Quincy

Seems to have a bit more potential than Sunday night. Still think the storm mode may get messy, but even with those concerns, I’d expect at least a few noteworthy tornadoes after dark. Moisture return has been steadily occurring with mid/upper 50s dew points already into the OK/TX panhandles. Placement and timing remind me a bit of 11/16/15. Can’t overlook the intensity of the low level jet tonight.

Recent HRRR runs show a sharp dryline bulge forming in far southwestern Oklahoma this afternoon with convective initiation around 23z. Of course these solutions feature a lone supercell tracking toward OKC after dark. Let’s not do that again.

High res models handled this event well. SPC seemed to go rather aggressive, despite messy CAM solutions and deep shear vectors nearly parallel to the cold front and dryline. Maybe Oklahoma bias? The models did handle the triple point semi-discrete supercell well. Storm chasing was a pain today as everyone and their neighbor’s uncle was out. I’m glad it busted, for safety sake. OKC dodges another one.

Several classic supercells near the coast tonight. A rare sight

How can I better help explain it, Kev?

Tornado threat is pretty cooked. Virtually no instability and substantial convective inhibition, both analyzed and forecast. Favorable low level shear is also becoming increasingly displaced to the north.

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY... Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60 mph. A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.

BID is back online. Almost reaching TS verification. Sustained winds 27 knots at the top of the hour. Gusting to 48 knots. 998.1mb

Impressive inland wind field

Not sure a sharp NW curve is coming, but due north takes the center to MVY. Should see a modest bend NNW. Thinking the center comes close to BID.

SREF mostly clustered near the general model consensus, but at least two members keep the center offshore.

00z HRRR sneaks in between MTP and BID. Very lopsided rainfall-wise. Almost nothing on the east side by landfall:

While Hurricane Henri Gently Weakens

Forgot to mention that the low level wind shear over Rhode Island tomorrow supports up to an EF-4 tornado

Satellite imagery depicts what you’d expect to see from a marginal cat 1 that’s more or less remaining steady state.

My only guess is tree density and hills maybe? Still seems kind of odd, especially if longer duration damaging winds are expected in far SE CT.

21z RAP took a huge jump east. Landfall near New Bedford now. Lol

SREF showing greater spread now as well. ARW members clustered NW, but NMM farther east.

If I didn’t have roots in SNE, I probably wouldn’t be spending so much time in this thread

Insane wind gusts via 18z HRRR. Let it rip.

Shows up nicely at 700mb, especially later today. Definitely looks like an inverted trough.