Bubbler86

Just now, daxx said:

Euro snow to mix then rain for southern  counties. Central counties nice thump then mix. Northern tier snow.

So it basically held and supports the warmer GFS and RGEM. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

it would make me giggle for the King to be a bit colder and snowier....

#keeppanicalive

All snow forecasts from the BWS (Bubbler Weather Service) are  subject to update! 

Just now, pasnownut said:

WAA in full effect -  already from storm????

hehe  I'm such a smart@ss

I was doubting my digital but I have a old fashioned bulb that is under a deep overhang and it is almost at 40 as well.    

2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Looks like we're in a CAD at the moment...lol.  Cold stuff still trapped at the surface.  I think CAD will absolutely be in play tomorrow night regardless of what the maps show or don't show right now.

BTW, I'm thinking of lowering my predicted high temp to 35.  Still thick overcast and temp only up to 32.9.

Yea, at 800 feet it can really change the playing field both good and bad.  10 miles to my south it is 35 at HGR.  I had a 2" snowpack this AM and it is 80% gone. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

31 at noon here in etown.  I would have bet the farm (that i dont own) that the calls for 38-40 today would bust.  Nice overcast all morning, deck lifting now, but I think your 36-37 is solid call here as well.  not that it means much in the end, except we have lost little/nothing other than treated surfaces.  Some thought it would be gone.  I guess we have a few hours for that to happen.  Gut says no.

Its already 39 here.  Still overcast just so far south.  LOL.  

I am going to go with some screen names that popped in my head (snow only...sleet and ice are separate)

Mag-8-10"

Carlisle, Canderson, Atomic and  Sauss-2-4"

Bubbler,  Cashtown, Nut, Itstrainingtime, Daxx-1-3"

Voyager-4-6"

wmsptwx-10-12"

2001KX-12-16"

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Yikes...how does it get to that point? Does the primary go well into PA then transfer?

Here is a site where you can look at the panels.  

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

This says it’s valid through Wednesday? Does this include Wednesday precipitation as well?

Yes but non of the post Sunday precip would be snow for PA.  All of this is from the weekend. 

Just now, Voyager said:

Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run.

I guess I have an affinity to track one that looked bad but surprised us.  :-) 

Reaching for straws the CMC is not nearly as warm as some other guidance.  Much more of a classic distribution to the mix line. 

4 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

Not at all and I am here because my forum threw in the towel on this storm and I am on the fringes of this forum. Was primarily focusing on the long discussions about MJO, STS, etc... and what the long range models have 384 days out lol....

This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in.

2 minutes ago, lpaschall said:

I dont trust anything the models put out outside of 36 hours. I have avoided our mid atlantic long range thread as its a roller coaster discussion that has zero usefulness.

Well hopefully I am not offending too many people with my short bursts of model discussion.  We are within 24-36 hours now.  I had a week where I was at my computer a lot so have been having fun with it and trying to keep even keeled through our little to no snow runs, like now, and the more excitable runs. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Don't worry...Horst is calling for another rain storm by midweek! 

0z Euro had a coastal snowstorm for us late week.    That early week system is already a non factor it seems. 

5 minutes ago, daxx said:

I thought the gfs looked terrible.   Not good for a lot of people except the far north.

Yep, unless we get some movement in that LP position this is quickly turning into a non event for us. Still a little time left but would be a terrible bust for the models at this point.  As Nut had been adamant about we really just need that lead Vort to stay 50 miles further south than progged.  Fingers crossed.  LOL. 

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Seems reasonable. (amounts and temperatures) 

If the Euro holds its ground they may cancel the WSW.  I am a huge believer in Cad but you need something pushing the air down the east side of the slopes for it to be a factor and not seeing a lot of cad signatures in the thermal parts of the maps.  Again if we currently had arctic air over us it would be one thing but it is going to be 40 today and above freezing again tomorrow before the precip starts.  Just not a signal for a real ice storm unless the afternoon runs are wrong and our wind direction can be changed more quickly by the low, whether on surface or transfer, being deflected more south. 

GFS is a 2-4" for LSV and then warm at the surface.  35-40

12Z Rgem is still shorts weather.  If you want to see the snow map take a look at a gif of a white painted wall. Well not exactly but just 2-3" for most LSV before it is all washed away with temps in the 40's and 50's. 

Icon snow fall map really questions whether this is anything other than a SECS state wide.  Probably underdone.

1 minute ago, djr5001 said:

That TT 10:1 map looks a little off to me as I don't see anything that supports it printing totals that high across southern tier of LSV even if there ends up being sleet involved.  Kuchera and Ferrier (available with 3km NAM on TT) are significantly lower with totals across that area.  Soundings have York to Lancaster corridor as freezing rain by 8pm tomorrow night.  I have long thought that the TT 10:1 map factors in surface temp in calculating snow totals, have been told that is not the case, but once again it is printing large snow amounts when surface temp is at or below freezing and upper air temps are above 0C.  Front end thump is going to be nice but sure looks to get messy after that because I just don't see the cold air at the surface warming all that quickly to above freezing if even at all (especially around I-81 stretch from Carlisle to east of Harrisburg).  Last image = major yuck

 

I concur with the story behind these maps.  What the models are showing right now is not a snow storm for the LSV.  A few inches, transition to sleet then a "warm" freezing rain where it may be 32 but the rain is falling so fast it is not cause as much damage as if it were 25.  

Wow, icon with amazing consistency.  Even with a trend gif you can hardly tell the LP is at a different place between 6z and 12z.  Going to be front end thump then slop.  

Icon is the same through 24 though Daxx has probably already seen it if he is here. 

Just now, Voyager said:

They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing.

Maybe the laid off IRS people are doing weather forecasts.  We will all owe snow if that is true. 

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yes, but it is inside its "wheelhouse", so it should be gaining some weight in forecasts.

not saying we win, but we may just lose better....

At least the first 12Z model did not ruin the fun of watching the others :-).   And on this point, the Nam has not really changed at a lot since it got within 84 hours.  The GFS and Euro have jumped much more. 

Just now, pasnownut said:

@anotherman thats not necessarily a snow killer if you throw enough sleet on it.  Will be a glacier sunday night though.

 

Definitely not.  If it stays cloudy and only gets to 33 or 34 the roads will be better but we still keep our pack! 

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

Does it go above freezing and for how long?

Yes, for a good 6-10 hours though you never know how CAD will play into that.  We need that first impulse to not get so far north and drag its ugly warm temps with it.