Quincy

Not sure a sharp NW curve is coming, but due north takes the center to MVY. Should see a modest bend NNW. Thinking the center comes close to BID.

SREF mostly clustered near the general model consensus, but at least two members keep the center offshore.

00z HRRR sneaks in between MTP and BID. Very lopsided rainfall-wise. Almost nothing on the east side by landfall:

While Hurricane Henri Gently Weakens

Forgot to mention that the low level wind shear over Rhode Island tomorrow supports up to an EF-4 tornado

Satellite imagery depicts what you’d expect to see from a marginal cat 1 that’s more or less remaining steady state.

My only guess is tree density and hills maybe? Still seems kind of odd, especially if longer duration damaging winds are expected in far SE CT.

21z RAP took a huge jump east. Landfall near New Bedford now. Lol

SREF showing greater spread now as well. ARW members clustered NW, but NMM farther east.

If I didn’t have roots in SNE, I probably wouldn’t be spending so much time in this thread

Insane wind gusts via 18z HRRR. Let it rip.

Shows up nicely at 700mb, especially later today. Definitely looks like an inverted trough.

SCP as a parameter can be overrated, but if nothing else, I like to see the crossovers and where CAPE/shear juxtapose with vertically veering wind profiles.

There will be a modest risk zone in the right front quadrant. Wind profiles are favorable and you don’t need much instability with tropical systems, given rich moisture profiles, but you’ll see a nose of skinny CAPE advect into southeastern SNE. Timing is favorable during peak heating Sunday afternoon to locally boost instability, particularly between rain bands. Since the system is slowing down and weakening, don’t expect the threat to make it too far inland. Picked a sounding near PVD at 18z Sunday and you’ll see a marginally favorable environment. Low level shear supports a brief spin up or two, but without a larger, more intense wind field, the threat should be fairly localized.

The fixation and on surface winds away from the immediate coast always seemed silly. I’ve been trying to stress the somewhat overlooked coastal flooding/surge topic for a while, but it seems like some are more interested with peak wind gust potential atop Mount Tolland.

Pretty meh wind field outside of the immediate coast and area near landfall.

12z Euro similar to 00z, only slightly weaker and a tick east. Takes the center from eastern LI into the MMK area. Inland wind field looks weaker.

Not really sure if characterize that as “extreme lack of shear.” If anything, shear is increasing along the mid-Atlantic coast and decreasing over New England. Modest shear downstream, but yes, somewhat less than you’d expect to see for a tropical system heading toward SNE.

If intensity is AOA NHC progs, then there will be major problems. I just think the realistic scenario is still bad, but a land falling TS with gusts of 50-60 MPH, mainly SE of I-95/395. If there was a solid cat 1 coming onshore at GON, that would be very bad.

Pretty sure there was ET going on there. I’m talking about a more “pure” tropical system with a relatively small core wind field.

Highest inland wind gusts from GFS look like maybe 60 MPH. Still robust and damaging, but model simulated wind gusts near the surface are almost always overdone in similar situations.

Yeah, that wording is suspect. How often does I-95/395 see power outages from nor’easters? Sure, there will be a lot of power outages, but that scale seems to imply it will be the worst on record or something.

12z RGEM goes right over BID:

Not good for surge in Narragansett and Buzzard bays