Quincy

Chased northeastern New Mexico on Wednesday. A very similar chase to June 22nd. SPC is very aggressive with the latest day 1 outlook. 10% tornado probabilities across southeastern Colorado. CAMs show no convective initiation prior to dark, but the parameter space does look pretty impressive. We’ll have to see what happens in the wake of ongoing convection through this morning.

Stayed in Salina last night, my original plan was to go into Nebraska, but whatever happens will go HP fast and Colorado puts tomorrow’s target into closer range. I do think there’s a window for something in Nebraska, but given High Plains vs. lower elevations to the east, I’ll almost always favor the western target.

Expansive slight risk today with SPC delineating an enhanced risk area across parts of eastern Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska. Glancing influence from a 40-50 knot jet pivoting east across the north-central states will coincide with a sagging frontal boundary to kick off scattered to numerous thunderstorms later today. Storm modes should be messy with deep shear vectors nearly parallel to the front, although large instability and some backing of lower level winds may result in a few initial supercells across Nebraska. A somewhat greater supercell risk may evolve farther NW across northern Colorado and Wyoming, in a post-frontal regime. Here, while instability may be less robust, stronger deep layer wind fields should yield elongated hodographs. The environment will be conditionally favorable to support a longer lived supercell or two, IF any dominant storm can remain at least somewhat isolated. Overall storm evolution favors clustering and upscale growth, hence the enhanced risk for an increasing wind damage threat this evening.

Here we go again… A pattern characterized by an extended period of seasonably strong upper level flow is anticipated across the central U.S. much of this week, along with SLGT risk convective outlooks each day, through Day 5. If ensemble data is correct, the pattern could linger into next week. It looks more like an early to mid-June pattern… as this odd severe weather season continues. One analog even compared this setup to late May 1996, as a suppressed ridge across the Texas vicinity allows somewhat anomalous flow to coincide with favorable moisture/instability from eastern Colorado into Kansas and surrounding areas. Details are to be ironed out, but the High Plains, including parts of the Southern High Plains, toward the Central Plains will likely see isolated to scattered severe storms each day this week. The thread has been generalized to cover June and July, as the pattern reloads for the foreseeable future…

Several stations in southwestern Oklahoma exceeded 110 degrees today for the actual high, including 113 at Altus. Wichita Falls also hit 110, but their daily record high is 117, so not even close.

More video clips from yesterday’s tornado: Complex setup is evolving today across the Missouri Valley/Midwest. A locally higher tornado threat may exist across parts of central Iowa, but complex storm modes and storm mergers may limit the extent of the threat. Still, enlarged hodographs near an outflow boundary and rich moisture advecting northeast into southwestern Iowa could conditionally support a strong tornado later this afternoon.

Not the greatest or most compelling footage out there, but here’s a 16ish minute clip showing a large portion of the life cycle of last night’s tornado, from my vantage point:

That is really sad to see. It seemed like a mostly rural area and the warning echoed that, but obviously there was some unfortunate destruction. I’m processing a 15 minute wide angle video of the tornado. Not only was it a slow mover, but the motion was really erratic. I’ll share when it’s up. It was a great chase, but it’s ever great to see damage like that.

Just witnessed a long-lived, slow moving tornado south of Granada, CO. Limited bandwidth, so posting this for now:

Multiple tornado warnings at the moment across central Wyoming. A tornado watch is in effect for parts of eastern Wyoming and vicinity. Other storms will be possible up and down the High Plains, immediately ahead of a dryline. Storms could interact with an outflow boundary near the Texas panhandle and convective initiation is also underway on the nose of a dryline bulge in southeastern Colorado. Tomorrow may be the final day for a bit with relatively widespread severe potential across the sub forum, as a shortwave ejects east across the Dakotas. Details are unclear, but the severe potential seems to be focused on Iowa and surrounding areas.

I stayed away from the Denver hail and tornado, favored more discrete supercell development in northeastern New Mexico:

When you get 70 dew points to the Caprock, big/bad things can happen. Today’s High Plains environment looks slightly less volatile, along with slightly less juiced moisture. With that said, several modified boundaries could be the focus for widely scattered supercell development this afternoon and evening.

Well thank you, but not even sure that’s my best. Probably my favorite from this year though. The Northern Plains storms are something else, especially with the open country and relative lack of other chasers. The northeastern Colorado tornado-fest makes sense in hindsight, while most of us were blinded by the potential for more discrete activity in southeastern Wyoming.

Pretty wacky environment near the outflow boundary in the Texas panhandle. Deep layer shear may be modest, but CAMs show 6000-9000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. SPC has an enhanced risk near that area and also near the CO/NE/WY border region. One of those events where you can see multiple intense supercells form over widely spaced areas.

Active pattern coming up for High Plains severe threats. Wednesday focuses on eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Thursday should be somewhat farther south. As stronger upper level flow ejects eastward, Friday has the potential to feature a widespread severe threat from much of the High Plains, eastward into parts of Kansas and possibly even Oklahoma. The signal is strong, not necessarily for a high end event, but for a relatively expansive area with severe potential.

Chased a supercell from southeastern Montana into western North Dakota Monday evening:

It’s been a tough season for Kansas and Nebraska. I’ve been chasing quite a bit this year, but only a few select events in Kansas. Barely in Nebraska at all, only a couple of the far southwest counties, briefly. Hoping for some Northern Plains action today and tomorrow. Today could feature a supercell or two in eastern Montana. Tomorrow looks like quick-to-linear over the Dakotas. Beyond that, the pattern is kind of funky. Sure, enhanced upper level flow over the Northern Rockies, but another cutoff low over the Southeast means a fairly nebulous severe pattern. Maybe a couple of events over the High Plains, but not much to the east over the lower elevations. There might finally be an ejecting shortwave by Friday/Saturday, but I’ll hold my breath on that.

The 00z JAN sounding signifies a once in a generation type of setup for meteorological summer. (I do realize it’s not a prominent EML, but still, yet another absurd sounding for June). The last time we had a June pattern like this was 1998. Before that, you have to go back to the 70s.

77 mph gust at Tulsa International Airport. I know the bow looked impressive (was showing 120+ mph velocities at 1.6kft AGL), but I’m a little suspect of that 100 mph spotter report. Sure it’s possible, but perfectly rounded and no context, like station height, estimate vs. recorded, etc. Anyway, two MCSs continue across the Mid-South vicinity from the overnight activity. There could be some renewed severe threat in their wakes, assuming adequate airmass recovery.

Avoiding the HP grunge and chaser conga lines. Currently on this supercell near Canadian, TX.

Tornado Watch up for the OK/TX panhandles and western Oklahoma. There will probably be a few tornadoes, but huge hail seems to be the more widespread hazard. (Wind will, probably, become the biggest hazard overnight, as storms merge)

Storms should be predominantly discrete/semi-discrete through 00z, especially around the Texas panhandle vicinity. Storm initiation with southward extent is a bit of a question mark, but Northwest Texas could get in on the action too, before storms grow upscale. Agreed that most of the later stuff is messy. More heavy rain and wind anticipated for much of central Oklahoma and North Texas.

Illustrating the upper level setup for tomorrow vs. yesterday. A few small differences, but the main change appears to be placement slightly farther NW and, probably, somewhat later convective initiation.

Isolated severe storms across the region today, but tomorrow dials up the risk again. In fact, tomorrow looks similar to yesterday. A belt of unseasonably strong upper level flow in place from the Southern Rockies to the Lower Mississippi Valley with a shortwave ejecting toward KS/OK.

Wild atmospheric conditions around the Southern Plains tonight. I just encountered nearly tennis ball size hail from modest (at first glance) looking reflectivity returns. 00z FWD and OUN soundings have crazy elements as well: