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Tomorrow will be briefly warmer with highs in the middle and upper 70s. Saturday will be unseasonably cool with highs only in the middle and upper 60s. Temperatures will return to the middle 70s on Sunday. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -23.11 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.041 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of blazing heat in France.

Some exceptional temperatures are being reached in parts of France today. National highs of 38.0°C or above in May: Villefranche: 40.0°C (104.0°F), May 29, 1947 Fitou: 38.4°C (101.1°F), May 28, 2026 (through 1 pm) Argeliers: 38.1°C (100.6°F), May 28, 2026 (through 1 pm) Lacanau: 38.0°C (100.4°F), May 19, 1958 Pissos: 38.0°C (100.4°F), May 27, 2005 Salindres: 38.0°C (100.4°F), May 29, 1947

It will then turn somewhat cooler for tomorrow through the weekend. The first week of June could also see temperatures average somewhat below normal to near noraml. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -6.34 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.625 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of extraordinary heat in France. So far, almost half of all primary and secondary stations in France have set new May monthly record high temperatures during the ongoing heatwave.

Tomorrow will see the temperature rise into the lower 80s across the region. It will then turn somewhat cooler for Thursday through the remainder of the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.359 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.6° (0.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Today was another day of insane climate change-driven heat in France. Nearly 400 monthly records were broken. 122 locations hit 35.0C (95.0F) or above while 27 reached 36C (96.8F) or above.

The models caught onto the European heatwave about five days before the event. The lead time wasn't great this time around.

A rose at the New York Botanical Garden:

Warmer temperatures lie ahead. The temperature will rise to above normal levels for tomorrow through Thursday. Exceptional heat is unlikely. It will turn somewhat cooler to end the week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.83°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -25.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.581 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The final numbers from today's historic heat in France:

It took awhile, but by last Tuesday, the models started to present a strong heat signal.

The Met Office has now published an account of today's historic May heat. That account can be found at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/provisional-spring-daily-temperature-record-as-heatwave-continues In terms of the impact of climate change, the Met Office explains: A climate attribution study published last summer by Met Office scientists found that the chances of surpassing the May temperature record have been increasing as our climate changes as a consequence of human greenhouse gas emissions. The study found that breaking the 32.8°C May record is around three times more likely now in our current climate than it would have been in a natural climate not impacted by greenhouse gas emissions. What was around a 1-in-100 year event is now around a 1-in-33 year event.

Today, London's Kew Gardens saw the temperature soar to 34.8°C (95°F). That demolished the UK's national May record of 32.8°C (91F) that had stood since 1944. The ongoing extreme heat was made much more likely by anthropogenic climate change. Across the British Channel, France saw more than 300 May monthly records set with 62 locations having reaching 95°F (35.0°C) or above. Final numbers from France will be available in a few hours.

A historic May heatwave is scorching parts of Europe, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Today, France saw 105 stations set new monthly records with 25 of those stations setting monthly records that had been set on Friday or yesterday. Tomorrow and Tuesday will likely be hotter. The UKs national May temperature record could be challenged or broken tomorrow and again on Tuesday. The extreme heat has been made more likely by climate change. Europe is currently experiencing a rate of warming that is twice the rate of the global average. From Climate Central's Climate Shift Index: