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Everything posted by Quincy

  1. The Arklatex setup has some tropical characteristics to it. Definitely not something you’d usually see in May.
  2. It does. I haven’t cracked its code yet... Today looks interesting, but I do see a few potential caveats. First, low-level instability looks good, but CAPE profiles aloft should be quite skinny. Second, low level winds are backed, but forecast soundings show only modest enlargement of 0-1km hodographs. Moisture looks sufficient and breaks in the clouds are allowing for some destabilization. Forcing is a little bit nebulous prior to 00z, but storms could initiate in three regimes: 1. In the narrow warm sector as capping is minimal. 2. Near an effective warm front. 3. On the SW flank of ongoing convection. It looks like the strongest forcing does not arrive until after sunset. I still think a few storms can initiate, but if upper level support was just a bit faster, I think we’d have a higher ceiling. On the flip side, modest forcing might save this from rapidly blowing up into a sloppy mess. I’m interested to see how it turns out.
  3. Heading toward northeastern Colorado. Not the most impressive setup, but wind profiles along with modest instability might support a supercell or two. Not playing with that junk in Oklahoma. Deep layer wind profiles are hideous for mid-May.
  4. I caught the beginning stages of that storm:
  5. A few areas to consider today... The most obvious seems to be southeastern Kansas. With strong/extreme instability and modest shear, I’m not sure if we’ll see a clustered mess or a slow-moving supercell just before 00z. It could go either way. The dryline/front intersection out west looks interesting, but large T/Td spreads and marginal shear could lead to junk as well. Keeping an eye on Colorado and Nebraska as well for good measure.
  6. Feel free to ask questions too, that’s one of the best ways to learn.
  7. Looks like a few storms went up right before sunset. Not a complete bust. Tomorrow could feature some fun in Kansas or possibly even eastern Colorado...
  8. Shear remains unfavorable for supercells:
  9. HRRR still only shows 25-30kt shear at CI, but it does increase to 30-40kt by 22-23z. It will be interesting to see if a storm can manage to form between GAG and DDC. There hasn’t been much CAM support for that, but the environment would be conditionally favorable for a discrete supercell. Otherwise it looks like a sloppy storm mode with rapid clustering.
  10. One of the key factors to consider tomorrow is deep layer shear. Sure, instability will be there and critical angles look good (favorable turning with height), but 30 knots of shear is very marginal/borderline. 12z 3km NAM shows only 25-30kt deep layer shear along the dryline at CI time. HRRR is not much better at around 30kt. Sure, you could get a storm or two to take on supercellular characteristics, initially, but a rapid transition to messy/clustered storm modes looks likely. Edit to add graphical support:
  11. This can be a thread for some of the less significant severe weather days... Took a gamble and went out to West Texas today. Missed the supercell up near Amarillo and nearly busted the whole chase. Did have some redemption at sunset as a QLCS intensified not far from Lubbock.
  12. Flipped to snow as far southeast as MMK. Been snowing at Danbury for a bit too. Almost kinda miss Connecticut in a weird way at the moment...
  13. Still chasing this as it’s gradually turning right.
  14. Getting into position near CDS now.
  15. Based on short term CAMs, convective temperatures (91-92F) are almost reached near/just NW of CDS and this is supported by agitated cu fields east of AMA.
  16. Enhanced Risk issued for a small area in and around Oklahoma City. The more impactful storms (in terms of population impacted) may be - cluster of evening/overnight storms with large hail and damaging winds.
  17. Models have also been trending toward less moisture return. HRRR had lower 60s dews reaching to I-40, while now it has CDS struggling to hold around 60F through CI time. Cloud-cover is finally moving out of the eastern panhandle/western Oklahoma region, at least. It looks like there might just be enough moisture in place by peak heating. Wind profiles stronger favor supercells, so as long as a robust updraft can form, it should go spinning into the night... or aleast for a few hours near/along the Red River.
  18. It’s 1977 all over again
  19. Was it really the cap, or more of a function of less boundary layer heating and poor low-level lapse rates? I know a cap is influenced by boundary layer heating, but the models were way off. 1-2C difference in lapse rates is huge. It’s not like they progged 13C at 800mb and it was 17C. When I think of too much cap, I think of orphan anvils and failed CI. We had plenty of CI today, but I’m guessing bad lapse rates and meager low-level cape led to less intense parcel acceleration. Updrafts weren’t necessarily as intense as many expected. Ever since that busted tornado outbreak “swarm” in Oklahoma, I’ve started taking LLLRs a lot more seriously. There is a strong correlation between higher end tornado episodes and LLLRs. Likewise, a lot of busts have junky low-level thermodynamics.
  20. Storms in NE Oklahoma look weak so far. Lapse rates are still pretty awful.
  21. I haven’t been too impressed by the HRRRv4 this season. Mixed results, but also some bad stuff, like today: It shows substantial 0-3km CAPE where mesoanalysis shows little to none.
  22. Pretty ugly and satellite shows thick cloud deck, particularly across the Missouri side of the 10% hatched.
  23. Just ran back three runs to 15z and HRRR was progging 6.5-7 C/km LLLRs where the 18z run at hour 1 has 5.5 C/km... Definitely trending down, but there still is some time.
  24. As of 18z low-level lapse rates were anemic from far northeastern OK into southwestern MO. There still is some time to heat, so we’ll see...
  25. This. Watch temperature trends closely. HRRR is not far off as of 15z, just 1-2F too cool in parts of central OK. However, it may only take an extra degree or two of heating to break the cap. That’s what we saw happen on 4/28.