Quincy

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Quincy

  1. Morning storms exiting NE Oklahoma are near an effective warm front. Elevated instability exists to the NE, while most surface-based instability is SW. Note that the 700mb thermal ridge is over western OK at the moment. As it shifts east, storms lift into/through Missouri and capping takes over. Morning storms have little to no impact on mid/late afternoon activity. Unless there’s some outflow boundary... Let’s say that scenario doesn’t reduce the severe threat.
  2. Ran into some large hail producing elevated storms in north-central Kansas this morning.
  3. I don’t really have too much to add. Looks like a one-two punch. Morning/early afternoon hailers from northeastern KS into MO, then watch the front/trough unzip by 21-23z from SW MO into OK. HRRR showed some steep low-level lapse rates, but 0-3km CAPEs may be limited with southwest extent. Biggest question in my mind is storm mode in Oklahoma. CAPE/shear will be there. Deep shear vectors probably favor mixed modes and a few supercells, but how long can storms stay discrete? We’ll see.
  4. A quick and dirty comparison shows some similarities to 4/28 and almost in the same area. There might be slightly longer residence time for discrete storms this go around. Could have another SE to S moving tail end Charlie in the central Oklahoma vicinity. There’s also a signal for morning convective activity, a storm cluster or even an MCS dropping from northern Kansas toward the Ozarks. Wonder if that may shunt the front farther south and/or reintensify across Missouri. Currently wrapping up a chase in Nebraska. I’ll take a closer look in a couple of hours.
  5. After tomorrow, the following seven days look very quiet and generally unfavorable for severe weather across the central states. NW flow can’t get it done this early in the season, as moisture return is usually anemic north of I-40. With that said, it is common for a lull in activity that in early May. We just had the most active April since 2011, so it was bound to quiet down eventually. It’s rare to have an extended period of consistently active severe weather during the first half of spring. Interestingly enough, 2011 has followed a similar tornado curve to this year. Recall that in 2011, after late April, the pattern basically shut down for two weeks. It wasn’t until mid to late May (roughly four relatively quiet weeks) that the pattern became active again.
  6. So much for farther south getting any intense storms... That didn’t happen until after sunset. The triple point and warm front did not disappoint from what I saw. I was able to catch this storm in far eastern Texas before calling it a night:
  7. Mesoanalysis shows some residual capping. Kinda wish FWD had launched a special sounding, but it might have been west of the dryline anyway. It’s going to be a close call down here.
  8. Looks like they’re a little slow to get going, but the environment is becoming increasingly favorable. Low-level winds are backed to southeasterly downstream, although dews are still only in the upper 50s/lower 60s.
  9. Also: the low-level jet looks stronger in NE Texas as well. Confidence increasing that this will be the area to watch.
  10. Based on latest trends from obs and high-res guidance, it looks like moisture return north of the Red River will be marginal at best. Forcing near the triple point should still result in vigorous convection, but I have some doubts about the tornado threat there. I agree that East Texas (especially north) looks better with respect to moisture and instability. I’m in Paris, TX and about to head south. Just came from Hugo, OK and it was overcast and gloomy there. I’m not a fan of the terrain southeast of I-30, so hopefully storms can initiate near or north of there.
  11. Noting some weak convection near the Red River already. Likely elevated. Wonder if that ends up re-enforcing a moisture gradient down there. Could be just enough to stunt moisture return into SE OK a bit, but not totally sure.
  12. Agreed with moisture concerns. Looks like mainly a severe hail threat initially. As the low-level jet strengthens and moisture return increases a bit closer to 00z, still think there is a bonafide tornado threat. Especially if the storm(s) near the triple point ride a pseudo warm front and don’t congeal into a messy blob.
  13. Some shades of two days ago, obviously a bit different synoptically, but there will be a surface low moving east across Oklahoma with CI ahead of a dryline/cold front. Roughly 100 miles farther east. This time, CI seems more probable with southward extent, with more of a linear mode evolving north of the surface low into NE Oklahoma. The thing that jumps out to me the most are lapse rates. They look quite steep from SE Oklahoma into NE Texas. Storms may be more prolific hail producers than Wednesday was. The tornado threat is most apparent near and south of the surface low.
  14. A bit late to the game, but chased the Springer, OK tornado from start to finish today. It lasted close to 10 minutes. It was near a wooded area and I think that’s why we didn’t see a lot of streams or close footage. I had to drive a few miles east before I found an acceptable clearing. There were zero roads going north... Quick note about streaming and bandwidth. I’ve had really bad issues with cell service lately, probably and combination of throttling and heavy usage due to the virus. Anyway, I had a “strong” signal, but had major issues with internet with this storm. Maybe it was all of the chasers around, but it was really frustrating and worse than usual during my chases in Oklahoma.
  15. They outflow boundary from Duncan to Pauls Valley, OK continues to drop south. Temps are averaging near 63F on the immediate cool side. Looks like the focus area is getting more narrowed down to the Red River.
  16. Initiation down south of the Red River will probably be delayed. That does allow more time for the downstream clouds to push away, which they’re starting to do.
  17. Went from overcast to partly/mostly sunny here in Ardmore in the past 10 minutes. Can feel it heating up quick.
  18. Deepening cu field NW of Fort Worth as well. Probably going to initiate within the next hour or so.
  19. Looks like the low has passed FDR. For reference:
  20. Disclaimer: a Still expecting a couple of intense supercells on either side of the Red River... Cloudiness is socked in near and east of I-35. The HRRR has been trending somewhat narrower and a tick SW with the narrow warm sector for this afternoon. The best low-level shear is where there is dense cloud cover, while the cap is eroding farther west. An outflow boundary south of Norman is drifting south, which should keep the OKC metro area away from any intense storms. With that said, seasonably rich boundary layer moisture (dews of 68-71F) has advected to about the Red River with a narrow tongue of strong instability. Deep layer wind profiles are favorable and low-level winds are backed to SSE along the I-35 corridor. Two areas to watch: 1. Near the surface low/triple point. Concern here is a semi-discrete or clustered storm mode, but as @andyhb mentioned, they’re on target to approach multiple outflow boundaries, so there should be a notable tornado threat. Residence time for something photogenic may be tempered a bit due to storm modes and the narrow width of the warm sector, but we’ll see. 2. An intense supercell or two will likely develop near or just north of DFW. Here, there will be large buoyancy and likelihood that the cap will break by 21-22z. I’d suspect large to very large hail will be likely here. Although low-level shear may be modestly less impressive, it will still be favorable for tornadoes. You could still get a storm between these two areas, but if I had to narrow it down to two targets, there you go.
  21. I chased that thing, mainly the 30 minutes prior to touchdown. Couldn’t see anything conclusive. Even when it did start, there was not much of a visual due to grunge factor, very dark (almost pitch black before sunset) and trees. Almost certainly rain-wrapped unless you were unsafely close. The mesocyclone reminded me of the Bonner Springs EF-4 from last year. By the time it crossed MS-35 south of Columbia it was dark and there was no way of keeping up. The damage south of Columbia (from what I saw) was really bad. Trees shredded and uprooted, virtually every road in the area was blocked by trees. A reminder that storm chasing in Dixie is rarely fun.
  22. No shortage of moisture sampled at LIX/Baton Rogue: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/20041912_OBS/LIX.gif Dews around 72-73F along I-10 across Louisiana.
  23. Similar to the HRRR depictions. With regard to the western half of the risk area, pay close attention to how convection in East Texas evolves over the next 1-3 hours as it approaches western Louisiana. Even with a messy storm mode, you can get embedded tornadic supercells, but it may temper the threat somewhat.
  24. The environment from southern AL into southern GA rapidly becomes very favorable for tornadoes in the morning. If early convection can latch onto the warm front and ingest surface-based parcels, it could get ugly in a hurry. Storm motions suggest that storms could ride along the front right to the GA coast. Time sensitive: