donsutherland1

Tomorrow and Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the middle and upper in most of the region. Records will likely be challenged tomorrow. Daily Records for April 15: Albany: 86°, 2003 Bridgeport: 81°, 1960 Hartford: 88°, 1941 Islip: 78°, 2002, 2024 New York City-Central Park: 87°, 1941 New York City-JFK Airport: 80°, 1960, 2002, 2006 New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86°, 1941 Newark: 88°, 1960 Philadelphia: 88°, 1941 White Plains: 83°, 1960 Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. It will turn cooler on Sunday. A sharp cold shot is possible early next week. Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.087 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.6° (2.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Atlantic City reached 88° so far. That breaks the daily record of 86° from 1945.

An early summer preview is getting underway... Tomorrow through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -15.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (3.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

An early summer preview lies ahead. Tomorrow will turn much warmer with temperatures surging into the middle 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could approach 80°. Tuesday through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -17.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Although readings were confined to the lower and middle 50s, the signs of spring are everywhere. From the New York Botanical Garden:

Great observation.

The signal for record heat in the Mid-Atlantic into the New York City area on Wednesday has increased. The latest ECMWF EFI guidance:

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. Afterward, much warmer weather will develop on Monday. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -27.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.933 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The Newark list is can be found using Newark Airport. I am not sure why it wasn’t added to the Newark area option.

Next week is on course to feature the warmest weather so far this season. Central Park's April 15th daily record of 87° from 1941 and Newark's daily record of 88° from 1960 could be challenged. Tuesday through Thursday will likely see highs in the 80s in the New York City region. Highs will reach the 70s on Long Island, but Islip could make a run at 80° on Wednesday (daily record: 78°, 2002 and 2024) if the onset of the sea breeze is delayed.

A warming trend is underway. Temperatures will top out in the 60s tomorrow and then upper 50s on Sunday. It will then turn much warmer next week. Temperatures will likely peak near or above 80° during Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -33.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.117 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

A warming trend is commencing. Temperatures will return to the 60s tomorrow. The warmth will extend into the weekend. It could turn even warmer next week with temperatures peaking near or even above 80° during Tuesday through Thursday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -32.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.247 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.5° (2.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

This morning's low temperature in Central Park was 30°. That will likely be the last freeze this season. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 50s tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn warmer to end the week and start the weekend. Temperatures will return to the 60s on Friday. The warmth will extend into the weekend. It could turn even warmer next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -17.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.494 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.0° (2.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Central Park had a low of 30° this morning. Yesterday, Bridgeport, Islip, and Central Park had identical high and low temperatures (56°-32°). The last time that occurred was December 25, 2022 when all three locations had highs and lows of 28°-14°.

Yes. Typos.