Quincy

FWIW, 12z HREF mean takes the center toward central LI, much like the official NHC track:

Is that for LI or CT landfall?

Some of the mesoscale models have an overly amplified bias that tended to result in a more W/NW track. I imagine that has some parallels to winter nor’easter biases.

Good call IMO. You can’t waffle back and forth with every model suite. Sure there are trends, but there’s also model noise too. We may see another adjustment through today. Best to maintain continuity and not make drastic shift changes every few hours.

12z NSSL WRF still likes the west camp:

Maybe because the EPS has better verification skills than GEFS?

HRRR has been ticking slightly east over time, probably just correcting for the far left track. 12z run shows a slightly more robust wind field, but still takes the center from central LI to near Danbury.

I don’t see any reason to deviate much from the official NHC track.

NHC forecast is directly fed into their graphics. Isn’t it good to have some uniformity? You don’t want stations going rogue like some do in Oklahoma and start using their own made up warnings, for example. Let’s give ‘em a break. Don’t think that’s a fair criticism.

SREF spread is tightening up. Solid consensus on landfall near eastern LI/BID.

3km NAM pegs eastern LI for landfall

No wind damage for Kev and no more damaging tor threat. What’s he got left to hope for, maybe damaging rain?

Medium range forecasting ensemble suites for short term forecasts FTW

It’s not making a landfall in western CT as a cat 1, lol.

I can’t decipher much of a synoptic level trend, but I do wonder how intensity affects this thing. Keep an eye on that today for any last minute effects on the track. Maybe a subtle trend for the ridge to be slightly stronger at the end? Could just be noise too:

If the RGEM is right, no spinners for Kev

You want the track a tick west so KTOL stays in the spinup threat zone on the RFQ.

There will be some inland outages too, but I can’t imagine anything widespread or long term away from the areas near the landfall/immediate right front quadrant.

Inland winds (we’re talking over 40-50 MPH sustained) were never really expected, unless you were looking at weenie models that are notorious for exaggerating tropical cyclone strength, or maybe a few outliers model runs. Personally, I think the coastal flooding/storm surge angles are not being hit home enough. Then again, I’m not watching local media, so hopefully they are covering it more extensively. It also looks like you could see a brief spin up or two east of I-91. Sure, there will probably be quite a bit of power outages, especially across Long Island and the I-95 corridor, but at this point, the difference between TS and borderline Cat 1 is negligible. For public awareness, I think going with the hurricane warnings was warranted. It’s a bit like the Irene situation with that respect. (Plus that could have maintained hurricane status if the track was slightly further east) Barring some drastic intensification, we’re looking at a solid tropical storm (at worst) hitting LI/CT from the SSE. Certainly an uncommon event, but not up to the task to match storms like Sandy or Gloria. Even if it does become a hurricane, the conditions (SST and forward speed) do not suggest we’re seeing a hurricane landfall. Even rainfall looks rather meh. 06z HRRR/NAM show most of SNE getting less than an inch of rain, outside of western CT. Could see 1-3” here, particularly where orographic lift helps. It’s good to be ready and prepare for the worst, but eventually you have to look at the data and accept that this may underperform many expectations in terms of inland impacts.

Lots of noise, but some more ensemble data… 21z SREF (latest) mean track is into central/eastern Long Island, but a few ARW members are clustered near RI/SE MA. The NMM members (blue) are more amped, as usual, resulting in more of a westward deviation. Meanwhile, 00z HREF mean track is more in line with the westward track: Not sure how useful the NSSL WRF is for a tropical system, but it is closer to the overall model consensus. It shows a landfall near Southampton.

Low 70s dews with NE winds FTW

Henri cancel

Looks like it’s hooking NW now

May have to settle with Henrietta

Regarding the tornado threat: As some have mentioned in the thread, these systems tend to produce “weak” tornadoes, often EF-0 or EF-1. They’re favored on the right side of a land falling tropical system and it’s rare to have a relatively intact system making landfall on Long Island (or vicinity) in such a way that weakening won’t be rapid. Low to mid-70s dews should advect into southeastern SNE, juxtaposed with enlarged hodographs. The strongest low-level flow should be confined to close to the storm center, but in this scenario below, you could see a tornado threat up to BDL-ORH and possibly BOS. Lapse rates are weak, but deep moisture through the profile and favorite wind fields drive the tornado threat, with only modest instability required. Should add that this may be favorably timed with afternoon heating on Sunday as well.