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Bubbler86

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    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:


    Thank you


    . Pro

    Here is an interesting link from Millersville.   Just change the date portion of URL for the decade.   Quick scan on the 70's, 80's and 2000's shows 90-100 snowfalls each decade (taking out trace records).  The 90's certainly stands out as having less than 90 snowfalls but the highest total snowfall of any of these decades.

    http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/snow1980s.htm

     

     

     

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, Jns2183 said:

     


    I have some free time today. Anyone have a link to daily rain, snow, temp observations from kmdt and other local sites for the duration of there records?


    . Pro

     

    This is what I use and shows daily records as needed.  I just did not go back and verify my thoughts vs. comparing how winters seem to play out now and how I remember them.

    https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ctp

     

     

     

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

    I know this will not be a popular subject, but it may be possible that climate change is making model performance erratic.  The oceans are warmer, the circulations are changing.  It makes using analogs risky.  The players on the field are changing so the outcome of the game will be different.  I'm not sure the models can account for everything right now.

    I alluded to this possibility before in comparing winters of the past to now...Climate change and winter weather (modeled or actual).   Unfortunately I do not have the data to back up anything but I feel something has changed since 20-30 years ago.  Whether that something also changed 20-30 years before that or we are in a whole new territory, the data would need to be parsed to confirm that.  MDT's average snowfall seems to be near or above average the last 5-10 years but the amount of snowfalls feels less re: We get most of our snowfall in large chunks compared to the frequent 2-6" types snows in the 70's-90's.   This does not just relate to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic either so it is not just an IMBY issue.   Winters in the Southeast used to include frequent rainy periods when systems would form in or near the Gulf and slide over Florida or Georgia and either out to sea or up the coast.  Over the past decade or two it is not happening that frequently anymore and is contributing to what seems like a never ending drought down there though this past summer has softened that a bit.

     

     

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Danajames said:

    The storm track was set up in the Fall and has shown irritating consistency since.  Almost every storm wants to run up the Appalachian chain.  These patterns are very hard to break and I really have no reason to believe it's going to change.  We might catch lightning in a bottle a la the 30" monster storm in 2016 but I doubt it.  We'll have cold shots here and there but overall, I think it is what it is as they say. 

    Without doing a study or verifying it seems to me that we are in the midst of a dearth of the old fashioned Low in Gulf track for several years now.  Not a pattern expert by any means but I feel it is much more rare that we see any activity down there anymore and are having to rely on transferring scenarios much more often than 10-20 years ago. 

    January/February Winter Storm Threat Tracker

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    Thought I read that the GEFS is still the "old" Gfs and the Fv3 wont factor in until later down the road.  I say that because the GFS op is notably different looking at surface and GEFS derived from it, so its not totally surprising that GEFS doesnt have "the look" yet.

     

    I saw a PowerPoint last year that showed a timeline of the "FV3" going mainstream this month but as we have all seen, at least LR wise, verification's have been shoddy so they may have delayed it. 

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    This morning my point n click said my temp would drop to 19 by 5:00pm.  Now, shortly after 4:00 I am down to 23.  Don't think I'll make it to 19 by 5:00, but except for when the sun was out strong a few hours ago the temp has been on a gradual downhill slide most of the past 6 hours.  I've had multiple wind gusts into the mid-upper 20's as well.

    The barometric pressure here bottomed out around 7:00am at 992 mb or 29.30".  That low was pretty strong.  I don't remember it ever being progged to be in the low 990's.  I remember seeing upper 990's.  I guess that played into the further NW movement overall with the storm.

    Wonder what's in store for us midweek after the warmer portion of the storm is through? 

    Kind of looks snowy and icy Wed AM in Central PA.  North and South.  Could be snow two days in a row if the Thursday wave comes to fruition. 

    Central PA - Winter 2018-19

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    So two chances at winter weather during the work week.  Wed Am a surprise but moderate signal for ice....and then watching that same front for a coastal to form Friday. 

    I love chasing these things, when I have time, by watching models and discussing results with others.  I actually use that discussion to help prepare forecasts for a few clients but after last week I felt several bad vibes for bringing you guys into it so I will chase with some others who also enjoy it but should still be around here when it comes to obs time.

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

    That initial push looks to be on the edge of where the heavier bursts have started.  Heavier rates have helped to hold off the mixing but that secondary surge is now pushing into the Mason-Dixon Line.  Curious to see if anyone close to the edge of the mountains like you/cashtown/Carlisle can hold on longer than some of rest of us as areas east begin to mix.

    It is back to mostly sleet and actually appears to be some rain....a few flakes still mixed in.  We are about 1 mile south of Rouzerville just at the base of what the locals call South Mountain though I am not sure if this specific ridge is actually called that vs. the whole range.  Its a great view even if not good for CAD from a storm coming in from the S/W.  

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

    @bubbler86

    we’re still hanging on.    I wouldn’t mind a period of sleet to lock in the snowpack before our arctic blast 

    BECE3F59-26CC-45DA-A720-847526F11D22.png

    Wow, look at the push over York.  The line that switched me before has indeed pivoted S/W a bit.   The longer we stay on the edge of that thing the more we can pad the stats.   I might actually have to go shovel if we get over 3".

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    I do expect to hold on longer, but with changeovers to sleet they usually come up from the south fairly quickly.  I hold on to the cold really long in CAD setups which is great if you want ZR.  I don't mind a little bit of that but would prefer not a lot.  BTW earlier you asked how close I was to the mountain.  I'm about 5 miles south of the base in north middleton twp, and also less than 750 feet from the Conodoguinet.  That positions me in the lowest part of the immediate valley of the creek.

    Ahh, thought you were a bit closer to the the ridges.  There is still some snow mixed with the sleet here so you are good for a bit hopefully.  I hope you get exactly 4".  Max out but keep the total within my prediction for you :-).  With the sleet here I am going down as 2" for my snow total.  It snowed 3/4 of an inch in the last 45 min before the sleet came.  

     

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    I see.  Cash just showed the radar.  It just sucks that any mix is already this close less than 2 hours after the storm really got underway.

    Wouldn't you think that you would hold on for a bit being east of the ridge?  At least a few hours.  The snow right before the line gets there is intense.  Probably 2" an hour if it would only last. 

     

     

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

    Didn't MAG just say it looked like the change line was down in MD along I-70?  I'd think it would be too soon for you to see any mix yet.  (Glad you've reach 2", though).

    I think that was about an hour or so ago.  I am only 1/2 mile from the MD line and only about 15-20 miles north of 70 so it was close to me back then.  You have the better spot for this one.   Radar makes it appear the sleet line is indeed just to my south. 

     

     

    Central PA - Jan/Feb 2019 Obs and Discussion

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    Yeah I'm not sure why were diggin on it.  It was the first to pick up on this.  Gotta say that the GFS seemed to sniff out the track best though (even though I liked its evolution the least).  Hey, we learn.

     

    Yea, its forecast of pushing the low into Erie is going to be more right than wrong if the low does indeed cut through Central PA and over Scranton. 

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