Bubbler86

Down to +4 here right now. 

7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

FWIW 18z RGEM has an inch From dc to the north east with a max of 1.5-2” on the upper eastern shore. 

I see you guys mentioning the coastal influence or high qpf near the shore...the UK posted earlier also had similar look. 

12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Before we start assessing the significance of our warm up next week too heavily I also wouldn't sleep on Fridays snow event either if I were below I-80 and especially along the turnpike south. Could be another 1-3" scattered higher amounts type event. Looks like higher would favor Laurel's but if this ends up a tad more juiced up we could be talking another advisory type event across the southern tier. 

...and to me the additional tack on significance is that possibly for the first time since the November storm, surface temps are not going to be an issue though intensity may be.  2 or3" of snow starting Friday Am could actually cancel schools at these temps.   The Nam and the "Model for which we do not speak of" both show it snowing for about 6 hours.

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

A big problem we've had this winter has been storm track when it has been especially active and the pattern has been progressive. Considering we're in the middle of lap 2 of the MJO 4-6 realm in just the past month and a half I think we've been pretty fortunate. I think there's too much cold air in the pattern for us to have a dominant warm pattern in the east but I think the unfavorable phases has been rearing it's ugly head in the form of storms coming up a bit too far west. The rapid warm up early next week is probably something that's been overdue, and it might not last more than 3-5 days.

 

And the consistency of the storms location, Lower Ohio Valley to Interior Northeast or transfer to the Upper MA Coast, has been pretty amazing. We have had so many since late November, probably over 1/2 dozen, that it is hard to imagine what it would be like if that same thing had happened but with a track through the Lower Tennessee Valley and off the Lower MA coast.  We would be challenging  75" of snow by now.

9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wow!!!

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm down 14 degrees since FROPA. It was 24 before the squalls hit, and it's now down to 10 with some insane wind gusts.

I cannot ever recall a temp drop like what we all experienced today but I am sure my memory is failing me and we had one at some point.

And as to my trash can, I am the dummy who has it sitting west side of house and once it gets knocked over and the lid opened it starts flipping with wind like this.  I am about 10% up a mountain and there is nothing to my west except lowland into Maryland so it is a wind tunnel.  Plus I think this makes me the first trash can post of the day @canderson

I do not have an anemometer but I am guessing sustained is over 30mph here right now with gusts in the 50-60 range.  I just had to walk several yards down to get my trash can back.  It is not just a regular round can it is one of those ~100 gallon boys on wheels and the wind below it about an acre away.  

18 minutes ago, paweather said:

We can enjoy winter for a couple of days but so interesting that this is lining up like the Halloween Snowstorm years ago, someone told me the year but forgot it, where we had that snow early and then winter fizzled. Seems to meet the pattern here where we had the mid November snowstorm and then December was not good, most of January failed, and February starting out not warm.

2011 I believe. 

21 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Euro has a low pressure system around 2/7-2/8 but there is no digging so it tracks well to our north and west.  Euro is actually pretty dry for LSV for the next week leading up to that system.  12z run has Harrisburg reaching 67F on Tuesday lol.

If it cannot be cold and snowy let's enjoy a warm day or two. LOL.  If we do not get some blocking we are going to lose the first 1/2 of February.  It has "seemed" cold this month but we are actually facing departures near 2 degrees + now.  Today and tomorrow will dent that back but starting off February so warm we risk have all 3 months of Met winter being positive departures.

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

FV3 most bullish of NAM/GFS models for Friday with 2-3" in our area.  Other 3 are 1" or less.  Wonder how long it will hold on to this 2/8 storm?  After the Euro comes out maybe someone with access can tell us if that storm is showing up on it?

FV3 has had this storm being more South East twice now. Let's hope it is right otherwise we are in for two weeks of 50's and 60's with rain rotating between slight cool downs. Need something to force those lows south of us. 

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

Eric Horst went on a little Twitter rant about the Harrisburg-area radar hole today. Here's what he said:

@MUweather
The Harrisburg "radar hole"...it's a real thing, especially with Arctic snow showers. This traffic camera (near zero visibility snow) at Harrisburg and the Radar view below are both from the same time! How can it be snowing so hard, but nothing on radar?

@MUweather
I've been talking about this for years...it's flaw in the placement of the radar sites, in that there's not radar coverage below 10,000' in the Capital city of PA. Imagine that! As a result, we can't see these shallow squalls (which are mostly occurring below the radar beam)....

@MUweather
...and in the warm season we can't see low-level rotation (i.e. tornadoes). It's a huge problem IMO, but it's never been addressed. Perhaps some State politicians can look into a fix? A local radar would improve forecasts and safety of citizens...and more!

 

So if one is going to attack Harrisburg from the sky they must stay below 10,000 feet and in they go. 

FV3 keeps trying to bring back that Feb 7th and 8th storm.  GFS will have none of it with temps in the 50's and 60's.  These totals include this coming Friday. 

15 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Ok, well, my squall ended up depositing 0.2" of new snow, which is 0.2" more than I was expecting.  Would have been nice to have witnessed the whiteouts reported by Cash and bubbler to my south.  It never got heavier here than moderate.  Temp continues to drop, now down to 19.6.  Temps out in western PA are about 10-15 degrees colder at the moment.  Looks like the PIT area is around +5.  That stuff is headed right for us.  My point n click is one degree colder for tonight, now down to -2.  We'll see.  The Friday storm is going to ruin our shot at radiational cooling for lows Friday morning, or we'd all probably reach -5 or lower.  I think we still get opportunities for even lower temps during February after the warm spell ends.

It really seemed to blossom as it came through Central Franklin and Adams county.  The 20 dBz blob has doubled in size as it continued south and I suspect we see some accident reports out of Frederick and they get a full inch out of this. I suspect the higher temps here had a role in it.   Here is Frederick right now.

https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=ccffd39d00a000e90056fa36c4235c0a

Tapering off here.  Impossible to measure especially with blowing snow but roofs are covered again so somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2" in a matter of 15 min.  Most impressive thing was the temp...dropped from 26 to 16 in less than 20 min. 

I can certainly see how this would cause accidents.  Road is already covered.  Just took min's. 

White out here.  Can just see the neighbors house....a few hundred feet at the most.  

Temps spiking here as the "squall line" nears.  Up 3 degrees in the last 30 min. 

Warning now covers most in the LSV

Just saw this posted in MA.  Impressive.  Could we see a snow funnel cloud (kidding, sort of). 

Snow Squall Warnings for West Central PA. 

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Arctic front today should bring a good snow squall through the region. This cold & wind is going to be brutal as well.

The 6z GFS is making the Friday morning light snow event a little more interesting, & brings 2-3 inches of snow to most of us.

 

 

Blizz, I would gladly give up this 2-3" if the rest of the GFS, and its 5-6" of rain over the next 10 days, can also be thrown out! 

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Once the rates picked up, the snow covered everything.    The twp had to plow the road.    

Wow, so strange.  We got 2 1/2" and the rates were there but it would never stick here.  I saw webcams down in Hagerstown and it did not stick on those roads either. 

2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Finished with 2.1” 

Glad to see everyone getting snow. 

My YTD is now 21.8”

Curious if yours accumulated on the streets/driveways?  I was at or below freezing the whole event and it would never stick over here.  It was kind of strange.

25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You da man. Nice call. I look forward to your next call for a big one.

LOL.  I had to have some fun with that as I think I put my call up there when you were still not overly interested in this one. 

17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Probably 4. to 4.5 here. Great event. At least we keep it thru Monday then see where we go later next week. 

If you want to go ahead and tell me that I nailed it calling for 3-5 for you that will be ok.  If not, that is ok as well.  :-)

Two fairly reliable reports of 5-6" in Northern York County.  Apparently a band of 2" per hour type rates set up there for over an hour.