donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday or Thursday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.152 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Thank you for the kind words.
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Following heavy morning thunderstorms, the afternoon turned partly sunny and pleasantly warm. Photographers came out to the New York Botanical Garden to capture the flowers. Four photos from today:
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Heavy thunderstorms brought hourly rainfall of 1.25" at Newark and 1.44" at Bridgeport. Bridgeport saw 2.36" of rain through 5 pm with 2.34" falling in a two-hour period). That broke its daily mark of 1.69" from 1970. Tomorrow through Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -14.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.426 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Bridgeport picked up 1.44" (36.6 mm) of rain in the past hour. That is tied for its 5th heaviest hourly August rainfall. Today, it has picked up 2.35" (59.7 mm) of rain breaking its daily mark of 1.69" (42.9 mm) from 1970. 2.34" (59.4 mm) has fallen in the past two hours. Heavy rain has moved into New Haven.
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Bridgeport has now received 1.79" (45.5 mm) of rain. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" (42.9 mm) of rain that was set in 1970.
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The thunderstorms that dumped hourly rainfall of 0.95" at LaGuardia Airport and 1.25" at Newark, have produced 0.90" at Bridgeport in the past hour.
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Newark had hourly rainfall of 1.25" (1.41" so far today). Flash flooding was reported in the vicinity of Newark Airport. LaGuardia picked up 0.95" rain in an hour and 1.44" over two hours. Despite the theoretical estimate that storm drains in the New York City Area can handle 1.75"/hour rainfall, the practical reality is that once hourly amounts approach or reach 1.00"/hour, flooding begins to occur. That parts of New York City have seen flooding as per social media and Newark experienced flash flooding this morning is another illustrative case that the practical capacity is lower than the theoretical capacity.
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Parts of the region will see some showers or thundershowers tonight into the first half of tomorrow. Afterward, clouds will break and the mercury rise toward 80° tomorrow. Monday through Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -30.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.316 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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The weekend will feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Sunday will see clouds break and the mercury rise toward 80°. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -32.71 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.236 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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In the wake of yesterday's heavy rain, I went out to Queens to get some photos on a day off. Below are six photos from Alley Pond and Oakland Lake.
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Yesterday's daily rainfall records: Islip: 3.27" (old record: 2.61", 2001) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 2.86" (old record: 1.31", 1963) Although overdone, it seems that yesterday's 12z HREF did quite well with the axis of heaviest rain occurring in the Nassau/Suffolk County areas.
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No. It would rank 13th. Below are the ten highest hourly amounts:
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The ongoing system has brought 1" or more hourly amounts of rain to numerous locations in the New York City area. Some locations include:
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Over the past hour, Central Park picked up 1.82" of rain. That is the highest hourly amount on any August 20th since hourly data was recorded. The old hourly mark was 0.63" from 1950. A slow-moving cold front will likely bring showers or thundershowers to the region into late tonight. The New York City area will see a general 2"-4" rainfall with local amounts of 5" by 8 am tomorrow. The frontal passage will be followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air. Friday could see highs in the upper 70s with some additional showers or thundershowers. The weekend could feature cool and perhaps unsettled weather. The greatest chance for rain will be on Saturday. Somewhat cooler than normal weather will then extend into at least the middle of next week. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -35.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.061 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
