donsutherland1

The latest NBM remains very mild for the start of November. Uncertainty increases at the end of the run.

Tomorrow will be another fair day. Highs will top out in the lower 60s across much of the region. Afterward, temperatures will warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Much of the region could approach or reach 70° on Friday. Unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of November. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +12.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.303 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.4° (1.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The most recent NBM cycles have grown slightly cooler for the start of November. Nevertheless, readings remain well above average.

The AIFS ensembles are particularly warm for the first week of November. The regular ECMWF ensembles are still warm (highs in the 60s), but cooler than their AI counterparts. The extended range of the NBM is also closer to the regular ECMWF ensembles. Both sets of ECMWF ensembles have high spreads (uncertainty), especially after November 3. However, the uncertainty concerns the magnitude of warmth, not whether it will be warmer than normal. The idea of a warmer than normal start to November has been a recurrent theme on the guidance. The most recent ECMWF weekly guidance is below.

Thank you for your kind words, ChescoWX. I appreciate them. Have a great evening.

It will turn somewhat cooler with readings in the upper 50s to near 60° for tomorrow and Wednesday before temperatures again warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Much of the region could approach or reach 70° on Friday. Unseasonable warmth will continue into the start of November. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +9.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.221 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.5° (1.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

MPO doesn’t keep a snowfall record.

I deleted it. I had pulled up the records but didn't check for missing years. Too many years were missing for that site to be reliable.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s. A few locations will likely reach or exceed 70°. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday before temperatures again warm into the middle and upper 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +12.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.057 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.3° (1.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

This morning's low at Mount Pocono was 27°. October 17 is the average date for first 20s. Last year's October 10 was earlier than usual. The only recent year that I recall JFK's reaching 32° in October was 2020 (October 31st). That day, the high-low split for MPO was 39°-22°. That was the coldest October high temperature since 2012 when the high was also 39°. However, since you mentioned a date prior to October 20, that might have been October 19, 2015. The low was 20° but the high reached 49°. Nothing like that is likely in the near-term. Forecast uncertainty increases toward the end of the forecast period on the NBM: That's the period that the NBM has recently shown the most warming from its forecast of 12 hours ago.

Tomorrow and Monday will be unseasonably mild. Temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 60s. A few locations could reach 70° on Monday. Afterward, it will turn slightly cooler with readings in the upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday before temperatures again warm into the lower and middle 60s for the remainder of the work week. Dry conditions will likely persist through next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was +6.77 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.543 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.1° (1.2° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The end of October has been shifting warmer on the NBM over the past 12 runs.

Cirrus and cirrostratus clouds this morning.

Verification: Allentown: 32°; Actual: 30° Bridgeport: 38°; Actual: 39° Danbury: 31°; Actual: 30° Islip: 40°; Actual: 36° New York City-Central Park: 43°; Actual: 44° New York City-JFK Airport: 44°; Actual: 42° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45°; Actual: 48° Newark: 41°; Actual: 39° Poughkeepsie: 30°; Actual: 28° Westhampton: 34°; Actual: 28° White Plains: 37°; Actual: 39° Average Error: 2.4°

Many locations outside of New York City will be in the 30s tomorrow morning. New York City will likely be in the lower 40s. The NBM has been remarkably stable. 10/23/2026 23z NBM: Allentown: 32° Bridgeport: 38° Danbury: 31° Islip: 40° New York City-Central Park: 43° New York City-JFK Airport: 44° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 45° Newark: 41° Poughkeepsie: 30° Westhampton: 34° White Plains: 37° The AIFS (12z) shows 39° for Central Park. That's probably a bit too cool. The spread (standard devation) for tomorrow's high temperature has increased.