donsutherland1

Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach or exceed 70°. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season perhaps on Tuesday morning and then on Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle and upper 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -24.43 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.803 today.

Under brilliant sunshine, today was a great day to see some of the migrating hummingbirds and monarchs at the New York Botanical Garden.

The temperature soared into the lower 80s across the New York City area. Central Park reached 83° and Newark reached 87°. In New England, Manchester, NH reached 85°, which broke the daily record of 84° from 2002. Progressively cooler weather now lies ahead. It will turn somewhat cooler tomorrow with highs reaching mainly the lower 70s. Sunday will be even cooler with temperatures topping out in the middle and upper 60s. Some showers or a thundershower are possible late in the day or at night as a strong cold front moves across the region. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.394 today.

I can't say that it will be an analog. But some strong El Niños have been a "one-storm" winter. Even 1997-98, but its storm was 5.0". Some have had no major storms in the region e.g., 1972-73, which also had a pre-October 1 measurable snowfall in Anchorage.

Anchorage had its first measurable snowfall on record for October 1st. The last time Anchorage received a measurable snowfall on or before October 1st was September 29, 2015.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. In its wake, New York City will see the temperature dip below 50° for the first time this season Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest morning so far this season with the temperature tumbling into the middle 40s in New York City and 30s in some distant outlying suburbs. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.121 today.

In part due to moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo, Lincoln, NE set an all-time daily precipitation record yesterday with 6.15" of rain. The old record had stood for more than a century.

Through 2018, just only 2005 (5th hottest at the time) and 2015 (9th hottest at the time) ranked among Texas' ten hottest Septembers on record. The monthly mark of 80.7° from 1911 stood at the top, challenged only by 1931 (80.5°). All other years were more than 0.5° or more cooler. Then, in 2019, Texas recorded a monthly average temperature of 81.5°. Four years later, that mark was eclipsed with an 81.8° average. Preliminary data suggests that 2026 smashed the 2023 record, potentially by more than 1°. Preliminary Texas September Anomalies: Numerous cities established monthly records in Texas. Some stations set new records by large margins. Brownsville registered its third warmest month on record, less than 0.1° cooler than August 2026, which ranked second. McAllen, powered by a record stretch of 100° days, which reached 70 days on September 30th, experienced its second warmest month on record. Brownsville rewrote large parts of its September record book. It even tied its all-time record high minimum temperature of 85° on September 13th and then again on September 30th. Prior to 2026, Brownsville's latest 85° minimum temperature occurred on August 6, 1896. 2026 also became the first year with two such low temperatures. Brownsville also recorded its hottest two-month and three-month periods on record: 2-Month: August-September 2026: 89.8° (old record: July-August 2023: 89.4°) 3- Month: July-September 2026: 89.3° (old record: July-September 2023: 89.1°)

September finished with a monthly mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.8° below normal (1991-2020). The September 25-28 nor'easter that brought 3.10" of rainfall to Central Park was arguably the month's highlight event.

September is finishing with a mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City. That is 0.8° below normal (0.4° above the older 1981-2010 baseline). Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -10.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.

October DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 3.3 2.1 3.1

Tomorrow will see partly sunny skies, along with temperatures topping out in the lower and middle 70s. Thursday and Friday will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -16.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.287 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

With the nor'easter finally moving away, drier weather lies ahead. Already, the clouds are breaking across the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see some sunshine along with warmer readings that will reach the lower and middle 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -13.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.083 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Through 7 pm, New York City has picked up a storm total 2.44" of rain. Periods of rain, some of which could still be heavy are likely tonight After some early showers, tomorrow will begin to dry out. The temperature will rise into the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday could see some sunshine along with warmer readings in the lower and middle 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -14.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.051 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It seems to have held up better than I had expected. I was relieved that the dunes weren't badly affected. Some photos from Robert Moses: