donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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The weekend will feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Sunday will see clouds break and the mercury rise toward 80°. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -32.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.236 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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In the wake of yesterday's heavy rain, I went out to Queens to get some photos on a day off. Below are six photos from Alley Pond and Oakland Lake.
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Yesterday's daily rainfall records: Islip: 3.27" (old record: 2.61", 2001) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 2.86" (old record: 1.31", 1963) Although overdone, it seems that yesterday's 12z HREF did quite well with the axis of heaviest rain occurring in the Nassau/Suffolk County areas.
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No. It would rank 13th. Below are the ten highest hourly amounts:
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The ongoing system has brought 1" or more hourly amounts of rain to numerous locations in the New York City area. Some locations include:
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Over the past hour, Central Park picked up 1.82" of rain. That is the highest hourly amount on any August 20th since hourly data was recorded. The old hourly mark was 0.63" from 1950. A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region into late tonight. The New York City area will see a general 2"-4" rainfall with local amounts of 5" by 8 am tomorrow. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the upper 70s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -35.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.061 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Hopefully, the guidance will be accurate and the heaviest rains will avoid your area and others that have recently experienced flooding.
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The August 20, 2026 12z HREF:
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The first 20 days of August have been the warmest on record globally on the ERA-5 dataset. Powered by fossil fuel-driven climate change and an ongoing strong El Niño, 2026 has now set 11 consecutive records. 2026 needs to average 16.578°C for the remainder of August to surpass the 2024 record. That appears very likely given the latest guidance.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
The distributions of Phoenix's warming summer high temperatures is shown below. Summer Mean High: 1961-1990: 104.3° 1991-2020: 105.4° 1996-2025: 105.9°
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A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. Parts of the region could experience flooding. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the lower 80s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -28.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Tomorrow should mainly fair and very warm. Highs will likely reach the middle 80s to perhaps upper 80s across the region. Another cold front could bring some showers or thundershowers to the region Wednesday night or Thursday. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Thursday and Friday could see highs in the lower 80s. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -22.21 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.388 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
donsutherland1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if there are multiple category 4 or above atmospheric rivers this winter. I think it's just impressive that the guidance is hinting at the development of the subtropical jet for the September-November period. That didn't even show up in the fall forecast during the weaker 2023-2024 El Niño. Details about placement are beyond what the guidance can simulate at such timeframes. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
donsutherland1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The latest C3S seasonal forecast shows the strong El Niño's growing influence on what will likely be a very active subtropical jet during the fall and at least the first half of winter.
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From this morning via iPhone:
