donsutherland1

The world is warmer than it has been and is continuing to warm largely due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Extreme cold periods are becoming warmer and less frequent than they once were. Nevertheless, that does not mean that such cold, when it occurs regionally, should be dismissed out-of-hand. The kind of sustained deep cold that has occurred in the Great Lakes Region and Northeast is uncommon today. It is not trivial. It is one of this winter's highlights. For example, New York City saw a 16-day mean temperature below 20° for the 125th time since record-keeping began in 1869. However, it was the first such occurrence since 1982. That was 44 years ago. That rarity makes it noteworthy. Moreover, it's plausible that at least some of us might not see such sustained and deep cold again during our lifetimes given how infrequent it has become. That places like Phoenix are on course for their warmest winter on record does not minimize the cold that has just occurred elsewhere. That it has occurred in a warmer and warming world makes it all the more remarkable.

The snow was blinding at times.

The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s. Tomorrow will see the temperature reach or exceed freezing. Wednesday will be even milder with the temperature topping out in the upper 30s. A cold front will likely cross the region, possibly touching off a few snow flurries or showers. It will turn somewhat cooler into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +4.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.895 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.2° (4.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.1° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

That's incorrect. The opposite is true. Winter/early spring is cold; it flips later spring/summer. Here are 500 mb anomalies and temperature anomalies for March Greenland blocks: Here are mean temperatures for NYC (1980-2025): March 1-15: NAO -0.50 or below: 39.3°; NAO +0.50 or above: 41.5° March 16-31: NAO -0.50 or below: 43.3°; NAO +0.50 or above: 46.4° Finally, what does AI say about the posted map under discussion? Here's ChatGPT 5.2's response: Gemini's Output:

That's quite worrisome, especially when it comes to science. Science is truly at the cutting edge of knowledge creation and, if expertise is watered down, it will have an adverse impact on that outcome.

I'm interested in his track record. Anyone can put up a .WX on social media, create sites, or apps and "forecast." And, models and ensembles have virtually no skill at the lead time involved. Finally, there's no verification of past claims. The reason I ask, is because he is wrong when it comes to early spring (the transitional period) and Greenland blocking. For both the first and second halves of March (late winter/eaely spring transition), Greenland blocking results in cooler conditions in the East. Getting the basics wrong is a red flag. I am not suggesting right now that March will be cold or warm. I am focusing on the narrower point that Greenland blocking leads to a colder March outcome, not a warmer one.

March 2012 was defined by a lack of Greenland blocking. The NAO was positive on 27 of the 31 days and never strongly negative.

Source: Facebook meteorologist. https://www.facebook.com/MikeCollierWx/posts/a-few-days-ago-i-mentioned-the-potential-for-a-colder-pattern-by-mid-february-ti/1421647855979147/ Does anyone know his track record?

And here are the most common high-low combinations for New York City:

Negativity bias is real. People often assume that their "crystal ball" is clearer at longer lead times when adverse outcomes (e.g., lack of snowfall) are involved. Psychologically, people tend to give greater weight to negative outcomes than positive ones. Those threats appear clearer or more certain, because they generate stronger cognitive or emotional reaction. In reality, the extended range forecasts showing a bleak outcome for snowfall are no more or less likely to verify than those that show a lot of snowfall at similar ranges. Guidance beyond 10 days has a sharp falloff in skill. Having said that, the frequency of days with significant (6" or above) snowfall declines in New York City, especially after mid-March. Moreover, just over one-in-four years (26.8%) saw no measurable snowfall during February 15-28 but only 3.1% of years (1878, 1925, 2002, 2012, 2020) saw no measurable snowfall from February 15 to the end of snow season. At the current lead time, it is premature to assume that Winter 2025-2026 has seen its last measurable snowfall.

With a 16-day mean temperature of 19.7°, New York City experienced its coldest 16-day period since January 10-25, 1982 and its first sub-20° 16-day period since January 11-26, 1982.

The coldest day of Winter 2025-2026 is now going into the books. Tomorrow will start very cold, but the afternoon will be less harsh as readings climb into the middle and upper 20s. The temperature will reach or exceed freezing on Tuesday. The persistent and often severely cold pattern is poised to break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February, even as milder readings return. After mid-month, highs could begin to reach the lower 40s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +0.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.397 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.0° (4.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.8°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

Near there. Hudson River Greenway near 158th Street.

January 24-February 8, 2026 is on track to record a 16-day mean temperature below 20° in Central Park. The last time that happened was outside the life span of many AmWx members: January 11-26, 1982.

Here are the 16-day stretches with mean temperatures below 20° beginning with Winter 1975-76. I haven't added 2025-26, because the value isn't final, but it will come in between 19.7° and 19.9°.