Quincy

May have to settle with Henrietta

Regarding the tornado threat: As some have mentioned in the thread, these systems tend to produce “weak” tornadoes, often EF-0 or EF-1. They’re favored on the right side of a land falling tropical system and it’s rare to have a relatively intact system making landfall on Long Island (or vicinity) in such a way that weakening won’t be rapid. Low to mid-70s dews should advect into southeastern SNE, juxtaposed with enlarged hodographs. The strongest low-level flow should be confined to close to the storm center, but in this scenario below, you could see a tornado threat up to BDL-ORH and possibly BOS. Lapse rates are weak, but deep moisture through the profile and favorite wind fields drive the tornado threat, with only modest instability required. Should add that this may be favorably timed with afternoon heating on Sunday as well.

Looks like an 80-100 mile shift west from 00z.

It looks like Kev’s trees may not be uprooted after all. Thank goodness.

Elevation helps, but the trend isn’t his friend

AMOUT

Shoreline and coastal plain, yes. Tolland-Union mountain chain, not so much. Inland winds with these systems are usually overdone.

Most of the significant impacts seem to be limited to I-95 and points southeast, as I see it. Unless it continues farther/faster northwest before weakening and looping. Then you’d see more rain and maybe a spin-up threat farther inland into CT. Otherwise it’s probably going to underperform the expectations atop Mt. TOL. It’s bad news any way you slice it for south facing shores, bays/inlets and Long Island Sound. Probably the same for the South Shore of LI, especially if there continues to be any west/southwest trend.

Not sure if this will embed correctly, but see the trend of the steering currents. The orientation of the eastern US trough is more supportive of a northward pull, rather than the more “typical” sling to the NNE/NE:

Can’t underestimate the potential for coastal flooding and storm surge, especially in Long Island Sound. Those trajectories just funnel right in. This would be ugly for the Connecticut coast. At least the wind field with this thing isn’t as big as Sandy, but still…

Latest SREF low centers at 12z Sunday: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_Spaghetti_Low_Centers__

FWIW, RGEM takes the center up into central LI. Rapidly weakening, so Tolland gets spared from the apocalypse. Not much rain with that scenario.

I stayed far away from that hail core, but had a neat vantage point of structure to the south:

I’m in Stratford, OK which is about an hour SE of Norman. It’s been raining here almost every day for the past 3+ weeks. Yards are flooded. Grass is growing out of control. Reminds me of 2015, except even later in the spring. It’s crazy that it’s been so much hotter in the northern states lately than we’ve been at all this entire spring! I only had two chase days in Oklahoma all year too. Definitely a weird year and an odd pattern.

Caught a glimpse of the tornado near Fort Stockton, TX today. Only managed a couple pictures due to terrain and power lines.

I think in Colorado it was a noteworthy tornado. Once it got into the western Oklahoma panhandle, it was a lot less conclusive. It may have touched down a few brief times over the border, but I think the main deal was earlier. Terrain was a pain, for visibility and navigation.

I went for a Hail Mary with targeting the Fort Stockton area of SW Texas today. I figured Oklahoma would be slop with mega chaser convergence anyway. A supercell near Sanderson produced hail up to 2.0” and there were a few photo opportunities before and after that.

Hanging back near Scott City. Watching dozens of chasers flood north, but I’m hanging back in case we get CI in southwestern Kansas soon. Looks like a tornado is also ongoing at the moment in far southwestern Nebraska.

That’ll spell problems. Any storms that go up in western Kansas over the next few hours should rapidly become severe.

Even several HRRR ensemble members show earlier CI

HRRR shows convection holding off until just about 23-00z, but then erupting into a mixture of discrete and semi-discrete supercells. SPC cautioned that some CAMs show convection initiating several hours sooner. The 12z DDC sounding is cautionary as there isn’t much of a cap and the convective temperature is 80F. HRRR showed temps reaching the 80s by early afternoon. I’d think a compromise is probably the most realistic scenario, especially with HRRR having a “late” bias with CI.

Planned on storm chasing near Lubbock on Tuesday, but wound up on a marginal supercell closer to Amarillo. I was mildly surprised how long it persisted. It had some neat structure for a while, too

Chased a high based supercell in far northwestern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Quite a bit of wind and hail with this storm. Pronounced inverted-V thermodynamic profiles (71/46 at GLD 01z).

Questionable low-level thermodynamics up there and it’s hard when the velocity scans are relatively high due to distance from radar sites.

Almost! But not quite.