Bubbler86

1/2 inch on non road surfaces...roads getting a little white tint to them.  32/29 with SN+

35 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFS and then HRRR ftw. 

BUT!!! This means anyone who posts ICON maps should get permabanned! 

So really it’s a win.

The ICON is actually a decent model.  It ended up being too cold in runs early this week but it was one of first to signal at least part of this day would be snowy when most other LR guidance was rain.  

13 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Making tiny progress with temp, now down to 33.4.  Signs of snow beginning to stick showing up.

That blossoming area to your southwest has laid down about 1/4" on the decks and grass here.  Still above 32 so roads just wet. 

Just had a wind gust of 31 here.  Quick heavy snow burst but tailed off now.  

11 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Dew point temps at the surface are not going to be what the issue is - it’s going to be the upper air temps by the time the main precipitation actually arrives.  The 10:1 maps are printing out snow totals for the area that they just dropped the warning for that are several inches higher than how things are looking like they will play out (12z Euro Kutchera has MDT at 1” snow total for example).  What was supposed to be the front end thump for LSV has ended up further away from the low and is well north than what models were showing prior to this morning.  What was supposed to be the start of heavy snow around here by 2-3 pm models like HRRR runs today don’t have arriving until 7-8pm with warm air aloft right on the doorstep.

Most agreed except that everyone keeps saying that DP's are not the issue but if it is not below freezing at the surface it can snow forever and is just going to melt on the roads except in the heaviest bands...that is why I keep referencing DP's. Most of the LSV has not had 5" or more on Kuchera for a day or two but we were progged to get so much sleet that the WSW might have worked out.  HRRR is progging much lower qpf's all together now and that probably played into it.  HRRR delayed the arrival of heavy snow to 5-7PM almost 12 hours ago so if that had dropped it this AM it would have seemingly made more sense but not a big deal either way. 

They just dropped the warnings for LSV.   Surprising this late.  If anything the trends have been pro snow the last few hours.  Dp's are below forecasted.

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Snowing in HBG. Just walked into a movie so will be telling what’s happening when we get out at 4:30 pm. 

Hopefully David Dunn wins. 

46 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

As expected.


.

CTP PTC forecasts were a 2-4 inches higher in Central Dauphin and Lebanon counties vs. Cumberland + Perry but Carlisle is sitting pretty right now.  I believe he said he was weest of town close to the ridges? 

15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Woo hoo….snow grains have commenced here with a tiny accumulation on the board...but it's also melting with the temp only down to 34.7 so far.  

LSV wise I think you are in the best position.  Both north and west.  If you get the rates you may be the jackpot today.  I think I over did it on my calls for western pa but my 2 to 4 for you might not be enough! 

Also as mag alluded to we dry slot quickly tonight which will hopefully cut down on the rain.  Ain't nobody got time for rain.

Latest hrrr has lowered the dp's a little....good trend for front end thump of a few inches. 

38 and drizzle in Waynesboro 

Heading out and just noticed it is raining a bit here with a few flakes mixed in. 

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Not a flake has fallen yet.

no one has won or lost yet!

Well, I am not here to be a winner or a loser.  This is a weather discussion board.  I am not trying to bring you to the ledge.  Sorry if you have taken my posts as anything other than synoptic discussion. 

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The blizzard of 93 ( & no of course I’m not thinking we are getting a blizzard...just recalling a storm....) & many, many, many ... storms have started with surface temps near or slightly above freezing.

please see @MAG5035 post from overnight with the upper air map

I am just discussing the weather this AM.  I do think I went too high on my forecast yesterday even for Mag and 2001. 

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

At this point, we just need to see how things play out. A ton of moisture is heading our way & we should be cold enough for snow to start. Heavy precip can overcome marginal surface temps with no problem. I expect snow to stick immediately to untreated surfaces.

No one in November thought we were getting 8 inches of snow because of time of year, ground temps, sun angle & other ideas that ended up being wrong.

Yea, lets hope the front end thump really comes down!  One thing is that it should be large flakes and that is always fun! 

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That is almost exactly what Horst is predicting will happen.

It actually has the Lancaster area getting up to 50 tonight.  I would usually chuckle and say no way but the temps are so warm right now it is very believable.  We needed that low to transfer south of us and it looks like it is not going to happen.  A bit depressing.  

Short range model wise the HRRR shows the LSV getting up to 40 then a rain/snow mix arrives driving down temps to 33-34.  We get an hour or two of snow before 850's go above freezing then several hours of sleet before changing over to rain.  Precip arrives 4-5PM.   Unfortunately it shows no snow accum's south of I81 and 1-3" (probably on the grass on)the North/W side of the Valley. The rain snow line gets up to the PA/NY border later tonight. 

Pretty much in line with NWS's point and click's that I looked at except they are too high on the snow accums. 

22 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

How is the ice threat looking? The WSW is calling for 0.10-0.20 of ice accumulation instead of the 0.25 they were saying the other day.

I think a lot of the LSV sees quite a bit of sleet as it is quite cold in some of the upper columns(as Mag posted last night).  Temps seem to be progged to stay between 32 and 35 so not a huge freezing rain signal.

I fear iI am going to bust too high on my accums.  I knew we did not have the Arctic air and talked myself into thinking otherwise.    It is 35 here with a dp of 32 right now. 

Just now, Burghblizz said:

Wright Weather....That was even Before Easterns time. 

Ahh, I am getting old.  I remember Scott Simard being the one who was sure it was going to happen and he was right.  

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wasn’t there a storm here in the late 90s or something that had Mets predict8ng 2’ snow and it ended up a rainstorm with no frozen precip? I’ve heard that urban legend.

I believe it was Dec. 30th 2000 that we were under a WSW for a foot and not only did it not snow there were hardly any clouds.  Not rain though.  That storm equaled out the Jan 5th 2000 Miracle Blizzard where we got over a foot and had little to no snow forecast.  That one is an Eastern US WX Legend as weenies nowcasted their way into a blizzard. 

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Your exactly right, Nut. 

He is and that is the bad part...thermals up the column are important and heavy snow can bring down cold air but we are not getting a major snow or ice storm with DP's around 30 and a southerly wind.  Need something to import cold air in.  

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

You get 10 inches of snow according to that 0z NAM map. If you cut that in half for mixing & ratios that would not be too bad.

I think most of that is sleet and freezing rain.  Here is the snow gains map.  Really cuts back all of PA.

2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well...I very unexpectedly hit my high of the day at 7:00pm with a reading of 38.1.  My afternoon high had been 36.0 and began to fall a bit around sunset.  Then it mysteriously began to rise again up to the new high.  The temp has only dropped back to 36.5 as of this writing.  Not only that but when I went to the grocery store a short time ago there were raindrops on my front and rear windshields.  Uh-oh?

Yea not much encouraging going on right now.  We are going to need an overzealous/under modeled high to come to our rescue.