donsutherland1

September finished with a monthly mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City (Central Park). That was 0.8° below normal (1991-2020). The September 25-28 nor'easter that brought 3.10" of rainfall to Central Park was arguably the month's highlight event.

September is finishing with a mean temperature of 68.4° in New York City. That is 0.8° below normal (0.4° above the older 1981-2010 baseline). Tomorrow and Friday will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -10.52 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.423 today.

October DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 3.3 2.1 3.1

Tomorrow will see partly sunny skies, along with temperatures topping out in the lower and middle 70s. Thursday and Friday will be unseasonably warm days to mark the start of October. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. It will turn somewhat cooler during the weekend and a strong cold front will likely move across the region Sunday or Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -16.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.287 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.4° (0.8° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

With the nor'easter finally moving away, drier weather lies ahead. Already, the clouds are breaking across the region. Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see some sunshine along with warmer readings that will reach the lower and middle 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.1°C for the week centered around September 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.83°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -13.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.083 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 98% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Through 7 pm, New York City has picked up a storm total 2.44" of rain. Periods of rain, some of which could still be heavy are likely tonight After some early showers, tomorrow will begin to dry out. The temperature will rise into the middle and upper 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday could see some sunshine along with warmer readings in the lower and middle 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -14.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.051 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

It seems to have held up better than I had expected. I was relieved that the dunes weren't badly affected. Some photos from Robert Moses:

There has been a little sunshine at Robert Moses.

It's not subtropical, but it is warm core according to some of the data.

Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tonight through tomorrow night. New York City and nearby areas remain on course for a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island will likely see 2"-4" of rain with locally higher amounts. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are again likely tonight and tomorrow, especially at high tide. Winds could gust past 50 mph in the region. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. After some early showers, Monday will dry out. The temperature will rise into the upper 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday could see some sunshine along with warmer readings in the lower and middle 70s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -19.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.215 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.8° (0.4° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I'm very sorry to hear this. Hopefully, everyone is ok.

Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tonight through the weekend. New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island will likely see 3"-5" of rain with locally higher amounts. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph in the region. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -14.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.471 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will be see clouds increase. The probability of a significant impact on the immediate New York City area from a strong nor'easter has increased overnight and during the day today. Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tomorrow night through the weekend. At present, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island could see 3"-5" of rain. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Some uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. However, it increasingly appears that the storm will be an impactful one. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -12.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The 18z NBM:

IMO, the probability of a more significant impact in the NYC area has increased overnight. The uncertainty is lessening.