donsutherland1

Today's highs: Bridgeport: 62° Islip: 61° New Haven: 61° New York City: 62° Newark: 65° White Plains: 64°

Depending on how well it does, I will attempt to pull other locations. Snowfall will be interesting, as 10:1 is too simple and Kuchera often leads to inflated amounts. Bufkit uses Cobb, so that's a possibility. Whether it can be integrated given what's available from the ECMWF remains to be seen. FYI, the 12z run showed a low of 41° at MPO for tomorrow (NBM is 37°).

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend into at least early next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -42.87 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.585 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Yes. It will be interesting to see how it fares in coming days.

As a further test of the new higher-resolution ECMWF, I pulled the data for today's high temperatures for select NYC area locations. This data is also from the 10/21 0z cycle. It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

Yesterday, the ECMWF announced, "A finer 0.1° resolution is now published alongside the existing 0.25°, for the IFS streams (the AIFS streams remain 0.25° only). It is produced from the same high-resolution (~9 km) forecast." So, how did the new higher-resolution map perform with regard to this morning's low temperatures in the NYC area? The 10/21 0z run did quite well with one exception. Preliminary Lows: October 21, 2026: Bridgeport: 49° Islip: 50° New York City: 50° Newark: 48° White Plains: 41° (off by 4°)

The remainder of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. Friday will be briefly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 50s, but temperatures will likely return to the lower 60s for the weekend. Dry conditions are likely through the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -35.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.237 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Next time I'm at the NYBG, I'll check where the peace rose bush is. If I recall correctly, it's at the north side of the rose garden. The rose I photographed was near the center.

There may have been a mild inversion, which explains the slightly warmer readings at MPO.

Interesting information. The NYBG labeled it 'Mother of Pearl.'

Temperatures are now moderating. Most of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. A strong storm will stay too offshore to bring rain to the region this week. Some elevated high tides are possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.12°C. ENSO Region 3.4 ties the all-time record set in the prior week. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -30.17 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.902 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.7° (0.8° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.8° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sunny but chilly October day. The hummingbird migration appears to be completed.

This morning was the coolest morning so far this season. Parts of the regiono experienced freezes and frost. Lows included: AlbanY: 29° Allentown: 31° Atlantic City: 36° Binghamton: 29° Boston: 37° Bridgeport: 38° Danbury: 29° Hartford: 28° Islip: 40° New York City: 41° Newark: 38° Philadelphia: 41° Poughkeepsie: 28° Providence: 31° Trenton: 36° Westhampton: 42° White Plains: 36° Temperatures will begin to moderate starting tomorrow. Most of this week will see highs in the lower 60s. A strong storm will stay too offshore to bring rain to the region this week. Some elevated high tides are possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -32.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.460 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.6° (0.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence. The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.

Much cooler air moved into the region late last night. As a result, the New York City area is experiencing its coolest weekend so far this fall. Tomorrow will get off to a very chilly start. Many outlying areas will see frost. There is even a chance that the temperature could dip just below 40° in Central Park. The last time that happened this early in the season was during the 2015 El Niño. November 2015 was then much warmer than normal and some of the long-range guidance suggests that Pacific Air could begin to dominate much of the North American continent to start November. Temperatures will moderate next week with highs reaching 60° or somewhat above Tuesday through Friday. There remains uncertainty concerning rainfall potential. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -28.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.489 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.