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Cooler weather has now returned to the region. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow through Wednesday. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. No heat appears likely through at least June 25th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -12.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.321 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1 (2.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. That's true. With the warming climate, this year's mark will probably fall in the not too distant future.

Showers and thundershowers are likely thie evening and tonight as a cold front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe, bringing strong winds, small hail, and heavy downpours. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of the week. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle to upper 70s tomorrow through Wednesday. It will then become somewhat warmer to conclude the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.712 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.3 (2.3° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the eighth warmest June on record with 1925, 1957, and 2021. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Newark has reached 90° for the 12th time this year. The old record through June 14th was 10 days. That record was set in 1930 and tied in 1986 and 1991. 1930 finished with 37 90° or above days; 1986 had just 22; 1991 had 41.

Very warm conditions will likely continue through tomorrow. Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region. Some of the thunderstorms could be strong or severe. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -30.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.344 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.4 (2.4° above normal). That would make June 2026 the eighth warmest June on record. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden during a warm June day.

Yesterday saw record heat in New York City with LaGuardia Airport hitting 98° and JFK Airport coming in a close second at 96°. So far, there have been three days where Central Park has been New York City's coolest location: June 7: Central Park: 81°; JFK Airport: 86°; LaGuardia Airport: 83° June 11: Central Park: 91°; JFK Airport: 95°; LaGuardia Airport: 96° June 12: Central Park: 90°; JFK Airport: 96°; LaGuardia Airport: 98° The June 1-12, 2026 Average High Temperatures are below: Central Park: 82.4° (trees) JFK Airport: 82.7° (sea breeze prone) LaGuardia Airport: 84.4° Even as New York City has been warming over the most recent 30 years (1996-2025 vs. 1966-1995) during June, Central Park has seen its high temperatures cool on account of the increased tree cover. This outcome is not novel. This ongoing real-world experiment in allowing tree growth to proceed at Central Park's temperature station is producing results that are consistent with the outcomes documented in the empirical literature. One recent study concerning the cooling effect of trees can be found here.

Very warm conditions will likely continue through Sunday. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. Some rain is also likely early next week, but rainfall amounts could be fairly light. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -15.11 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.364 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.5 (2.5° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the seventh warmest June on record with 1984. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The temperature soared to 91° in Central Park. As a result, 2026 became New York City's first year on record with a high of 80° or above in March and then 90° or above in April, May, and June. Aside from a potentially strong to severe thunderstorm tonight, tomorrow will be another hot day. The temperature will likely top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Very warm conditions will likely continue through Sunday. Parts of the region could experience a heatwave. Humidity levels could make the heat particularly uncomfortable. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms could develop tomorrow. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. Some rain is also likely early next week, but rainfall amounts could be fairly light. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.69 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.779 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.7 (2.7° above normal). That would tie June 2026 the fifth warmest June on record with 1899 and 2010. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

A period of above normal temperatures is developing. The temperature will likely top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow through Saturday. Parts of the region could experience a heatwave during the second half of the week. Humidity levels could make the heat particularly uncomfortable. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms could develop tomorrow and again on Friday. Sunday will remain very warm with highs mainly in the upper 80s. Cooler weather will return for at least the first half of next week. Some rain is also likely early next week, but rainfall amounts could be fairly light. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.630 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.9 (2.9° above normal). That would make June 2026 the fifth warmest June on record. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

That's probably a reference to the heat index.

Above normal temperatures will return for the remainder of the week by Thursday. Tomorrow will see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The temperature will likely top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday through Saturday. Parts of the region could experience a heatwave during the second half of the week. Humidity levels could make the heat particularly uncomfortable. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -12.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.625 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (2.6° above normal). That would make June 2026 the seventh warmest June on record. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It will be interesting to see how strong the ongoing and rapidly developing El Niño becomes. Only the 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24 El Niño events saw the 6-week moving average for Region 3.4 reach or exceed +0.9°C in June or July.

Above normal temperatures will return for the remainder of the week by Wednesday or Thursday. Tomorrow will see highs in the lower 80s. Wednesday should see highs in the lower to perhaps middle 80s. The temperature could approach or reach 90° to end the week. Parts of the region could experience a heatwave during the second half of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -25.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.597 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.8° (2.8° above normal). That would make June 2026 the fifth warmest June on record. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Following an earlier shower, the afternoon featured abundant sunshine and a refreshing breeze. Three photos from the New York Botanical Garden: