Quincy

I’m not chasing Kansas due to other obligations, but I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t chase it, if I were available. It just doesn’t strike me as a big tornado chase. I am mildly intrigued by the dryline in SW Oklahoma. As usual, the HRRR has been playing catch-up with moisture return. With that said, it still looks like dews are a tick too low for a more certain storm threat. At this point, I think there will be attempts at convective initiation around 22-23z, but given limited moisture, relatively large T/Td spreads and residual CINH, I doubt that there is any robust, sustained convection. It doesn’t strike me as a “drive three hours west and get PUMPED” setup, but if trends improve, there is a non-zero threat of a supercell.

Is it bad that I barely look at long range or even medium range guidance with respect to severe threats? It’s probably easy for me to say, living in Oklahoma. I feel more for those who have to travel long distances, and/or delicately plan PTO for chase trips. Models change and patterns evolve. As mentioned, as we get later into May, moisture will be better and severe setups will become more common. We’re still in that transition period. I don’t have data offhand, but I know that historically, early May has known to be quiet more often than not. It gets sandwiched between late April events (usually in the mid-South/Southeast) and peak trends in the second half of May. Think of it, most severe setups will change even the DAY OF. There isn’t too much use getting fixated on details. Threats seem to fall apart, far more often than the needle is threaded. Tomorrow looks blah and the pattern looks relatively timid for the following few days. Wake me up in late May.

Very hazy as I follow supercells east of Del Rio, TX. I can either go east and play it close (hoping low level rotation tightens up after 00z) or take a more southeasterly route to attempt to see more structure. The road network is very limited.

The LLJ axis is definitely shifting east. Even the Del Rio area is on the fringe, but short term guidance shows low-level flow rapidly strengthening around and shortly after 00z.

Several things… Opted to chase Colorado yesterday and ended up missing the landspouts. Not a big deal, I’m kind of a tornado snob, but it was fitting that I missed tornadoes closer to home, in NW Texas, yet again. The supercell, in general, was very dusty/grungy, so there weren’t too many photo opportunities. It looks like a tornado hit the town west of where I live last night… Torn between Rel Rio and NW Texas again. If the terrain and road networks were better, I’d definitely go with the southern target. Still reviewing data, but it’s also been interesting to see tornado warnings and even a couple tornadoes this morning via radar. We should be in for another busy day…

Having had some more time to look over Tuesday’s setup, I have to say that most of it is a big mess. In my view, TX/OK looks a SLGT-risk caliber setup, but I wouldn’t even have enough confidence to include a sig hail area, due to limited/fragmented instability fields. Having said that, I’m more intrigued by prospects near the surface low/triple point in western Kansas. The NAM seems most aggressive, with 0-3km lapse rates around 9 C/km with favorable low-level moisture and substantial hodograph curvature. The EC/GFS show somewhat less favorable moisture return, leading to more marginal instability profiles. Since this is still 42-48 hours and the setup will continue to evolve, I don’t have high confidence in zeroing in on an area for severe thunderstorms. I’d lean toward surface low proximity, but that could fall into failure mode as well.

The models (NAM/GFS/EC) show what I’d call “blotchy” instability maps. The wind profiles don’t look all that bad with guidance suggesting some backing/strengthening of low level winds. I think one of the issues is going to be ongoing/stratiform precipitation during the day, limiting instability. It could be a setup with a few widely spaced supercells, within an otherwise messy setup. Not sure where the best threat could evolve, but it could be anywhere from SW Texas (Fort Stockton area?) to western OK. Not sure I’m sold on much of a threat with northward extent into Kansas, but we’ll see.

Messy storm mode and less favorable lapse rates, compared to areas farther NW.

Was in like the 10% of chasers today who were in NW Texas, but were not on the tornadic supercell. Captured a few pictures, so not a complete failure, but pretty close to it

Big ice makers today

One observation I’ve noted about the NW Texas tornado watch is that low-level hodographs are still relatively small. 0-1km SRH via 21z mesoanalysis is below 100 m2/s2 near and immediately ahead of the arc of cells.

It looks like a lead, subtle perturbation in the warm air advection regime sets off a mess of convection by midday across central/eastern Texas into eastern Oklahoma. While the HRRR lacks CI away from the triple point area in NW OK (which gets undercut by a cold front), the 3km NAM and WRF/ARW members are much more active in SW OK. Looking at the HRRR forecast soundings, I’m not quite sure why it doesn’t initiate convection there. It shows virtually no CIN, temperatures reaching convT and large CAPE profiles. I’m guessing it has to do with overzealous mixing and/or the tendency for HRRR to be too late with CI. The setup does seem a bit off. Maybe a touch too slow as some have mentioned, at least in comparison to 4/22/20. The HRRR is furthest north, while the 3km NAM places the triple point the farthest southwest. At this juncture, I’d say Texas is mostly out of any dryline action, with the only possible exception being if the low tracks farther south. If the 3km were onto a trend, maybe you see storms initiate in far NW Texas. The surging cold front looks like it will undercut storms closer to the surface low in western OK. We may have to wait until morning to really get a better idea of specifics, but I wouldn’t write this setup off yet.

It’s definitely complicated. Reminds me of a tamer version of 5/9/16. Recall that SPC and some others (like me) thought the warm sector looked better. The dryline went nuts in what was almost a colossal bust on my end. Also seeing some shades of Springer as well. The new HRRR has a late CI bias, but other models also show limited QPF/CI signals. I actually like that. If you do get an isolated storm or two, then they have a chance to go bonkers. Forecast soundings ahead of the dryline show classic thermodynamic profiles and while hodographs may not be extremely large, I’d gather they’d support a photogenic supercell. CI near the triple point seems to have the best model support, but that might get undercut by the cold front. I pulled some warm sector soundings and low-level lapse rates look rather anemic. The dryline south of the Red River seems like the biggest wild card that could go boom or bust in a big way. At the very least, the Plains is waking up!

The trend appears to be feeding better instability and moisture up to I-40 now. It’s in weenie NAM land, but the fact that the 12km shows very sparse convection with minimal CIN in central/southern Oklahoma toward 00z, catches your attention. Without getting into specifics, as the forecast will evolve, it definitely bears watching from roughly the DFW - OKC area. Could see isolated convection farther south as well, as we’ve seen a few times this month.

There’s definitely a noteworthy signal, but this is well into the medium range, so let’s see how it evolves in the coming days...

It looked interesting for a short time. Logistically, I couldn’t go too far east or southeast since I have obligations in Oklahoma tomorrow morning. At least I was able to bail before it got too late in the day.

Stas is a beast. He claims he sucks at chasing Dixie, but his results say otherwise.

Typical post-2016 Dixie chase for me. Bust! Central Alabama was really the place to be today. Not looking so hot for the southern burbs of Birmingham again...

I’m at a clearing near Vina, AL on a hill. View is partially occurred and will be repositioning to the NE momentarily... Can sort of see a grungy wall cloud to the west.

I’m on the AL side heading up to get into position for this storm. Will pass on if I see anything interesting.

We’re kind of beyond NAM range, but FWIW, it pops supercells all over the place from northern MS into TN and KY over the next few hours...

The I-20 corridor looks like it has potential for several more hours. The return flow is pumping unstable air back north. Hopefully more storms don’t take a beeline toward Birmingham...

I also wonder how closely they use HREF probabilities as a guideline. They usually don’t deviate far from that. That popped a small tornado driven high risk at 12z.

Surface winds are more backed up here, but low level flow is rather weak. I’m actually in NE MS “chasing” now, near the AL border. More like making a decision soon if I’m going to bail back to Oklahoma.

It’s still a bit early, but I agree with this, especially for the western part of the risk area, closer to the MS River. Sure, we have large CAPE and near-record lapse rates, but the wind field there is just about unidirectional now. I think that getting big CAPE and large hodographs in the Southeast is exceedingly rare. The writing was on the wall when midday SRH maps looked relatively modest, west of the MS/AL border. Farther east has been a different story. CAMs remain aggressive with the zone of messy storm modes breaking into semi-discrete storms. It could still happen, but we’ll see. The air mass is recovering over central MS, but low level shear would need to improve. Of course you had that one long track supercell go largely unimpeded on the SE fringe of convection.