donsutherland1
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About donsutherland1
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
I will repost what I posted on X in response to Martz's deflection, "I was not aware that climate change causes earthquakes and mudslides." The opening sentence fits. My response: "The CFACT policy analyst again shows how little he knows. A large chunk of melting glacier plunged into a valley, creating the 5.2 shock and triggering the devastating mudslide. Tectonic processes were not involved. Glaciers are melting due to climate change." It should be noted that Martz dishonestly posted his claim hours after the USGS made clear that the shaking was the result of a glacial collapse and debris flow, not the cause of those events. The USGS update was carried widely in the reporting on the catastrophe. In other words, he deliberately chose to mislead in order to push a false narrative. -
Showers and thunderstorms are likely into early tonight. Some areas could still see flooding downpours. Following the frontal passage, tomorrow through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -9.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.553 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Nonsensical social media claims are circulating that the Nepal/Tibet glacial flood was caused by an earthquake, not the impact of a warm summer and climate change. The USGS made clear that the shaking was caused by the glacial collapse/debris flow, not the trigger for those events. Two useful papers following the glacial flood in Nepal/Tibet. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818126002766 https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/1889/2021/ Despite social media claims, July had been warmer to much warmer than normal and August 24th had been warmer than normal. Some modestly cooler than normal air moved in on August 25th, but the stresses of long-term glacial thinning due to a warming climate and the impact of what has been a very warm summer proved too much for the glacier responsible. July 2026 Monthly Anomalies: August 24, 2026 Anomalies:
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Showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow into tomorrow night. Some areas could see flooding downpours. Highs will top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Following the frontal passage, Friday through Monday will see highs reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. It could turn somewhat warmer to end August and start September. However, no excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and into the opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -10.99 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.645 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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August 2026 continues to close on the monthly temperature record. The gap is now larger than 0.1°C. The daily mark has fallen for 17 consecutive days, the fourth longest such streak. All of the four longest streaks and 15 of the 16 longest ones have occurred since 2023. The single exception is February 24-March 7, 2016 (13 days), which is in a three-way tie for 7th longest.
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Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August and opening days of September. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -6.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.425 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (0.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Tomorrow and Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday or Thursday night. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.6°C for the week centered around August 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.43°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -7.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.152 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (near normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Thank you for the kind words.
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Following heavy morning thunderstorms, the afternoon turned partly sunny and pleasantly warm. Photographers came out to the New York Botanical Garden to capture the flowers. Four photos from today:
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Heavy thunderstorms brought hourly rainfall of 1.25" at Newark and 1.44" at Bridgeport. Bridgeport saw 2.36" of rain through 5 pm with 2.34" falling in a two-hour period). That broke its daily mark of 1.69" from 1970. Tomorrow through Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -14.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.426 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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Bridgeport picked up 1.44" (36.6 mm) of rain in the past hour. That is tied for its 5th heaviest hourly August rainfall. Today, it has picked up 2.35" (59.7 mm) of rain breaking its daily mark of 1.69" (42.9 mm) from 1970. 2.34" (59.4 mm) has fallen in the past two hours. Heavy rain has moved into New Haven.
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Bridgeport has now received 1.79" (45.5 mm) of rain. That breaks the daily record of 1.69" (42.9 mm) of rain that was set in 1970.
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The thunderstorms that dumped hourly rainfall of 0.95" at LaGuardia Airport and 1.25" at Newark, have produced 0.90" at Bridgeport in the past hour.
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Newark had hourly rainfall of 1.25" (1.41" so far today). Flash flooding was reported in the vicinity of Newark Airport. LaGuardia picked up 0.95" rain in an hour and 1.44" over two hours. Despite the theoretical estimate that storm drains in the New York City Area can handle 1.75"/hour rainfall, the practical reality is that once hourly amounts approach or reach 1.00"/hour, flooding begins to occur. That parts of New York City have seen flooding as per social media and Newark experienced flash flooding this morning is another illustrative case that the practical capacity is lower than the theoretical capacity.
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Parts of the region will see some showers or thundershowers tonight into the first half of tomorrow. Afterward, clouds will break and the mercury rise toward 80° tomorrow. Monday through Wednesday will be mostly sunny and pleasantly cool days. Highs will generally top out in the upper 70s. Showers and thundershowers could move through the region on Thursday. Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s into next weekend. No excessive heat appears likely through the remainder of August. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.7°C for the week centered around August 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.32°C. The ongoing strong El Niño, which has reached super El Niño threshold, will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -30.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.316 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.9° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
