Quincy

FWIW, GFS shows a broad area of >7 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates over 68-71F dew points. (yes, some of the area is under convection) You don’t see this very often this far southeast during a severe event.

Wednesday wasn’t a colossal bust. Sure, there wasn’t much activity over the western heart of the moderate risk, but several long track supercells produced numerous tornadoes over Alabama. Thursday was even more fickle. Remember that SPC produces probabilistic outlooks. Just because the “odds” of a tornado max out at one point does not mean that this is exactly where tornadoes will form. Tornadoes are microscale phenomena and very complex.

This is a time sensitive version of the PPF (practically perfect forecast): There is some debate that the CIPS PPF method isn’t the best. I’d reference Gensini’s enhanced version tomorrow, once it updates. https://atlas.niu.edu/pperfect

I feel like the large/significant hail threat with these events in the Southeast often end up underperforming. You just don’t get the steep lapse rates aloft very often in this area that you do across the Plains. Plus the thermodynamic profiles are moist with higher precipitable water values than you’d ideally see for significant hail soundings. 3/19/18 on the other hand... (very different type of setup)

The DDC flukey tor appeared to happen near the warm front/low intersection. It seems like we get at least 1-2 events a year where the main focus is over TX/OK and a seemingly random tornado spins off near Dodge City...

Core punched the Paducah storm. A lot of hail, but mostly sub severe. Followed it closely from behind for over a half hour and never saw anything conclusive. Just a raggedy, low cloud base. Looks like the severe threat with this event is ramping down. Quite a few rain-wrapped tornadoes, that I had no business getting close to.

Also had a close call on a muddy road. Managed to wiggle out. Could have been a much worse situation. It was a 3 mile bypass thanks to Google Maps. Started paved, otherwise I wouldn’t have taken it. Had to continue or I would have been destroyed by hail. Not one of my finer chase moments Tornado from earlier:

Saw a brief cone tornado around 4:05ish to the east of Happy, just before passing through the canyon. Interestingly, the cell embedded in the north side of that cell is the long-tracker that keeps going.

May have spoken too soon. 20z AMA RAOB shows VBV in the mid-levels, but can’t argue with how it’s evolving now. Oof.

I was chasing the storms around Nazereth, but it was very messy. Lots of blowing dust and haze. Cool inflow as well. Not gospel, but car thermo was showing 63-65F. Saw plenty of scud/appendages, but it looks like it’s forming a line. The road network doesn’t give much breathing room, so heading toward the Caprock. Low level lapse rates are still marginal across the SE panhandle region, but better moisture and modest heating appears to be advecting that way. Messy so far, but not that far off from CAM solutions.

Will throw this surface map in here for reference. 71/62 at CDS now.

Definitely a different setup, although the time of year and placement of the greatest tornado risk are similar. That event had a broader risk area up and down the high plains. The one similarity would be some bulging of the dryline in the Texas panhandle. A key difference is 3/18/12 had a surface low in Wyoming and here we’re looking at a surface low in the Texas panhandle with a focused threat area near and immediately east of the dryline bulge/triple point vicinity. Despite some residual cloudiness, CDS has shot up to 68/62 as of 17z. Vernon, TX is up to 75F already. Lubbock is 63F, but you can interpolate that 70s are not far away. Moisture quality is often a concern this early in the season, but not so much today. Mesoanalysis shows a broad area of >8 C/km 700-500mb lapse rates across NW Texas. Wind fields are very favorable. Even though mid/upper level winds are SW, the initiating boundary should be draped NNW-SSE. Surface winds are backed to southeasterly. Seems to be a fairly solid setup with the only caveat being some storm mode concerns. Even there, you could see a long lived supercell or two, even if cells get a bit clustered. Let’s see what 2021 has to offer.

Brrrrr

I think we went all of May without a single moderate risk? This image is both staggering and telling about the past few months. The lack of tornado watches across the Plains, north and northwest of the I-44 corridor is remarkable. Just ridiculous having gotten through most of the peak tornado season...

With the cold front/pseudo dryline surging so fast, storm motions were more N/NNW than I expected. Any storms that tried to turn right seemed to get undercut. I witnessed a brief funnel cloud near Axtell, KS, otherwise everything else was fairly junky. Maybe the relatively small 0-1km SRH away from the immediate surface low was another issue.

Not only is one low 990s surface low strange this time of the year, but we have two... I remember looking at the 00z NSSL showing mid-70s dew points in NE Kansas and I thought it was out to lunch. Seeing 72-74 Tds pretty common over there right now. LCLs are relatively low considering surface temps surpassing 90F, but that moist advection has really helped. It’s an odd setup and I couldn’t find a close analog for this time of the year. Very intrigued to see how it plays out.

Tornado watch and quick analysis:

Tornado watch forthcoming for the central/eastern part of the KS/NE border area. Looking at obs, satellite and short-term guidance, there aren’t many negatives betting against the tornado threat. Yes, there is some backing of upper level winds and storms may cluster a bit... With that said, there’s already 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE wrapping around a seasonably impressive (near record low) surface low. Dew points are in the upper 60s to lower 70s, there is considerable backing of low-level winds and large low-level instability is evident. Storms should initiate soon near and just east of the surface low. Though narrow, the warm sector looks to be oriented favorably for storms to take advantage of the conducive environment for several hours. The main limiting factor may be mixed/merging storm modes, but a long-lived supercell or two appears possible. Storms farther north may have a tendency to run into cooler air, where winds are more out of the northeast, as opposed to southeast farther south.

I chased central Nebraska today. I was on the supercell that apparently produced a brief tornado near Arnold. Terrain was an obstacle both visually and WRT navigation. Prominent structure with the storm, either way.

Red flags up all over the place today. To mix it up, I’m focusing on the disadvantages of each storm chase target. I still wouldn’t rule out a diamond in the rough somewhere, but today looks like another convective mess.

I played the southern target, not really expecting much. At least I had a severe storm this time. However, I bailed on the one right-moving storm that by some accounts produced a brief tornado in NE South Dakota. Go figure. I drove less than 300 miles in total, which is low for a chase day. Much better than hauling up to ND, even though that fluky storm near Ashley produced. Lots of failure modes today, including:

The NW MN/far NE ND area looks maximized for tornado potential. Dew points already in the mid to upper 60s with a warm front gradually lifting north. Some of that risk probably spills into Canada, but I think the front in NW MN is where the best shot at prolonged discrete/semi-discrete supercells is. There could be a secondary area farther south in South Dakota, particularly the tail end of where convection unzips along a front. Between the two areas, it’s probably quick to upscale growth. One positive factor is the cold front looks slow-moving at best, maybe acting more like a stationary front. That may allow for a few storms to thread the semi-discrete needle, but we’ll see.

Ongoing derecho across the High Plains. It’s not too common to see such expansive convective systems so far west in the states. The lack of discrete activity ahead of the line may have helped maximize potential instability downstream as well. Moderate risk is in effect for widespread damaging winds.

Barring some evening miracle, today’s prospects for any surface-based supercells appear to be cooked.