donsutherland1

Today, Bridgeport, New York City (Central Park), and White Plains recorded highs of 66° and lows of 43°. Today is the first day on record that all three stations had identical high and low temperatures.

Unseasonable warmth will prevail through much of the first week of November. Parts of the region will likely reach or exceed 70° tomorrow through Thursday. Dry conditions will likely persist until late in the week. The potential exists for a 1.00" or greater rainfall Friday into Saturday. Behind the storm, cooler but not especially cold air will move into the region during the weekend or early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C. ENSO Region 1+2 breaks the all-time record while 3.4 ties the all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will peak either this month or December. The SOI was -17.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.384 today.

Thank you for the very kind words.

El Niño Regions 1+2 (+5.4C anomaly) and 3 (+4.4C anomaly) set new weekly records for the week centered around October 28th. Region 3.4 (+3.4C anomaly) tied its weekly record that had been set during the prior week. Despite some social media chatter of a "weakening" El Niño, the ongoing event is continuing to strengthen. It will likely peak this month or next month. It will also likely be the dominant influence on the hemispheric pattern for December, January and maybe February. The biggest wildcards concern whether meaningful blocking develops late in the winter (possibly allowing for one big snowstorm as occurred during 1982-83 and 2015-16), the degree and rate of weakening following El Niño's November/December peak, and whether the stratospheric polar vortex will recover from the forecast sudden stratospheric warming event then lock in for much of the winter. Yesterday's November monthly record rainfall in parts of Arizona, including Flagstaff where records go back to 1898, and today's extreme rainfall in parts of Florida have been, in part, aided by El Niño's enhanced moisture and subtropical jet. This aspect is likely to play out throughout much of the winter with a high degree of confidence. Artwork generated to illustrate El Niño's rising impact.

The preliminary global mean surface temperature for October 31 was 14.980C. That would break the daily mark of 14.831C from 2024. October 2026 finished as the warmest October on record. Following the record warm October, 2026 ranks as the second warmest year on record (ERA-5).

Unseasonable warmth will prevail through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late in the week. The potential exists for a 1.00" or greater rainfall Friday into Saturday. Behind the storm, cooler but not especially cold air will move into the region during the weekend or early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -3.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.277 today.

The first illustration is a table from a spreadsheet. The second is a visualization I no run through ChatGPT. I attach the earlier visualization I had created and simply ask it to update the image with the October data,which I provide it.

Six photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the annual Chrysanthemum show opened today:

The October 2026 summary in New York City:

Mean First 32° or Below in NYC: 1961-1990: November 11 1991-2020: November 20 2000-2025: November 21

October is finishing with a mean temperature of 59.1° (1.2° above normal) in New York City. That was also 2.2° above the earlier 1981-2010 baseline. Temperatures will rebound to the 60s tomorrow. Unseasonable warmth will continue through much of the first week of November. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Some of the guidance suggests the potential for a 1.00" or greater rainfall next Thursday into Friday. Overall, the preponderance of seasonal guidance suggests that November will be warmer to much warmer than normal across the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +5.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C. ENSO Region 3.4 breaks the all-time record most recently set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -4.97 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.945 today.

November is poised to get off to a balmy start in the New York City area. However, around November 10th +/- few days it could turn briefly cooler. That shows up on the latest ECMWF ensembles. It is also consistent with the weekly guidance. The biggest uncertainty concerns the forecast weakening/possible split of the polar vortex toward mid-November. However, the ensembles favor a rapid recovery suggesting that the effects could be short-lived. Meanwhile a historically strong El Niño continues to strengthen. It will likely peak in November or possibly December.

I suspect that this is how things will play out. Historic experience with strong El Niño events, flood of Pacific air into North America, seasonal timing of the SSW (anecdotally, it seems that the polar vortex is able to recover more quickly with earlier SSW events, possibly due to the seasonal transition; during mid-winter one is dealing with a more stable regime). Moreover, the El Niño event continues to strengthen.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +3.5 +2.7 +2.2 +5.3 +2.0 +0.9 +2.7 +0.2 +3.0

Here's the composite outcome for an AO-/EPO- pattern for the November 15-December 15 period: Nevertheless, there is an unpleasant warmer cluster: If North America is flooded with Pacific Air courtesy of the ongoing strong El Niño and/or the EPO-/AO- fails to develop, warmer outcomes would be on the table. One clue might be how much warmth is in Canada 5-10 days before the forecast period. If Canada is largely covered by warm anomalies, particularly within five days of the development of the EPO-/AO- pattern, that has often been a precursor to the warmer cluster.