donsutherland1

I sure hope not.

I'm sorry to read about the counterproductive nature of a deleted post here. I believe it's fantastic that meteorologists such as @brooklynwx99 share their thoughts, insights, and expertise here. Their time is valuable. Their freely sharing thoughts and exchanging ideas in the forums and subforums is highly generous. They are under no obligation to do so. Their contributions make AmericanWx more than a mere discussion board. If one disagrees with a participant's ideas, there are respectful ways to express dissent, if one feels the need to do so. Civility is not difficult. Moreover, one is always free to offer his or her own ideas. In most professional settings, the existence of differing views is a powerful organizational asset. Moreover, because organizational culture is intangible in nature, it can be a tremendous and sustainable source of competitive advantage. After all, when employees and teams feel comfortable in sharing their ideas, are sufficiently mature to respect differences in thinking, and focused on the larger organizational goals, which drive them to develop common solutions by leveraging the full range of thinking, they tend to be better problem-solvers, more creative, more productive, and more satisfied. The company also tends to do better on financial and non-financial metrics than would otherwise be the case. Everyone has blind spots. A larger range of ideas can fill those spots and also help one improve one's own thinking. Certainly, many of the posts, meteorologists and other members here have allowed me to do so. I can never thank them enough.

An orderly pattern progression remains underway. In the extended range, that progression should culminate in a return to colder weather with persistently below normal temperatures. A storm heading through the Great Lakes will bring rain tomorrow into early Sunday. A general 0.50"-1.00" rainfall appears likely across much of the region. Through the middle of next week, highs will generally reach the 40s during the daytime and 30s for lows in New York City. Somewhat colder readings are likely outside the City and in areas where strong radiational cooling takes place. After the middle of next week, temperatures will "step down" with highs mainly in the middle and upper 30s in New York City and lows in the middle and upper 20s. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +4.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.466 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.4° (-0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Like you, I expect that a shift in ENSO should break the drought/persistent dryness.

Although the events are still outside ability of the operational guidance to reliably resolve the synoptic details, the 12z guidance continues to be encouraging. It it consistent with the ongoing and incredibly orderly pattern evolution that has been underway since the start of January. In that evolution, cold should begin to return next week. Afterward, as the PNA rises, opportunities for snowfall should begin to increase. As noted previously, both severe cold and significant snowfall are unlikely through at least mid-January. The transition to a more wintry pattern probably won't be completed by then. But shortly afterward, the probability of snowfall should increase. The probability of moderate or significant snowfalls would be higher if a PNA+ can develop and then be sustained. Arctic air might begin to get involved around or after January 20th. The overall consensus in the guidance is that a general WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern will develop just after mid-month. Such patterns in combination with a PNA+ are 1.7 times more likely to see one or more days with a 4" or above snowfall than when combined with a PNA-. Regardless of the state of the PNA, those patterns have seen measurable snowfall nearly once every five days, which is 1.6X climatology (1980-2025). As for the 12z GFS's systems during the roughly 168-hour and 222-hour timeframes, it's far too soon to resolve details. That there's activity is sufficient. In general, if things progress as has often occurred during the kind of pattern evolution described above, a delay in the first event would allow the trough more time to sharpen before the storm's development/arrival. That would increase prospects of its having a more impactful track than shown on the 12z GFS. The second system, as things currently stands, likely has the higher probability of taking an impactful track. Although its solution is different, the latter timeframe has support from the GGEM. Model skill at that timeframe is low. For now, it's more useful to stick with the overall pattern progression described above, avoid speculating over synoptic details that the guidance cannot resolve at these timeframes, and leave the details concerning potential events for later. That there's potential is what's both important and encouraging.

Social media noise about pattern chaos and dramatic shifts in social media videos notwithstanding, I am impressed how drama-free and orderly the pattern progression has been so far this month. The East was supposed to experience a thaw of about a week or so. That's playing out nicely. Afterward, a gradual transition toward colder but not severely cold weather was expected to occur. That's poised to play out. Most of the southern tier with the exception of the Southwest where a well-signaled intrusion of cold is now underway, was expected to stay mild. It has. Going forward, the progression toward cold from the Great Lakes to the Northeast (Mid-Atlantic and New England) remains on course. No significant Arctic outbreaks or snowstorms are likely through mid-month. Afterward, there is potential for the cold pattern to become snowy, but that's where the largest uncertainty rests. If the PNA undergoes a regime change to predominantly positive values near or after mid-month, prospects for East Coast snowstorms would increase. If not, frequent, but smaller snowfalls would be the norm. An WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern is generally cold regardless of the PNA except in the Southeast (PNA+ is cold). By the end of this weekend, one should have higher confidence in the PNA evolution. Historically, a regime change is favored following the break in long-duration winter PNA- periods. But one cannot rule out a more unusual situation where the PNA only briefly goes positive before returning to its mainly negative state. However, extended range PNA forecasts which have low skill are insufficient. Overall, January still appears on course for a colder than normal outcome from the Great Lakes to New England. The southern tier from the desert southwest across to the Southeast will likely wind up with warm anomalies. Cold shots will still be possible, particularly in the Southeast as the month advances. Finally, with respect to the La Niña, the atmosphere remains well-coupled. The AAM- is powerful proof that things remain coupled. Nevertheless, the La Niña continues to fade, and that process will continue through the winter. Weekly figures could begin to reach values just below La Niña threshold during late January. A significant WWB is possible this month. If it occurs, it would be unusual but not unprecedented. One such WWB occurred during Winter 2016-17. That a WWB might occur won't necessarily mean that February has to be cold. February 2017 wound up being exceptionally warm. I do not expect that scenario this time around. The full range of variables easing influence of ENSO, teleconnections, etc., will determine the February 2026 outcome.

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures. A few showers are possible tomorrow. A more significant rainfall is likely Saturday into Sunday. Then, rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". The work week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region tomorrow. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +3.54 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.167 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Of course. WPO-/EPO- can force cold outcomes even with a positive AO and NAO. But if one is referring only to the general AO/NAO state, positive states are typically warmer, not colder regardless of ENSO. Other variables weren’t noted.

Cold is not favored in the East during February AO+/NAO+ dates. Nearly two thirds are warmer than normal.

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures. Some rain is likely Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". The week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region on Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January. Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.377 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.7° (at normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Great find, Tip. The underlying paper is here for anyone looking for a quick link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09895-y

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. During the 2016-2017 weak La Niña event, which collapsed in January, there was also a powerful WWB. Indeed, the SOI plunged to -33.54 on January 19th. It remains to be seen if that WWB will actually be rivaled, much less surpassed. The 2016-17 La Niña had two days in January where the SOI was -30 or below. No other La Niña event had even one. However, daily SOI values only go back to 1991. February 2017 was truly a "torch" in much of the eastern half of the U.S. I'm not expecting anything along those lines. But the idea that a cold or very cold outcome for February is a "slam dunk" following a powerful January WWB should it occur as modeled, is probably too simplistic. As noted above, 2016-17 saw the opposite outcome. A rapidly weakening La Niña would become less of a factor in influencing patterns. As that happens, other variables, many of which cannot be forecast at current lead times, will gain importance. This competition among variables could lead to large variability on a week-to-week basis. The changeable outcome on the extended range of the ECMWF weeklies may be offering an early hint of that variability. For now, at least based on past late-stage weak La Niña events, the best chances for monthly cold anomalies likely are the Plains States, Great Lakes Region, and eastward into the Northeast. Cold anomalies from the Southwest eastward through the Southeast would be far less likely.

The signal for a PNA+ (a rarity since December 1) has grown stronger on the GEFS. Should a PNA+ develop and then be sustained, opportunities for moderate or larger snowfalls would increase, especially around or after mid-month.

Editing suggestion: Glass is really half empty for you

I didn't comment in detail on this due to having the flu. This outcome doesn't surprise me much. It seems that they continue to have a tendency to swing for the fences (likely in pursuit of clicks/views). Hype prevails on social media, because there is no meaningful consequence for failure. There is no verification. If one is looking for reasonable idea where it's going to be warmer or colder than normal, taking the consensus of the top 5-10 AmWx monthly forecasters in the nine-city contest run by @Roger Smith would generally beat BAM and probably most of the social media forecasters on a regular basis. No one in the AmWx contest is seeking clicks/views. Thus, there is no incentive to hype. That creates a stronger foundation for robust and objective forecasting. January will likely provide a nice example. BAM went cold for the SE. The AmWx forecast was warm (consensus forecasts for Atlanta were +1.3° for the top 5 and +1.4° for the top 10.