donsutherland1

I agree. Further drought relief would be beneficial.

A storm will bring rain and thunderstorms to the region through tomorrow. A storm total 2.00"-4.00" rainfall is likely, along with locally higher amounts. A general 0.50"-1.50" is likely across most of Long Island. Following the storm, Thursday and Friday will see a continuation of below normal readings. Temperatures could return to near seasonable levels for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -24.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.191 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The global mean surface temperature has now been at or above 17.0°C for seven consecutive days. That is tied for the second longest such stretch. Such temperatures are a very recent phenomenon, first occurring in 2023 on the ERA5 dataset. The ERA5 dataset goes back to January 1, 1940.

At what stage did you have it review the NCEI adjustment criteria? Did you assess the wording of the prompt? As noted in my comment, I do not believe you went to any of the extremes taken by the social media musician in question. I hope that you didn't take my reference to suggest or imply any kind of accusation. At work, I sometimes use AI to complement my analysis of information. AI is never a substitute (if it were, then automation, not augmentation is a better approach). My use of AI for complementary analytical purposes is taken from multiple angles, as I am very hesitant to influence the outcome. I am continually worried about unintended introduction of bias into the work. I am also concerned with AI sycophancy. I also know from speaking to some power users of AI (I'm not one), there's still a lot more to learn. And that doesn't even consider AI's rapid evolution. Indeed, OpenAI's Sam Altman suggested recently that some of the newer models being tested have either approached or reached singularity (we'll see if that's true once those models are released and examined more closely). In using AI to complement my own analysis, I am looking for blind spots/areas I might have missed, seeking expanded perspectives/interpretations, looking for subtle relationships among variables that might require further exploration, etc. In what is an iterative exercise, I've often found that even modest changes in the initial prompt followed by the same sequence of follow-ups can lead to fairly different outcomes. Use of different AI's (Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini) also can result in differences (each seems to have its own character so to speak). Ultimately, I view these differing outcomes as potential scenarios or conclusions (in weather terms, much like one views solutions from different ensemble members).

I don't have objections to his use of AI to assist with the analysis. But my read is that he essentially guided the AI to reach a desired conclusion concerning NCEI's "cooling". To illustrate how AI can be steered into erroneous conclusions, a climate contrarian and musician on X often engages in extreme misuse of AI (prompt injection and bullying based on the limited set of prompts he has posted e.g., he restricts the AI's to a strictly "first principles" analysis excluding substantial information then follows up asking that other things be excluded) to push multiple AI's into denying anthropogenic climate change. This case does not go to such extreme ends. My point is that one has to be careful when crafting prompts if one aims to reach strong, objective analytical outcomes. One can even ask AI to assess and revise the prompt before utilizing it. In my view, a better approach would have involved sharing the raw data for the stations, making no references to NCEI's adjustments in the prompt(s), sharing station move/TOBS information, other relevant information. etc. and then asking whether one could rely on the raw data, alone, over time to construct a representative or reliable long-term climate record. One could also ask the AI to provide an explanation/analysis and generate a reproducible methods section (assuming sufficient information is available). Afterward, if the output suggested that the raw data, alone, created a flawed climate record, one could upload the various papers describing NCEI's adjustments, and ask the AI to assess those adjustments, their impact on addressing the flaws in the climate record, etc.

The 7/28 0z HREF:

A storm will bring rain and possible thunderstorms to the region during Tuesday and Wednesday. The potential exists for a general 2.00"-4.00" rainfall with locally higher amounts. Following the storm, Thursday and Friday will see a continuation of below normal readings. Temperatures could return to near seasonable levels for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -31.27 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.804 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I also enjoyed the relatively cool summer. The winter that followed proved to be fantastic.

The 7/27/2026 12z HREF:

It's an interesting coincidence. There's really no close comparison. I also doubt that the coming winter will be a close comparison.

Yes, that's true.

Tomorrow will be fair and warm. A storm will bring rain and possible thunderstorms to the region during Tuesday and Wednesday. The potential exists for a general 1.00"-3.00" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. Following the storm, Thursday and Friday will see a continuation of below normal readings. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around July 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.82°C. The ongoing strong El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -31.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.391 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Gorgeous day at Central Park.

I forgot a third reason he likely isn't employed in his field of study, and it's probably the most significant one: Profound dishonesty. Ethics still matters in many professions. Here's the latest example: He refers to the following document: https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf Notice that this document was prepared in 1998. That is a decade after the IPCC was established. At that time, scientific understanding of contemporary climate change and the predominant role of human activities were far better understood. If one wants to find the IPCC's original purpose, one has to go back to the founding documents. That was UNGA Res. 43-53. Its original mission was not limited to human-induced climate change. It covered climate change in its entirety.

White Plains recorded its fourth consecutive low in the 50s. The last time that happened in July was during 2009. At that time, an El Niño was developing. Strong El Niño conditions are already present this year.