donsutherland1

A cooling trend is getting underway and it will culminate in a sharp cold shot early next week. tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the upper 60s. Sunday will be even cooler with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A sharp cold shot is likely early next week. Highw will reach the middle 50s, while low temperatures fall into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least tomorrow. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. No significant rainfall appears likely through the foreseeable future. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +14.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.178 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (2.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Personally, I think the modeling may be somewhat too cool for the second half of April, but the ECMWF weeklies show cooler than normal conditions for the April 20-30 period. In addition, a strong cold shot lies ahead for early next week. One or two days will likely to see readings approach or reach 10° below normal. Outside NYC, some areas could experience a late-season freeze. In mathematical terms, one would not need near record cold to reach the figure from the guidance (overnight the guidance ticked up a few tenths of a degree). If one took all the readings to date and assumed that the remainder of the month would average normal, one would come up with a 56.6° mean. Normal for April 17-30 is 56.8°. Since 2020, five years have had a cooler April 17-30. As for 2023, April 1-16 had a mean temperature of 59.9°. That was much warmer than April 1-16, 2026. This year's mean temperature was 56.4°. Finally, the probability is based on a normal distribution. Part of the region under the curve is still below normal at this point in time based on the standard deviation. Although I would be quite shocked were April to wind up cooler than normal overall, that doesn't mean that a statistical probability of such an outcome doesn't exist, even if it's low. The stated probability means that a warmer than normal April is very likely.

Temperatures approached and reached record levels across parts of the region yet again today. Central Park registered a high of 89°. Newark reached 90°. Daily records were set at Atlantic City (91°), Baltimore (91°), Norfolk (92°), and Philadelphia (91°). Readings will return to the upper 70s to around 80° tomorrow, upper 60s on Saturday and upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday. A sharp cold shot is possible early next week. Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least Saturday. Some showers or thundershowers are possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was +1.51 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.115 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.4° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

1990 had a peak high of 95°. The mean temperature was 74.7° vs. 75.0° in 1977. Both summers were in the top third overall through 1990. A similar kind of summer would be warmer today.

With today's 90° high in Central Park, 2026 became only the third year on record with a high of 80° or above in March and a high of 90° or above in April. The only prior years were 1977 and 1990.

Temperatures approached and reached record levels across parts of the region. Records included: Baltimore: 91° (old record: 88°, 1941) Bridgeport: 82° (old record: 81°, 1960) Hartford: 87° (old record: 88°, 1941) Islip: 81° (old record: 78°, 2002, 2024) New York City-Central Park: 90° (old record: 87°, 1941) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 88° (old record: 86°, 1941) Newark: 91°(old record: 88°, 1960) Philadelphia: 91° (old record: 88°, 1941) Washington, DC: 90° (old record: 89°, 1941) White Plains: 87° (old record: 83°, 1960) Tomorrow will be another summerlike day. Temperatures will likely peak in the upper 80s in most of the region. The hot spots could approach or reach 90°. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. It will turn cooler on Sunday. A sharp cold shot is possible early next week. Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.45 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.814 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.3° (2.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow and Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the middle and upper in most of the region. Records will likely be challenged tomorrow. Daily Records for April 15: Albany: 86°, 2003 Bridgeport: 81°, 1960 Hartford: 88°, 1941 Islip: 78°, 2002, 2024 New York City-Central Park: 87°, 1941 New York City-JFK Airport: 80°, 1960, 2002, 2006 New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86°, 1941 Newark: 88°, 1960 Philadelphia: 88°, 1941 White Plains: 83°, 1960 Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. It will turn cooler on Sunday. A sharp cold shot is possible early next week. Generally dry conditions will also persist through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -9.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.087 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.6° (2.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Atlantic City reached 88° so far. That breaks the daily record of 86° from 1945.

An early summer preview is getting underway... Tomorrow through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -15.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.659 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (3.1° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

An early summer preview lies ahead. Tomorrow will turn much warmer with temperatures surging into the middle 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots could approach 80°. Tuesday through Thursday will feature exceptional early season warmth. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s on all three days in most of the region. Records could be challenged on Wednesday. Some of the guidance suggests that the hot spots could approach or reach 90° during the height of the warmth. Long Island will be cooler with highs peaking in the 70s due to onshore breezes. However, there is a chance that Islip could approach or reach 80° on Wednesday. Following the bout of early season heat, readings will return to the 70s to end the week and start the weekend. Dry conditions will also persist. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -17.67 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 4.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Although readings were confined to the lower and middle 50s, the signs of spring are everywhere. From the New York Botanical Garden:

Great observation.

The signal for record heat in the Mid-Atlantic into the New York City area on Wednesday has increased. The latest ECMWF EFI guidance:

Tomorrow will be a bit cooler with highs in the 50s. Afterward, much warmer weather will develop on Monday. Temperatures will likely peak in the 80s Tuesday through Thursday. No rain is likely through at least next Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through at least mid-spring. The SOI was -27.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.933 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.7° (3.0° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The Newark list is can be found using Newark Airport. I am not sure why it wasn’t added to the Newark area option.