donsutherland1

The system responsible for today's showers and periods of rain will slowly move away from the region tonight and tomorrow. As a result, clouds will break tomorrow morning and a partly to mostly sunny afternoon will follow. Temperatures will return to the upper 70s tomorrow and then rise further into the lower 80s on Friday. The warmer spots could see some middle 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend with another warmup possible starting early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +4.93 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.179 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

For New York City, the connection isn't as strong. Since 2000, a wet fall is more likely to be followed by a wet winter. Dry falls were only slightly more likely to be followed by wet winters (using the 1991-2020 baselines) for New York City (Central Park). Drier than Normal Falls: 54.5% were followed by above-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2024/Winter 2024-2025) 45.5% were followed by below-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2017/Winter 2017-2018) Wetter than Normal Falls: 61.5% were followed by above-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2023/Winter 2023-2024) 38.5% were followed by below-normal winter precipitation (Last: Fall 2022/Winter 2022-2023)

Picard, My data comes mainly from: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ I periodically use teleconnections data: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ and Climate Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/ Most of this data can readily be downloaded or converted into .CSV and .XLSX files

He's done invaluable work. I share your sentiments.

If one is looking for an idea of the warmest potential for any winter (month, season, or year) in the current climate regime (defined as the most recent 30 periods e.g. winters), one can come up with confidence intervals from a linear regression equation. A 1-in-1,000 year probability for the current regime would be the 99.9% confidence interval. For NYC, that value for a winter mean temperature is currently 44.8° (record is 41.6°, in 2001-02). The coefficient of determination for NYC is 0.545. Recently, though, some cities have seen months or even seasons breach this threshold e.g., July 2023 in Phoenix.

It seems quite bizarre, especially with the embedded simulated radar image from a snowstorm that almost certainly won't be equaled during any of our lifetimes in the Deep South.

Latest HREF:

Joe Bastardi is arguing that the current nor'easter that has dumped more than 3" of rain at Norfolk over the past two days with gusts of 50 mph should be counted as a tropical cyclone: The flaw in his reasoning is that the system has fronts. Thus, it is not a tropical cyclone.

A strong nor'easter was bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Middle Atlantic region late this afternoon. Through 4 pm, Norfolk had picked up 2.14" of rain. The wind has gusted to 44 mph there. This storm will bring some showers and periods of rain tomorrow into Thursday. The Delmarva and Jersey Shore will see the heaviest amounts. There, 1.00" or above amounts are likely. The temperature will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow. Readings will likely return to the upper 70s on Thursday and the lower 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -2.20 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.002 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

So far, rainfall is running above the guidance in a number of locations through 18z.

The 9/16 12z HREF:

I agree. I don't think it's non-viable. I just don't think it's the slam dunk some are making it out to be.

Belmar and perhaps Staten Island could see an inch. I think amounts will be less on Long Island, though.

I haven't looked closely at all the details at this time given how much can change. It is a better North Pacific match than 2013-14, at least right now. It wasn't a bad winter, either.

Coastal low is a broad term for the system. Nor'easters are coastal lows.