breaking of rock over time. Water finds its way into cracks and microfissures and expands as it freezes. The ice then melts when temperatures warm. This repeated cycle eventually causes larger cracks to develop and, ultimately, the rock to split or break. The warming climate in the high alpine regions of the Himalayas has accelerated this form of rock weathering. Finally, notice that he didn't provide a link to the actual story. He wanted to limit his audience to his opinion, depriving them of the full contents. Here's why: the story goes on to state: Mountain geographer Alton Byers of the University of Colorado Boulder has linked the disaster to climate change. He said permafrost, which has helped hold together high-altitude rock, ice, soil and glaciers for thousands of years, is weakening and becoming increasingly unstable. However, Cook and Shugar have not established a direct link between global warming and the bedrock failure. While they believe permafrost is melting and may be contributing to the destabilisaton of mountain slopes, they said further analysis is needed to determine the precise cause of the collapse. In sum, the article he references to dismiss any link to climate change actually does not rule out the role of climate change. All said, based on the full body of evidence and the insights from existing literature, climate change likely played a role, probably through a cascading set of complex processes (glacial melt, rock weathering, permafrost melt, etc.). Its precise role remains to be determined. The least likely scenario is zero impact from climate change. Further analysis will provide greater insight.

JFK had two such days and LaGuardia had five. There have been 21 years where Central Park had none in August. The most recent such year was 2023.

August finished with a monthly mean temperature of 75.8° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.3° below normal (1991-2020).